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Autogolpe is a term we're seeing a lot these days.
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Dec 8, 2023 22:41
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Tweet is not entirely clear, but by my reading of the news, the prosecutor's office is trying to nullify the victory of Arevalo (surprise quasi outsider candidate?) and this is the courts saying "no, gently caress you". Whether this is good depends on your opinion of Arevalo and I don't have one. It does seem like the prosecutor's office stunt was Some Bullshit. Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Dec 8, 2023 |
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Dec 8, 2023 22:50
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Hmm let's see if it gets spicy again. I changed a trip from Guatemala and Honduras earlier to Costa Rica now because of massive protests and blockades that wete happening then. I've been asking around and apparently things have calmed down back to normal, but this could certainly get some people upset. But I think it's good?
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Dec 9, 2023 00:52
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Google Jeb Bush posted:Tweet is not entirely clear, but by my reading of the news, the prosecutor's office is trying to nullify the victory of Arevalo (surprise quasi outsider candidate?) and this is the courts saying "no, gently caress you". Whether this is good depends on your opinion of Arevalo and I don't have one. It does seem like the prosecutor's office stunt was Some Bullshit. yeah I did some digging on this earlier and that's also my reading. Arevalo will take office
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Dec 9, 2023 02:03
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So apparently both Orban and Zelensky will be on Buenos Aires on Sunday for Mieli’s investiture . And Orban just announced some pro Russia stuff? Should be fun!
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Dec 9, 2023 05:36
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Here's a 3 hour (!) video on Mileis economics, I have no idea if it's good or poo poo. But I've watched this guys videos before and he seemed to be speaking sense back then. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgBKSjtmahs
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Dec 9, 2023 15:57
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Alright, been trying to read up some on Arevalo's political inclinations vs his opponent(s). Broadly: seems good. Real big on anticorruption and is the first guy in a billion years not to slide into bed with too many of the established powers, has some solid and implementable working class focused recovery plans. Usual caveat that I can't read Spanish for poo poo and my prior knowledge of Guatemala is not deep but a bunch of vaguely reliable, not particularly capitalist shill outlets all seem to be on the same page. And conservatives in Guatemala are very mad, which is usually a sign things are going right. Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 00:41 on Dec 11, 2023 |
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Dec 11, 2023 00:38
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Google Jeb Bush posted:Alright, been trying to read up some on Arevalo's political inclinations vs his opponent(s). Broadly: seems good. Real big on anticorruption Historically being big on anti corruption in the campaign is the biggest indicator for super-corruption when in office
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Dec 12, 2023 14:40
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Historically being big on anti corruption in the campaign is the biggest indicator for super-corruption when in office I don't think this is true
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Dec 12, 2023 17:08
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i say swears online posted:I don't think this is true Checks out for Brasil (Jânio, Collor, Bolsonaro)
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Dec 12, 2023 17:15
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i say swears online posted:I don't think this is true Aw babby must be new here
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Dec 12, 2023 17:17
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Who runs on corruption
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Dec 12, 2023 17:17
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Historically being big on anti corruption in the campaign is the biggest indicator for super-corruption when in office I think it can go either way. Accusing political rivals of being corrupt is a fairly common tactic, but sometimes there's just a lot of corruption that you need somebody to specifically root out. And sometimes you get a guy who rips out corruption only to replace it with his own corruption.
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Dec 12, 2023 19:02
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Quick 'anti-corruption' fixes tend to involve a bit of centralisation of power and replacement of officials with new, loyal people. And that will indeed solve the corruption problem. For about two weeks.
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Dec 12, 2023 19:18
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zoux posted:Who runs on corruption Everyone!
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Dec 12, 2023 22:09
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zoux posted:Who runs on corruption Nobody. Why do you think the world is so corrupt?
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Dec 13, 2023 00:08
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As far as I can tell, the Guatemalan government is in fact in an unusually bad state re graft. Whether Arevalo is likely to do something significant about that rapidly gets beyond me. I'm seeing stuff about transparency reforms but dunno if that's just branding or what. trying to get educated on the politics of a country your media has never cared about from square one is hard even when it's in the Anglosphere (which is why I will remain the reigning champion on Sri Lankan politics  )
Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Dec 13, 2023 |
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Dec 13, 2023 00:22
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No faction or party is ever openly pro-corruption, of course. But making anti-corruption the main banner of a candidate or movement is usually a 100% sign that they have no plan or platform for development, diplomacy, piblic service, logistics, etc. Just hunt and punch the enemy of choice and it will ALL get better. It hasn't gotten better yet? You didn't punch enough thugs. Or maybe you are one. Why are you against the thug-punching initiative? Brazil is a very corrupt country, but revenue losses to that are -minuscule- compared to tax evasion and losses due to tax havens. To no one's surprise, the quasi-legal graft used by the real corporate and public movers and shakers receives a lot less media hype than the classic suitcase full of dollars. Then again, even the suitcase of cash can be excused for the right people. Aecio Neves, a neolib shithead held to be the Great White Hope for the center-right to stop eating poo poo in Brazil, was filmed sending a suitcase full of cash via a cousin and laughing about killing any snitches. He was never formally charged, ran for a minor legislative position with ummunity in his home state and won, and no one talks about it. It did collapse his presidential run, though, and was one of factors that allowed the rise of Bolsonaro
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Dec 13, 2023 13:31
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Ok so I'm in Guatemala right now. Like physically. A few months ago there were huge protests including all major roads being blockaded. It seems that whatever is happening in response to the ruling hasn't resulted in any disturbance so far. I'll try to chat up some locals but my spanish is non-existent so I might get an unrepresentative sample of opinions but we'll see. E: as for "anti-corruption", yeah that was a red flag to me as well. It's not something I can support statistically but in my Eastern-European experience this has been a code-word for "we're gonna be extremely corrupt lol". Maybe it's not even intentional on their behalf, like if all the state systems and structures are already completely hosed, but in the end that seems to happen... a lot. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Dec 13, 2023 |
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Dec 13, 2023 21:31
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Meanwhile in Argentina, Milei imposed a series of economic measures. In his campaign he said that the adjustment was going to be paid for by the political caste. On Tuesday they announced that they are withdrawing subsidies from services and transportation, devaluing the dollar by 114%, and increasing taxes on services in dollars. All measures that destroy the middle and lower class. In the end the middle and lower classes were the enemy.
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Dec 14, 2023 18:05
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Every time I hate being poor, I remember that to be rich or even stable I'd have to suck a sociopath's dick and then I feel a little better. They're gonna kill me eventually though. That day's coming. Death by a thousand little roadblocks until the transmission block finally gets cut.
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Dec 14, 2023 18:16
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Milei's economics are of course terrible, but a big chunk of the current inflation crisis is the government artificially boosting demand. He's going to create a lot more problems along the way as dollarization ruins a lot of domestic industries but a side effect is Argentines will be so poor that they won't be able to afford dollars, solving the problem. The alternative is a program of capital controls and protectionism alongside domestic investment that builds up supply to match demand but if the Argentine government could pull that off a la Asian tiger style it wouldn't be argentine.
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Dec 14, 2023 18:24
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Argentina's economy seems like such a clusterfuck that I'm not even sure more idiotic policies can make it significantly worse at this point
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Dec 14, 2023 18:32
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Well at least the could try a new idiotic policy Im pretty sure that specific one have been tried many times in the last decades
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Dec 14, 2023 18:35
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Nothing crashed and burned within 24 hours so Number is exuberant.quote:Day one of the grand experiment to cure Argentina’s crisis-ravaged economy handed President Javier Milei a victory.
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Dec 14, 2023 18:45
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Dek posted:Meanwhile in Argentina, Milei imposed a series of economic measures. Wow they actually voted to do to themselves what the IMF and the World Bank usually have to send the CIA in to force on people. Or 51% of them did, I really feel for the other 49% who tried to stop this
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Dec 14, 2023 20:57
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VitalSigns posted:Wow they actually voted to do to themselves what the IMF and the World Bank usually have to send the CIA in to force on people. This is what you get when people decide that they want change for the sake of change. Maybe this is what Argentina needs and Milei will go down in history as the guy who was willing and able to sacrifice his long term political career to get a bunch of necessary changes made in the Argentinian economy, but who knows. Hopefully not too many people get hurt along the way.
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Dec 14, 2023 21:01
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https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/what-does-argentinas-shock-therapy-economic-package-involve-2023-12-13/quote:Government subsidies for media companies will be suspended, as they are a nonessential expense, the minister noted.
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Dec 14, 2023 21:08
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Eric Cantonese posted:This is what you get when people decide that they want change for the sake of change. When inflation is at 160% and you are on your 6th recession in 10 years your policy choices are about who gets stuck holding the big bag of poo poo that's been passed around for years, you don't get to pretend there isn't a big bag of poo poo. Milei is absolutely going to gently caress it up and the next election will return a Peronist left government and Argentina will stay stuck in the cycle its been stuck in for the last 100 years.
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Dec 14, 2023 21:18
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mobby_6kl posted:Argentina's economy seems like such a clusterfuck that I'm not even sure more idiotic policies can make it significantly worse at this point In economic theory there are 4 types of economies. Mature economies, developing economies, Japan and Argentina
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Dec 14, 2023 22:16
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i believe the academic term is flaystagtion
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Dec 14, 2023 22:20
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https://x.com/AmericaElige/status/1735436002947449340?s=20 somewhere between galaxy brain and "well it's not like we lose anything by trying"
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Dec 15, 2023 01:47
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 OK that's more like it
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Dec 15, 2023 23:21
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Welp
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Dec 15, 2023 23:33
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now we're cookin'
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Dec 15, 2023 23:38
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mobby_6kl posted:
Ah, the old "arrest left wingers and send their children to be raised by authoritarians" shtick. gently caress.
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Dec 16, 2023 02:14
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you see i am an anarcho capitalist because i believe in the most freedomest liberties. free freedoms to do what you please, that's what it's all about. this is an unshakeable ironclad core to my ideological tenets. free markets, free people. freedom, liberty [gets in power] DISSENT IS PUNISHABLE BY REVOCATION OF CHILDREN. UNIONIZATION OF LABOR IS TREASON
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Dec 16, 2023 15:56
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The loudest voice for freedom immediately turns into an overreaching authoritarian? Wow there is no historical precedence for this. Who could have ever known? Better keep education underfunded and controlled to be sure. "Civics" is a dirty word this century.
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Dec 16, 2023 16:04
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You guys just don't see! These union thugs were preventing good honest Argentinians from exercising their freedom to go to work or use services so because they have some sort of grievance they should individually make an informed economic choice about. Instead they engage in collective action, which is essentially terrorism as it prevents capital from being exploited. Really, democratic collective action is a small step away from the gulags. Less sarcastically, a number of protests in Argentina take the form of blockading part of the city. Effectively the goal is to not just deny services to the sector, industry or company in dispute but to shut down activity in the city as much as possible. Often these are done without prior notice, I'm assuming a tactic to maximise their impact. The result is a lot of the middle class are really loving sick of them and this kind of far reaching and liable to be abused legislation will probably be well received initially.
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Dec 16, 2023 17:50
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Right next door, Chile is having a time. https://apnews.com/article/chile-new-constitution-referendum-f7be231ff564856f6a5e1b0c0ac12c57 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/17/chile-draft-constitution-vote-negative-impacts https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67715543 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/17/world/americas/chile-constitution-referendum-vote.html If you remember a while back, Chile voted to get a new constitution since the current one was written by Pinochet. Only, the first, very progressive proposal, failed to be voted in. Now there's a second proposal written by conservatives up for a vote, and it's way in the other directions. Most notably, it promises to protect unborn life, so that could lead to banning abortions. There's also a lot of stuff about protecting private property, cutting down the the number of legislative representatives, protecting homeschooling, and declaring rodeo to become the national pasttime. But initial polls seem to also be towards voters rejecting this constitution as well, so maybe they'll just end up going back to 40 more years of Pinochet constitution.
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Dec 17, 2023 22:35
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