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deoju posted:The GOP would have to be careful how they play the "too old" card against Clinton. They rely on older voters who wouldn't like to hear that a 70 year old shouldn't be trusted. Actually, they tried that with McCain and it was a total flop. It turns out that old folks, more than anyone else, know exactly what being old does to you and how it could effect a presidency. PupsOfWar posted:Joe has gotta know he can't win. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 08:17 on Nov 12, 2014 |
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Nov 12, 2014 07:17
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I forget if it was Erick Erickson or Moe Lane but one of the two big Red State (big, media-driving Tea Party website) guys absolutely hated Huntsman for organizing his campaign while ambassador. He considered it near-traitorous that someone would be working to undermine the President while in a position like that. Whether he would always react that way or whether those beliefs were triggered by an existing hatred of Huntsman I don't know but if I remember correctly Obama was very mad about it too, for similar reasons.
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Nov 13, 2014 05:06
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He had Brownback splitting the religious vote with him back in 2008 before Sam dropped out. The same could happen again, neither candidate can win while the other is in the race so logic would say that one of the two would see the writing on the wall and drop out a few months before the primary again.
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Nov 14, 2014 12:43
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AYC posted:Goddammit. Have you considered not voting, I think you would do well with it. That way you can at least feel pure since you are NEVER going to find a party that supports everything you like while unequivocally opposing everything you dislike, let alone one that actually has a shot at changing everything.
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Nov 15, 2014 20:02
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pathetic little tramp posted:Exactly. I mean, what's even the reasoning of these four? Nevada is a hellhole hemorrhaging jobs because it turns out gambling isn't a sustainable economy when other states legalise it, South Carolina is South Carolina, Iowa at least has some agricultural leanings, and New Hampshire is see previous post. They are all very different states and, aside from the fact that none of them have populations who work in resource extraction (well, Nevada is debatable but at least in the Dem half of it those votes are easily counter-acted by service workers,) do a pretty great job of representing the country as a whole. If I were to have to pick four small states I might make a change or two but they actually did very well picking what they did. And they do have to be small states, you mention California and Texas but the whole point is that you want candidates with less money to be able to compete and the way they do that is old fashioned barnstorming, impossible in the larger states.
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Nov 15, 2014 20:56
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GlyphGryph posted:Well, I mean, technically, yeah. You can. Same way you make the other states not move earlier (threaten to ignore all or a good chunk of their results) Candidates would still pay attention for the publicity (see: Florida 08 where it actually went all the way to the convention before deciding that the delegates would be allowed to be seated.) Just as important is that those two states in particular (South Carolina too sort of but Nevada is a joke) have populations that know and understand the voting process very well and are comfortable with it. They could conceivably move their election to Tuesday next week and everyone would already know what to do. That's given them a real leg up whenever another state has tried to unilaterally move into their turf.
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Nov 16, 2014 04:03
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De Nomolos posted:VA would be a great place for the parties to hold early primaries so that they can get the candidates in there and hopefully have them test their own GOTV efforts on the State Senate elections in 2015. Virginia is interesting in that includes part of Appalachia, lots of government/white collar workers and urban blacks and military folks while still also maintaining every unique demographic that South Carolina brings to the table (rural black people and southern whites.) With so many government workers the state is also more educated on the "logic" of governing too, they'd make for pretty informed voters. I could see you make a pretty compelling case for switching SC out for it. Indeed doing so would also excise the only "non-swing" state to currently get these privileges, though SC's Democratic electorate has always been significantly different than the state as a whole- to the point that informed people never really bring this so-called bias up in conversation. The only problem is that its big enough to start pushing out smaller/poorer candidates and is only set to grow even bigger in the future. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 06:11 on Nov 17, 2014 |
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Nov 17, 2014 05:54
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You can feel free to color in Kentucky, its not a swing state even in a blowout year. Minnesota is far more of a swing state. Of course if you are going to leave even the "likely" states grey then there is no point-they take up far too much of the map.
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Nov 22, 2014 18:07
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TARDISman posted:Excuse you, MN's been blue every election since Nixon. Well excuse you right back, the state has been trending conservative for decades and is no longer the liberal paradise it once was. It was pretty blow-outy in 2008 and 2012 (10 and 8 point wins respectively) but was only 51/48 Kerry in 2004 and 48/46 Gore in 2000, though you can thank the third parties for that odd result. edit: Realistically speaking a "toss up state" list would probably look like this, assuming completely generic race with no homestate advantages: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado and maybe Nevada though that one is probably D favored at this point. Everything else can be said to lean to one side or another. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 01:43 on Nov 23, 2014 |
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Nov 23, 2014 01:38
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I find Brown a more credible candidate than Warren, not sure why people think she'd run, let alone get the nomination, let alone win the general. Anyway, I think the Democrats would have to be stupid to pick NYC. There's just too much potential for poo poo to go horribly wrong there. Philly and Columbus are both fine choices. Though NYC could have the added bonus of seeing how many pissed off people there are in the crowd if Clinton isn't picked.
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Nov 25, 2014 00:44
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Chokes McGee posted:Where's the birth certificate He's a purebred so I'm sure its around somewhere.
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Nov 25, 2014 01:43
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Christie is far and away the best politician in the Republican field, and the most adept at tapping into the raw id that drives the modern republican party. Unfortunately or fortunately he's also a giant (lol fat) walking stereoytpe of the Yankee rear end in a top hat and I don't know how that will play outside of the northeast. Christie utterly fails the "looks presidential" test and I'm not talking about his weight. People might love Governor rear end in a top hat but there's no way those same people would let him be president.
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Dec 3, 2014 02:42
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McCain just about almost nearly tied it up if you were reaching for it. But that was his post-convention bounce and those always fade. The fact that it couldn't even give him a little bit of a lead meant that he was basically hosed. And bear in mind, that is his whole convention, not just Palin.
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Dec 4, 2014 06:58
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I think that Jeb and Mitt are both reluctant, only looking at the race because there is a gigantic Jeb/Mitt shaped opening with the various crazies being weak candidates even at the primary level. If one of them runs the other will back off. Maybe they'd back off for Christie too but he seems like a bit of a wild card and probably won't take their candidacies into account when he decides whether to run himself.
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Dec 5, 2014 13:35
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Chantilly Say posted:So to be clear, your argument here is that if the Republicans put a Hispanic person on the ticket, Hillary should choose a white VP so she can pick up votes from people who won't pull the lever for a person of color. Don't bother paying attention to the "it needs to be this race and gender" people. Thats not how vice presidents have been chosen in the past (aside from Palin and Ferrarra who were both gimmick picks designed to save sinking campaigns) and I see no reason for that to change this cycle. If you want to know who Hillary is going to pick you should look for the following things. The person is not hated (or hatable) by most Americans, is not ridden with scandals, can give a decent (or at least not bad) speech, has policy views which line up with the nominee's and is liked by the nominee. You can discount the "he needs to be from this state" people too because they haven't been chosen like that for decades.
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Dec 11, 2014 12:50
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Fried Chicken posted:by the time the debates rolled around last time, hadn't every candidate claimed that God had spoken to them directly and told them to run? Or were there holdouts? I can't imagine Mitt saying that because he wouldn't want to call attention to his Mormonism.
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Dec 13, 2014 11:53
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Joementum posted:Here's a photo you'll see in a 2024 attack ad. No one is going to remember who the hell Micheal Brown's dad is in a decade. Also Kirsten Gillibrand isn't gonna be running for president.
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Dec 14, 2014 01:36
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Rygar201 posted:Will you Toxx this? Why bother, no one is going to remember any Gillibrand toxx even four years from now.
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Dec 14, 2014 11:16
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Fried Chicken posted:Huh, so that's where GRRM got the idea It was pretty common for naval powers to have one. Carthage's was probably the most famous but really they survived as a viable defense in some form right up to World War II.
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Dec 21, 2014 01:16
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Apollo_Creed posted:So what is the most likely path to the republican nomination for 2016? Aside from Perry, who might not even run, which of the current non-moderate candidates are even viable? They'll have to settle again, the only question is on who.
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Jan 2, 2015 08:12
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Fulchrum posted:Paul approachs viability. He really doesn't. He'd be lucky to crack 200 electoral votes.
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Jan 2, 2015 09:17
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Huckabee and Rand do not draw from the same pool, I don't think Cruz does either but he's been around for so short a time that I honestly don't know. Likely he doesn't have much constituency at all and probably is not going to run.
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Jan 4, 2015 06:01
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Fulchrum posted:That unskewing the poles ever got any traction suggests you're giving them too much credit. That was an argument from the base, Republican candidates (aside from Romney, who needed people to be optimistic) basically ignored it. The left did that same thing this year with Sam Wang. Admittedly there was more push back but at the same time the basic event was the same for both sides. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Jan 8, 2015 |
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Jan 8, 2015 02:54
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Fulchrum posted:I repeat - the backlash against Charlie Crist for shaking the Presidents hand, and the subsequent replacement with Bat Boy. Crist did not get dumped for Scott, he got dumped for Rubio. Remember, he opted out of running for a third term in order to run for senate instead. It was only after he lost that that he went independent. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Jan 8, 2015 |
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Jan 8, 2015 02:58
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shadow puppet of a posted:I am thrilled at the prospect of typing 'Piyush' for a few months. Now that Mitt is back in itt, its a veritable dream team of bad candidates. This must be what a normal person feels like preceding a big college draft. I am thrilled at the prospect of you getting run out of D&D again like you did last time after making a string of really obvious fake posts about how you were excited about Herman Cain and didn't understand why people didn't take his candidacy seriously. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 05:30 on Jan 13, 2015 |
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Jan 13, 2015 04:56
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baw posted:A nice blast from the past about the Romney/Huckabee rivalry in 2008. I remember that ad! A gay friend of mine was super excited to vote for Huckabee because of it and immediately liked the guy. I didn't have the heart to tell him...
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Jan 14, 2015 06:17
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Gen. Ripper posted:I have to wonder if this deluge of 2016 GOP candidates has anything to do with Citizens United shifting the power balance towards the moneyed men, etc. and creating a bizarre hybrid of the modern primary system and the conventional politicking of days past. I think there is a lot of remorse that they'd sat the "winnable" 2012 out and don't want to be caught flatfooted again. Remember though, 2012's weak cycle was not the rule historically. There have been strong cycles and weak cycles as far back as modern primaries go. I don't think we'll have as many "qualified" candidates this cycle as we had, for example, in 2008 for the Democrats or even Republicans.
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Jan 14, 2015 06:55
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joeburz posted:A woman who's election season claim to fame was personally castrating an animal. A woman who's election season claim to fame was personally being Bill Clinton's wife. And that worked in New loving York, so tits to Iowa I guess.
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Jan 21, 2015 03:54
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joeburz posted:I'm sure people would be more interested in hearing "First Lady ___"''s opinion than someone who was calling for her experience in castrating as hog as something relevant or useful in politics. But anyways your point is still dumb. She was also a State Senator and Lt. Col in the National Guard. It wasn't all nut snipping.
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Jan 21, 2015 04:13
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Lets not beat around the bush here, if McCain won in 08 it wouldn't have mattered what his health was like because there's no way he'd have won in 12. But then there was no way he was going to win 2008 either so...
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Jan 26, 2015 07:22
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FAUXTON posted:It's probably because Cruz is a pie-faced fascist shitheel and nobody wanted to run afoul of media laws. Cruz doesn't strike me as being fascist, he's a different kind of fool.
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Feb 9, 2015 03:32
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computer parts posted:The character of Brian actually predates Family Guy. Oh wow, he goes all the way back to... the Family Guy pilot. Seriously, it might have a different name but thats what you posted, it even shares a lot of the same cutaways as the first official episode (drive-by arguments, etc.) quote:I kind of agree the right has one semi-palatable candidate.
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Feb 11, 2015 05:13
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Its too bad though, I remember some slutty costumes at my college's Halloween. I definitely understood where he was getting the joke from. Alas, the "wonders" of social media.
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Feb 14, 2015 03:07
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Fulchrum posted:The midterms are meaningless for overall trends considering how severely every single Democratic demographic's tunrout was depleted. Hell, they managed 10% of the black vote, instead of their usual 0.02%, simply cause of so few black voters. 10% of the black vote was actually historically (so 80s to 06) much closer to the norm than the <2% they had been getting in the Obama elections. It probably won't be in the future though.
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Feb 15, 2015 08:30
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ewe2 posted:How significant is the Hispanic vote to the primaries now? Is Rubio representative enough, and/or the Republicans clueless on how to appeal to that demographic? Are the Democrats much better? Is my intuition that they are and the Republicans useless good enough or is it more complicated? It is pretty much meaningless in IA, NH and SC and incredibly important in Nevada. After that who gives a gently caress.
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Feb 15, 2015 18:33
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Obdicut posted:Do you have anything to demonstrate that this is true? Totally willing to believe you, but it's very counter-intuitive. Its historically proven to be the case when one side has its field all sown up and the other has a competitive primary. For instance the only time where McCain was polling anywhere near Obama was after he had won his nomination fight but Hillary still had a shot at beating Obama. There's tons of keep lower level examples of this being true too, including a few where the primary occurs so late that the competitive primary winner is unable to reconnect with his primary opponent's supporters before the general election. Keep in mind too that Hillary Clinton is basically a known quantity while the Republicans aren't. For instance I made a Scott Walker reference at work the other day (we were visited by Trek representatives and I was coming up with ways to piss them off) and one of the guys I was talking to did not know who he was. At this point for Jeb Bush the poll results were probably more akin to finding the answer to "do you want W to come back?" than what it was actually asking.
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Feb 15, 2015 18:46
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Lockback posted:Obama's approval ratings have been trending up and are generally decent/average for a 2nd term president. He won't be a pariah to run from for 2016. Things are really looking up for him but two weeks is a long time in politics, let alone two years. Who knows what will happen in the future. If Jeb needs more clarification on that I am sure he can ask his dad about it...
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Feb 16, 2015 02:32
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HW would be really interesting, assuming he isn't already dead by that time. I don't know if they'd go for a pre-recorded video or stick him up on stage live and hope he doesn't physically look awful. Anyway, I don't think that either Bush family member would be asked to headline a night as HW has just been uninvolved in politics for too long and the party would rather not tie W to Jeb (or whoever it is that wins the nomination) at all if possible. I honestly don't know what either of the Bushes would have to say either, W could talk about faith or commitment in the face of adversity (aka unpopularity) I guess.
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Feb 16, 2015 04:44
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I imagine that a DNC speaking slot is like the only speech that he won't be allowed to show up late to, too. Suck it, Billy, you're going on when advertised this time!
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Feb 16, 2015 15:54
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There'll have to be someone hispanic, the question is if you want to go hard on immigration or not. If not then one of the Castros, if so then there's probably a ton of choices. Unlike Joe I don't think that Kamala Harris will get too much time. Certainly not a headliner.
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Feb 17, 2015 04:01
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