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Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

:tipshat:

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 04:12 on May 25, 2015

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Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

If I'm understanding this correctly, we can start buying stocks now and any gains/losses don't count toward the league until tommorrow?

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Is HSX down? E: it came back up but no trading.

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 05:04 on May 28, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

So how many stocks of a film do you usually buy? How many different films do you have in your portfolio?

I've been trying different things but so far things seem pretty arbitrary. I've looked at the long-term graphs for each movie but they just look like roller coasters and it's hard to anticipate how it will fluctuate in the near or distant future.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

To be fair, Spy is getting a lot of positive reviews right now.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/spy_2015/

http://www.metacritic.com/movie/spy

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

yeah it's just like, my opinion, man :)

That's a good point, considering how you went all in on Pixels. :coolspot:



Now you may be asking how I shot to the top so quickly, and I owe it partly to ONE WEIRD TRICK THAT VETERAN PLAYERS DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW ABOUT!

I won $50,000 playing classic cash, which is essentially random, but it benefits a beginning player proportionally more than someone with an 8 figure net worth.

Other than that, I went all in (20,000 shares at $2 each) into the $100M call for Jurassic Park and I've almost doubled my investment already. I have my stocks spread out among a lot of things, but my biggest investments right now are Jurassic Park (won't stop climbing), The Good Dinosaur, and 10,000 shares in a summer movie that I think is criminally undervalued right now (hint: it's not about dinosaurs).

PS: Pitch Perfect 3 was just announced and stocks are now for sale at a fixed price of $90. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/PTCP3

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

Pixels will be terrible but it will make money, if my daughter's 8 year old clique is any indication :colbert:

I don't know, it could go the way of the Super Mario Bros movie. It just doesn't seem like the concept could be scaled up into a full length feature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxX_bVluflo

Anyway I was wondering about those blockbuster warrants: if the film has already met it's box office goal, wouldn't investing in that warrant basically be guaranteed free money?

For example, the strike price for Fury Road is $125M http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MMAX4.BW but it's already earned $130M http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MMAX4
see alsohttp://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=furyroad.htm

Is there something I'm missing here?

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

This stock is just exploding right now. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/AKIRA


I see what you mean, I already bought 20,000 shares a week ago and have made about 20% profit already, it just seems like the blockbuster warrent is unusually low-risk for a derivative since you can bail out more easily than you could with an opening weekend one.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008



:toot:

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Where'd you hear that mad max made 300 mil? Was that the international total? I think domestic was around $130 mil last I checked.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

I'm not sure how much it counts when it comes to overall gross, but I think Jurassic World has the broadest domegraphic appeal of any of this summer's blockbusters, and you don't have to be a huge nerd to enjoy it. Then again, maybe teens and dweebs are all that really count at the box office.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

I was just at a bar for the basketball game and there were about a dozen people in JP cosplay. Think it's going to do well!
As people or dinosaurs?



Uh oh, looks like you're gaining on me. I better invest harder to maintain my lead.

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Jun 16, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

EDIT: I usually sell movies after their opening weekend; it doesn't look like JW is going to move much more. That was a great stock. WTF are you buying, Gigante, that has you up 186% in the league? It's not all Classic Cash...





http://i.imgur.com/YiXpISj.gifv

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

I bought 100,000 shares of Boulevard yesterday at $0.50 a piece and I've already doubled my investment.

http://www.hsx.com/security/view/BLVD

I just saw it as a trending topic on facebook, this is going to be huge for a limited release.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

They haven't posted here lately but from the looks of it Crindy and Fisty are still playing.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Might as well post this while it's still relevent.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

I thought the same thing about max and the american sniper crowd. It make not make $15mil opening weekend but I think it's undervalued overall.

As for the derivative question, it's too late to change anything now, but I wouldn't bet on Ted2. Grant it I haven't been doing this long, but I wouldn't invest heavily in a derivative unless I was really confident about it. I made a huge profit on Jurassic World's opening and a decent amount on Inside Out, and both of those seemed like sure things.

Also get it while it's hot, the Mad Max sequel is now for sale. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MMAX5

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 00:21 on Jun 30, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

drat Fisty, that was a close one.



Was that from Mad Max, something else, a combination of things?

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

So do the derivatives for this weekend count for Thursday through Sunday instead of Friday-Sunday like usual? I'm guessing that's the case since trading is locked. I probably wouldn't have been so confident in that put if I had known that. Either way, at this stage $40,000 isn't as big a deal as when I was starting out.

CRINDY posted:


I think that's my biggest problem, I have half of my cash wrapped up in years-old purchases (I grabbed Black Panther in 2012 at $16, it's now at $89, but I don't want to sell cuz it'll eventually add another $50 at least to that) and am not used to short-term plays.

I'd say if you need the cash, sell all but 100 or 1000 shares of your long term investment, whatever number is necessary to keep it near the top of your list, and then when you have extra cash you can buy them back at only slightly higher than what you sold them for. The only risk in this strategy is if a trailer or announcement comes out during the time between selling and re-buying the shares and there's a sudden surge of interest in the property while you're not holding much of it.

EDIT:

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 04:14 on Jul 3, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Jurassic World sequel is up for trade today. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/JURA5

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

Okay Gigante, prize went out yesterday. Post it when you get it, maybe more people will play :)

Wow thanks! You really didn't have to do that.



Next time though, I'd recommend sending a check or money order, sending cash through the mail can be risky. I also accept paypal.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008



Congrats on the 12% gain Fisty. Was that from the Minions Call cashout?

As for this weeks derivatives, what are y'all betting on? I bought 20,000 of the Antman Call, since $60M seems like a pretty modest opening number for a Marvel movie.
I also bought 20,000 of the Trainwreck Put, mainly because it's an R-rated comedy and so far no R comedy has met it's opening weekend estimates this summer. (see Entourage, Spy, Dope, Ted 2, and Magic Mike XXL (an XXL payout for the PUT))

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Hmmm, it looks like the puts for both both pixels and paper towns have sold more than the calls. I can understand not having much faith in pixels (especially at $50) but I think paper towns is being undervalued right now. The main stock had been sitting at $40 for a while when I bought a bunch of them and it's at $70 now.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

Okay, I'm sick of Gigante dominating every week so I sold 8k shares of STAR7 so I have some money to play with. I'm buying the Ant-Man call and the Trainwreck push.

Keep in mind that with a cap of 20,000 anyone with a lower net worth than you (ie. me) will gain a higher percentage when the derivative cashes out (see also: Fisty gaining a higher percentage than I did from the Minions call).

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Oh boy, Pixels has a $0.72 call, $5.32 put, and a 14% rating on Rotten Tomatoes right now.

Weirdly, Paper Towns is at $1.35 call, $3.86 put despite it's 78% tomato rating. Does the average hsx player just have a personal vendetta against sentimental teen movies? While it's not as tangible as a sequel, I'd think being based on a John Green book would bring in a good chunk of the Fault in our Stars crowd.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

The Minions blockbuster warrant is up.

http://www.hsx.com/security/view/MNION.BW

$5 a share with a cap of 20,000 shares. A mere $100,000 will buy you one of the most reliable investments available. And remember, the less money you have the more percentage gain you'll make.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Efexeye posted:

Also I'm long on The Martian and it's criminally undervalued at $141, I think. I don't know how they will make that boring slog of a textbook interesting for the screen but it's matt damon and they will promote the poo poo out of it.

It's got a lot going for it on paper and it will likely draw comparisons to Interstellar, Gravity, and even Cast Away. However, just because a movie checks all the right boxes doesn't automatically mean it's destined for commercial and/or critical success. If you look at Ridley Scott's recent output you'll see that the last time he directed a movie that grossed over $150 million, the twin towers were still standing.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Director&id=ridleyscott.htm
Matt Damon has some high grossing films under his belt, but $140M isn't a sure thing.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=mattdamon.htm

Don't get me wrong, I actually do hope you're right about this (I picked The Martian in the PHIZ movie league) but I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in the Martian basket just yet.

Anyway, you know what I think is undervalued right now? Star Wars. Of course it's already worth a lot of money, but when you consider how Jurassic World made over half a billion in the first four weeks during the summer, imagine how much Star Wars can make in the dead of winter, ie. the James Cameron strategy, something that hasn't been tried yet with Star Wars.
Also this is one move where rich folks like you and Crindy actually have an advantage over poorer players since shares are so high already. If you already own stock in Star Wars, just buy more.


Terrorist Fistbump posted:

Mechanical question: If a BW is trading below current box office actual and I buy it, will I get the difference between purchase price and box office when it cashes out? The reason I ask is that there are a couple big BWs (lol) that are significantly below box office right now and the free money seems too good to be true.

Each movie has 12 weeks to meet that goal, but if after some time passes and it seems less likely to meet that goal, you can still bail before the 12 weeks are up and retain whatever profits you've made in the meantime, even if the movie doesn't ultimately earn that much. Just check boxofficemojo periodically if you're not sure. And remember,



EDIT: if I'm understanding this correctly, you'd be guaranteed to make a profit if you bought shares of the Jurassic World warrant now and waited until September when it cashes out, since it's already passed the $550M threshold but the current value of the derivative is still less than the current total gross. $(550 + 26) < $623

http://www.hsx.com/security/view/JURA4.BW

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=jurassicpark4.htm

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jul 26, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Hey Efexeye, can you just reset the league at the first of the month instead of whatever day it was we started?

And Ibexas, are you still in this? From what I can tell you own 0 securities and any gains reported are just from interest on cash held.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

The upcoming Linklater movie is blowing up right now. http://www.hsx.com/security/view/TWITA

EDIT:

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Jul 28, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

The thing with action movies these days is that they're often casting as wide a net as possible for the international market. Tyrmynytyr is a perfect example as it bombed in the US but make a bunch overseas. Aging stars like Arnold and Tom Cruise are a much bigger draw in foreign markets than stateside. Ultimately it makes the domestic earning potential of these big action movies hard to gauge.

At least we got one really good international-ish action movie this summer.

Terrorist Fistbump posted:



Tell me how crazy I am.

What happens when a shorted derivative cashes out?

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Jul 30, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008



http://www.hsx.com/security/view/SWAR2

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008



drat Crindy, you made all that from shorting F4NT4STIC 4?

That's a huge percentage for someone with over $70,000,000. Did you buy Batman too?

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008



Oh btw this is the newly named Pixar IP http://www.hsx.com/security/view/DDLM

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Aug 16, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

CRINDY posted:

Why the gently caress is Mission: Impossible 6 sinking like a stone? It's guaranteed to make $400m overseas. It's going to get made. It's going to make some drat money. And yet it's down 16 percent and I'm down $1m+ today.

That always happens with new IPOs. They often save the biggest for Saturdays. It goes on sale Saturday, starts going up Sunday, goes up even further Monday, then most people just cash out and the stock plummets because honestly, who wants to hold onto all those shares for 2-5 years?

I'd suggest using the 'radar' function (sells all shares except one) and waiting until it gets really low, then re-buy the shares and wait.

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Another sizzlin' hot Disney stock http://www.hsx.com/security/view/JUNGC

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

I shorted this when it was still in the green because really, who even asked for this? http://www.hsx.com/security/view/JUMNJ

edit: it's going back up again, so now I'm just riding the seesaw, making money both ways

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 00:59 on Aug 24, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Dang Fisty how'd you pull that off?

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Terrorist Fistbump posted:

I found some good StarBonds. Lots of cash to be made if you can figure out when they'll adjust.

I should look into that.


Efexeye posted:

League resets Tuesday at mignight, looks like Fisty is taking August unless someone else has a late surge over the weekend.

thanks fer playin'! :tipshat:

I'm not going down without a fight.



EDIT:

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Aug 30, 2015

Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

Hey TF, did you buy into the We Are Your Friends put? If so then you've certainly made more than I did, proportionally. E: No wait it was the Jurassic World blockbuster warrant that cashed out today.

Pomplamoose fucked around with this message at 02:53 on Sep 1, 2015

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Pomplamoose
Jun 28, 2008

drat, this rooster has a lot of balls http://www.cartoonbrew.com/feature-film/mexicos-un-gallo-con-muchos-huevos-surprises-with-a-top-10-u-s-bow-118734.html

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