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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Oh hey, look what I found, the Buk used to down MH17 in Russia being driven around by Russian troops.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

They didn't mothball that thing and hide it from sight? That takes balls, especially after that report comes out tomorrow.

It was filmed in a column heading to the Ukrainian border a few weeks before the attack, not after. Probably should have done a better job painting over all the markings, not just obscuring the number.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Sandweed posted:

Belingcat is full of them in the comment sections too.

I'm seriously considered just removing the comments section, it adds nothing to the posts, just a place where people can argue with each other and make idiotic counterpoints against the post that never pan out, mainly because they've not bothered to look at it properly

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Remove the comments section. It adds nothing and prone to abuse.

It's literally just 50% people claiming all the images in the piece are photoshopped, and 50% everyone bitching at each other.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I was on the BBC World Service talking about MH17, it's at 4:45 here.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

OhYeah posted:

This is very cool. I'm wondering why more news sites are not reporting this story because it has major implications regarding the whole crisis in Ukraine. The whole body of evidence, as you said, pretty much points in one direction: the Russians.

Supposedly Ukrainian and Dutch sites have been covering it a lot, and I'm doing a piece for Sky News main bulletin tonight that's supposedly going to be very whiz-bang, plus I've done another interview with BBC and CBC news today.

In fact, literally as I type this post, the second BBC interview was posted online, here's a copy on Soundcloud.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I'll be on Sky News in the UK in their 7-9pm broadcast literally calling Russia murderers and liars.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Sep 9, 2014

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Supposedly Russia Today just attacked me, part of which was falsely claiming I was on the dole, anyone happen to see it?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's my contribution on MH17 on Sky News
https://skynews.grabyo.com/g/v/iWzhIQxAoll

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Gunktacular posted:

You had mentioned something earlier about using social media aggregation software for intelligence purposes like this and you were going to work with a company to develop some of these processes. Any updates on that stuff? Seems like a very interesting potential technology.

I've helped out CrisisNET with their platform, that's very much about crunching data and turning it into something usable, and I'm currently working with Right Now Media on a proposal to create a site based on their Sport Right Now site, which allows social media accounts to be tagged in a database, then sorted on their front end. They've done it for football teams, I'm doing for Syrian opposition groups, to bring order to the 1000s of Syrian social media accounts.

Just saw the Russia Today clip, it was pretty funny really. They've got Bryan MacDonald giving his "expert" analysis, he deduces I'm on the dole because "they're" (Bellingcat) are on Twitter all day, and implies some nefarious funding. The Russia Today host then goes on to suggest "citizen reporters" are a "dangerous trend, to say the least", and Bryan adds "anyone can say anything when they're anonymous, it's called trolling I think". I hope they get the clip on YouTube so I can share it, it's really peak Russia Today.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Gunktacular posted:

How are you dealing with translating the vast amount of material you go though? Do you speak/read russian, or do you have some people helping you?

A lot of the Russian stuff is being done by Russian speakers, so it's not an issue, and I can ask them whenever needed.

Here's the Russia today clip, starts at 5:39

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDvCzzrYLM0&t=339s

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

El Scotch posted:

Well, are you on the dole? :allears:

(Who is Bryan MacDonald? In-house mouthpiece?)

This guy, he's been to journalism school, and is therefore a Proper Journalist.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Majorian posted:

This is some of the most bizarre word salad I've ever read. Am I misreading it, or is the author basically just saying, "Nuh uh! That's not proof!" to Brown Moses' actual, tangible proof? Like, without elaborating on why he or she thinks it's not proof? Because the rest of his/her argument seems to hinge on that assertion.

It's reassuring that this appears to be the only level of debate they can reach. That, and claiming everything is photoshoped.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Also, they keep going on about how I published my piece before the MH17 report. So what? I'm not writing about anything that's discussed in the report, and I'm sure these media organisations are aware of the concept of publishing stories at a time when there's the most interest in the subject. Their faux astonishment such a thing is possible is comical.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Elukka posted:

The Su-25 claim is hilarious, particularly the new idea that it shot it down with its gun. This is a plane that is not only slower than the 777, but also has a maximum altitude about 3 kilometers below MH17's cruise altitude in clean configuration with no weapons on the pylons.

The maddest nose up trick shot head on from kilometers away at a high closing speed, with the whole burst hitting.

:allears:

Don't forget, the Dutch report also shows the holes in the flight deck floor point downwards, so it would have to have been flying above it at a pretty sharp angle.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

A couple of weeks ago we identified what appeared to be the same Buk linked to the downing of MH17 inside Russia a few weeks before July 17th. We're now looking for every image we can find of Ukrainian and Russian Buks so we can check if there's any other Buks with markings that are anywhere near to being the same as the ones on the MH17 Buk to establish the likelihood it's sheer coincidence the markings on the two Buks we've spotted match so well. There's more details here for anyone who wants to get involved.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

As I mentioned earlier, we've been crowd-sourcing our investigation of the Buk that downed MH17 on Checkdesk. One eagle-eyed reader noted something we had missed.



The top image is from a video filmed in Russia showing a convoy heading to the Ukrainian border, showing the Buk we believed was seen in Ukraine (shown in the lower image). What we didn't notice before is both images have the same damage in the same position just above the treads, and this is further confirmation that these are in fact the same vehicles, and that the Russian's supplied the Buk used to down MH17.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've emailed them already, hopefully they'll actually reply, and not thinking "a blog? pff".

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Just been sent this short video, comparing the Paris Match Buk photo to the image of the Buk sighted in a convoy in Russia heading to the Ukrainian border a few weeks before the downing of MH17. Watch the markings and the damage on the rail above the tracks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9pqjzGyYxw

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

vegaji posted:

I'm 99% sure that I've seen this connection made before by someone on Twitter, but I can't remember when/where. May want to search through some of the @vpkivimaki, @djp3tros, @galandecZP, @Conflict_Report, et al timelines to double-check. Unless you're just re-presenting info with the fading video (which is very cool looking)

It's something we've been working on for a few weeks, so those guys have been discussing it on Twitter, but this is the best way to show it's a perfect match.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

vegaji posted:

Gotcha, makes sense. I'd love to see an updated video compilation with all your new evidence you're digging up through Bellingcat, working from the previous one with the Buk route+videos/photos in Snizhne/Torez/etc

I've actually recorded a piece for my Kickstarter rewards that cover the entire thing, but the posts are all linked here. I'll also be lecturing at King's College War Studies department about this on Friday as well.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Brown Moses posted:

Just been sent this short video, comparing the Paris Match Buk photo to the image of the Buk sighted in a convoy in Russia heading to the Ukrainian border a few weeks before the downing of MH17. Watch the markings and the damage on the rail above the tracks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9pqjzGyYxw

Someone put this together which I think makes it very clear it's a match.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

AFP is reporting Ukraine will apply for EU membership in 2020.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Arglebargle III posted:

I'm really not seeing it. It might be a good idea to have other BuKs in the comparison because they eye has nothing to compare these to. Do all BuKs look like that? I don't know.

I've been collecting images of Buks, here's some of them, 1, 2, 3. I've looked at more than are in those albums, and I've yet to come across any with the same markings, or the same pattern of damage above the tracks.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:32 on Sep 25, 2014

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Elukka posted:

I think the damaged part on the Buk is just a bit of crumple on the rubber skirt, which seems like it would happen easily, though having the same pattern of crumple in the same spot is still notable.

Note you can see it matches across the entire skirt as well, not just one part of it. There's other images of Buk with the same sort of damage to the skirt, but it's all in different positions.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Aric Toler has been looking at these on Twitter, this is good

quote:

Okay, now this is just bizarre. This document details an information campaign that talks about the Darth Vader candidate in Ukraine.
LDPR wanted to create a viral campaign for Buratino, like the Darth Vader campaign (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buratino )
LDPR wanted to run the most bizarre viral campaign ever, making a Tolstoy character a Ukrainian political candidate
Have to say that I do LOVE that passage from the anti-Darth Vader political campaign being planned
They wanted to make a political campaign for a Tolstoy character, get it viral,then have someone actually change their name to get the votes
They were going to have someone legally change name to Buratino to get the joke votes and then align himself with the separatists. INSANE.
The best part is that Buratino is Pinocchio. They were going to make a deceitful political campaign out of a lying puppet.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Speaking of Russian-backed assholery I've just published a new case study on Bellingcat where we've found several videos of the convoy with the Buk linked to the downing of MH17 and located all of them inside Russia, establishing the route the convoy was taking, details here.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Brown Moses, is any of this research being used by airline investigators?

Without being more specific, I expect so.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This Russian programme on MH17 recently arranged for a jet to fire a 30mm cannon into parked aircraft to prove MH17 was shot down by 30mm cannon fire, not a Buk (starts 7 minutes in)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HDR32KEAns&t=422s

Here they helpfully point out the entry holes, big, round, and consistent in size



Then the damage from the broken up round exiting the aircaft



And they helpfully provide this comparison shot



Problem is, when you actually look at the damage on MH17 in detail, it's obvious using the above example that 30mm cannon fire wouldn't do what's shown below; entry points of an inconsistent shape and size (this shows two sides of the same panel which was positioned above the cockpit windows)


Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

vegaji posted:

For reference to everyone who doesn't know, Mamontov blaimed the Russian LGBT community for the Chelyabinsk meteorite and Kiselev is the guy who said that Russia could turn USA into radioactive dust, and said this (c/p from Wikipedia):
In one televised commentary, he said "[Gays] should be prohibited from donating blood, sperm,... And their hearts, in case they die in a car accident, should be buried or burned as unfit for extending anyone's life,"[2] suggesting that the internal organs of homosexuals should be burned and buried rather than be accepted for organ transplants.

And he was appointed by Putin as head of Rossiya Segodnya, so this sort of as official as news gets in Russia.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

eigenstate posted:

The clip is actually from Vesti Nedeli (News of the week), Kiselev's program: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiPYWmm-wjs It's the preview for an upcoming film called "MH-17: Interrupted flight" by Arkady Mamontov to be aired Oct 11 at 6:55pm, so set your DVRs. :) It even has a guy wielding a pointing stick in front of a whiteboard filled with every conceivable crash scenario. I guess a whiteboard is really convenient if you needs to change something fast later. :)

I'd be interested if this was actually broadcast. In the last couple of days it seems the official Russian line is moving towards it being a Buk missile that did it (fired by Ukraine, naturally), so I'm wondering if it went out.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It reminds me of the Russian's response to the August 21st Sarin attacks in Damascus, there narrative was based on whatever was the latest theory on the internet, resulting in their announcements becoming increasingly contradictory and confusing. It seems they're doing the same thing again with MH17, but this time they've got an official criminal investigation to contend with, one that's not limited in what it can and cannot say like the OPCW investigation into August 21st.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Does anyone know what RTL Late Night is like in Holland? I've been invited on as a guest to talk about my MH17 work.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Namarrgon posted:

It's a talk show. The hosts invite people who have been in the news, could be journalists that covered some recent story, celebrities or political figures and they talk about it. Tone is light-hearted but still serious.

If you can access it, you can watch an episode to get a feel for it;
http://www.rtlxl.nl/#!/afl-35-301978/886e1938-9431-3686-9983-581f5640e4ad

It's in Dutch though, I don't actually recall an English episode but I guess obviously they have them.

e. Uh, you probably figured this out already, not sure what else to say, do you have any more directed question?

So it's something people actually watch, rather than some obscure thing?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

If you understand Dutch Nieuwsuur has just posted a pretty lengthy piece on Bellingcat's work on MH17 here, which should also be on tonight's show assuming there's no news events that bumps it off the show. I don't actually know what they are saying beyond the bits I'm talking about, so any translation would be good. I note at 1:50 they visit the spot in Torez where we geolocated the Buk launcher too, cool to see that on film finally.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Oct 16, 2014

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The town at the end is Snizhne, the street sign they show is the same place we said the Buk was spotted, and the same style of buildings are visible in their footage (not to say it's the exact same place)

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

There's a half decent translation of the piece here.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

German Intelligence reportedly to Parliament earlier this month they have evidence pro-Russian separatists shot down MH17, although they also claim the Buk was likely captured from the Ukrainian military, which I disagree with.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The Dutch among you will be able to see me talk about our latest MH17 work on RTL Late Night this coming Wednesday, which will be followed by our new MH17 report on around November 10th. We've collected more evidence the Buk photographed and filmed on July 17th came from Russia, plus more information confirming the rebels were the ones on control of that Buk.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

TeodorMorozov posted:

Your efforts were amazing but also useless.
That's only because SBU chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko told on air what MH17 was downed by Buk-M.
There are no Buk-M on Russian military service. This modification of Buks is Ukrainian model ;)

Yes, it's unfortunate we live in a world where the words of one man can override all other evidence.

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