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The Warszawa posted:Okay, the invocation of Western Imperialism has me baffled - what's the argument that Latin America isn't Western? It is incorrect to say "Western" Imperialism, you really should say "mostly American imperialism." quote:is the falling price of copper playing any role here? It isn't helping, copper make up over 50% of Chile's total exports, and reduced Chinese demand is going to hit them. However, the total drop in prices, is still below 10% this year. That said, much of South America is under pressure, and that is always going to hit Chilean exports. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Nov 26, 2014 |
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Nov 26, 2014 16:22
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Badera posted:That's because he's a Pinochet apologist, hth Yeah, but if anything his post shows more or less how bitterly divided Chilean politics are, especially since Bachelet is soft center-leftist and is hardly a Marxist firebrand. A 2% deficit isn't a nightmare, Chile desperately needs some types of educational reforms and it needs increased revenue/counter-cyclical spending.
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Nov 26, 2014 16:31
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wateroverfire posted:It's a broad topic but I´ll try to give some background. Chile exports copper and some other minerals, fish, agricultural products and wines, and timber, and imports most of everything else. There is some limited manufacturing here but it's expensive to do it (labor costs are high, tons of regulations to wade through) and quality tends to be bad. the U.S. is Chile's biggest trading partner (I think) and almost all trade is settled in dollars, so the peso/dollar exchange rate is a primary variable affecting and affected by the country's growth and inflation rates. Right now the peso is weak and weakeneing because of a combination of internal and external factors. Internally the political environment has investors nervous and they're parking their money in safer places. Externally, the fed is likely to raise interest rates and chilean central bank is lowering interest rates (due to a slowing economy) and copper is kind of low, all of which weakens the peso. It's a pretty bad combination of factors. So how exactly beyond the issue "scaring away investment with educational reforms" is the situation going to be fixed with American troops on the ground if copper and other exports are taking a hit? Should you raise interest rates with a economy increasingly coming under pressure? Just deregulate and hope American corporations bring manufacturing...even though you would have to compete with Vietnam for that investment? quote:Beyond that the educational reforms Chile needs are nothing like the ones being mooted, which are focused on elminiating PROFIT in public education (not joking, this isn't hyperbole). Education is a public good, the goal shouldn't be profit but quality and accessibility. The only way Chile is going to work its way out is focusing on industries that require universal and accessible education, it can't compete for low-tech manufacturing, that ship has long for much of the world. Basically, Chile's problem has always been a lack of economic diversity and this goes back a long time. It has improved mildly over time, but mining is still dominate and a declining demand in China and tepid demand in the first world isn't going to help. Also, the Peso started to devalue back in mid-2013, Bachelet took power in March 2014, maybe she is so bad she caused devaluation under Pinera? The reason she won in the first place was because Pinera was widely seen as corrupt, ineffectual and capricious. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Nov 26, 2014 |
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Nov 26, 2014 16:58
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wateroverfire posted:Like I said, Chile has very limited options for dealing with economic malaise compared to the states. Conundrums like "if we lower interest rates we will gently caress with the exchange rate" are real barriers to intervention. A good start would be to moderate the tone and abandon policies that are actively hostile to foreign investment, of which there are several. Modernizing labor laws would be another step. In the long term, as you point out, one of Chile´s major problems is a lack of economic diversity that goes back a long time and there is no facile solution for that. In the short term a lot has happened to scare away foreign capital and that is not making dealing with anything any easier. Modernizing labor laws is usually a code work for reduced worker rights and lower pay and benefits. It also unclear if Chile reduced worker rights to the bone what investment they would actually see beyond usual industries. quote:I agree with all of this. The question is how to get there, and the government's plan for education just doesn't do it. The big issue at the moment, for instance, is doing away with subsidies to the hybrid public-private schools - basically private schools where students receive a government subsidy to cover most of their tuition - and possibly buying them outright to make them fully public. Leaving aside the need to find $9-$17 billion dollars to pay for that (depending on whose valuation you accept), everyone hates this plan. Literally everyone. Because as lovely as private schools in Chile are, the public schools are worse and no parent wants their children to attend public schools. So there is a serious problem with quality and availability but it's not being addressed. They sound pretty similar to American style "vouchers" which is worse than even charter schools. "No one wants to go to public schools" but exactly how many of the poorest of the poor people afford these private schools because they aren't free. Basically, public schools have been so undercut that the middle class is now pushed to support private schools, but ultimately it is going to led to predictable social divisions because not everyone can afford private schools, and if something isn't done then the public system completely fails. quote:There was a long primary full of revolutionary rhetoric and bad ideas leading up to the election, and as Bachelet's prospective government began to take shape and did NOT moderate leading up to the general people with money got pretty concerned. So yeah, the nueva mayoria (her coalition) was affecting exchange rates back in 2013. Bachelet won partially because people hated the right but mostly because she was a figure of godlike popularity when she came back to Chile and was able to ride that personal appeal into a sweep. It really was a phenomenon. This sounds all like a lot of emotional charged wishful thinking, it is very clear Pinera was in big trouble. Basically, it more or less sounds like VERY similar to arguements I hear in the states all the time. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Nov 26, 2014 |
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Nov 26, 2014 20:19
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rscott posted:Eh, they (used to) make cars and poo poo in Australia Australia more or less went the resource export route predicated on Chinese consumption, we'll see how they end up. Also they are also having a currency weakness issue at the moment, maybe it is an economic thing not an ideological one? wateroverfire posted:Chilean labor law is pretty dumb in a lot of ways. Below are just a few: As other have said, most Americans wished they had those protections. Modernity in your manner of speaking means ultimately less protection for workers. As for fraud itself, there are ways to work with that beyond just cutting those protections. quote:You have to understand the context. The U.S. has a pretty functional public school system in places that aren't poor. Chile does not have a functional public school system and hasn't since ever, really. The voucher schools are a lovely alternative to a functional public school system but they're still BETTER than Chile's public schools. The poorest of the poor (rural Chile) are hosed, yeah. It sucks to be poor. Bachelet's plan will not make it suck any less. No one is talking about quality at this point - it's literally an ideological putsch against the concept of profit. Basically, it is a situation where a portion of the population has no hope of moving ahead because the state system has been under funded. It is broken and it needs to be fixed, and even if you believe many schools should remain privatized, there is little argument against greatly increase funding. quote:With respect, bro, you weren't here and you haven't followed the issue from inside the country. The right was going to lose but could have lost to a center-left figure like Andres Velasco, who was Bachelet's finance minister during her first term. Bachelet had huge star appeal that was pretty much unparallelled in Chilean politics. Now she's polling down around 50% iirc. She was president previously, and she is a known quantity, she wants going to have an advantage versus the right either way after Pinera. Anyway, the argument for tax based incentives is weakened by the fact that Chile has had them for a while, and the companies that were going to take advantage of them are already in Chile and weren't likely to leave based on relative marginal increases in taxation. Chile if anything clearly needs to improve quality of education across the population if it wants to remain competitive and a future based on mining (in my opinion) is going to be suffocate the country. Ultimately, I think Chile is in such a position Bachelet's presidency will come under pressure, not because she is a firebrand leftist, but because Chile is in a poor structural position. Basically, all countries with economics based on raw material exports or energy are having trouble at the moment and will likely continue to do so. Anyway, from what I have seen about recent politics, it is hardly just leftists on the offensive when there are plenty of rightist groups on the streets as well and the country is clearly polarized. (Knowing Chilean history, this isn't unpredictable) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Nov 26, 2014 |
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Nov 26, 2014 22:54
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Glenn Zimmerman posted:So, uh, any reasons the military response to this isn't working? Too limited? Government is dumb? Counterinsurgencies don't work? Probably because militaries make for poor police forces, and if society destabilizes to that extent, the military can pretty much keep the streets clear. Granted corruption and incompetence, including in the military and federal forces, is also a big issue in Mexico obviously. It is a case of effectively what are now warlords with secure revenue stream dividing up a country with weak state institutions and little leadership. That said, if anything it is surprising the US is letting this happen considering a stable Mexico is in its direct national interests.
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Nov 26, 2014 23:21
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Typo posted:According to D&D the solution to economic and political problem in every country is to just go more leftwards That is more or less a knee jerk reaction in the other direction. I am less and less impressed by responses that don't have really concrete economic rationales and just go for ideological tone like it is a football game. Chile has some serious issues that won't be fixed with lower taxes and labor reforms often happen at a cost to the population itself. You can point to fraud, but there is always the question of why are you getting rid of an entire policy to fight fraud in the first place. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 00:16
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Typo posted:This is seriously like the left-wing version of a tea party rally. "This thread is too left-wing" isn't an argument you know. Ultimately though you can ultimately argue that any Latin America thread will be the reverse of an Eastern European one. In Latin America, the US was the dominant interventionist force that spread its ideology through authoritarian regimes.
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Nov 27, 2014 00:22
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Typo posted:It is when the name "Pinochet" gets used as an excuse not to have to talk actual economic reforms and zombie It most likely kicked off because the OP started the thread asking for the US military to kick out a center-left moderate because of educational reforms. He has walked back from it, but it is pretty directly comparable to how the Eastern Europe thread reacts to pro-Russian posters (though Putin is ironically right-wing), just the shoe is on the other foot. Anyway, I have gone over his points and most of them see unsustainable beyond some pretty basic things like "workplace fraud isn't good." Spending money on educational is a super left-wing idea I know, but is going to be needed. Ultimately, the present government in Chile is quite center-leftist, and the Communists are a very minor part of the coalition compared to Christian Democrats. Typo posted:It seems like OP proposed some right wing policy and since it is Chile it automatically set off the rage factor, and everyone decided to just call the OP a Pinochist and call it a day. If you think the policies he's outlining are bad (and some of it seems to be) or unreasonable or you have a better solution, you should post it. But right wing+Chile=Pinochet is just lazy debating. I have been doing that, and by and large I think his argument is flawed on its basis or at least the problems he cites can be fixed relatively minorly. You don't have to get rid of sick leave because someone rampantly abuses it, and there may need to be more flexible contracts but having those protections for the existing system can be maintained. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:41 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 00:37
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Typo posted:What's wrong with having a more flexible labor market and better unemployment benefit vs a more rigid one? One issue is revenue, and Chile doesn't have corporate taxes in a classical sense which has where the government gets revenue. It does have a progressive income tax and profits from business are suppose to be included under it but the government still doesn't have enough money to work with it. Also, losing your job by getting sick isn't going to be really replaced by unemployment benefits which likely aren't going to cover your full costs. Basically, the employer is going to gain an advantage over their employees because the unemployment system is likely never going to be a replacement for an actual job. So if major reforms are instituted (like actually cutting those protections) it is almost certainly a net loss for workers, and to be honest, I don't think Chile's issue really are those protections in the first place. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 00:46
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Typo posted:Since you do seem to know more about modern Chile than me, how does corporate taxes in Chile work? I am not an Chilean tax accountant but I believe distributed profits are basically "passed through" to income tax where they are taxed at 20% (at the individual level) but they don't have a traditional tax on the corporations themselves. The proposal is to raise it to 27% and then introduce a more formal corporate tax on dividends. It certainly will increase taxes on all domestics and foreign corporations in Chile, but the argument is over the benefits of education funding versus any lost in investment. My argument is that worrying about any changes in foreign investment in the short term should be trumped by the fact that Chile needs to diversify if it wants to position itself better in a future where copper make not be king. I think Chile's real problem may be caught in a "middle income" trap where wages will still be way too high to attract manufacturing but its education and infrastructure won't really allow it to compete at the high end. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 01:23
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ronya posted:and sleazy caricatures are constructed along racist lines in Western media I always thought they were more stuck (dress and hairstyle wise) in the 1980s. Granted, much of it may not be industry but services, and water-rights issue are a separate ball of wax if your saying what I think you're saying.
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Nov 27, 2014 03:33
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icantfindaname posted:So how many middle class Americans do we have now saying wateroverfire is a Nazi for criticizing labor laws and that they clearly know what's wrong with LAmerica better than people who live there? 4? 5? It doesn't really work with Chile, took you until page 3 though. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 03:54
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Typo posted:The same is true of Argentina and natural gas, it's just that the government seems to be distinctively less successful there. Argentina still has obviously other issues, for example vulture funds.
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Nov 27, 2014 04:00
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CharlestheHammer posted:England Sucks doesn't agree with that but I guess you are the middle class American he should be listening too, unlike the rest of us posers. The irony is that he bemoaned "leftists middle class Americans" commenting on Chile, then started to give a bit of wisdom of his own that is nonsensical. Plenty parts of Latin America have weak labor laws and haven't become economic meccas.
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Nov 27, 2014 05:17
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ronya posted:I'm not sure it's separate. Wanting Chileans to be less poor is one thing. Wanting Chileans to be less poor whilst operating small farms in marginally arable scrubland is fantasy. The question is exactly how much of a debt drag of cutting water rights to the rural poor would actually benefit the economy especially if you don't have a place to put them (assuming you just let the farms dry up) and you let the educational system collapse at the same time. The informal economy is always going to exist but there actually seems little to be gained from cutting worker rights across the board. The goal should be integrating them into the system, not killing to system to save companies some labor costs. (It would also be the surest way to heightened tension.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 05:49
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ronya posted:Yes - Chile should seek to move them and then pursue development. That's not really in the direct interests of either the incumbent middle class (who would resent adding even more people) or the remaining rural poor (who would join the back of the queue of people integrating into the formal economy). So it's not going to happen. "Pursue development" is a bit vague unless you are citing a specific case that would actually benefit the country enough to make such large relocation a useful endeavor. Ultimately, it is just a race to the bottom that will likely impact consumption of those middle class workers, and create larger issues for the economy. You give the example of a social democratic government versus a teach union, when this is going to be companies being able to dramatically lower their labor costs at the cost of wages. Putting it together you are going to have the rural poor being run out of villages with little education while at the same time you deregulate labor costs as a boon to business, creating a massive army of reserve labor. I mean it may make profit for someone, but it is unclear where the country is going to go at that point once you break the back of the middle class and if anything increase unemployment. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 06:22 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 06:12
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ronya posted:The specific case I had in mind was the curious push to use expensive desalination to supply copper mining, which bundles expensive electricity and expensive water all in one. A typical Western perspective is the lazy one of arguing that there shouldn't be any mining at all, but I'm sure that it is more obvious to you that it isn't tenable, Chile needs the export revenue. No a desalination plan wouldn't make sense, and Chile needs copper exports but I think I would have to study to claims before I took a position of stripping way water rights without due process. We are talking about two different things happening at the same time (cutting labor protections versus increased immigration), cutting labor protections is a one way trip, once you cut them they will likely stay cut for a very long time and even if immigration drops, they aren't coming back. The "guilty" middle class claim is garbage. Ultimately, if anything immigrants are going to be harmed by lack of education spending in the long term, and their integration is going to be much harder to actually achieve. In this case though you are really talking about privileging the entrepreneurial class over the urban working class in the name of helping rural workers but ultimately it is actually going to be a good thing for Chile if small businesses simply consolidate their workers rather than hire or is consumption drops from wages. You are playing up the moralizing of it, when ultimately it boils down to what the hard results of this would be. That said, I suspect you also probably think offshoring is a good idea as well (you eventually run out of consumers). Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:41 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 07:37
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ronya posted:I'm not sure what to make of your argument. I never mentioned education spending, but since you raise the point, I will say that it is important to track whose education is being funded. The present backlash against Bachelet's plans are predictably led by middle-class parents demanding the continuation of subsidies for fee-charging middle-class schools. This is characteristic of the guilty middle class phenomenon - for as long as social democratic parties support education spending, they endorse it, but if it means cuts to their own existing subsidies, they hastily withdraw their support. Free stuff is always good. If there's not enough revenue to support free stuff, then it's someone else's fault. Yes, my point is that the education plans need to go forward despite middle class opposition, Chile is going to let too much talent go to waste if it loses effective universal education. The government might have to back was from making private/public schools fully public, but the subsidies need to be trimmed. quote:You say: it would be better for small businesses to simply consolidate their workers rather than hire. Certainly! Better for the incumbent workers. Not so good for the unhired. That is the point I was making. I am not saying that the entrepreneurial class should be privileged. I am saying it will be privileged, as a straightforward fait accompli from a moderate government steadily reducing the percentage of people in subsistence agriculture (and using two decades of relatively high copper prices to paper over costs of transition). In fact it has already been privileged for a while now. It will continue to do so until Chile runs out of domestic people to add to the labour pool - better hope that the copper lasts until then. I didn't mean to say it was better, but it very well may happen. The question is the necessity of cutting labor protections at the same time. If rural migrants have access to education they may very well slowly but surely have access to those same rights rather than have them completely gutted when it is their turn. The entrepreneurial class is going to be doing fine either way and doesn't need a hand out. As for water rights, I am fully aware the Chilean system of water rights is quite different, nevertheless it is an open question if the government needs to dramatically change those rights by fiat or a compromise can be reached that is moderately more costly but more sustainable. The government has a interest in not having to spend a ton of money to desalinate its water, nevertheless while copper is still going to be important, if mines simply become unprofitable then the need mostly vanishes until global demand returns. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 13:16
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wateroverfire posted:That's certainly a point of view, I guess. Not good for the people left unemployed, for the companies, for the treasuries, for other small businesses, etc, but sure I guess the employees who don't get squeezed out during consolidation are doing alright. A fluid labor market would be better. Doing worker protection in a way that doesn't create perverse incentives that feed back into lower wages would be better (that is the dynamic created by #1 I mentioned above). Having sick time, basically state-provided short-term disability insurance, is fine if the state would enforce the actual rules. Spending more on education is fine. A good idea. But not willy-nilly on a plan that doesn't address quality or access. Unfortunately, in Chile, none of those things are easy to fix except by abstracting away the politics. It was a sleep deprived typo, but I think it will happen eventually either way, but it will just be quicken by removing labor protections. If posters are worried about labor protections "choking the country to death" I think their fears are inflated simply because labor supply is likely to increase, labor protection need to be more flexible to an extent to protect them but the flexibility needed is probably going to be far different than what they want. As for the politics of Chile itself, the country is very polarized and historical memory is a big thing, it very well may better if some horse-trading happened and labor protections were modified, made more flexible in certain areas and then stronger in others and the same thing with educational reforms but there seems to be very little chance of consensus. It also makes laws harder to actually apply since there will be extra-parliamentary politics resistance. That said, I think that it is simply part of Chile's national psyche at this point and there isn't much to be done. quote:Why these plans in particular, though? They are not going to result in effective universal education and Chile doesn't have effective universal education to lose. They are going to move in a better direction if only through increased funding, and some equalization. Chile doesn't have effective universal education now but the question is how you are going to get there without that funding or addressing some of the stark differences in education. It very well be a better set of reforms could theoretically happen but I just don't see it happening in Chilean politics, so it is binary choice. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 13:31
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ronya posted:The government did, in fact, order mines to stop outbidding communities for water for new mines, so it already changed things by fiat. Nonetheless the mining companies seem to be taking the position that no government would have had the political capital to allow them to access the water anyway, since industry websites seem to have been steadily buzzing about the oncoming problem for a while now. Certainly nobody puts together plans for a desalination plant in months. There isn't a firm line but as copper prices continue to drop there is a question of utility of the government shifting its position in order to improve profitability that may only be temporary. It isn't purely about the environmental aspects of it but it is a political decision that is going to have to take global prices and government revenue into account and obvious political liability is going to be a part of it as in every liberal(ish) system.
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Nov 27, 2014 13:47
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ronya posted:Yup. I agree, esp on political liability. Hence why I initially said: Well, I won't be surprised if political stability takes a big hit. There is clearly slowing of demand and currently copper is at 2.96. What you are most likely going to see is a lack of consensus as both right and left wing groups on the streets are (from what I have heard) radicalizing. However, this is been a long topic discussion for a while among people who expected Chinese growth to follow historical trends, and it was from from a consensus even a year ago. Now obviously everyone accepts a Chinese slowdown, but it took literally for it to happen for everyone to admit it.
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Nov 27, 2014 18:22
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wateroverfire posted:Curious which right wing groups are on the streets. What's your source for that? http://santiagotimes.cl/chiles-coup-40-years-on-pinochetistas-and-the-active-far-right/ (admittedly it isn't about street politics) Also, if you want to go that far Vice media has a mini-doc on recent bombings. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Chilean-Government-to-Use-Undercover-Agents-after-Terrorist-Attacks--20140914-0009.html quote:Since July, at least four bombs have detonated in the country, injuring 17 people. The biggest attack happened on Monday in the subway of Santiago, Chile's capital city. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Nov 27, 2014 |
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Nov 27, 2014 19:04
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wateroverfire posted:I've seen the Vice documentary. Um...I would take with great skepticism what "some" suspect. The source is probably a politician in the left wing of Nueva Mayoria and, well, they would say that. Violence is mostly attributed to the anarchist groups, which are very active in Chile. In this case three suspects have been arrested so I guess we could do some digging and look for their actual affiliations. Hopefully they won't be released like the last bunch, who were later picked up for doing a bombing in Spain. To me the bombing themselves aren't as important as the discourse in Chile, which I do think it very polarized. quote:Eh. Like I said, if Bachelet hadn't swept the primaries with her star appeal we would have most likely ended up with center-leftist Andres Velasco as president. In that case the tone would have been much more moderate and education reform could have happened in a more productive way. But right now, yeah, there is very little chance of consensus. Most likely in a year or two the center of the Nueva Mayoria will bolt and Bachelet´s coalition will be broken. Then, well, who can say. But there is IMO a third way. I think the issue is that most people, including Americans see Bachelet as a center-leftist herself, her coalition may fall apart but I don't know how much reforms can be watered down at this point especially on the revenue side. That said, preferring her opposition in the primary at this point is a far cry from where this thread started in the first place. I wouldn't be surprised if you had "revolving door" coalitions as the government themselves really can't affect much change if the macro-economic situation remains poor globally.
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Nov 28, 2014 18:26
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Badger of Basra posted:Honestly it seems like Peña Nieto is hosed for the rest of his term, especially if stuff like this keeps happening. No matter how many sloppy blowjobs he gets from The Economist for "reform," he is on track to be almost as unpopular as Calderón, which I didn't even think was possible. Granted, he has ever right to be the target of that ire, that said it doesn't seem Mexico has really anywhere to go. If anything I guess the US economy being somewhat stable if a saving grace, otherwise it might turn into a "cold versus pneumonia" situation.
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Nov 29, 2014 03:37
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bagual posted:Has anyone read Galeano in here? I've been reading my girlfriend's copy of Days and nights of love and war, it's a loving bombshell, I really should get on reading his work, any reccomendations? (except open veins of latin america, which is the next up on the list) If I wanted to get into Galeano, where would I start (I assume I would be force to read in English)?
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Jan 5, 2015 13:30
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Nonsense posted:The Putin of the South. Yeah that is the second time you tried to link them together as pretty much "on the same side." That said, it would be interesting to actually look at the recent history of the last 25 years of both countries together. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Jan 28, 2015 |
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Jan 28, 2015 17:19
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Badger of Basra posted:I thought Scioli was a shoo-in? Not according to the polls even before the scandal, and I can't think of this helping FJ or Scioli at this point. It looks like it might be wraps for the left in Argentina and as another poster said, a return to the 1990s.
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Feb 4, 2015 01:40
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I wouldn't be surprised if they ever returned to power that inequality would spike again as Lula-era reforms get dismantled. Also, the economic malaise Brazil is going through is largely because of China not some fantasy that the PT had turned Brazil into a command economy. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the right cheer with the dismantling of reformist-left wing governments in South America, it is winner take all after all.
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Apr 1, 2015 08:22
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If Brazil is going to compete with Bangladesh they need to get with the times. Brazil was getting to dangerously low levels of vertical inequality anyway. Also, the next right-wing wave across Latin America is going to be something to truly behold. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 12:08 on Apr 10, 2015 |
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Apr 10, 2015 12:03
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bagual posted:New Datafolha research came out, apparently 63% of brazilians approve impeaching the president but 12% could name who would replace her. Only 36% of respondents could name the vice-president. Beyond just impeachment itself, the whole irony of this is that a big portion of the anger is at continuing austerity policies that the other parties would likely only increase and corruption that no doubt wouldn't cease either. I mean frankly to be honest, I don't see a lot of good options for Brazilians period. Ultimately, the PT had an impossible mission to begin with and lot has improved for Brazilians but you are only going to get burnt with austerity policy even if you are financially trapped.
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Apr 12, 2015 20:10
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Traveller posted:Meanwhile, in Chile: the Caval affair is OFF THA loving HOOK So basically almost all of the Chilean political spectrum is involved? Maybe the end of the pink wave will just end up with no one winning.
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Apr 12, 2015 20:36
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PerpetualSelf posted:How the gently caress do you call for the impeachment of a president after just reelecting her? Eh you don't really give a poo poo about anything else than your side wins?
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Apr 12, 2015 21:57
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A big source of inequality in Brazil is because of its tax system, taking import taxes outside of consideration, Brazilians still pay 30-42% in consumption taxes on pretty much all products and the income tax code maxes out around $18,000 a year. Granted, Brazil also has protectionist income taxes that don't help either (Brazil still doesn't have a world caliber electronics industry). It is very hard on the working and lower middle class, and very generous on people at the very top. I have a feeling though that the right doesn't want to add more income tax brackets and lessen consumption taxes though. Overall, it generally speaks of really how little changed under the PT more than what changed. Certain programs were very effective, but ultimately the structure of Brazilian society remained very vertical.
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Apr 13, 2015 09:55
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Badger of Basra posted:Just read the first puff piece about Mauricio Macri, from the AP. I love how the wire services do one for the center right candidate in every Latin American election. Eh the Cold War never ended, just one side just kept on playing against itself.
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Apr 17, 2015 16:17
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joepinetree posted:The goal here is less actually dismantling PT and more to keep the "PT is a criminal organization that should be terminated" narrative going. I guess it shows, at least in the case of Brazil, that going for a moderate social-democratic path leads to the same route as a hard-line Marxist-Leninist path. I guess it isn't enough to beat the center-left, you need to destroy them and scatter them to the winds. I wonder what will happen to Lula era programs if a hard-edged right-wing government comes to power. My hope for Brazil is getting a bit fragile. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Apr 19, 2015 |
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Apr 19, 2015 10:35
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Yggdrassil posted:Yeah, i know... at least he has a small chance in the city. As far as economics goes how does the UNEN compare to the PJ? I know there was some controversy about working with PRO after the election. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 14:05 on Apr 28, 2015 |
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Apr 28, 2015 13:43
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Yggdrassil posted:Regarding the city or the country? Those are two completely different beasts. Nation-wide, I know they really aren't in the running for president.
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Apr 28, 2015 14:06
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Yggdrassil posted:It's hard to tell what would happen if UNEN rose to power, but most of them could be identified with social democrats. The biggest socialist parties and the UCR are there. Economically, they are focused on getting control back on our national industries and to work on health and education as priorities, supposedly. It sounds like a very "enemy of my enemy situation", but I guess it is a question of who comes out on top when the dust clears. If Macri won, would it be possible for him to work mostly with right-wing parties in congress (for example PJ dissidents) and push the rest of the UNEN to the sidelines? Would instead the UDI be an honest broker? I mean I guess these are impossible questions to answer without the election results but it could certainly work out unpredictably. Has anyone said what they would do with the Peso? Obviously major devaluation and capital controls are a big issue, but at everyone knows Argentina is also broke. If dollarization or revaluation happened, where would the resources come to support it? I mean I guess you can connect all of this through PJ through Menem, but since 1998, it seems like the effective continuation of the crisis. Markovnikov posted:The main problem nowadays is what someone justly called the "cult of the dollar". With 30% annual inflation, the peso is wothless, so people try to save in dollars. To staunch the bleeding of dollars, a bunch of restrictions on imports and currency exchange were imposed, which of course don't sit well with the middle class (the upper classes are too rich to care, the lower ones too poor). There is currently a restriction on changing pesos into dollars, but that restriction also established a price that is not in accordance to what it should be (so we are back into some sort of 90's convertibility), so many exporting industries have lost competitiveness. What's the point in exporting, if the dollars they get can only be changed into a meager amount of pesos because the official exchange rate is lower than it should be? You could raise the exchange rate, but then the middle classes would cry bloody tears and inflation would shoot up again, since we still rely on a lot of imports. The situation is not easy, and whoever the next government is is going to have a general clusterfuck in its hands. Basically there is no easy solution unless the government finds a hidden mountain of gold under the treasury. Otherwise Argentina could always taken out IMF loans to support a harder currency, but I think we know where that path leads. Another thing obviously is if you raise the official exchange, and if the government doesn't raise spending in accordance, then you start sapping state wages, pensions and whatever state support exists. However, a mock exchange rate obviously has its own issues, it promotes a grey market for conversion, hurts exporters as you say and hides the damage that has happened. I think most people who simply want a harder currency but that is much easier said than done. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Apr 28, 2015 |
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Apr 28, 2015 16:08
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rockopete posted:Yeah. As a non Argentine with no dog in this fight, I remember seeing the news about the default in the early 2000s, and your government is right back there again? I can't see how anyone is for Kirchner based on that record alone. And of course no one does, but that's an unusually clear record. Add in the Nisman thing to really nail it home. Was Nestor at least competent in some way? At least form what I read, the crisis back in the late 90s and early 2000s was far worse, but in order to get out of it Argentina was stuck with legacies that were difficult to get out of. Nestor at least statistically stabilized the situation, but obviously under Christina inflation has spiked as the government has reduced intervention against its currency. Oddly enough currency reserves have risen since 2013, possibly due to the Chinese currency swap. Also, foreign investment is almost certainty not going to come from cutting back spending. Argentina is in a middle income trap and probably has been in one since the later half of the 20th century. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 08:33 on Apr 29, 2015 |
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Apr 29, 2015 08:07
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