Hollywood Stock Exchange- Free Market Research for Movie Studios

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ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Anyone else get in on Mads Mikkelsen? or is the 20k shares too low $ for you fatcats? I think he's gonna be a great way to turn 200k into two million for noobs without a lot of cash. I've been doing this strategy with ppl like John C Reilly who dropped really low. Is this a good strat? Ethan Hawke, Donnie Yen...

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Sep 15, 2016

# ¿ Sep 15, 2016 15:34

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# ¿ Apr 29, 2024 15:57

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Im in Disney, Fox, Lionsgate. and the Sci-fi fund. These are great. Bradley Cooper is also a big one right now (well about two weeks ago). up 7% in a week. When is the best time to get out? Like when GotG 2 is released, does Bradley Coopers TAG get adjusted that day or does it take a few weeks? I'm pretty much only looking at stars that will triple. Forest looks like He'll double. if i'm correct about this: Star Wars is at $415m, but as far as it counts for TAG its maxed at $250 right? That'd put his at somewhere between 80-90m in December.

I hope I'm calculating all of these right and haven't just been getting lucky.

Thanks for tip on Christina too, that should be a 4x profit.

Actually, let's use Ethan Hawke as the example. Magnificent Seven comes out friday. When will his TAG be updated? (prob good $ from movie)
His next movie in Oct actually has a higher price than the one it would knock off of the TAG, but not much so I'm not worried about having to get out quickly. Do you wait until the stock is really close to TAG?

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Sep 19, 2016

# ¿ Sep 19, 2016 22:15

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Terrorist Fistbump posted:

TAGs get adjusted the day after the moviestock delists, which is the first business day (Monday, or Tuesday when Monday's a holiday) after the movie's fourth weekend in wide release, or 12th weekend in limited release if it never goes wide. So on Tuesday (or Wednesday), the starbond prices adjust to account for the delist price of the moviestock. In GotG2's case, release date is May 5th and adjust date is May 31.

Bradley Cooper's starbond is actually a relatively weak long-term investment. You're going to have a positive return, but it's small when you account for the number of days you have to hold the starbond before it adjusts. If you want to make real money on that movie, take a look at Kurt Russell. His TAG is going to blow up next May because he's in GotG2 and Fast 8. (Note that he's also in this year's Deepwater Horizon, which will likely nudge his current TAG down a couple dollars when it adjusts. Timing is important.)

You're right about the $250m max. Forest is also in Arrival, which is going to push his TAG up a bit more than you're currently calculating for Rogue Squadron, which adjusts in mid January.

Ethan's starbond adjusts on October 18th. His next movie is going to be a limited release that will nudge his TAG up a couple cents if you're willing to hold it until January. I'll sell the starbond immediately after the October 18th adjust and put the money into something more profitable. No sense in holding onto it longer than that; it will either slowly bleed value or stagnate for months, neither of which does me any good.

It'll be roughly an $800k profit for holding onto Cooper so it's fine. Ill start using any won money to dump into Russell and use anything like Magnificent Sevens delist and sell of Ethan Hawke to buy in. That should net roughly $2.8mil on a $1.5m investment. So yeah, thats exciting.

Also, I know it's long gain, but I think shorting Liam Hemsworth is gonna be a 8x profit. Its super forecasty but I don't see him doing anything in the near future other than inconsequential movies that'll bump Hunger Games out. Since he is so high right now, it'll cost ~3.5m. If you like risks i think this is the risk. There's almost no way he gets any higher, so it's only a risk in tying up your money really.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 15:34 on Sep 21, 2016

# ¿ Sep 20, 2016 21:06

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

I've been making spreadsheets. Theses are my estimated best starbonds for the foreseeable future, based on roi%. I'm dropping Russell so I can put money into these. Russell is basically going to double, and at 3m its nice but I should be able to grab the same amount of money quicker on a 70% less investment on KREIL.

JWEAV - 915% Adjust 10/4
CDFRA - 1062% Adjust 10/11
JKSIM - 511% Adjust 1/10
NCAGE - 667% Adjust 1/31
KREIL - 1142% Adjust 2/7

Alfred Molina and David Oyelo are other goods at ~400-450%.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 16:54

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Terrorist Fistbump posted:

Good picks! Now add a "days until adjust" column to your spreadsheet and divide those percentages by it. Daily return on investment (DROI) is everything in this game.

NIce. Will do. What would a good DROI% be? Looks like 1% is exceptional by the naked eye, .3% is good.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Sep 23, 2016

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 17:49

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

The problem with a lot of money is the max shares. With 50 mill in your acct, there's a great bond thats only gonna take 250k to get into. That's why I'm gonna take some of these .3%'s because there just aren't enough bonds that are going to do any better. The DROI% on stuff like SCIFI bonds is really bad, but if you've got the extra cash, like you said, park it..

Also, SHORT Paul Giamatti immediately.

Whats the avg loss per trade? Like the commission thingy? I've reordered some stuff and am down $35k. About 5k per trade?

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Sep 23, 2016

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 19:41

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Cool. Yeah I had to dump some unfavorable .5% to get on a big train. Totally worth it, just wondering. If you've got Donnie Yen, don't dump in January. Wait till Feb for another 200k. It's actually a better DROI%.

PGIAM
JWEAV
CDFRA
EHAWK
AMOLI
DOYEL
REVER
TOJON

These are good picks. Pay no mind to my list from earlier today. Although they aren't bad.

I had to stop looking so far in future and am going to try to limit myself to 120 days, but some might be too juicy to pass up.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Sep 23, 2016

# ¿ Sep 23, 2016 22:25

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Thanks! I got real excited until I realized I picked that up a couple of weeks ago, but then I got excited again bc it means $. Do they all lag so far behind on box office numbers? Its been clear for a while now that it was gonna be way over. Seems like cheating... are there any other BWs that are good right now?

489k buy-in right now. Mojo says 360 mil. Will it delist at 60? If so i got a full triple out of it and that makes me happy.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Sep 25, 2016

# ¿ Sep 25, 2016 23:22

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

ATTN! Everyone short Toby Jones immediately. He's dropping 20% today if you need fast cash or you can wait until Nov 1. By my estimation, the $1m you spend today will be $42m in November. If you wait until tomorrow to buy your $1m will net you ~$25m in November.

# ¿ Sep 26, 2016 15:52

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

What? Thats dumb.

# ¿ Sep 27, 2016 05:44

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Baronash posted:

It's not a game mechanic, it's just how the math works. The best case is that the stock goes from whatever you paid per share down to 0, which is a 100% decrease. I'm not sure how you arrived at the $42m figure.

Yeah Math is dumb.
I was thought it was just like buying, but reverse. So shorting is still pretty good, in some cases. You will make a nice profit off of Toby Jones today anyway, and then you can re-short for November double money.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Sep 27, 2016

# ¿ Sep 27, 2016 13:41

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

OK, tell me if I'm doing this correctly please. I want to learn everything well.

code:

Warrant   Current BO    Expected +Over+	Current Price   Buy-in	      Sell	   Profit	ROI%	DROI%	Days Until Delist   Delist Date
285	  318.2	        41.2	        16.52	        $333,704.00   $815,760.00  $482,056.00	59.09%	1.52%	39	            11/5/2016

This is for Suicide Squad btw.

Would that be something to get into? It won't be what we made of PETS.BW, but seems pretty good.

The buy-in and sell have built in 1% trade fee.

For expected, I just looked at similar movies and how much they made in their last 4 weeks @ BO and kind of guessed.

CHANGE TODAY
H$926,950.17 (21.98%)
I like seeing this.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Sep 27, 2016

# ¿ Sep 27, 2016 16:06

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

code:

		BW	BO	+Over+	Price	Buy-in		Sell		Profit		ROI%	DROI%	Days Until Delist	Delist Date
Suicide Squad	285	318.2	36.2	16.76	$335,200.00	$709,520.00	$374,320.00	52.76%	1.43%	37			11/5/2016
Bourne	        140	161	24	17.34	$346,800.00	$470,400.00	$123,600.00	26.28%	0.88%	30			10/29/2016
Bad Moms	100	112	15	12.47	$249,400.00	$294,000.00	$44,600.00	15.17%	0.51%	30			10/29/2016
Star Trek	140	158	19.5	16.49	$329,800.00	$382,200.00	$52,400.00	13.71%	0.60%	23			10/22/2016

Squad and Bourne are slightly better options, but it's guaranteed money for sure on all of em. That's an estimation of what it will make @ BO. Decently conservative though in it's last 4 weeks. Also, adjust dates might be slightly off, I just did 12 weeks from release date, which is what I think it is. Also the Sell is a rough estimation. It's not going to make exactly 318.2m so it will differ. It also has 1% fee in there.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Sep 29, 2016

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 17:28

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Is it because of 1% trade fee added in? Im away from pc right now.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 18:09

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Indeed I did. Got column labels mixed up. Thanks.

edit: Even though I'm loving up all this math, I'm #3 this week. I know what to pick, just am not good at calculating exactly how much.

I've got a spreadsheet now for almost all buys for a year.

Based on other Tom Hanks movies of around the same stature, I think Sully will end up around $125-130m. That would be a 3x-4x profit right now. It's tempting.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Sep 30, 2016

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 20:39

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Uggh the login problem is killing me.

# ¿ Sep 30, 2016 14:18

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Do you worry about films not getting made though? That seems sketchy. Like I kind of want to get in on Booster Gold, but I don't think it'll see the light of day.

Also JWEAV (short), SHUNT, and LLINN are adjust tomorrow for good gains. They've went up since I bought em a couple of weeks ago, but you should still be able to get some quick cash.

looks like JWEAV will be 80% ROI+, SHUNT, and LLINN ~20-25% ROI.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Oct 3, 2016

# ¿ Oct 3, 2016 20:46

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

So just go with big established ones, not something like Bloodshot. Got it. I'll probably just get in on people in these giant movies. Ppl that aren't Tyrese or Vin Diesel with huge price tags already.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Oct 3, 2016

# ¿ Oct 3, 2016 20:54

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

H$619,278.13 (11.24%)

A good day.

I think once I get to roughly $25m I can safely start to money in funds and IPs like Star Wars. As there aren't enough great starbonds to realistically take your entire bankroll.

ButtWolf fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Oct 4, 2016

# ¿ Oct 4, 2016 19:42

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

My chart is at work. Vin Diesel @ 3.5m will get you a profit of 1.5m in like 2 months, but cant remember if its short or long. All the funds i guess? They take too long to pay off so i havent been doing those yet.

# ¿ Oct 5, 2016 04:56

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Not quite what i remembered

short VDIES: buy-in=$3,405,800.00
profit $957,924.00 28% 61days until

28% doesn't look good and DROI doesn't look that good either, but since it's working with a very large sum, maybe it'll be worth it to you.

# ¿ Oct 6, 2016 15:10

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

H$1,105,330.54 (13.21%)
Mmmmm... Feels good man

# ¿ Oct 25, 2016 19:39

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# ¿ Apr 29, 2024 15:57

ButtWolf: Dec 30, 2004; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Yeah once I learned how to play, I've made like 300%.

# ¿ Oct 27, 2016 02:17

The Something Awful Forums > The Finer Arts > Cinema Discusso > Hollywood Stock Exchange- Free Market Research for Movie Studios