|
Movies tend to jump on debut, then settle down until release day. EDIT: To elaborate: There's usually a big rush of buys on the first day or during the first week of a stock releasing, then all the people who bought it just to get a bump off of that rush sell it because they want that money free for other things. Holding something like AB2 long would eventually make a lot of money but in the short term, the opportunity cost of tying up all that capital might not be worth it. boar guy fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Sep 22, 2016 |
#
?
Sep 22, 2016 15:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 26, 2024 17:07 |
|
|
I've been making spreadsheets. Theses are my estimated best starbonds for the foreseeable future, based on roi%. I'm dropping Russell so I can put money into these. Russell is basically going to double, and at 3m its nice but I should be able to grab the same amount of money quicker on a 70% less investment on KREIL. JWEAV - 915% Adjust 10/4 CDFRA - 1062% Adjust 10/11 JKSIM - 511% Adjust 1/10 NCAGE - 667% Adjust 1/31 KREIL - 1142% Adjust 2/7 Alfred Molina and David Oyelo are other goods at ~400-450%.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 16:54
|
|
|
ButtWolf posted:I've been making spreadsheets. Theses are my estimated best starbonds for the foreseeable future, based on roi%. I'm dropping Russell so I can put money into these. Russell is basically going to double, and at 3m its nice but I should be able to grab the same amount of money quicker on a 70% less investment on KREIL. 
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 17:08
|
|
|
ButtWolf posted:I've been making spreadsheets. Theses are my estimated best starbonds for the foreseeable future, based on roi%. I'm dropping Russell so I can put money into these. Russell is basically going to double, and at 3m its nice but I should be able to grab the same amount of money quicker on a 70% less investment on KREIL. Good picks! Now add a "days until adjust" column to your spreadsheet and divide those percentages by it. Daily return on investment (DROI) is everything in this game.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 17:36
|
|
|
Terrorist Fistbump posted:Good picks! Now add a "days until adjust" column to your spreadsheet and divide those percentages by it. Daily return on investment (DROI) is everything in this game. NIce. Will do. What would a good DROI% be? Looks like 1% is exceptional by the naked eye, .3% is good. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Sep 23, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 17:49
|
|
|
2% and above for portfolios up to 25m, 1% up to 100m, 0.5% up to 200m. These are rough numbers, of course, and can change based on what else is in your portfolio besides starbonds. I'm over 200m and have started going below 0.35% just to park my spare cash. I'm probably due for a strategy overhaul soon. It gets really hard to make decent money the more of it you have.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 18:04
|
|
|
The problem with a lot of money is the max shares. With 50 mill in your acct, there's a great bond thats only gonna take 250k to get into. That's why I'm gonna take some of these .3%'s because there just aren't enough bonds that are going to do any better. The DROI% on stuff like SCIFI bonds is really bad, but if you've got the extra cash, like you said, park it.. Also, SHORT Paul Giamatti immediately. Whats the avg loss per trade? Like the commission thingy? I've reordered some stuff and am down $35k. About 5k per trade? ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Sep 23, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 19:41
|
|
|
It's 1% to make any trade. So, buying and immediately selling a security will cost you ~2% of what you paid.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 20:17
|
|
|
Cool. Yeah I had to dump some unfavorable .5% to get on a big train. Totally worth it, just wondering. If you've got Donnie Yen, don't dump in January. Wait till Feb for another 200k. It's actually a better DROI%. PGIAM JWEAV CDFRA EHAWK AMOLI DOYEL REVER TOJON These are good picks. Pay no mind to my list from earlier today. Although they aren't bad. I had to stop looking so far in future and am going to try to limit myself to 120 days, but some might be too juicy to pass up. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Sep 23, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2016 22:25
|
|
|
STORK is down $10 in the past 24 hours  a million in gains
|
|
#
?
Sep 24, 2016 23:03
|
|
|
Terrorist Fistbump posted:STORK is down $10 in the past 24 hours i bought and held terminator 5 long
|
|
#
?
Sep 24, 2016 23:19
|
|
|
Efexeye posted:i bought and held terminator 5 long 
|
|
#
?
Sep 24, 2016 23:28
|
|
|
hot tip: you can make  a share if you pick up PETS.BW between now and tomorrow at 4pm PST
|
|
#
?
Sep 25, 2016 20:36
|
|
|
Thanks! I got real excited until I realized I picked that up a couple of weeks ago, but then I got excited again bc it means $. Do they all lag so far behind on box office numbers? Its been clear for a while now that it was gonna be way over. Seems like cheating... are there any other BWs that are good right now? 489k buy-in right now. Mojo says 360 mil. Will it delist at 60? If so i got a full triple out of it and that makes me happy. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Sep 25, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 25, 2016 23:22
|
|
|
ButtWolf posted:Thanks! I got real excited until I realized I picked that up a couple of weeks ago, but then I got excited again bc it means $. Do they all lag so far behind on box office numbers? Its been clear for a while now that it was gonna be way over. Seems like cheating... are there any other BWs that are good right now? Box Office Warrants generally open at a price far below what they're likely to make by the 12 week mark. Most of those shares are snapped up at the IPO price, and there usually isn't enough volume afterwards in order to significantly alter the price. As a result, they're often a pretty good investment.
|
|
#
?
Sep 25, 2016 23:32
|
|
|
ATTN! Everyone short Toby Jones immediately. He's dropping 20% today if you need fast cash or you can wait until Nov 1. By my estimation, the $1m you spend today will be $42m in November. If you wait until tomorrow to buy your $1m will net you ~$25m in November.
|
|
#
?
Sep 26, 2016 15:52
|
|
|
ButtWolf posted:ATTN! Everyone short Toby Jones immediately. He's dropping 20% today if you need fast cash or you can wait until Nov 1. By my estimation, the $1m you spend today will be $42m in November. If you wait until tomorrow to buy your $1m will net you ~$25m in November. Shorting any property (moviestock, starbond, derivative) can only give you a maximum return of 100%. So if you invested $1m, the maximum that position could be worth is $2m.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2016 02:54
|
|
|
What? Thats dumb.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2016 05:44
|
|
|
ButtWolf posted:What? Thats dumb. It's not a game mechanic, it's just how the math works. The best case is that the stock goes from whatever you paid per share down to 0, which is a 100% decrease. I'm not sure how you arrived at the $42m figure.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2016 06:37
|
|
|
Baronash posted:It's not a game mechanic, it's just how the math works. The best case is that the stock goes from whatever you paid per share down to 0, which is a 100% decrease. I'm not sure how you arrived at the $42m figure. Yeah Math is dumb. I was thought it was just like buying, but reverse. So shorting is still pretty good, in some cases. You will make a nice profit off of Toby Jones today anyway, and then you can re-short for November double money. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Sep 27, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2016 13:41
|
|
|
OK, tell me if I'm doing this correctly please. I want to learn everything well. code:Would that be something to get into? It won't be what we made of PETS.BW, but seems pretty good. The buy-in and sell have built in 1% trade fee. For expected, I just looked at similar movies and how much they made in their last 4 weeks @ BO and kind of guessed. CHANGE TODAY H$926,950.17 (21.98%) I like seeing this. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Sep 27, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2016 16:06
|
|
|
Just noticed that the Blockbuster Warrants for Bad Moms and Star Trek Beyond have surpassed the strike prices. Not sure how long it'll be until they drop, but they're guaranteed to cut back with at least something.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2016 00:09
|
|
|
code:ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Sep 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 17:28
|
|
|
Looks like your ROI math isn't quite right. The formula in terms of prices is ROI = (Sell - Buy) / Buy or in your terms, simply Profit/Buy-in. SULLY.BW just IPO'd like an hour ago. The movie only needs to make $21 million more (it's at $94m after 3 weekends) for the BW to break even.
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 18:01
|
|
|
Is it because of 1% trade fee added in? Im away from pc right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 18:09
|
|
|
I don't think so. Using your numbers, actual ROI on the Suicide Squad BW is 374,320/335,200 = 111.67%. It looks like you used Profit/Sell as the formula: 374,320/709,520 = 52.76%
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 18:15
|
|
|
Indeed I did. Got column labels mixed up. Thanks. edit: Even though I'm loving up all this math, I'm #3 this week. I know what to pick, just am not good at calculating exactly how much.  I've got a spreadsheet now for almost all buys for a year. Based on other Tom Hanks movies of around the same stature, I think Sully will end up around $125-130m. That would be a 3x-4x profit right now. It's tempting. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Sep 30, 2016 |
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 20:39
|
|
|
Uggh the login problem is killing me.
|
|
#
?
Sep 30, 2016 14:18
|
|
|
PIRT5 is undervalued by at least half if you can afford to hold it that long, and up almost $6 today
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 16:32
|
|
|
Good tip, thanks. Let's hope summer 2017 is better for blockbusters than this one!
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 16:59
|
|
|
Terrorist Fistbump posted:Good tip, thanks. Let's hope summer 2017 is better for blockbusters than this one! There's certain titles I will always hold long no matter what. I mean I am down over 2 million on LEGO2 right now but when it hits, it'll hit big. I've just been playing long enough to carry the loss- i really don't day trade very much. I bought NCRD2 at $75 and if it doesn't hit $350 by the time all is said and done I'll be shocked. Got INDI5 at $39, too. Just a long time to wait.
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 17:12
|
|
|
INDI5 at $39 is a very nice get. I don't do a whole lot of long-term holds, but I've still got a few sure things lined up. I picked up CARS3 in June for $111 and I expect to make just under double that in profit. The price is still very good now, actually. I've also got a couple smaller animated films (BOSSB and CROD2) that will give me a good payoff even if they make under $100 million. Someone earlier in the thread said that animated films are generally priced well below where they should be until right before they are released, and aside from the bomb that was Storks I've found that to be true.
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 19:02
|
|
|
that was me  (also horror, and anything by tyler perry)
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 19:04
|
|
|
Do you worry about films not getting made though? That seems sketchy. Like I kind of want to get in on Booster Gold, but I don't think it'll see the light of day. Also JWEAV (short), SHUNT, and LLINN are adjust tomorrow for good gains. They've went up since I bought em a couple of weeks ago, but you should still be able to get some quick cash. looks like JWEAV will be 80% ROI+, SHUNT, and LLINN ~20-25% ROI. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Oct 3, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 20:46
|
|
|
Not really, but I don't hold original IPs long either. I mean, Avatar 2 is a pretty safe bet though, you know?
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 20:50
|
|
|
So just go with big established ones, not something like Bloodshot. Got it. I'll probably just get in on people in these giant movies. Ppl that aren't Tyrese or Vin Diesel with huge price tags already.
ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Oct 3, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 20:54
|
|
|
I imagine someone would have to have several billion dollars in net worth before no-name development-phase movies are anything other than fun bets. The release schedule is packed with literally years of low-risk, low-reward movies. Stuff like Star Wars and the MCU will reliably make money if you buy early enough. That said, high-stakes betting is a completely legitimate way to play HSX.
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 21:23
|
|
|
H$619,278.13 (11.24%) A good day. I think once I get to roughly $25m I can safely start to money in funds and IPs like Star Wars. As there aren't enough great starbonds to realistically take your entire bankroll. ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Oct 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 4, 2016 19:42
|
|
|
I just passed the $300m mark, and after the last few derivatives paid out, I'm sitting on $32m. And that's after I loaded up on Fast 9. Thoughts on where to stick it?
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 02:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 26, 2024 17:07 |
|
|
My chart is at work. Vin Diesel @ 3.5m will get you a profit of 1.5m in like 2 months, but cant remember if its short or long. All the funds i guess? They take too long to pay off so i havent been doing those yet.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 04:56
|
|