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Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Trabisnikof posted:

Except for not really, since the Republicans will vote for a conservative Dem to shut out the socialist.

If AOC’s district had been in California she might have lost to Crowley in the general rather than defeating him once and for all in the primary. He would have campaigned hard, since the jungle primary means he wouldn’t be turning against the party by doing so.

didn't a ton of KDL's votes come from rural californian conservatives who didn't know who he was but sure hated the hell out of feinstein because are gunz

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Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1061077753942798336

so did denham get turfed after all once mail-in ballots were counted?

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Raskolnikov38 posted:

with how blue AD16 is in presidential elections the local Dems have been pretty loving terrible at unseating baker

that area is historically red, especially given danville/alamo/blackhawk and pleasanton which have all voted republican presidentially within this past millennium. there's a reason richard pombo's old hilariously hideously gerrymandered district included the not-stockton parts of san joaquin county and the tri-valley sans lawrence livermore national laboratory

it doesn't surprise me terribly that a republican could win there

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
malibu should grovel to the city of LA and get in on the LADWP action imo

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
https://twitter.com/theshoetoo/status/1062138347991261184

there's still like 400k outstanding ballots to count in orange county and over 900k in LA county so this is just young kim howling as she goes down for good

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1062148346809176064

and she's probably even more screwed once LA county ballots (diamond bar, walnut, hacienda heights) start rolling in, as well as more stuff from the more working-class parts of OC

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1062157258631434240

:pray:

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 13, 2018

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
by late october i'd started seeing ads tying tuck to trump and devos

also holy gently caress rohrabacher basically rented houses for years on end to turn them into goon caves

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Nov 13, 2018

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1062511233864130560

regarding the assembly, petrie-norris solidifying her lead over harper in the AD that includes a part of CA-45 is really icing on the cake here

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1062510613195251712

young kim's lead down to 0.38% and 711 votes; her finally going down over the mail-in ballots would be some primo schadenfreude given her :qq:-ing about :airquote:voting fraud:airquote:

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Skippy McPants posted:

Suppose that's reasonable. France has fewer earthquakes than we do.


So if Porter manages to eke it out in the 45th, that puts us at five flipped seats, right?

Edit: I guess the 39th might still be in play too? Cool.

CA-39 is looking more and more like a flip as more batches of mail-in votes come in, which is why young kim is :qq:-ing about how counting those ballots is voter fraud

i mean poo poo it was only like a week ago that we thought we missed the 10th and 45th and 39th

fun fact, on another note: we actually picked up a seat back in the june primary centered around oceanside and held by a republican, because this time around two dems and a shitload of republicans ran and the two dems made it to the primary

for whatever reason the dems never contested this seat in 2012, 2014 or 2016

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 05:29 on Nov 14, 2018

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
CA-21 voted for obama and hillary by 10% plus margins, but from what i gather valadao is personally popular in the district to the point where he won the open seat by a landslide even as obama ran away with it in 2012, and apparently is still hanging on in 2018

also this used to be dennis cardoza's district, and you can still see STOP THE CARDOZA CREATED DUST BOWL signs driving down the 5 even though cardoza hasn't been in office for over five years at this point

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 05:50 on Nov 14, 2018

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
i heard valadao got in to begin with because his opponent in 2012 was just so bland and lovely, that area democrats were grumbling about it even two years later

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

i can't wait for tuck to lose again


Sydin posted:

Her :qq:-fest when she loses is going to fuel my depleted soul.

:same: her :qq:-ing about voting fraud is going to make the schadenfreude over her loss even sweeter

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1062796884648120320

:nallears:

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
san fran public schools are closed tomorrow because the air is that loving bad, i gather

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
i hope young kim enjoyed being at the freshman orientation :byewhore:

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
just for a blast from the past, and now that cisneros is p much the winner, here's some investigative journalism from david dayen two days before the june primaries in CA-39:

https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1003797748766797824
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1003797749534343168
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1003797750910078976
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1003797753707687937
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1003797754814926848
https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1003797755704139777

all this shady poo poo and a million bucks pissed away for nothing :laffo:

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Nov 16, 2018

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

CopperHound posted:

God twitter "journalism" is so hard to read without some background. All I got out of it was some right wing fuckface spent a $1m running as a democrat (in an attempt to crack the democratic vote?) and failed (to get two republicans on the november ballot?)

that's p much all we need to know in this case. and now the seat he ran for flipped, so lol

sorry about the post, but the thread unfurler wasn't working because this tweet thread was 5 months old

v yeah that was a huge worry back in spring, that the dems would gently caress themselves out of a house majority by splitting the vote in the jungle primary in all the competitive CA districts and letting two republicans slip through

that only ended up happening in CA-08 but that's chud desert country anyway

Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Nov 16, 2018

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
there's a reason a lot of folks here shitpost about gavin being an android

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
even for like, orange county, i'd seriously wonder if politicians like rohrabacher and walters and kim came up through the entrenched county GOP machine, and ran losing campaigns because the machine they relied on all this time completely and utterly failed to adapt to the shifting ground of the county (demographically, politically, socioeconomically, etc), and that these losses (plus the dems picking up at least one more seat in the assembly in the greater irvine area) are a step in dismantling the machine

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

FMguru posted:

"One silver lining for California Republicans in 2020: there aren’t many competitive congressional districts left for them to lose."

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1065647724832403456

:yeshaha:

hopefully we can turf ling ling chang in 2020 after that recall bullshit, among other seats in the state senate up in 2020

and there's a few state assembly seats which suddenly look ripe for the picking (the one around little saigon/huntington beach and another one in san diego county are within 3 points of flipping at the moment)

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

themrguy posted:

Yeah what’s the deal there, Bakersfield’s a fairly large city, so I would have thought it would have some defense against people like him just due to the nature of urban areas. Is it just CHUDopolis?

fun fact, kern county was one of the counties where obama won less than 20% of the white vote in 2012

and mccarthy's district is the white side of bakersfield, oildale (which has a reputation as klansville from what i gather), and overall is majority-white, so.

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
"goyo" :thunk:

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
I'm pleasantly surprised at how hard Newsom came swinging out the gate honestly

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
https://twitter.com/1KatieOrr/status/1088497639367135232

so i guess this guy jumped ship to the dems after winning reelection by a rat's rear end hair in his suburban san diego district last november

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
it was p lol that the dems picked up the 76th (oceanside down to solana beach) by default because like a gazillion republicans ran there and the two dem candidates were the ones who could make it past the june primary

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Yeah, the San Diego exurbs are the natural habitat of unenthusiastic Republicans. It's where the military-industrial workers, middle management, second amendment obsessives, and poor military men live.

looking it up isn't AD77 like, the rich suburbs like carmel valley and poway

duncan hunter country is like, everything north and east of it, consulting a map

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
ah okay (huh, i had a few undergrad classmates from rancho bernardo)

klantee it ain't, sounds like

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
yeah it's weird times

like five years ago could anyone have foreseen that issa's district would flip, or that AD76 would flip once the dems actually ran candidates there? hell, scott peters even looked vulnerable in 2014 iirc and his district runs from coronado up to a lot of AD77

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Trump couldn't even manage to get more than a plurality of voters in Coronado (except for North Island) and a few precincts there went solid blue.

That's loving Coronado, a population of rentiers, touristfuckers, and squids (retired and active duty).

im shocked there's people who actually live in coronado, having only been to like, the hotel

and also that a few precincts there actually went blue

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
https://medium.com/@rmehlinger/cupertino-mayor-build-the-wall-cb34fb3cc9fa

Cupertino, being :yikes: as gently caress?? Quelle surprise

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Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

Jaxyon posted:

So California has had more rain so far this year than last entire year.

This is what we saw during rain season 2017 too and then 2018 came

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