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Majorian posted:You're right, of course, that it would help Russia's relations with its neighbors if it were to, you know. Take responsibility for its part during that era. But like I said, that's just how Great Powers are sometimes. It has nothing to do with being a Great Power and everything to do with nationalism and inferiority complexes.
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Sep 6, 2014 09:34
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timma85 posted:Those articles didn't seem to differentiate between birth rates of ethnic Russians and the birth rates of other minorities in Russia. Everything I've read seems to show the Muslim minorities birth rates are higher then ethnic Russians and the authors of these articles did not seem to specify if they meant ethnic Russians or simply having a Russian passport = Russian. Russian minorities especially the Muslim Russians in the Caucasus area probably have little loyalty to the current regime. 
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Sep 6, 2014 17:15
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There was a war, heavy metals are left over from that war and people still feel the effects of it. It's a terrible thing but I don't really see what your point is. War is bad?
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Sep 7, 2014 09:17
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my dad posted:... The thing is there's never going to be a way to conduct a war that doesn't hurt someone. In the Gulf War the US war machine rolled in and bombed all things military which worked great... except we killed 30.000 grunts and we had images of the Highway of Death lingering on the news cycle. Hmm. The Kosovo war comes about and someone got a bright idea - guys we don't need to carpet bomb grunts we'll just bomb stuff until the Serbian government rolls over. Of course that leaves the army to do whatever while the civilian population get a front row seat to hell and more civilians are killed than military personnel. Riiight... Neither of those strategies are good. They probably seemed like great ideas until after the fact because people are idiots and we make stupid decisions. We also haven't used them since then - fewer Iraqis died during the invasion of Iraq than in the Gulf War because a lot more attention was given to making people surrender instead of just bombing anyone wearing fatigues and we didn't bomb TV stations or bridges in Libya as far as I know. For what it's worth it seems to be pretty well accepted by most sources I can find that cluster bombs were used by the US, UK and Netherlands. If NATO is denying it pretty much everybody else is treating it as fact. I don't remember clusterbombs being a topic back then so I can only surmise that people didn't think of them as a Bad Thing at that point but I don't have a problem with calling it a war crime in that the implications of using them should be obvious.
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Sep 7, 2014 16:20
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Malleum posted:And during their trial period there was a policy of integration. The West made a concerted effort to win over the hearts and minds of the people. Admittedly, it was easier in Poland than it would be in Russia, but why did the west's attempt to educate the Russians against the dangers of autocrats fail? Because Russia directly worked against the efforts to support NGOs and political parties, locked up the media and doubled down on nationalism unlike those countries. The West has consistently complained every time a journalist or political opponent was imprisoned or murdered and Putin just don't give a poo poo. You can't affect positive change in the face of this. The only thing we could have done differently would be with a more forceful response to those issues which would be better in hindsight but that definetely would not "win over the hearts and minds of the people". It would have been a great tool for the propaganda machine though.
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Sep 8, 2014 08:25
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Gantolandon posted:That's what I were talking about - smart Europe would try to make military adventures a costly affair. Europe is impotent and unwilling to deal with anything not related to domestic unemployment rates and standard of living though.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:31
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Peel posted:Your sentence 'NATO is a defensive alliance except when it comes to the occasional 3rd world conflict' was intended to dismiss the instances of American and European aggression as clearly irrelevant but instead it rather underlines the point. NATO isn't a threat to Russia because Russia is powerful. Weak countries aren't so lucky and are regularly bullied and pushed over by America or European countries. So the obvious defence is to make sure you stay powerful enough in relative terms to make aggression impossible, and you may not want to place all your trust in nuclear weapons to do so. And antogonizing Ukraine, starting a civil war there and ultimately preventing Ukraine from benefitting from the European market and institutions strengthens Russia in which ways?
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Sep 14, 2014 15:17
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Peel posted:Secures Sevastopol (this is a really big one), prevents the entry of another country to the Western sphere, and for a bonus humiliates America and the EU on the world stage by calling their rhetorical bluff. Probably not worth the diplomatic and economic price, especially since they probably weren't going to lose Sevastopol, but it looks like they read Maidan as a coup/takeover and panicked. Sevastopol is strategically irrelevant - the Bosporus is controlled by NATO and with or without it Russia still got access to the Black Sea. If they lost access to Sevastopol they would have to expand another port - but so what? Strategically nothing changes. Preventing Ukraine from entering the Western sphere does not strengthen Russia. You could argue that it weakens the West but Ukraine is so poor relative to the EU that in the short to medium term it is economically irrelevant. Ukraine got the GDP equivalent of Kuwait except without oil and nobody would argue that trading more with Kuwait is particularly important to the EU as a whole. To be clear: the EU is not losing anything except for a very long and costly nation-building project that may or may not eventually turn out to be a benefit in 50 years assuming you could somehow convince Europeans it would be worth pursuing which is questionable. Humiliating the West does not strengthen Russia. It strengthens Putin and his brand of nationalism. Are those things good for Russia and Russians in the long term? I doubt it. You could argue that it weakens the West but truth is Europeans are not overly concerned with either Russia or Ukraine. Indifference is not a humiliation - it just means they don't care partly because they don't consider Russia a credible threat. This is not a hotly debated topic in bars and cafés across Europe. Politicians care... kinda... but not really if it costs anything. This whole business is really rather inconvenient! In any event weakening the West does not strengthen Russia. The West controls roughly 50% of the worlds GDP and CIS less than 4%. Keeping Ukraine away from the EU is not in any way going to impact this even marginally.
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Sep 14, 2014 17:49
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OddObserver posted:Lots of reports from Western journalists about armor, trucks and 122mm towed cannons of "unknown origin" moving through separatist controlled parts of Donetsk. AP alone saw 80 trucks. The movement was so obvious even the OSCE noticed. The only unknown at this point is how Ukraine will eventually feature on maps.
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Nov 9, 2014 01:50
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Mightypeon posted:Any additional constraint on the hegemonic USA is good, as long as that constraint has a lower body count then the USA does. The hegemonic USA presiding over the most peaceful period in human history. Oh the hegemony! But sure let's hope for a multi-polar world where states can systematically dismantle smaller, weaker states at will - it's worked so well the last 10.000 years so why gently caress with it now.
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Nov 9, 2014 17:21
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:This oil price business is very interesting and much more complicated than I thought. You ain't seen nothing untill fracking in China takes off 
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Nov 14, 2014 01:27
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Cat Mattress posted:Look at the destination URLs before clicking? pffft that's like reading the manual to your toaster
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Nov 15, 2014 21:38
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OhYeah posted:Can't figure this guy out. Is this some kind of reverse psychology, cleverly juxtaposed trolling? Or is he simply posting while under the influence of illegal substances? Putinism isn't illegal 
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Nov 19, 2014 13:51
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Mightypeon posted:In the event of a serious clash with Nato, the Mistrals would be rapidly sinking ducks. But when Russia embarks on its next adventure of slicing sections off a poor neighboring state they won't be using French ships to do it.
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Nov 25, 2014 19:03
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eigenstate posted:The Russian newspapers today are running stories about nationalism returning to Belarus, which doesn't help but piss off Russian imperialists something fierce. Traditionally, Belarus positioned itself as the successor to the Belorussian Soviet Republic and suppressed Belorus language and culture in favor of Russian. Now, apparently, this is being reversed and not without blessing from Lukashenko. So uhm... what's up with Belarus? I thought it was practically Russia-light and firmly on Russia's side but Lukashenko doesn't seem very supportive of Putin atm. Have they always had ambivalent relations or is it recent events that made Lukashenko antsy? Is there a chance that Russia's expansionism could eventually push Belarus into the warm, titillating embrace of the Union
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Nov 27, 2014 08:42
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Mightypeon posted:I actually read it here: You're over-estimating the amount of fucks that are given about this.  Let's be clear - in the West this is more or less just a political clusterfuck that your average citizen doesn't have any stake in. It's not driven by popular demand or activists or deep concerns in the electorates. A country that doesn't affect me is dismantling another country that doesn't affect me. It's a Bad Thing like so many other things in the world but the effects it may have are abstract - treaties, exports, imports, prices, deficits etc. meh. Ebola is scary though! If Russia or Ukraine were economically and culturally more integrated in the EU it would be a different matter but they just aren't. When Putin targets food exports he's hurting a sector of the economy where a few percent of the population are employed and it's not exactly a key demographic or vital economic indicator anymore - it's not going to cut it. If he had been able to target industrial production or the service sector it would have been a very different matter. As it is there's won't be a popular pushback to end the sanctions. If they are removed it's only because pragmatists in Germany are willing to sacrifice principles for economic gain and the electorate won't care enough to hold them accountable.
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Nov 29, 2014 15:52
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Ardennes posted:The destabilization of the Ruble has far more to do with oil prices than anything else, the sanctions themselves were quite modest and haven't really touched how the Russian economy itself functioned. However, the majority of Russian exports are energy related, oil itself is 55%, Russia is a petro-state and a sharp if not vertical dive for oil prices basically is sapping the country of its income. The unilateral import bands may have some effect but my personal experience it was relatively light but oil and the decline of ruble is going to have a much more drastic effect. Yeah just to be clear the sanctions mainly target technology transfers to the oil industry, loans to a few big banks and some douchebags that can't visit their condos in London anymore. If that's all it takes to tank the Russian economy it would have happened anyway eventually. The sanctions by themselves would have shaved a little off Russian growth but that's about it.
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Dec 14, 2014 12:58
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Tevery Best posted:Different strokes for different folks. Some people you get by claiming you're being kicked when you're down, others by saying you're operating independently, effectively and by your own rules. nah it's rampant nationalism and the realization that your society kinda blows. Russia is strong and awesome - see! - so the lack of an awesome standard of living must be the doing of someone else. It's standard modus operandi of nationalists everywhere although usually it's an internal group that takes the hit.
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Dec 15, 2014 05:53
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Just a reminder that this was a thing Russophiles were blabbering about a few months back:https://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/tag/united-russia/ posted:These days the Hungarian government is considering the possibility of converting some of the Hungarian National Bank’s reserves to rubles because of the precarious situation of the dollar. 
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Dec 15, 2014 17:38
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kalstrams posted:Wait, there are loans in foreign currency, in Russia, that are to be repaid in loan-currency? I had to look it up because it sounded absurd but yes, yes there is.
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Dec 16, 2014 09:01
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Tezzor posted:The Iraqis have suffered and are currently suffering worse than the Ukrainians, as a result of a US-led invasion. Should we cheer also at the hypothetical collapse of the American economy? If the housing bubble had burst during the invasion of Iraq and a bunch of countries were imposing sanctions on the US further exacerbating the problem there would indeed be a fair amount of glee.
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Dec 16, 2014 20:58
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Celexi posted:I'm i really reading some "we shouldn't crush them so hard" or "kick them while they are down", well they(Russians) elected the government responsible for this whole mess, so maybe they could do something about that - and no one is really kicking them while they are down, considering they continue murdering people in eastern Ukraine. Sure but the Russian people is clearly still heavily influenced by their experiences during the Cold War. They have outdated and warped ideas about how the world works and until that changes this is what we have to work with. The only thing that's going to change Russia for the better is for them to become more integrated in the world economy. 20 years ago there was still some animosity towards Germans here in Denmark. Not like they would be assaulted in the streets or anything but it was just in the national consciousness that Germans were dicks - because of ze war! Now that is a non-issue because we study, work, vacation and live in Germany - and other European countries. We can't cling to historical grudges or otherize when going on a weekend trip to Berlin is normal, at least not to the same extend. The ideas about "greatness" and power changed along with this integration because we're no longer in a strained or adversarial relationship with our neighbors. It's more about how my standard of living and way of life measures up to my neighbors and trying do it as well or better. Not the ability to bomb Libya or Iraq without opposition. Contrast this with Russia. Economically and culturally they are still not integrated to that extend. Their economy isn't geared towards the kind of complex cooperation you get in advanced economies and I'm certainly not seeing a lot of young Russian backpackers in the European hostels, if any at all. They can rant about NATO and the West only because they don't realize nobody here cares, at all. When Russians talk about "losing Ukraine to Europe" it's a baffling worldview because the EU isn't related to power in that way. It's just a bureacracy that's sometimes convenient.The flyovers, while disconcerting, are also nonsensical in this context - you have power in a metric we don't value very highly. If Russia is to become a working part of Europe values and worldview of the Russian people must change and isolation will not be helpful. It would only reinforce the notion that it's Russia against the world and everybody is out to harm it which in the long run is bad for their neighbors in particular and the rest of us in general.
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Dec 17, 2014 08:36
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Karmalis posted:Again this does not mean that you can do nothing. My Imaginary Girlfriend pointed out very accurately that as an individual you can start doing small things. When you can't go large scale, go small. Start a discussion amongst your friends, family, colleagues. Find people of the same mindset, create a small group of intellectual exercise. With luck, you'll grow. If it doesn't work, you won't be at a loss. Talking to people can't hurt but it's still just your impression of the world vs theirs. You're not going to get very far. The only way to really change things is if the lived experiences of Russians and their personal interactions with the outside world changes. Think of it in terms of entrenched issues in your own society - are you likely to change a lot of minds having abstract conversations about homosexuality? What if people instead see or interact with openly gay people. Talking won't hurt but that's a very, very long and slow process. We need Russians to study in our universities and live in our cities. Then change will come whether Putin and the nationalists wants it or not.
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Dec 17, 2014 09:56
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Rookersh posted:Isn't the problem still going to be the separatists? Last I checked you can't join NATO while in the middle of a conflict, because NATO doesn't want to get involved in that poo poo. They're specifically stating that it's a very long term prospect.
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Dec 23, 2014 16:38
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blainestereo posted:Look, not to deprive the proud Estoinan people of their ethinc originality, but Estonian land has been a part of one lovely expansionist empire after another for as far as history goes, basically. I mean, it's bad that the first attempt at independence you had ended so abruptly and it's good you've finally got it back for good in the 90s, but whatever repressions the USSR imposed on you were domestic USSR policies, not hostile actions upon an independent state. Not really. Why does it matter if it were domestic policies or it were more lenient than in other places? Ehtnic cleansing isn't defined as something only foreign powers can do or as the most brutal forms of genocide.
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Dec 25, 2014 16:21
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Cuntpunch posted:Stone, regrettably, falls roughly into the camp of "People who think that because America has done lovely things, that anybody America dislikes must be doing something right." What's ironic and sad is that he is outspoken about how he disapproves of American meddling in Latin American politics, but apparently supports Russian meddling in East European politics. They're roughly the same thing - puppet governments propped up by violence and fear and supported from abroad by a powerful state. That and some people just root for the underdog by default. America is the dominant power so anything that challenges it must be good - no need to define what exactly the alternative would be and how it would be preferable.
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Dec 31, 2014 02:36
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Scaramouche posted:In honor of Eastern European New Year I'm going out to a party with 10-12 Russian guys aged 25-30. I may not survive. 
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Jan 1, 2015 04:44
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Smerdyakov posted:The US has a nasty habit of implying/promising we'll support anyone who rises up against their oppressive government, then either not coming through at all or being arbitrary with the amount of support we give and at what point. This same dynamic is playing out in Ukraine: either step up and say Ukraine will be in NATO by 2017 and throw them billions in military aid, or shut up about it and make the Ukrainian government negotiate peace with Russia one-on-one. This middle path of vague threats and promises but not actually doing anything is bad for everyone because it distorts everyone's perception of the balance of forces.  Moreover no promises have been made to Ukraine apart from "the EU will sign a trade agreement". The only "help" the West offers is the IMF terms which has been very clear from the beginning. Nobody is coming with a big bag of money. Beyond moral support Ukraine is more or less on its own and we offer only a long, hard path to the EU in... 15-20 years. Maybe. In spite of all this the Ukrainian people seem determined to go down that path. If they want to negotiate with Russia they can do that and they always had that option - nobody is preventing it. When Yanokovich were about to sign with Russia the EU shrugged and walked away... until Yanokovich decided to start shooting protesters and he was deposed. It's a thing that happened but we didn't make it happen.
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Jan 2, 2015 20:46
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Typo posted:Why is it irrelevant?
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Jan 6, 2015 02:59
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MeLKoR posted:Policeman grabs her wrist "It will be world war III!" "Ok, we do world war III, no problem."
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Jan 9, 2015 15:40
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Disinterested posted:The telling thing isn't shooting down the plane, it's what you were doing before and after shooting it down. Pretending it wasn't you and falsifying evidence that the other side did it is the true sign of dysfunction.
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Jan 10, 2015 13:11
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Ardennes posted:Also, Ukraine is going to be burning off the rest of their currency reserves probably some time in Spring at the current rate (therefore you may have true hyperinflation if that happens). Soros' point is that in part the EU needs to seriously put in a lot of funding to bail Ukraine out with that as a possibility or otherwise the IMF does it but with far harsher terms which may not be enough for Ukraine. 
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Jan 14, 2015 01:41
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My Imaginary GF posted:sounds like some grocery stores in russia are going to be well stocked this week 
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Jan 21, 2015 10:44
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Baronjutter posted:Plus they know no one in the west is going to do a drat thing to stop them. They can kill as many Ukrainians they want and the west will keep ignoring the situation. They'd have to shoot down a few more civilian planes full of non-slavs while tweeting about it to get the West's attention. 
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Jan 23, 2015 19:29
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Mightypeon posted:You are aware that the Seperatists have repeatedly stated (post Illovaisk) that their artillery was "skirting" and occassionally "crossing" the Russian border in order to either A) restrain Ukrainian counter battery fire or B) make Ukrainian counter battery fire kill Russians in Russia and thus make a serious Russian internvention likely?
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Jan 24, 2015 12:27
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Illuminti posted:I'd imagine it's probably mercs of some stripe but it begs the question who is paying them.
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Jan 26, 2015 11:32
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Rincewinds posted:You mean, if it is Sweden or Finland who gets second most medals in Winter Olympics. 
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Jan 27, 2015 13:06
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annapacketstormaya posted:A coalition of the willing nations of Russia, Belarus, The Donetsk/Luhansk People's Republics, Syria, the nations in Transcaucasia that don't hate Russia, and the central Asian CIS members.
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Feb 2, 2015 01:01
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Ardennes posted:To be honest Belarus doesn't really have anywhere to turn, their economy is heavily interconnected with Russia and much of its markets. I don't think Western European is going to be battering down their doors for tractors. Batka is between a rock in a hard place but I doubt Belarus will or can really leave the Eurasian Union at this point. edit: :P I know he's not going to "leave" office - but he's not immortal so at some point someone will replace him. Bates fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Feb 2, 2015 |
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Feb 2, 2015 03:08
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Ardennes posted:Or an currency and an economy that isn't self destructing. Well we might want to wait with coming up with any substantial solutions to the economy until we know on what side of Kiev the borders will be are drawn. I mean the Ukrainian army could collapse and the separatists could just keep trucking west regardless of whatever grand plan Putin has in mind. It's not the most likely scenario but it could happen - we just have no idea how long this can go on or how bad it's going to get. Emergency funding to keep people from starving and literal trainloads of bombs, food and medicine. Debt and reforms and such can wait.
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Feb 8, 2015 07:44
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