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Again - little Miss Hip Young Conservative Libertarian is in her early 40s. That's quite some "Youth" movement you got there, conservatives.
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# ¿ Feb 25, 2015 23:53 |
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# ¿ May 10, 2024 12:29 |
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Look, I'm not saying all gay people should be rounded up and put to death, but I'm also not saying they shouldn't be. *The angelic spirit of King Solomon floats down from heaven, places a glowing crown upon my brow*
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# ¿ Mar 5, 2015 21:12 |
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Why wouldn't the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary? I don't see any numbers that show here being particularly unliked in any significant corner of the Democratic electorate, the fact that she has white skin will give her a boost in Greater Appalachia where Obama's white support tanked, and the electorate will be 3-4 percentage points less white than it was in 2008. Even if she runs a bad, back-to-the-1990s neoliberal campaign I don't see it hurting her too much - the guy who won in '08 did it on the basis of promising to bring Red and Blue America together and heal the breach and move us forward together and all that bargle. Hillary has a chance to mobilize large numbers of non-political or weakly partisan women into voting for her. The window for the traditional Republican coalition to win the presidency probably shut for good in 2008; there just aren't enough white people in the electorate to propel a Republican candidate to 270 electoral votes, barring some sort of outlier event (Watergate-scale scandal, Great Recession pt. II, Dem coalition split and spoiler candidate, etc.). And none of the potential Republican nominees seems like a world-beater, either - not even the putative members of their A-tier (Bush, Walker, etc.). The most likely thing that would keep Hillary from taking the oath of office on 1/20/2017 would be the emergence of a serious health issue, which is my biggest fear right now. FMguru fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Mar 9, 2015 |
# ¿ Mar 9, 2015 00:52 |
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Fried Chicken posted:From one of the leaks from a "Clinton Insider", Tim Kaine is at the top of the list.
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# ¿ Mar 9, 2015 17:49 |
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Radish posted:If Ryan had grabbed Biden by the hair and slammed his face on the table repeatedly those same people would have been pumping their fists in happiness. They don't care about "meanness" it's just they know in their hearts their lameass candidate got beaten clearly and fairly and they had to rationalize it somehow that Biden somehow cheated or was rude just like how Obama clearly got elected through underhanded tricks they can't quite explain.
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# ¿ Mar 12, 2015 16:48 |
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ewe2 posted:What...when did Fiorina turn up in this, I missed this. Things are that bad huh?
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# ¿ Mar 13, 2015 20:31 |
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Joementum posted:There's some evidence that Palin ended up helping McCain by turning out more of the base, but it's very difficult to discern any impact in these things.
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# ¿ Mar 14, 2015 05:41 |
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Cigar Aficionado posted:The Clinton's aren't a dynasty. The Bush's are. Hopefully the left will be able to push back on that false equivalency. At least if someone start yammering about the Clinton "dynasty" you can take that as a signal to ignore anything else they might have to say and move on.
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# ¿ Apr 6, 2015 02:57 |
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site posted:Poor Rand only has 205 YouTube subscribers vvv: FMguru fucked around with this message at 03:00 on Apr 6, 2015 |
# ¿ Apr 6, 2015 02:58 |
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Necc0 posted:So how about Hillary endorsing Warren, huh? That sure is a thing. She seems to be angling early to define this election's theme and I'm actually kind of liking the direction she's taking it.
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# ¿ Apr 17, 2015 00:12 |
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Sgt. Anime Pederast posted:How did Rubio get so popular among republicans? I thought he said a pro immigration thing once and they decided they hated him. 2) The Republican primary voting pool is dominated by purity-obsessed True Believers, but there are still a lot of GOP voters out there who just want a winning candidate. They chose McCain in 08 and Romney in 12, after all 3) Walker and Bush are making very weak first impressions of themselves (and Christie's ship is sinking like the Lusitania), so the not-crazy Republican vote is rapidly warming towards Rubio 4) By contrast, there are a lot of True Believer candidates in the mix, which leads to their support being fragmented and spread across a half-dozen goofballs (Carson/Huckabee/Jindal/Paul/Cruz/etc.)
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# ¿ May 6, 2015 13:36 |
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Bush hasn't run for office since 2002, he's rusty as hell.
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# ¿ May 14, 2015 19:48 |
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ElrondHubbard posted:Like Ron Paul, Bernie has attracted the fanatical and often obnoxious loyalty of many first time voters / internet schmucks who have proceeded to annoy the hell out of everyone with their bizarre overconfidence, contemptuous / venomous attitude toward other candidates + their supporters, and general lack of understanding of how politics works in the US. There is of course a plethora of non-obnoxious, reasonable, and informed individuals who support Bernie, but they end up as collateral damage when the backlash hits against the former group, in this case being likened to Ron Paul fanatics.
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# ¿ May 15, 2015 19:55 |
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:Judging by this thread and the US Pol thread, yes. Also, Fox News says bad things = Clinton's awesome/smart/cool/etc.
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# ¿ May 27, 2015 20:46 |
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Carly-mania - catch it!Talking Points Memo posted:
One commenter compared her to Malory Archer and that seems just about right.
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# ¿ May 28, 2015 00:33 |
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Poll time! And yes, they are kinda important even this early because they determine who is and isn't allowed to participate in the GOP debatesQuinnipiac posted:There are five leaders - or no leaders - as Republican voters look at likely GOP candidates in the 2016 White House race, with no candidate above 10 percent and 20 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. quote:In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent of American voters to 42 percent for Paul and 45 percent of voters to 41 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:
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# ¿ May 28, 2015 15:16 |
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Speaking of polls, here's an interesting one (from Gallup) showing the shifting social issues landscape.
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# ¿ May 28, 2015 17:49 |
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GoutPatrol posted:Polygamy: Its catching on!
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# ¿ May 28, 2015 17:56 |
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Joementum posted:Don't worry. June 16th is gonna be YOOGE.
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# ¿ May 28, 2015 20:39 |
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Alter Ego posted:Her campaign rhetoric would suggest differently--she's gone about as "eat the rich" as I've ever heard Hillary go. The cynic in me says that she's doing it to crowd Bernie and O'Malley out early by co-opting their economic positions, but it's nice to hear.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 17:22 |
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tsa posted:His first election was fairly lefty / populist economically, it wasn't till he got into office that he started swinging to the right. He ran on raising taxes and expanding government spending. Then he got in, Greenspan said "" and his tune changed pretty quickly.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 17:37 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Shifting the overton window and the topics under debate. Occupy was a success in that it got income inequality to essentially replace DEFICIT BAD in the media, and Bernie's candidacy has similar potential to reshape the debate.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 18:04 |
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computer parts posted:What are the notable realignments prior to the 1960s? 1896 McKinley 1860 Lincoln 1828 Jackson 1968 Nixon/Reagan Southern Strategy 2006/08 Obama Coalition
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 18:54 |
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Jackson Taus posted:Normally in these circumstances, losing the White House 4 times in a row would lead a party to reform, break up, or re-align. We saw the Republicans do basically that under Nixon (Southern Strategy) and the Democrats do that under Bill Clinton (Third Way).
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 19:06 |
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Jackson Taus posted:The way I see it, they kind of have. The difference is that whereas you and I think that they either need their own Bill Clinton (to move them to a more palatable center) or another Nixon (to find a wedge-issue to realign them demographically), they've come to the conclusion that they need a new Reagan - someone who is a fierce advocate of their existing values in their most extreme form and who triumphs by selling their existing values to the public. The true believers on both sides routinely overestimate the public's level of support for their values - just as many of us here are convinced that America either supports our issues or would support them if packaged decently, hardcore Republicans believe that the only thing stopping Americans from embracing conservatism for all time is a failure to message it properly (or a conspiracy theory). In a sense, both sides are correct - when you distill either platform down to just basic core value stuff it's all Motherhood-and-Apple-Pie and relatively unobjectionable. Like nobody is going to say that "economic freedom" or "a moral society" are bad, but they object to policies like "abolish the FDA" and "give Christians the right to discriminate" that grow out of those core values.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 20:16 |
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Captain_Maclaine posted:The thing that gets me is how much since 2008 the GOP has focused in on its messaging, rather than the message itself. Time and again we hear GOP figures going on about how they need to retool how they communicate their vision to the parts of the electorate that don't vote for them, rather than spending much, if any, time examining if that vision actually holds any real appeal for those outside their eroding base. The media empire they've built is really harming them. No one wants to step in front of the 24/7 Fox/Drudge/Limbaugh conservative rage machine to try and get it to tone itself down or move to the center on a couple of issues. That 2012 election autopsy report was viable for about 15 minutes before the machine tore it apart; poor Rubio tried to push for a change on immigration policy and he got consigned to the Outer Darkness for the last two and a half years. Why risk your comfy Wingnut Welfare sinecure on a suicide mission? FMguru fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Jun 2, 2015 |
# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 20:35 |
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comes along bort posted:Nah he did it the old fashioned way taking advantage of an intraparty rift to build a support infrastructure. FMguru fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Jun 2, 2015 |
# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 20:52 |
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Jackson Taus posted:To be fair to Republicans, it's possible that they simply can't pivot while the demographic transition is ongoing. Like until white votes hit some threshold where they're an even smaller portion of the electorate than they are now, it could be the case that ditching an advantage in the white vote to compete for minority votes is a bad call. Like a decision that makes sense when non-whites are 35-40% of the electorate (in the 2020s or 2030s) doesn't make sense when they're only 25% of the electorate. As a Democrat, I'm delighted. I saw what the Republicans did to themselves in California chasing the nativist vote, and I'm delighted that they're doing it nation-wide. The Millennial generation is the largest one ever in American history, and they're doing everything they can to piss it off in order to appeal to their aging, shrinking, literally dying white Boomer base.
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 21:24 |
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Joementum posted:Jeb is the "undisputed jobs champ", according to Jeb
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2015 22:48 |
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Luigi Thirty posted:I mean, the man bankrupted a casino.
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# ¿ Jun 4, 2015 16:17 |
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Zikan posted:I don't think any number of image consultants can save a guy who thinks
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# ¿ Jun 4, 2015 21:59 |
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Intel&Sebastian posted:The fact that Hillary recognizes what a giant win this issue is makes me feel a lot better about her campaign. It completely baffles me that Dems didnt run with this. "voter fraud" is such a flimsy defense against something soooo easy to sell and, more importantly, the right thing to do.
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# ¿ Jun 5, 2015 22:35 |
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Ah yes, the first two steps on the road to political success 1) Don't raise any money or resources 2) Disassociate yourself from any large or even medium groups of people who might organize to support you This guy has it all figured out.
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# ¿ Jun 6, 2015 19:24 |
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Zwabu posted:If I recall the Romney doc was made by a friend/supporter and was specifically an effort to promote and rehabilitate his image so of course there was plenty of access. I'm sure it was intended to build up his cult of personality if he won with the backup purpose of humanizing him and promoting his image if he lost. It was planned as a record of a triumphant campaign, but once Mitt lost the election, the film makers were left with a giant pile of footage and had to come up with another plan. Lots of documentaries start as one thing and end up (by necessity) as something completely different. It's one of the challenges of the form.
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# ¿ Jun 7, 2015 18:13 |
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Gyges posted:Because they know Bernie isn't going to win. They didn't really support Obama over Hillary until he showed he could actually win. At least that's what the last black guy I asked said, so I'm sure that's where the hivemind is at. Hillary is a known quantity, she's almost certain to win the nomination and very likely to be the next president, so what exactly are they supposed to gain by backing Bernie?
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# ¿ Jun 7, 2015 22:47 |
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EugeneJ posted:The blacks need people they can trust
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# ¿ Jun 7, 2015 22:50 |
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Gyges posted:Clearly it's those sexy pants suits.
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# ¿ Jun 7, 2015 22:56 |
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Zelder posted:Man I can't wait to tell my mom and family and friends that us poor black people are just sheep getting hustled by the church
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# ¿ Jun 7, 2015 23:06 |
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Cythereal posted:I thought he established that Jeb was the dumb one when he was caught flat-footed by a reporter asking him about Iraq and whether he would have done what his brother did. Being "the smart one" compared to Dubya and Neil isn't exactly setting the bar sky-high, but still, Jeb's total lack of lightness on his feet and bland, forgettable, zero-charisma presentation has been shocking. Some of it is rust from being out of politics so long, but the rest of it...can any Florida goons who remember his governorship tell me if he was always this bad?
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# ¿ Jun 16, 2015 01:05 |
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# ¿ May 10, 2024 12:29 |
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Your Gay Uncle posted:I remember the old Bloom County books my uncle gave me mercilessly trashing Trump and that was 20 years ago. Are there really people in 2015 who not only take him seriously but think he should be President?
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# ¿ Jun 16, 2015 01:46 |