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FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Again - little Miss Hip Young Conservative Libertarian is in her early 40s.

That's quite some "Youth" movement you got there, conservatives.

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FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Look, I'm not saying all gay people should be rounded up and put to death, but I'm also not saying they shouldn't be.

*The angelic spirit of King Solomon floats down from heaven, places a glowing crown upon my brow*

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Why wouldn't the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary? I don't see any numbers that show here being particularly unliked in any significant corner of the Democratic electorate, the fact that she has white skin will give her a boost in Greater Appalachia where Obama's white support tanked, and the electorate will be 3-4 percentage points less white than it was in 2008. Even if she runs a bad, back-to-the-1990s neoliberal campaign I don't see it hurting her too much - the guy who won in '08 did it on the basis of promising to bring Red and Blue America together and heal the breach and move us forward together and all that bargle. Hillary has a chance to mobilize large numbers of non-political or weakly partisan women into voting for her.

The window for the traditional Republican coalition to win the presidency probably shut for good in 2008; there just aren't enough white people in the electorate to propel a Republican candidate to 270 electoral votes, barring some sort of outlier event (Watergate-scale scandal, Great Recession pt. II, Dem coalition split and spoiler candidate, etc.). And none of the potential Republican nominees seems like a world-beater, either - not even the putative members of their A-tier (Bush, Walker, etc.).

The most likely thing that would keep Hillary from taking the oath of office on 1/20/2017 would be the emergence of a serious health issue, which is my biggest fear right now.

FMguru fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Mar 9, 2015

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Fried Chicken posted:

From one of the leaks from a "Clinton Insider", Tim Kaine is at the top of the list.

Really without knowing for 100% certainty who the GOP candidate will be you can't really guess who will be brought in to shore up support for the ticket.
I figure it'll be whoever provides the most perceived electoral advantage a couple of weeks before the convention. Is there a swing state she needs? Then she'll put that state's governor or senator on the ticket. In trouble with a key demographic? Boom, added to the ticket. Concerns about her age? Abracadabra, an energetic young veep. Base making loud grumbling noises? Then she'll pick someone with progressive bona fides. It'll all depend on exactly what she needs in June 2016.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Radish posted:

If Ryan had grabbed Biden by the hair and slammed his face on the table repeatedly those same people would have been pumping their fists in happiness. They don't care about "meanness" it's just they know in their hearts their lameass candidate got beaten clearly and fairly and they had to rationalize it somehow that Biden somehow cheated or was rude just like how Obama clearly got elected through underhanded tricks they can't quite explain.
Yeah, when one side says "He came across as really mean!" after a debate, it's an admission that their guy got his rear end kicked in. Note: this doesn't apply to debates with female candidates, where coming on too strong does make you look like a classless bully and probably costs you more votes than you pick up. The 2000 NY Senate debate between Rick Lazio and obscure unknown first-time candidate Hillary Clinton was a good example of this dynamic at work.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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ewe2 posted:

What...when did Fiorina turn up in this, I missed this. Things are that bad huh?
She's been in the mix for a while, clearly positioning herself as a VP pick.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Joementum posted:

There's some evidence that Palin ended up helping McCain by turning out more of the base, but it's very difficult to discern any impact in these things.
The problem with VP picks that boost the main candidate is that if a candidate is in a position where a VP pick increases his chances, then his chances were very low to begin with. I always think about Dukakis choosing Bentsen in 1988, which was very well received across most of the party - and was itself a measure of how deep a hole the Dukakis campaign was in that putting Lloyd Bentsen on the ticket was a big boost. McCain getting a nice bump from Palin was a measure of how unimpressed his base was with him until the pick, and a sign of the trouble he was in. By the time you announce your VP choice, you should already have a mobilized unified party base behind you and the pick should be fairly immaterial to your numbers. If not, then it's a flashing warning light.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Cigar Aficionado posted:

The Clinton's aren't a dynasty. The Bush's are. Hopefully the left will be able to push back on that false equivalency.
It's the same people who pushed the whole "Gush/Bore, not a dimes worth of difference between them" narrative back in 2000.

At least if someone start yammering about the Clinton "dynasty" you can take that as a signal to ignore anything else they might have to say and move on.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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site posted:

Poor Rand only has 205 YouTube subscribers
He's catchin' on, I tell ya!

vvv: :pwn:

FMguru fucked around with this message at 03:00 on Apr 6, 2015

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Necc0 posted:

So how about Hillary endorsing Warren, huh? That sure is a thing. She seems to be angling early to define this election's theme and I'm actually kind of liking the direction she's taking it.
It is interesting. In the 1990s, Democratic candidates usually made a point to distance themselves from their base and play up their Serious Centrist credentials. Even in 2000s, Obama built his message on his (claimed) ability to reach across the aisle and bring Americans all over the political spectrum together. Now, even the Seriousest Centrist of them all finds it necessary (or, at least, expedient) to start her run right in the heart of the party's grassroots faction. It probably has more to do with her figuring the only way she could lose the nomination is if a lefty challenger arises and gets traction, but still - it's a shift.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Sgt. Anime Pederast posted:

How did Rubio get so popular among republicans? I thought he said a pro immigration thing once and they decided they hated him.
1) Voters have the memory of goldfish, generally speaking
2) The Republican primary voting pool is dominated by purity-obsessed True Believers, but there are still a lot of GOP voters out there who just want a winning candidate. They chose McCain in 08 and Romney in 12, after all
3) Walker and Bush are making very weak first impressions of themselves (and Christie's ship is sinking like the Lusitania), so the not-crazy Republican vote is rapidly warming towards Rubio
4) By contrast, there are a lot of True Believer candidates in the mix, which leads to their support being fragmented and spread across a half-dozen goofballs (Carson/Huckabee/Jindal/Paul/Cruz/etc.)

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Bush hasn't run for office since 2002, he's rusty as hell.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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ElrondHubbard posted:

Like Ron Paul, Bernie has attracted the fanatical and often obnoxious loyalty of many first time voters / internet schmucks who have proceeded to annoy the hell out of everyone with their bizarre overconfidence, contemptuous / venomous attitude toward other candidates + their supporters, and general lack of understanding of how politics works in the US. There is of course a plethora of non-obnoxious, reasonable, and informed individuals who support Bernie, but they end up as collateral damage when the backlash hits against the former group, in this case being likened to Ron Paul fanatics.
It goes back further than that - Howard Dean 2004 was the blueprint for smug internet first-timers thinking they were overthrowing the system.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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BetterToRuleInHell posted:

Judging by this thread and the US Pol thread, yes. Also, Fox News says bad things = Clinton's awesome/smart/cool/etc.

Accepting donations from that Qatar Committee and the state itself is scummy as gently caress considering the horrible poo poo their people are experiencing in preparation for the future hosting.

Mitt Romney was villified for his corporate background and how that played into his political ambitions but it apparently the Clintons are savvy for the amount of money they take in, who they take money from, and for what, the 2nd case of millions of unreported moneys coming into the foundation? FOX NEWS LOL though so whatever
Just look at all this airtight evidence of specific Clinton wrongdoing. Amazing, my eyes are finally open.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Carly-mania - catch it!

Talking Points Memo posted:



Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina's attempt to attack former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) didn't quite go as planned on Wednesday.

Fiorina scheduled her own press conference outside of the Marriot Hotel in Columbia, South Carolina where Clinton was scheduled to speak. But instead of holding a press conference where she relentlessly attacked the former secretary of state, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO was peppered with questions about her own candidacy, according to The New York Times.

She was asked, for instance, about her decision to attend the Clinton Global Initiative last year given reports about foreign donations that went to the Clinton Foundation.

"Last year we didn't know all the things we now know about the Clinton Foundation," Fiorina said.

When Fiorina was asked if she would go again, she said she didn't expect to get another invite.

Fiorina, according to the Times, appeared to get more frustrated as questions veered toward whether she was really a serious candidate. Fiorina was pressed on whether her trip to South Carolina was only for attacking Clinton. Another reporter pressed Fiorina if she was outside the hotel just because of Clinton.

"I planned to be here weeks and weeks ago!" Fiorina said. "I have a luncheon to go to, with the GOP here. This trip has been on my itinerary for a very long time."

Fiorina tried to direct the questions back at Clinton.

"I hope you will continue to be as aggressive with Mrs. Clinton, wherever she is," Fiorina said, before cutting off the questions after roughly 11 minutes.
She couldn't even make it 12 minutes into her own rigged, gimmicky press conference without stomping off the stage. Oooh, this candidacy is going places.

One commenter compared her to Malory Archer and that seems just about right.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Poll time! And yes, they are kinda important even this early because they determine who is and isn't allowed to participate in the GOP debates

Quinnipiac posted:

There are five leaders - or no leaders - as Republican voters look at likely GOP candidates in the 2016 White House race, with no candidate above 10 percent and 20 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today.

Leading the pack with 10 percent each are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Rounding out the top 10 for televised debates are U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 7 percent, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 6 percent, Donald Trump at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie at 4 percent and Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2 percent each.
Clinton still beats the entire Republican field

quote:

In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent of American voters to 42 percent for Paul and 45 percent of voters to 41 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:

46 - 37 percent over Christie;
47 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
47 - 37 percent over Bush;
46 - 38 percent over Walker;

48 - 37 percent over Cruz;
50 - 32 percent over Trump.
Someone remind me again about the "electability" arguments for Bush and Walker?

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Speaking of polls, here's an interesting one (from Gallup) showing the shifting social issues landscape.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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GoutPatrol posted:

Polygamy: Its catching on!
The biggest legacy of the Romney 2012 campaign.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Quite possibly the classiest day in American history.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Alter Ego posted:

Her campaign rhetoric would suggest differently--she's gone about as "eat the rich" as I've ever heard Hillary go. The cynic in me says that she's doing it to crowd Bernie and O'Malley out early by co-opting their economic positions, but it's nice to hear.
It's an interesting contrast to the 1990s (when Bill Clinton ran as a third-way triangulator and took every opportunity possible to punch hippies to show he wasn't one of Those Liberal Democrats) and the 2000s (where John Kerry ran on his military service and Barack Obama ran on bipartisan bringing-both-sides-together-ism). I'm sure Clinton is doing this because she figures the biggest threat to her getting the nomination is someone to the left of her getting traction so she's trying to foreclose that, but even so it's a measure of how the political landscape is changing.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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tsa posted:

His first election was fairly lefty / populist economically, it wasn't till he got into office that he started swinging to the right. He ran on raising taxes and expanding government spending. Then he got in, Greenspan said ":lol:" and his tune changed pretty quickly.
He also talked about welfare reform and "reinventing" (i.e. privatizing) government, he jumped all over a guest at a Jesse Jackson event (giving us the phrase "Sister Souljah Moment"), and he showed how tough he was on crime by returning to his home state to oversee the execution of a mentally ill convict.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Shifting the overton window and the topics under debate. Occupy was a success in that it got income inequality to essentially replace DEFICIT BAD in the media, and Bernie's candidacy has similar potential to reshape the debate.

Mechanically, Republicans will attack Hillary over those new left wing positions, forcing her to defend them, shifting policy priorities, etc.

Or hell, maybe he wins. Already more popular than any Republican.
The total lack of right-wing challengers to Clinton is interesting, too (Jim Webb seems to have wandered away disinterested from his half-formed campaign, which was no surprise to anyone who saw him wander away from a holdable Senate seat). She's not having to prove how tough she is on crime or how willing she is to make the hard choices when it comes to cutting welfare and education and social security. I haven't seen any of that so far.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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computer parts posted:

What are the notable realignments prior to the 1960s?
1932 New Deal
1896 McKinley
1860 Lincoln
1828 Jackson

1968 Nixon/Reagan Southern Strategy
2006/08 Obama Coalition

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Jackson Taus posted:

Normally in these circumstances, losing the White House 4 times in a row would lead a party to reform, break up, or re-align. We saw the Republicans do basically that under Nixon (Southern Strategy) and the Democrats do that under Bill Clinton (Third Way).
The weird thing is that the Republicans haven't even started the process of trying to figure out why they keep losing Presidential election. There's no equivalent to the DLC or magazines like The New Republic or any efforts to change policy in any way - at every level, the party is convinced that the 1980 Reagan playbook is still effective and that any losses they've suffered can be traced to combination of evil opponents (George Soros, ACORN, the crooked mainstream media, massive voter fraud, skewed polls, etc.) and insufficient dedication to True 1980-style Conservatism. Their sprawling 2016 candidate list is made up of people who are 100% doctrinaire Reaganauts (cut taxes, loosen regulation, cut social spending, etc.).

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Jackson Taus posted:

The way I see it, they kind of have. The difference is that whereas you and I think that they either need their own Bill Clinton (to move them to a more palatable center) or another Nixon (to find a wedge-issue to realign them demographically), they've come to the conclusion that they need a new Reagan - someone who is a fierce advocate of their existing values in their most extreme form and who triumphs by selling their existing values to the public. The true believers on both sides routinely overestimate the public's level of support for their values - just as many of us here are convinced that America either supports our issues or would support them if packaged decently, hardcore Republicans believe that the only thing stopping Americans from embracing conservatism for all time is a failure to message it properly (or a conspiracy theory). In a sense, both sides are correct - when you distill either platform down to just basic core value stuff it's all Motherhood-and-Apple-Pie and relatively unobjectionable. Like nobody is going to say that "economic freedom" or "a moral society" are bad, but they object to policies like "abolish the FDA" and "give Christians the right to discriminate" that grow out of those core values.
Daydreaming about a New Reagan to descend from the clouds and carry them off to the land of landslide electoral victories is just another way of avoiding the issue (that the demographics of the presidential electorate have turned decisively against the Republicans and that this demographic change still has a long way to run). Democrats did this in the 1970s and 1980s, endless wishing for "another JFK" who would dazzle and inspire and heal all the rifts of the post-civil right Democratic Party (to the point of running his drunk and disorganized younger brother in a catastrophic insurgent campaign against a sitting Democratic president). It didn't work for them, and it's not going to work for the GOP.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Captain_Maclaine posted:

The thing that gets me is how much since 2008 the GOP has focused in on its messaging, rather than the message itself. Time and again we hear GOP figures going on about how they need to retool how they communicate their vision to the parts of the electorate that don't vote for them, rather than spending much, if any, time examining if that vision actually holds any real appeal for those outside their eroding base.
I think, deep down, a lot of party professionals so understand just how badly the demographic landscape is tilting against them. It's just that no one wants to be the one who tells evangelicals to knock it off with the gay bashing, or to tell the nativists that they need to come to terms with the reality of Latino immigration. So much easier to pretend that it's still 1980 and all the party's problems are the fault of a biased media or weak candidates.

The media empire they've built is really harming them. No one wants to step in front of the 24/7 Fox/Drudge/Limbaugh conservative rage machine to try and get it to tone itself down or move to the center on a couple of issues. That 2012 election autopsy report was viable for about 15 minutes before the machine tore it apart; poor Rubio tried to push for a change on immigration policy and he got consigned to the Outer Darkness for the last two and a half years. Why risk your comfy Wingnut Welfare sinecure on a suicide mission?

FMguru fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Jun 2, 2015

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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comes along bort posted:

Nah he did it the old fashioned way taking advantage of an intraparty rift to build a support infrastructure.
He did it by actually understanding the state-by-state rules for awarding delegates, and tailoring his electoral strategy to match. Unlike his main opponent's campaign, whose lead strategist did not understand the difference between states that awarded delegates on a winner-take-all basis, and those which distributed them proportionately.

FMguru fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Jun 2, 2015

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
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Jackson Taus posted:

To be fair to Republicans, it's possible that they simply can't pivot while the demographic transition is ongoing. Like until white votes hit some threshold where they're an even smaller portion of the electorate than they are now, it could be the case that ditching an advantage in the white vote to compete for minority votes is a bad call. Like a decision that makes sense when non-whites are 35-40% of the electorate (in the 2020s or 2030s) doesn't make sense when they're only 25% of the electorate.

Suppose Republicans faced a policy choice which would cost them 5% of the white vote but gain them 10% of the non-white vote. Numerically, this is currently a bad deal, losing them 1.25% of the vote, but 10-20 years down the line (when it's 60/40), that would be a good deal, earning them 0.25% of the vote.
Yeah, like I said, I fully understand the reluctance of Republicans to start talking about changing their platform given the pushback they'd experience from The Base, but it's still quite amazing. They've lost the popular vote in five of the last six elections, and the official policy is "it's all good, no need to change anything, we just need better salesmen". Still, it has to be done eventually (or maybe not - the Whig party never adjusted to the changing demographic and issue landscape of the 1850s, and look where they ended up) and the longer they put it off, the deeper the hole they'll be in when they decide to start climbing out. It takes a couple of decades to turn a party around, and they haven't even taken the first steps towards making any changes. It's like the Democratic party in 1990 decided to just re-run Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis, over and over, until they eventually won.

As a Democrat, I'm delighted. I saw what the Republicans did to themselves in California chasing the nativist vote, and I'm delighted that they're doing it nation-wide. The Millennial generation is the largest one ever in American history, and they're doing everything they can to piss it off in order to appeal to their aging, shrinking, literally dying white Boomer base.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Joementum posted:

Jeb is the "undisputed jobs champ", according to Jeb
Hand, rim, or blow?

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Luigi Thirty posted:

I mean, the man bankrupted a casino.
Also managed to go broke buying and selling Manhattan real estate. Do you know how hard that is?

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Zikan posted:

I don't think any number of image consultants can save a guy who thinks



is a great selfie.
Someone pointed out to me yesterday that Walker is starting to look like this cycle's version of Perry 2012 - looks good on paper, ticks all the boxes, seems like he should be a heavy hitter, but exposed as not-ready-for-prime-time once he hits the campaign trail and people get a look at you.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Intel&Sebastian posted:

The fact that Hillary recognizes what a giant win this issue is makes me feel a lot better about her campaign. It completely baffles me that Dems didnt run with this. "voter fraud" is such a flimsy defense against something soooo easy to sell and, more importantly, the right thing to do.
It also shores her up among black and Latino voters (keep that growing Obama coalition activated and engaged). Most non-white people know exactly what "voter fraud" means, and Hillary is pointing out what side she's on (and the GOP response will point out what side they're on). Plus it's a good long-term policy goal for Dems that will help them win more elections in the future if they can pursue it.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Ah yes, the first two steps on the road to political success

1) Don't raise any money or resources
2) Disassociate yourself from any large or even medium groups of people who might organize to support you

This guy has it all figured out.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Zwabu posted:

If I recall the Romney doc was made by a friend/supporter and was specifically an effort to promote and rehabilitate his image so of course there was plenty of access. I'm sure it was intended to build up his cult of personality if he won with the backup purpose of humanizing him and promoting his image if he lost.
It was originally supposed the be the inside story of the man who won the 2008 election, and then it became the not-quite-so-inside-story of the man who won the 2012 campaign, and then it became a look behind the scenes at the man who lost the 2008 and 2012 elections.

It was planned as a record of a triumphant campaign, but once Mitt lost the election, the film makers were left with a giant pile of footage and had to come up with another plan.

Lots of documentaries start as one thing and end up (by necessity) as something completely different. It's one of the challenges of the form.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Gyges posted:

Because they know Bernie isn't going to win. They didn't really support Obama over Hillary until he showed he could actually win. At least that's what the last black guy I asked said, so I'm sure that's where the hivemind is at.
My experience with black voters is that they are pragmatic and skeptical and not prone to flights of enthusiasm for fresh faces and soaring rhetoric and the possibilities of transformative change (i.e. the exact opposite of college freshmen). They tend to guardedly stick to what they know, and given this country's 240 year history of letting them down, who can blame them?

Hillary is a known quantity, she's almost certain to win the nomination and very likely to be the next president, so what exactly are they supposed to gain by backing Bernie?

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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EugeneJ posted:

The blacks need people they can trust
Tell us more about what "the blacks" need, o great white savior.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Gyges posted:

Clearly it's those sexy pants suits.
Hillary's lovely legs.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Zelder posted:

Man I can't wait to tell my mom and family and friends that us poor black people are just sheep getting hustled by the church
Thank God there was someone here to whitesplain it all to you.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Cythereal posted:

I thought he established that Jeb was the dumb one when he was caught flat-footed by a reporter asking him about Iraq and whether he would have done what his brother did.
It's weird because I've been reading since 2000 that Jeb! was supposed to be "the smart one". I forget who first made the comparison (maybe Dowd) between the Bushes and the Corleones, with Dubya as Sonny (the charming hothead), Jeb as Michael (the smart one, calculating and controlled), and poor dumb Neil as Fredo (the fuckup who is kept as far away from the family business as possible).

Being "the smart one" compared to Dubya and Neil isn't exactly setting the bar sky-high, but still, Jeb's total lack of lightness on his feet and bland, forgettable, zero-charisma presentation has been shocking. Some of it is rust from being out of politics so long, but the rest of it...can any Florida goons who remember his governorship tell me if he was always this bad?

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FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

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Your Gay Uncle posted:

I remember the old Bloom County books my uncle gave me mercilessly trashing Trump and that was 20 years ago. Are there really people in 2015 who not only take him seriously but think he should be President?
He is literally a dumb person's idea of what a rich person should look and act like.

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