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QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

pig slut lisa posted:

When I explain this to people I like to :iiaca:

Right now there's no supply restriction on how many cars can be built. There are minimum safety requirements, which I suppose maybe reduce supply somewhat by excluding the super cheap deathtrap from the showroom floor. But by and large manufacturers can make as few or as many cars as they want. And so we see tons of cheap Hondas, some midlevel Volkswagens, and a few expensive Maseratis. But if we said "only 10,000 new cars can be sold in the US per year", then you can bet those things would be blinged out as hell and unaffordable to just about everyone.

It's the same thing with housing. True, there are some people who are poor enough that no developer will ever be able to build housing for them at a profit. And there is also a place for building codes to exclude housing that is super cheap by dint of being a deathtrap. But by and large, metros that are seeing only luxury housing being built have brought it on themselves with ridiculous supply restrictions in the form of low density zoning.

e: I forgot the other important aspect of this analogy, which is that nobody freaks out about the fact that some poor people can't afford new cars, because there are plenty of good used cars out there. Yet people freak out about the fact that some poor people can't afford even the cheapest new housing, despite the fact that there's plenty of good used housing out there.

That's not a good analogy. Cars depreciate very quickly, so good used cars are actually really affordable. That's not true for most houses. A house that cost $100k in 1990 is likely worth several times that now, despite the real estate crash, whereas a car that cost $20k in 1990 is worth a small fraction of that price now. Even in the worst case, it's hard to find a house that actually loses a significant fraction of its value on that timescale, which is the opposite of the car world.

People aren't freaking out that poor people can't afford brand new houses, the issue is that good old houses are extremely expensive and new developments aren't ever any cheaper because there's less profit to be made in producing lower-income housing. So poor people get shafted with higher payments no matter what, because developers just want to build really expensive low-density housing, which isn't too great for the renter market.

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QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Shifty Pony posted:

Actually it is true for houses. If you haven't plowed money into major renovations the house is likely worth less today than it was then. It is just that land appreciation masks it and land in desirable areas has gone way way up because cities have prevented it from being used for anything but single family homes.

Most of the houses around me are worth negative money, evidenced by the developers buying them cash for $300k then spending $10k to demolish them to put up their $700k 2700sqft luxury house. The houses people buy to live in have had extensive renovations done in the last 20 years or so.

That may be true wherever you live (Detroit?) but it's not true in most of the country. Even after the housing bubble popped, most homes retained at least their original value, and many are worth much more. Case study: Phoenix was hit particularly hard by the housing bubble, but a house there worth $100k in 2005 is worth $200k today.

Treating the land as a separate commodity in an attempt to obfuscate the point is extremely weird because usually you don't buy the land and the home separately, they come together. Most people aren't buying homes, bulldozing them, and then building new homes.

Either way the car analogy is bad

QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Jun 10, 2015

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

pig slut lisa posted:

I understand why you think land and structures are the same commodity.

Nope, I never said that. What I said is that they are usually sold together. We also weren't talking about commercial properties, but rather single family houses, where it is rare to sell the land under a house and not the house itself or vice versa.

The idea was that single family houses are like cars and that there are plenty of old used cars on the market that poor people can afford due to depreciation, so the question was "why aren't there plenty of old used houses on the market that poor people can afford, too?" The answer is that most houses grown in value. It's true that this includes the value of the land under the house, and that the house itself might be depreciatng, but that's a pointless distinction to draw when most sellers won't let you buy just the house and not the land under it.

Even condos, which don't come with any land at all, don't depreciate nearly as fast as a car does. Often they even gain some value over time

All I'm saying is that it's a bad analogy because home depreciation/appreciation is not similar to car depreciation, and car depreciation is why there is such a healthy inventory of affordable cars

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