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Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

Sebadoh Gigante posted:

I don't know, it could go the way of the Super Mario Bros movie. It just doesn't seem like the concept could be scaled up into a full length feature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxX_bVluflo

Anyway I was wondering about those blockbuster warrants: if the film has already met it's box office goal, wouldn't investing in that warrant basically be guaranteed free money?

For example, the strike price for Fury Road is $125M http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MMAX4.BW but it's already earned $130M http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MMAX4
see alsohttp://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=furyroad.htm

Is there something I'm missing here?

The way these work is the stock price is added to the warrant's target price. So right now, you can buy the Fury Road $125M warrant for H$11.08. That means that based on current trends, the film is on track to cash out at $125M + $11.08M , or $136,080,000. In order for you to make money at this point, the film would need to finish with a box office total higher than that. The final cash-out price of the warrant will be whatever the film ends up making during a 12-week run minus $125M.

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Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

Efexeye posted:

Not sure why MMAX5 tanked so hard after the IPO but it looks like its coming back. Someone stop Sebadoh!

My guess is a whole bunch of people were happy to make $10/share in 1 day and cashed out at that point for a quick profit. It's pretty obvious a sequel would gross more than $60M, so now it's getting bought up again by people hoping to hold it for a while. At least that's what I hope.

Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

I sent in an application too. Since this thread got me back into this, may as well play along!

Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

I'm in too! Making it public seems to have done the trick.

Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

Terrorist Fistbump posted:

Musashi, what's your secret man?

A few things.

1. Load up on lots of movie funds. They're not too expensive and almost guaranteed to grow over time. When you have a bunch of them, it adds up.

2. Blockbuster warrants seem almost guaranteed to get you money for a cheap investment. I don't think I've lost money on one yet.

3. Be on the lookout for good IPOs. I made a couple million off Ant-Man 2 a couple weeks ago when it started out at H$80 and jumped to almost H$120....given that the original made $180,000,000, you know the sequel is going to be comparable. Just made a good profit off Gigantic a day or so ago. Given that it's a Disney retelling of a fairy tale and directed by the guy that did Tangled...well, Tangled did pretty well, I recall. So $H60 seemed low and sure enough, it's up to over $H70 right now.

Efexeye, do you need a mailing address from me?

Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

Terrorist Fistbump posted:

Cool, thanks. I haven't looked into movie funds but I will now. I agree that BWs are great and everyone should buy max shares for each one on the day they debut.

Glad I can help out a bit. By the way, the Animation Fund is debuting today. Seems like a good place to park $H200,000.

Next thing I've really got to figure out is how to profit off StarBonds. I know quite a lot can be made off those, but figuring out how they adjust can be a bit tricky.

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Miyamoto Musashi
Jul 22, 2006

Baronash posted:

The Star Wars Episode 7 blockbuster warrant cashed out today, and I was relieved to find out I didn't misunderstand how warrants work.

Pretty much always buy the blockbuster warrants. They're a great high reward/low risk option.

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