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Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo

ButtWolf posted:

Bradley Cooper is also a big one right now (well about two weeks ago). up 7% in a week. When is the best time to get out? Like when GotG 2 is released, does Bradley Coopers TAG get adjusted that day or does it take a few weeks?
TAGs get adjusted the day after the moviestock delists, which is the first business day (Monday, or Tuesday when Monday's a holiday) after the movie's fourth weekend in wide release, or 12th weekend in limited release if it never goes wide. So on Tuesday (or Wednesday), the starbond prices adjust to account for the delist price of the moviestock. In GotG2's case, release date is May 5th and adjust date is May 31.

Bradley Cooper's starbond is actually a relatively weak long-term investment. You're going to have a positive return, but it's small when you account for the number of days you have to hold the starbond before it adjusts. If you want to make real money on that movie, take a look at Kurt Russell. His TAG is going to blow up next May because he's in GotG2 and Fast 8. (Note that he's also in this year's Deepwater Horizon, which will likely nudge his current TAG down a couple dollars when it adjusts. Timing is important.)

quote:

Forest looks like He'll double. if i'm correct about this: Star Wars is at $415m, but as far as it counts for TAG its maxed at $250 right? That'd put his at somewhere between 80-90m in December.
You're right about the $250m max. Forest is also in Arrival, which is going to push his TAG up a bit more than you're currently calculating for Rogue Squadron, which adjusts in mid January.

quote:

Actually, let's use Ethan Hawke as the example. Magnificent Seven comes out friday. When will his TAG be updated? (prob good $ from movie) His next movie in Oct actually has a higher price than the one it would knock off of the TAG, but not much so I'm not worried about having to get out quickly. Do you wait until the stock is really close to TAG?
Ethan's starbond adjusts on October 18th. His next movie is going to be a limited release that will nudge his TAG up a couple cents if you're willing to hold it until January. I'll sell the starbond immediately after the October 18th adjust and put the money into something more profitable. No sense in holding onto it longer than that; it will either slowly bleed value or stagnate for months, neither of which does me any good.

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Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo

ButtWolf posted:

I've been making spreadsheets. Theses are my estimated best starbonds for the foreseeable future, based on roi%. I'm dropping Russell so I can put money into these. Russell is basically going to double, and at 3m its nice but I should be able to grab the same amount of money quicker on a 70% less investment on KREIL.

JWEAV - 915% Adjust 10/4
CDFRA - 1062% Adjust 10/11
JKSIM - 511% Adjust 1/10
NCAGE - 667% Adjust 1/31
KREIL - 1142% Adjust 2/7

Alfred Molina and David Oyelo are other goods at ~400-450%.

Good picks! Now add a "days until adjust" column to your spreadsheet and divide those percentages by it. Daily return on investment (DROI) is everything in this game.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
2% and above for portfolios up to 25m, 1% up to 100m, 0.5% up to 200m. These are rough numbers, of course, and can change based on what else is in your portfolio besides starbonds. I'm over 200m and have started going below 0.35% just to park my spare cash. I'm probably due for a strategy overhaul soon. It gets really hard to make decent money the more of it you have.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
It's 1% to make any trade. So, buying and immediately selling a security will cost you ~2% of what you paid.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
STORK is down $10 in the past 24 hours :rip: a million in gains

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo

Efexeye posted:

i bought and held terminator 5 long

:sympathy:

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
hot tip: you can make :20bux::20bux: a share if you pick up PETS.BW between now and tomorrow at 4pm PST

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Looks like your ROI math isn't quite right. The formula in terms of prices is ROI = (Sell - Buy) / Buy or in your terms, simply Profit/Buy-in.

SULLY.BW just IPO'd like an hour ago. The movie only needs to make $21 million more (it's at $94m after 3 weekends) for the BW to break even.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
I don't think so. Using your numbers, actual ROI on the Suicide Squad BW is 374,320/335,200 = 111.67%. It looks like you used Profit/Sell as the formula: 374,320/709,520 = 52.76%

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Good tip, thanks. Let's hope summer 2017 is better for blockbusters than this one!

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
INDI5 at $39 is a very nice get.

I don't do a whole lot of long-term holds, but I've still got a few sure things lined up. I picked up CARS3 in June for $111 and I expect to make just under double that in profit. The price is still very good now, actually. I've also got a couple smaller animated films (BOSSB and CROD2) that will give me a good payoff even if they make under $100 million. Someone earlier in the thread said that animated films are generally priced well below where they should be until right before they are released, and aside from the bomb that was Storks I've found that to be true.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
I imagine someone would have to have several billion dollars in net worth before no-name development-phase movies are anything other than fun bets. The release schedule is packed with literally years of low-risk, low-reward movies. Stuff like Star Wars and the MCU will reliably make money if you buy early enough.

That said, high-stakes betting is a completely legitimate way to play HSX.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
I'm remembering what happened with The Good Dinosaur last year, too.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Grats to everyone (not me) who bought the BOO! OW derivative, y'all are in for a sweet payday.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
Anyone else get burned by CROD2 getting canceled out of nowhere? I lost 3 million because I didn't log in for a few days and missed the news.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
I've noticed the price on a lot of big movies drops in the week leading up to release. My guess is that there is a portion of long-term investors who can't stomach opening weekend uncertainty and just want to realize their gains so far.

Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
:staredog: good fuckin job, friend

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Terrorist Fistbump
Jan 29, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
The Wonder Woman blockbuster warrant IPO'd yesterday with a break-even point lower than the film's current box office take, i.e. it's nothing but profit for the next 8 weeks

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