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Doctor Spaceman posted:Yeah, that's what I mean. People who might vote for her because she's a woman were likely to be Democrat supporters already but that doesn't mean they'd have bothered to vote. Democrats will turn out for a woman with a male face attached to them; whether they'll turn out for a woman without a well-known man attached to her, remains to be seen.
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Nov 10, 2014 04:49
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Well in addition to his position on dental hygiene, he did also promise to buy everyone a pony. That more or less seals up the brony demographic, though I can only hope it that was not his intention. Well, Hillary's campaign does depend upon white, female turnout for her resembling 2008. Why can't Vermin Supreme go for this group with ~ponies~ ?
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Nov 10, 2014 05:52
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CubsWoo posted:I suppose Hillary could win in a walk if one of her campaign planks was a day one executive action directing the Department of Education to zero out all outstanding federal student loans. But as long as we're dreaming, I'll take one of those ponies Vermin's offering. That's a quicker way to lose a nationwide campaign than "free ponies." In fact, that may be the quickest way to lose a campaign I ever heard. Which makes it an idea that I just don't know Hillary's position on.
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Nov 10, 2014 06:12
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dinoputz posted:Chelsea Clinton, Bobby Digital posted:How is Bobby Jindal not listed as exorcist? Because he got excised.
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Nov 10, 2014 09:19
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If Romney picks someone with an 'R' last name, he could save some cash and re-use his last campaigns' logo.
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Nov 10, 2014 21:14
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Nameless_Steve posted:Julian Castro probably won't make a primary bid, but it would be interesting if he did, just for the sake of earning enough recognition to become the running mate. He'd be a good running mate; although he'd be unlikely to bring in Texas (who are used to dismissing San Antonio liberals), he could invigorate Latinos and young voters across the nation. If you're looking for Latino candiates positioning themselves for 2016 potential, I'd say to look at Louis Gutierrez before Castro--he'e the La Rossa to Castro's milquetoast moderation.
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Nov 11, 2014 02:08
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Kalman posted:Rahm, no one outside of Chicago cares about Gutierrez. That's not true. Gutierrez cares about Gutierrez. And regarding the age issue, I'm not sure whether Republican attacks on someone for being too old will resonate well with their base. Especially when that base is older whites. I expect a group to try it out and for limited polling and focus groups to be conducted on this issue before 'Too old' has a national rollout as a talkingpoint.
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Nov 11, 2014 02:57
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Joementum posted:Snyder has also said he would veto a bill that changes how Michigan awards EVs. See, I'm mixed on this. On one hand, a solid block of electoral votes makes winning the popular vote within the state the most important element of an election. On the other, it ensures continued increase in broadcast prices as national parties pour in an increasing amount of capital that goes straight to the bottom line of a state's largest media holders, and concentrates power at the state level within the hands of those who influence editorial leanings and broadcast rates. Splitting the vote loses billions of capital influx to the state, while also lowering the price for candidate competitiveness and opens elected offices to a more diverse subset of of a state's population. So, how much exactly is a vote in the electoral college worth?
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Nov 14, 2014 00:49
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comes along bort posted:Pretty sure defending African or Central Asian or Latin American strongmen is a job requirement for working in management on the Clinton campaign. You forgot Eastern European, and Mid-Eastern.
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Nov 14, 2014 22:40
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AYC posted:American political institutions and practices generally don't make sense; change is extremely difficult, and inertia is among the most potent forces in all of Washington. Because changing it would disproprtionately benefit one party over the other. When changing rules benefits both parties, you find the rules much easier to bend.
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Nov 15, 2014 22:33
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Nameless_Steve posted:The closest states in 2012 were North Carolina (R), Virginia (D), Ohio (D), and Florida (D). Assume the Republicans win those closest states and Michigan approptiates electoral college delegates based upon congressional district, whats the the math look like then? Further, how many votes would they have to persuade in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida if that plan pushes them over 270?
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Nov 16, 2014 18:47
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Nintendo Kid posted:All the proportional EV plans seem to fall apart on the basis of "no seriously this time we can really win all of it! why let the other party keep half?". Proportional EV plans in non-competitive states with media markets which overlap battleground states makes some bit of economic sense for state-level legislators, while making less sense for statewide officer holders and individuals with districts outside competitive media markets.
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Nov 16, 2014 19:22
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Pillowpants posted:If all the states allotted EV's proportionally, would Romney have won? Proportionally by House district? Yes.
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Nov 16, 2014 19:31
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Cheekio posted:I think you're for regulating lobbyists as per your second paragraph, which lobby reform aims to do. It just aims to regulate them better, not outright ban the practice. You 'reform' lobbying too much without addressing the underlying issues, all you do is push more money through unofficial channels.
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Nov 17, 2014 19:48
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CommieGIR posted:Thankfully Pearson and McGraw-Hill removed the changes the Koch's pushed through to their science books. Kochs have several grant programs available which offer students up to $2,000 reimbursement for enrollment in select, approved courses. If someone is willing to reduce the costs of students in higher ed while they're instructed upon best-practices analytical methods, I trust the students to be intelligent enough to see through potential bias and conflicts of interest.
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Nov 17, 2014 22:58
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menino posted:Yeah it's certainly possible to overcome, but the main takeaway is that it's a lovely program that shouldn't exist. I agree, however, you can't reform education in America without first fixing our communities and restoring historical rates of intra-class mobility during the lifespan. Until then, its better than nothing.
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Nov 17, 2014 23:26
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:If the Republicans can't win Virginia in a 6th year midterm wave, is it a swing state? Can they win it in a 8th year non-wave election? Virginia is a swing state because a sufficiently appealing R and sufficiently crazy D will make it go red, whereas Minnesota went blue even for Mondale and Dukakis
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Nov 22, 2014 20:21
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OneTwentySix posted:I don't see how anyone looks at Walker and sees anything except a massive failure. The state is doing far worse than most states in job creation and growth, and it's falling behind in a lot of areas. The same way one looks at Ryan and sees the future face of the national GOP. Walker knows he'd only get a Veep pick in an attempt to turn Wisconsin R. However, there are other R governors to keep your eye on with more electoral vote flipping potential and stronger patronage networks than Walker in the midwest. For an R President, you need NY/NE, Cali, Chicago, or Texas as a patronage base. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Nov 22, 2014 |
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Nov 22, 2014 22:50
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Cythereal posted:Comedy option: Florida. Your likely Floridian comedy option has a Texas patronage network with tendrils in NY and Cali.
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Nov 22, 2014 23:02
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Joementum posted:I think Ted Cruz is the only potential Republican Presidential candidate who went to an Ivy, unless I'm missing someone. Does Dartmoth count?
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Nov 24, 2014 19:39
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Joementum posted:The DNC has narrowed the list of cities for the convention to Columbus, New York, and Philadelphia. They have also narrowed the dates for the convention to the weeks of July 18, July 25, and August 22, following the RNC's lead on having an earlier convention, which is a great idea. Philadelphia, July 18th.
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Nov 24, 2014 20:16
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notthegoatseguy posted:It has almost no effect at all. The 2012 DNC took place in North Carolina where Obama ended up losing, and the RNC was in Florida which went for Obama. There's been several conventions in cities on both sides where the state is so blue/red it wouldn't matter. I think 2004's RNC was in New York and the DNC was in Boston, both solid blue states for POTUS that might sometimes elect Republicans to the US Senate or state-wide office. Conventions aren't about winning a state, they're about ethics in political finance.
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Nov 24, 2014 20:36
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Joementum posted:If you've got a 35 year old dog, congrats! Boy, is that ever an opening for an OnionBiden joke if I ever saw one
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Nov 25, 2014 01:29
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mdemone posted:Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: the hole is becoming a trap now what Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: let it flare
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Nov 29, 2014 18:15
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evilweasel posted:At what point did it really become clear Obama was running in 2008? I keep feeling like if there was going to be a Hillary challenger I'd sort of know who they were by now, but I realized that don't actually have any real basis for that belief because I apparently have the memory of a goldfish and can't remember the leadup to the primaries in 2008 well enough. When was Obama's first official visit to a county bordering Iowa? There's your answer. Convention speech + Iowa bordering county visit = you're in.
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Dec 2, 2014 14:52
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Chamale posted:No he's not, he's bland. A normal person has some strong interests, a few vices, and some powerful emotions. Romney never seemed to show any of that. Romney has all of those: strong emotions about Ferguson and strong interests in money, sneaking cans of diet rc cole, and a great sense of shame in front of Ann. If anything, I'd say his vices are too normal. At least admit to your coke habit at Bain and make yourself appear a flawed underdog, Americans love a flawed underdog narrative. Heck, they'd love a McCain strikes back narrative in 2016.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:05
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Joementum posted:Bernie has released a Sometimes, you need a genuine commie running in your party to force the opposition into a worse negotiating position. "You think the YoungGuns are bad? Just wait 'til you see the Col. Sanders."
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Dec 3, 2014 02:51
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Warcabbit posted:I want every appearance he has to be full of ostensibly pro-Jeb people holding Miss Me Yet pictures of W. Hillary Clinton has lost that ‘new car’ smell http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...bff8_story.html quote:But when it was time for Clinton’s appearance to begin Wednesday morning, half of the 700 seats in the place were empty. After a half-hour “weather delay,” diplomats and VIPs filled a few more chairs, but more than 300 remained vacant when the former secretary of state and first lady walked in wearing a robin’s-egg-blue jacket and her signature pants. Hillary’s presidential reality check moment http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/hillary-clinton-on-the-presidency-113333.html quote:‘You can easily lose touch with what’s real’ This Hillary Clinton song is really, really terrible http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/12/04/this-hillary-clinton-song-is-really-terrible-video/ http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/...oint-committee/ quote:'Clinton got top billing as the evening’s “special guest,” and the Hollywood Reporter called it a “coming out of sorts” for Clinton among entertainment industry donors, should she opt to run for president in 2016.' Operation: Miss Me Yet? in full effect.
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Dec 5, 2014 04:52
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Jazerus posted:Abraham Lincoln, by his own admission. Sources say that he had a kind of animated craggy charisma despite that, though. Lincoln had one hell of a high-pitch voice.
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Dec 5, 2014 23:32
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Joementum posted:Potential 2016 rivals met tonight (with Ned Lamont looking on). admit it, you think Clinton would pick Sanders just like Clinton 1 wound up with Gore You realize it'll give us 8 years of Bush after, right?
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Dec 6, 2014 06:33
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Joementum posted:I'll play along, even though you're not being serious. 1. Veep pick is about money. If enough folks are trying to goad Clinton into picking Warren, she may see the value in a symbolic, white-bread progressive pick. 2. I'm not sure about Warner. She's not going to pick anyone who'd get more of a spotlight than her, nor will she pick a woman. I can't see what donors Warner would bring that Clinton can't already get. Frankly, Clinton has a Hollywood problem and needs someone with bi-coastal appeal. Someone who either has their own network, or someone who she can put in front of LA and rake in their cash while she focuses on her traditional monetary base. Or so I expect the logic of her next campaign director to go.
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Dec 6, 2014 06:45
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OctoberBlues posted:I am not able to follow politics as much as I would like, but I get the impression that there is only about a 5% chance of a Warren run in 2016. Although... if Hillary wins in 2016/2020, Warren has basically lost any shot of the presidency by being too old for 2024. That said, I am still thinking around 5% - thoughts? Biden is her only hope; ain't no way Hillary lets herself get upstaged by a woman who excites the base more than she does.
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Dec 11, 2014 06:05
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Fulchrum posted:He's not going to be tied to everything Bush? You really don't want to see how, "Miss Me Yet?" polls these days.
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Dec 11, 2014 07:51
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BristolSOF posted:Two questions regarding Hillary's VP pick - Gutierrez or Castro, depending upon what weakness in her narrative she needs to counter. Yes.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:07
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BristolSOF posted:Noted. Hillary would probably go hard Gutierrez, if she thought she had an actual chance at losing the primary. By the time you get to the convention where that becomes a serious consideration, you've got more problems than just choosing a Veep: You've got rules fuckery to skullfuck you over and you end up with everyone hosed over. Webb's angling for Veep, I think. Hillary, Biden, Emanuel, Warren: Choose two* *H+B does not work. B+E does not work. H+W does not work. E+B does not work. W+B does not work. W+H does not work. If scenario does not work, move on to third tier: Gutierrez, Castro, Webb If scenario does not work, move on to fourth tier: Dean, (Go back to second-tier "does not work") If scenario does not work, move on to fifth tier: Nixon, Sanders, Duckworth, that one guy from New Mexico, random California choice, maybe a black guy? Chamale posted:Gutierrez is from Illinois, and he's known for his speaking skills but lacks any notable power. Julian Castro seems more likely since he's secretary of HUD and obviously has ambitions. What do you think might lead Hillary to pick Gutierrez as her running mate? Actual progressive grassroots opposition to her candidacy combined with a moderate Republican like Romney, Bush, Rauner, or McCain. e: Some explanations of the systems I find to be operating: Hillary will not, can not, accept Veep to someone she feels doesn't "deserve" to be President. Biden cannot, will not, accept Veep to someone he doesn't think would be a better President than him, and thats an extremely narrow list. Emamuel is willing to pull a Lieberman 2008 if it gets him better positioned to become President. No candidate will choose a black male as their first-tier Veep choice, nor will a black male be a first-tier candidate. The race is Hillary's to lose, namely, by being unable to distinguish herself from the perceived Republican frontrunner, and from overcompensating for such. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Dec 11, 2014 |
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Dec 11, 2014 08:22
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Chamale posted:Governor Jay Nixon of Missouri? That man is 7 billionth tier, the corpse of Osama bin Laden would be a better VP pick than him. Yes, unless the situation calls for a white male and Webb is found with a live boy or dead girl, Dean goes Munch, and Emanuel can't be used, in which case Nixon is the last one left alive. ComradeCosmobot posted:I know you'd like to be Hillary's veep, Rahm, but while you were buddy buddy with Hillary up until Obama ran, I question whether she'd not count your ostrich behavior in 2008 as a betrayal. While you keep your friends close, you keep your enemies closer. Which party hosts their convention first in 2015?
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Dec 11, 2014 08:40
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BristolSOF posted:That along with Gov. Susana Martinez getting picked by a moderate Republican... wouldn't that force Hillary to a pick a Hispanic candidate? It really depends upon which moderate Republican is picked and how well they do amongst hispanics. If the situation calls for a populist hispanic over a milquetoast hispanic, I think Hillary would go for Gutierrez. GOP pick of a moderate, hispanic woman could force Hillary to choose a non-hispanic in order to shore up the non-hispanic vote. SedanChair posted:Sternness toward blacks is a plus. Yeah, it is when you're losing among whites, black turnout is projected to be abyssmal, and hispanics begin disobedience campaigns or dissent against your candidacy. Social unrest could play a large role in the 2016 campaigns, depending upon how things develop.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:46
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SedanChair posted:Do not fear MIGF, your banker cop masters are safe. I fear for Democratic turnout in 2016. Hammering from blacks for not doing enough, hammering from latinos for doing too much for others, hammering from whites for doing too much while not doing enough.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:52
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Chantilly Say posted:So to be clear, your argument here is that if the Republicans put a Hispanic person on the ticket, Hillary should choose a white VP so she can pick up votes from people who won't pull the lever for a person of color. If the Republicans go with a moderate enough ticket willing to enact and campaign on some immigration reform, Clinton may attempt to capture the racist vote, yes. SedanChair posted:Why, are you a democrat or something? what the gently caress for Ain't no party like the Democratic party 'cause we been partying since 1792/1828 so get with the party or gently caress off.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:59
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SedanChair posted:I can see the argument. If only one ticket is all-white in this election, that ticket will pick up a ton of votes because of it. You're right on this SedanChair. You're correct. You know the time between the first black congressmen elected and the second? Yeah, gonna take as long for a black man to get back to executive power in a non-token manner.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:05
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