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Taerkar posted:Eh, remember though that any GOP candidate has to make it through their primary to get to the general election. That means that unless things change they'll pretty much have to at least say the right things to the fringe, if not outright embrace it. Neither of those actions (especially the latter) plays well in the general election. I don't think this is some inevitable thing, this forum way overestimates how much they have been 'forced' to do so for the past 2 presidential elections vs. the strategy of swinging to the right being seen as the optimal one to do. They weren't stupid in '12 - they knew Obama was still pretty drat popular outside their true believers so there wasn't much chance for the center. At that point the only choice you have is to swing to the right and hope to beat them on turnout. All considered, Romney did pretty drat well considering the incumbent advantage, Obama's campaigning skills, and the state of the country (economic recovery was 2-3 years underway by then). Romney simply wasn't going to win without a huge fuckup from Obama that never really happened. Summary: Looking to 08 and 12 for how the republicans are going to go forward is probably going to steer you the wrong way. 08 was essentially impossible to win and 12 was really close to so. We could easily see a repeat of 2000, except the conditions when Obama leaves will almost certainly be worse than when clinton left. I mean poo poo, there was 4% unemployment after 8 years of a dem president in 2000 and they still managed to lose. Forums Terrorist posted:So what's up with the Permanent Republican Majority thing, I thought demographics were dooming them to a slow lingering death There are certainly demographic problems, but they are far off and things could change in that time which makes them irrelevant. Say the millennials turn out to be a lot more conservative upon hitting 30 then previous generations or 3rd+ generation hispanics swing to the right. For now, turnout makes all the difference and the dems got crushed on the last couple offyear elections. Dems need to look hard in how to change this - only offyear in recent history they have done well on is 06 and that's more on bush than the democrats being any good. Failing to do so gives the republicans a huge senate advantage, 2/3 of it is elected on the offterms.
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Nov 10, 2014 17:01
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I'm not convinced at all that millennials will be a very powerful leftward force once they get older. Sure they'll keep social liberalism, everyone loves gay people and weed. Economically, it's really not there. Young people voting in droves for Obama was mostly a function of Bush hatred and a neat flashy advertising campaign with excellent web presence focused on a superstar than any actual focus on the issues or left wing beliefs. Not much different than how boy bands were/are promoted to these age groups. This is exactly why this group is non-existent during the midterms. You have to focus on a bunch of different races and can't just promote one star to gather around. It's also lot more boring/wonky and millennials simply don't have an attention span. In addition to that, young people are forming their adult identities far later than any other group. This group is going to evolve politically in very unpredictable ways that will look very different from previous models. Probably a lot more libertarianism- I'd imagine that wing of the republican party will take over in the next 20 years or so, with the religious branch becoming more and more irrelevant.
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Dec 1, 2014 19:53
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computer parts posted:Millennials are less white and that alone will tip the scales, regardless of what Wendy Davis's campaign may tell you otherwise. True, but this is a racial analysis. Joementum posted:As I said, I'm skeptical of assigning too much weight to generational explanations for political leanings, but the question here isn't whether there will be a mass politic of liberal millennials in 15-20 years, but rather whether Obama will inspire a wave of future Democratic politicians who fill up the state legislatures and Congress in the same way that Reagan inspired, say, Paul Ryan. Joementum posted:As I said, I'm skeptical of assigning too much weight to generational explanations for political leanings, but the question here isn't whether there will be a mass politic of liberal millennials in 15-20 years, but rather whether Obama will inspire a wave of future Democratic politicians who fill up the state legislatures and Congress in the same way that Reagan inspired, say, Paul Ryan. And the answer is no. The Reagan revolution is analogous to what FDR did, Obama isn't even in the same galaxy as those two when it comes to how their admins played out. I mean even a superficial analysis shows how silly the comparison is. Obama's 2012 victory was nothing compared 1984, and it's incredibly unlikely dems win 2016 with the same margins Bush won 1988. Clinton largely continued a lot of their policies, so it's fairly easy to argue even Clinton was a remnant of the Reagan Revolution. Obama has had, and will have absolutely no effect on the republican party by comparison. Even he has largely been constrained by it. I don't doubt there will be obama inspired politicians, of course there will be. But there's no reason to suspect something like this happens: Joementum posted:that there are more Republicans of prime electable age right now because they came up during the Reagan revolution, while potential future Democratic candidates during that same period turned away from politics. No potential republican candidates have been turned away because of Obama, hell the exact opposite has happened. I think the comparison comes from a complete lack of understanding of why we would have less dems now. The reason why they turned away was because Reagan was right. That is, you need to look at the short term: the economy vastly improved, hostages were freed, the soviet union collapsed. I mean jeez, it's not hard to see why it became really loving to argue leftwing politics. None of this has been the case under Obama. The economy has marginally recovered (except most people don't believe it), we still have lovely wars, obamacare is loving awful or good depending on who you talk to, and the economics that lead to the collapse weren't invalidated in the slightest. That's treading water, not a revolution.
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Dec 1, 2014 21:39
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Aliquid posted:Millennials won't throw their full heft in a presidential election until 2020, so until then it's a little hasty to predict where they'll change. The youngest is still only 13, keep in mind. And this is why generational analysis is fairly terrible at prediction, someone born in 1985 has far more in common with a gen X than someone currently 13.
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Dec 1, 2014 21:44
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Captain_Maclaine posted:While you may have had a (bad) argument with regards to Nero I guess we can nevertheless add "history of the Roman Empire" to the long and ever-growing list of poo poo about which MIGF is staggeringly ignorant. Uh I'll have you know that migf wrote for 3 newspapers in 2nd century Rome, he's sort of an expert here.
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Dec 3, 2014 00:03
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Ninjasaurus posted:So you guys would've rather the Dems not win majorities during Dean's two cycles as DNC chairman if the choice was between a Blue Dog and a Republican? Hmm okay. I mean, like I've said several times, the Dems are worthless anyway. Problem is if you can't control them you dilute your message and look like a fractured party. The republicans are having a similar problem with the tea party contributing to several losses where republicans should have won.
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Dec 3, 2014 00:25
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So that's where he has been. Hope he runs+ wins.
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Feb 20, 2015 23:10
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Epic High Five posted:Speaking as a farther left Democrat than most and native Hoosier, I would absolutely cry with joy if Bayh got the seat over another shitlord Tea Partier who will do nothing and use statewide influence to gut the last of the good things left in the state It's really weird how many lefties looked at the tea party and decided retard purity tests was the way forward.
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Jul 12, 2016 04:48
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