Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Zypher posted:

Here we go again

you're missing the slow draft that you forgot you signed up for!

check the other thread

# ¿ May 4, 2015 16:54

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 11:18

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

**** ESPN MOCK DRAFT LOBBY IS OPEN ****

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/mockdraftlobby

# ¿ May 15, 2015 01:05

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

that's a lot of words and numbers that end up meaning nothing as soon as the draft actually starts and you just go by instinct after thinking about the perfect draft strategy for the last 6 months. fwiw I've had the 1st spot once and 2nd spot twice in the past 3 years in 10 teams and have won all those years. I really don't know if draft position means all that much when you have a mix of people who know and don't really know what they're doing.

Varg fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Jun 12, 2015

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 16:24

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

I drafted and held onto Jeremy Hill all last year apart from 1 week when I dropped him out of frustration and then picked him back up the next week before he became super useful

basically if you're going to hold onto a player, make sure it's an RB that has a shot

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 21:30

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Footballguys posted:

CLE - RB Duke Johnson seen as three-down player

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Cleveland Browns RB Duke Johnson is viewed as a three-down running back by the Browns' coaching staff as he continues to draw rave reviews.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Johnson can be used effectively as a receiver out of the backfield, but we think he could wear down if used frequently in a full-time role. He's certainly a three-down player, but Johnson is best used in a RBBC. Johnson will split time with Isaiah Crowell this season.

yeah don't draft a Brown

# ¿ Jun 18, 2015 02:57

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

gently caress kaep gently caress boldin gently caress 49ers players this year lol

# ¿ Jun 24, 2015 01:55

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

VDay posted:

The one thing's higher than the other thing, what more do you need to know?

I need a point on the graph labeled CHARLES SIMS PROJECTION or else this thing is useless

# ¿ Jun 27, 2015 00:26

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Cervixalot posted:

I just joined that Goon MFL and we need some more people to get in on this. You'll be doing all of your drafts in about a month or so, and this is infinitely better practice than any mock drafts that you'll do.

well okay you sold me, I'm in.. I guess this thing has to fill up all the spots before the league page is created? I haven't ever done a real one of these

# ¿ Jul 9, 2015 01:03

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

RisqueBarber posted:

Who would you guys take here (Red are players taken)? To me its between Blount and Boldin.

12 Team - 0 PPR - 1QB (16) / 2RB (41) / 3WR (44) / 1TE (17) / 0FLX / 1DST / 1PK
Passing: 6 PPTD, 0.04 PPY, -2 Int | Rushing: 6 PPTD, 0.1 PPY | Receiving: 6 PPTD, 0.1 PPY, 0 PPR | Updated: 2015-07-05

doesn't matter cause you should already have at least 2 WRs at that point and you have none?

# ¿ Jul 10, 2015 17:37

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

I think people are also gonna take Gronk too early and screw themselves this year. I can't justify taking a TE in the 1st no matter who it is.

# ¿ Jul 22, 2015 19:36

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

89 posted:

Damnit, I'm trying to think of a great way of determining draft order this year. Maybe some kind of video game simulation?

I have to try to figure out something every year for 10 people who are all over the place and can't get together to do any competition. Last year I used the world cup and we did a random pick out of hat order first to get an order to pick out what team you wanted to be matched with, and your draft order was determined in what order those teams finished in. I picked Argentina so I had 2nd pick. This year we didn't have anything picked out until last week when I suggested we use the PGA championship that runs August 13-16, and we'll just randomly pick out the top 10 golfers names by vegas odds to win out of one hat and our names out of another hat to match them up, whatever place they finish in determines our draft order. Everyone seemed to be fine with that.

# ¿ Jul 24, 2015 02:11

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

JPP's Fantasy Fingers... obviously

# ¿ Jul 27, 2015 20:18

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Prophecy120 posted:

As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league.

They are both underrated QBs from last year (#9 and #10 in QB ranking on ESPN standard leagues), both have more weapons than they did last year, and both are going well into the 100's. Manning now has a full year of Odel Beckham making one handed TD catches and Tannehill has his legs for an extra 40 to 60 rushing yards a game. I think the risk of either of them busting is well worth the ADP. Thoughts?

can't talk you out of it cause this is basically what I do every year, and have grabbed both these guys very late in a bunch of 10 team mocks this year

# ¿ Jul 28, 2015 17:21

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

RG3 ruined RG3.. I knew he was gonna be a bust before he was drafted, where's my NFL analyst job?

# ¿ Jul 29, 2015 20:40

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Metapod posted:

Do you have a journalism degree or nfl playing/coaching experience?

negative! honestly I just want Skip Bayless's job, anyone can do that

# ¿ Jul 29, 2015 21:01

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Doltos posted:

and would want to avoid age 30 one year off of football Peterson and Marshawn 'literally 350 carries every year and is bound to break down or have his TDs vultured soon sometime' Lynch.

Footballguys posted:

MIN - RB Adrian Peterson won't be limited

Source: USA TODAY Sports - Tom Pelissero

Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson will still receive a heavy workload this season, according to head coach Mike Zimmer. Zimmer said Peterson will be given as much as he can take.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Peterson could rush for over 1,500 yards this year, and he may go over 2,000 all-purpose yards in 2015. Fantasy owners should look at him as a top-5 fantasy running back even though he's coming off a mostly missed season in 2014.

Footballguys posted:

MIN - Adrian Peterson to see goal-line touches?

Source: USA TODAY Sports - Tom Pelissero

The Minnesota Vikings plan to give RB Adrian Peterson a heavy workload heading into the season. 'As much as he can take, and as much as he can handle in all the things that we're doing,' head coach Mike Zimmer said Monday, July 27. 'Obviously, we're going to have to spell him at times like you do a lot of guys. But we get down on the goal line, and we're probably not pulling him out, you know? He's our best player, and we're going to continue to use him.'

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Viking should use Peterson as much as they possibly can--and in any way they can. A heavy workload for Peterson is music to fantasy owners ears.

# ¿ Jul 30, 2015 17:42

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Sataere posted:

I won't be drafting AD, but I expect him to have a monster year. I think there are some guys that you just have to assume will never age and always be good, because they are that good. AD is one of those guys.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25247799/look-adrian-peterson-is-ripped-and-in-ridiculously-good-shape

indeed

# ¿ Jul 31, 2015 00:35

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

Shaming people into not picking AP so that he drops to me is how I plan to win my leagues this year

my brother is still so mad at him for ruining his season last year that he's going to seriously try to draft an entire team of white players this time to avoid the suspensions/arrests on his roster (he's not very good at this stuff anyway)

# ¿ Jul 31, 2015 02:00

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Spoeank posted:

I really want to do a 2 K, 2 DST, 2 TE, 3 QB chaos league

I'd be down, 8 team league for this would be amazing lol. also need bonus points for stupid poo poo

# ¿ Aug 3, 2015 17:22

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

89 posted:

I'm thinking drafting Bradford is a great idea.

ONLY if you also draft Sanchez.

I can't wait till they both go down/suck bad this season

and then watch the Giants obliterate Tebow week 17

# ¿ Aug 4, 2015 02:38

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Its Miller Time posted:

I've created a second goon MFL10 best ball league. I'll update this when it starts.

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2015/public?O=12&ACTION=LIST&PASSWORD=goonsquad2015

hey 4 more people should join this so we can start it

# ¿ Aug 5, 2015 18:39

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

That doesn't sound like the kind of thing you play football after.

lol right? and initial reports were saying he should be back this year..

# ¿ Aug 5, 2015 22:21

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

DeSean Jackson sucks at training camp lol

# ¿ Aug 6, 2015 19:34

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Footballguys just emailed out an entire list of who to follow on twitter for every team's fantasy purposes.. I might actually pay attention to twitter now. I put it into an excel file in case anyone who's not subscribed to their mailings is interested. BeerGod feel free to add this to the OP too if you want

https://www.dropbox.com/s/e2td2v607i1oexx/fantasy-football-twitter.xls?dl=0

# ¿ Aug 10, 2015 17:13

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

I'm just gonna draft Owen Daniels and hope Peyton likes him

# ¿ Aug 11, 2015 21:58

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

FF2015: where the opinions are stupid and tight ends don't matter

# ¿ Aug 12, 2015 04:13

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Hopkins is pretty good

but I'm still likely going to pass over him for a receiver with a more competent QB

# ¿ Aug 13, 2015 18:19

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I would give serious consideration towards keeping Hopkins over Charles or Anderson in that situation.

okay now you're just being silly

e: oh wait he only starts one RB? well then maybe so :shrug:

Varg fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Aug 14, 2015

# ¿ Aug 14, 2015 14:22

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

not fuckin drafting sankey again this year, no no no

# ¿ Aug 19, 2015 04:19

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

he's bad, titans are bad, don't draft any of them

# ¿ Aug 19, 2015 04:29

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

there's a video on NFL.com of Kelvin's injury (don't bother looking it's just your usual stupid non-contact torn ACL :negative:

)

# ¿ Aug 19, 2015 15:53

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

I do way too many ESPN mock drafts for the small amount of useful knowledge I get in return. Mostly I just do them to get a feel on how long I can wait and not get hosed on having a couple decent QBs. I figure out what rounds they usually disappear and then plan to take them a couple rounds earlier than that in my real draft since my friends don't know how to wait on them

# ¿ Aug 19, 2015 21:57

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Leperflesh posted:

If your friends are reaching for QBs too early, the way to react is to draft the good players they're skipping over on their reaches, and then make do with a couple of later-tier QBs who you can stream for reasonable if not spectacular points. Copying their poor decisions only means you're also making a poor decision.

oh I do, this is how I've won the league the past 3 years straight. I just target the last few serviceable QBs and attempt to grab them before anyone grabs them as their 2nd QB.

# ¿ Aug 19, 2015 22:22

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

TommyGun85 posted:

if youve won your league 3 years in a row you should find a new league because even through sheer luck someone else should win it......or stop lying.

2012 - 12 teams

2013 - 10 teams

2014 - 10 teams

I have stolen all the luck apparently

# ¿ Aug 20, 2015 00:21

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

RisqueBarber posted:

Why would you put a hot wing on your pizza? It seems inconvenient to try to eat around the bone.

TommyGun85 posted:

I too am confused about the concept of wings on pizza...seems like you would be ruining both

are you guys kidding me right now? do you live in a strange land where no place offers buffalo wing pizzas?

# ¿ Aug 20, 2015 15:19

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

lol there's no bones in the wings, just the chicken and buffalo sauce on the pizza

You know you're all going to want to find one for dinner tonight now.

# ¿ Aug 20, 2015 15:31

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

LOL we just drafted earlier today and my brother was still insistent on drafting an all white team after his experience with Adrian Peterson last year, this is what he did, and he deserves the loving punishment

QB: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer
RB: Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead, Toby Gerhart, Roy Helu
WR: Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker, Cole Beasley, Cody Latimer, Brian Hartline
TE: Greg Olsen, Zach Ertz

took Jordy Nelson with his first pick lmfao, he wanted to then take Aaron Rodgers #2 but someone else blocked him from that

Varg fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Aug 23, 2015

# ¿ Aug 23, 2015 20:18

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

he's our Taco, never plays to win at all. I guess the non-white guys were close enough for him. He has named his team "Law Abiding Citizens"

# ¿ Aug 23, 2015 20:34

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

I think my league commish just informally offered to trade me Lynch for Ellington + Landry. I'm gonna give him a little bit to think that over because thats just straight robbery and others would likely veto anyway... ah preseason

# ¿ Sep 1, 2015 16:06

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 11:18

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

actually it seems we don't have a veto option enabled for people to use anymore.. good.. only the commish can cancel it... If he actually sends that offer to me then I'm going to accept it and see who calls him out for being dumb first. It's standard not ppr.

# ¿ Sep 1, 2015 16:33

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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