Sub-Saharan Africa: They're Conflict Minerals, Marie

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PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

does Somalia go here or the Middle East?

There�s been massive ethnic pograms in Ethiopia between Amhara and oromos, university students have been forced to withdraw from their courses if they�re in the wrong ethnic region, and basically the country does not seem like it will last until the 2020 elections ( if EPDRF doesn�t cancel it).

PawParole fucked around with this message at 04:56 on Nov 16, 2019

# ¿ Nov 16, 2019 04:47

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 20:24

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Basically only the future losers are joining the new party. TPLF is the only party that is popular in its home region.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2019 22:55

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

IbrahimSom posted:

The breakaway region of Somaliland has established diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

https://allafrica.com/stories/202007050114.html

I'm a Somali immigrant to the U.S. I lost connection with Somali culture a few years after moving into an area of the U.S without many Somalis, and quite frankly given how the rug was pulled underneath my feet from a secure middle class lifestyle in Mogadishu and becoming a refugee etc I kind of came to mistrust anything Somali.

Well fast forward twenty five years and as I'm starring at middle age suddenly I have appreciation for my culture/ethnicity/language etc (which I've unfortunately forgot though I think I can pick it up again with a year or two of constant practice.)

There was this Canadian Somali lady very much in my life situation (a few years older) who returned to Somalia and started making videos that allowed the Somali diaspora to reconnect with their home. This was an example vid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px88-hUsBTU

I liked this lady and interacted with her a few times on twitter.

She was killed last July in an Al-shabaab terrorist attack on a hotel in Kismayo. I was despondent for weeks.

ps: the current president of Somalia (President Farmajo, italian nickname) was a bureaucrat New York Department of Transportation and used to be a registered Republican.

you�re the third Somali person I met on here.

AUN

# ¿ Jul 7, 2020 15:22

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Vice did a doc on a lot of Somalians returning to rebuild their country of origin after like 10 - 30 years of not being "Somali" as you said. It's a pretty interesting example of the migrant cycle re benefiting the old country. I really hope somalia propels itself forward with returning Somali Americans.

Somalian isn�t a word.

# ¿ Jul 9, 2020 15:38

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Professorjuggalo posted:

https://twitter.com/_yasmin_ahmed/status/1292151313023873024?s=21

It deeply enrages me that our Marxist Leninist dictator was infinitely better on woman�s rights than whatever the gently caress is going on now

the bill has a very small chance of passing ( like two mps support it) and its a Romeo and Juliet law.

do you speak or read Somali? because the twitter poster above doesn�t.

# ¿ Aug 11, 2020 10:07

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Tigray appears to have seized northern command headquarters, and there�s unconfirmed reports that the troops and equipment have either been captured or switched sides.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HarunMar...447732766019592

Abiy also had to move the federal forces from Western Oromia. He needed Oromo Liyu Police to keep OLF in check though Liyu's loyalty is in question. This is probably the cause of the massacre of Amhara civilians that happened a few days ago.

# ¿ Nov 6, 2020 09:19

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Airstrikes in Mekelle and other towns in Tigray.

Here�s an in depth article.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/05/is-ethiopia-headed-for-civil-war/

# ¿ Nov 6, 2020 09:23

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Grouchio posted:

So the Amhara villages were slaughtered because Tigrayans/their elite could no longer stomach Abiy Ahmed's Oromo-Muslim premiership or reforms, I'm guessing?

What? No, he withdrew troops to attack Tigray so the OLF attacked an Amhara village in revenge for a belief that Oromo university students were attacked in Amharia.

Abiy isn�t Muslim, he�s a Pente. Islam and Christianity are syncretic. There are no religious tensions in Ethiopia (outside of everyone hating Pentes)

# ¿ Nov 6, 2020 09:38

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-09/ethiopians-including-soldiers-flee-escalating-conflict-to-sudan

Several Ethiopians, including army soldiers, fled the escalating conflict in the restive Tigray region to neighbouring Sudan on Monday, Sudanese state media and residents said.

The flare-up in the northern region bordering Eritrea and Sudan has killed hundreds of people, Ethiopian sources on the government side said, even as the prime minister sought on Monday to reassure the world his nation was not sliding into civil war.

The worsening conflict threatens to destabilise Africa's second most populous nation, where ethnic conflict has already killed hundreds since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took over in 2018.

https://en.halbeeg.com/2020/11/10/ethiopian-soldiers-flee-to-sudan-after-clash-with-tigrayian-forces/

# ¿ Nov 10, 2020 11:02

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

MonikaTSarn posted:

This really surprised me, I would have expected that to be Egypt, with Kongo, Kenia or South Africa in third place. Guess I know less about Africa then I thought.

kenia? kongo?

I'd place somalia at around 30 mill, but otherwise this list seems accurate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_population

kustomkarkommando posted:

President of Tigray/Chairman of the TPLF accusing Eritrea of launching an offensive and crossing the border - Eritrea denying this of course

my sources are denying it too

PawParole fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Nov 10, 2020

# ¿ Nov 10, 2020 15:55

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

kustomkarkommando posted:

https://twitter.com/rcoreyb/status/1326487139278843904?s=19

Big unknown in all of this does still remain how much of the military, if any, has defected to the TPLF - this is the first admission I've seen that some rather senior officers colluded with them at the least.

It's still hard to pick out truth from false information what with the communications black out and the twitter war of opinion but the arrest of several journalists being confirmed does give some credence to the reports of Tigrayans being interned circulating

It�s pretty much a known fact that the northern command defected to Tigray. It�s one of the causes of the war, that they placed Tigrayan loyalists in command of it, and refused to let Abiy appoint officers.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2020 18:50

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

By the way, there is an active war in Western Oromia where a large section of the Ethiopian army had to vacate. Oromo are attacking Amhara 'settlers'.

PawParole fucked around with this message at 02:39 on Nov 12, 2020

# ¿ Nov 11, 2020 18:53

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

It�s FP, so keep their biases in mind, but here�s an interesting article

https://outline.com/4ERG4A

FP posted:

Although Tigray is small, it is well armed, and its forces are battle-hardened. Tigray�s regional special forces, which a senior Ethiopian diplomat estimates have grown to at least 20,000 commandos�led by senior Tigrayan officers forced into retirement by Abiy, plus a standing body of reserve special forces made up of military-trained militia and armed farmers�together have an estimated total of up to 250,000 armed fighters. Until recently, however, it lacked the heavy weaponry required to directly confront a fully-equipped division.

Since last week, the TPLF has taken control of half the soldiers from the five divisions of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) Northern Command that remain in Tigray�meaning it has gained 15,000 soldiers, according to three sources: a senior Ethiopian diplomat briefed on the latest developments, a senior retired intelligence officer in Tigray who continues to work for the TPLF, and a source in Tigray monitoring the situation. But the seizure of Ethiopian military hardware and equipment has heightened the importance of logistical supplies for the TPLF, which will inevitably depend on Sudan�s stance.

quote:

From the beginning, it was clear that Abiy was intent on provocation, but he did not anticipate the TPLF could supplant an entire military command. In late October, a week before the TPLF took control of the remaining Northern Command in Tigray, Abiy created a new regional command in Ethiopia�s Amhara state, with the two divisions of the Northern Command already stationed in Amhara slated to be transferred into its ranks.

The Northern Command comprises eight of the ENDF�s 32 divisions. Three of them have been stationed outside of Tigray for two years, since Abiy expanded the operational area of the Northern Command: a tank division in the north of Ethiopia�s Afar state and two divisions in Amhara. Military maneuvers against Tigray are now underway on three fronts: from Eritrea, Afar, and Amhara, with Eritrea and Amhara being used in an attempt to cut the TPLF off from Sudan.

On Nov. 1, a few days after Abiy created the new command, Burhan flew to see him in Addis Ababa with the director-general of Sudan�s intelligence service and the head of military intelligence. It was announced that they would strengthen control of the Ethiopia-Sudan border, suggesting that Abiy was trying to completely encircle Tigray before a premeditated confrontation with the TPLF.

# ¿ Nov 15, 2020 10:14

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

quote:

The Oromo is the largest ethnic tribe in Ethiopia, representing around 34.9% of the country�s population of 114.9 million, while the Tigray account for only 7.3%. [/url]

Ethnicity, not tribe, and Abiy is only half oromo and was raised by his Amhara mother.

quote:

If you are Tigrayan and captured by government soldiers, you are in trouble, said the 24-year-old.

"They ask you, with a gun pointed at you, if you belong to Tigrayan forces," he said. "At the slightest hesitation, you are dead. They shoot you down on the spot and leave the body in the street."

Pleading with them that you are a civilian does not make a difference, said Burhan.

"They beat you, sometimes to death, or they take you with them to an unknown destination -- and I doubt if you come back alive from there," he added. "It's terror.

https://news.yahoo.com/escape-massacre-ethiopians-recall-tigray-092740037.html

Abiy is promising the last push to end the conflict and condemn the TPLF to the history pages. If his forces capture Mekelle, the TPLF will retreat to the mountains. Insurgency will likely ensue.

On a side note, Amharas and Abiy are already disagreeing on who should rule areas in Tigray that are claimed by Amharas.

Some Amhara nationalists are afraid Abiy might turn on them once he is done with the TPLF.

PawParole fucked around with this message at 07:08 on Nov 18, 2020

# ¿ Nov 18, 2020 06:21

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Saladman posted:

, except perhaps Somalis.

don�t confuse patience with being pro. He�s a bastard like all the leaders of Ethiopia, but most people in Western Somalia are willing to wait for the referendum next year.

Squalid posted:

What's the basis of his support among Somalis? I would have expected they'd be deeply suspicious of his stance on centralizing power in the Federal government.

Dudes talking nonsense. He�s confusing the statements of the powerless regional president ( who�s a puppet put in by Abiy) with the feelings of the people.

PawParole fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Nov 19, 2020

# ¿ Nov 19, 2020 06:59

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

kustomkarkommando posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-54984056

Pretty significant losses

If TPLF ditched it without a big fight, that means they assumed it had little strategic value to them.

Tigray still has a lot of weapons and men left, if they wanted to keep Axum its a no brainer they would have fought.

# ¿ Nov 19, 2020 07:07

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/ethiopia-both-warring-sides-claim-military-gains-as-fighting-rag

Ethiopia: Both sides claim military gains as fighting rages

We�re inflicting heavy defeats on all fronts against the forces that came to attack us,� Tigrayan leader Debretsion Gebremichael said in a statement, referring to federal forces. �I call upon all the Tigrayan people to go out en masse to drive out the invaders.�

However, army chief Berhanu Jula said in a statement of his own that Ethiopia�s military was �winning on all fronts� and TPLF troops were �in a state of desperation�.

�The TPLF�s plan to drag Ethiopia into civil war and tear it apart has failed. It is currently in a desperate mode as it is surrounded,� Berhanu said.

the government later claimed to be marching on the regional capital Mekelle and to hold the town of Mehoni, 125km (78 miles) to the south. It also accused the TPLF of destroying four bridges leading into Mekelle in an attempt to hold back federal troops.

But diplomats say it is far from clear if federal forces will be able to secure a quick victory. The TPLF has considerable military assets and an estimated 250,000 troops fighting on mountainous terrain they know well.

Ethiopia�s military is estimated at 150,000 troops, a figure that does not include special forces and militias.

Saladman posted:

Actually that's not quite right, we talked to a couple Arabic-speaking Ethiopians too, but both of them were imams, the average Muslim-Ethiopian didn't seem to speak any of Arabic. We tried quite a few times too when someone didn't speak English, as we thought "hey, Amharic/Tigrayan are semitic languages and even share a few base words, and we're close to the Arabic world, and some of these areas are predominantly Muslim," but it didn't turn out to be the case at all.

it's more spoken in Eritrea. It's a liturgical language to most Somali people.

# ¿ Nov 19, 2020 14:20

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Vivian Darkbloom posted:

150,000 is a really small military for a country of over 100 million people. I know that militias are doing some of the fighting, but even so, why so few personnel, even if a lot of Tigray soldiers defected?

given that it�s a civil war, you have to add the two armies together.

# ¿ Nov 21, 2020 04:35

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

kustomkarkommando posted:

Armies are expensive? 150k is large by African standards*, bigger than Nigeria's and about the same size I think as DRC's (though they are notoriously ill equipped). Its probably one of the best equipped and trained in the region so it's really a balancing act of whether you want much larger personnel numbers or a higher degree of professionalism. Ethiopia can definitely mobilise more people if they need to, and did during the Eritrean war, but there's not much point in keeping them all in a standing force/on the payroll.

There's also a lot of discrete regional security forces run by the various regions that technically aren't part of the army but are being drafted in to help with the fighting (and have been the ones quelling protests), the Tigrayan number is a combination of their trained regional forces + militias but we know that Amhara's regional forces and the Liyu special police from the Somali region are been deployed in support of the army. The size of all these are a bit unknown tbh but are significant.

*Excluding North Africa - can't beat the Egyptians

Right, but the Liyu of the Somali region aren�t at the front, that�s fake news.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickH...828673%3Fs%3D20

Abiy has blinked.

After facing huge causality in the town of Shire, with over thousand dead, Abiy has accepted mediation.

While he was saying the war will end in days, experts said , " the war has just started"

PawParole fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Nov 21, 2020

# ¿ Nov 21, 2020 21:28

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-idUSKBN2840IO

Modern mechanized division includes about 10-15 thousand soldiers. I highly doubt this claim by the TPLF. It is too much of a loss even for wars among big armies using heavy artillery, air bombings, etc.

What I do believe in is that there is troops rotation every two weeks a so in a war. Soldiers can't simply be fighting day and night for long period of time. That's why in any war there is a pause after 2-3 weeks of heavy fighting.

Both sides are taking a breather at the moment since the confrontation is on its third week.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2020 12:51

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Ethnic Map of Ethiopia. Tigray is that yellow triangle at the top

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ¿ Dec 2, 2020 17:31

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://mobile.twitter.com/Kuluhama...%5Es1_&ref_url=

# ¿ Dec 3, 2020 23:56

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Zedhe Khoja posted:

Wait Eritrean troops are in Mekelle?

the people protesting certainly believe that, as that is what the TPLF claims.

# ¿ Dec 4, 2020 00:19

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

I would love to see one of these sized proportionate to population

Why? It doesn�t really matter.

I mean both Tigraians and Sidamo are like 5 percent of Ethiopians, but which one had/has more power?

# ¿ Dec 9, 2020 00:43

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

PawParole posted:

Why? It doesn�t really matter.

I mean both Tigraians and Sidamo are like 5 percent of Ethiopians, but which one had/has more power?

Don�t think we understand each other. I�m saying population size in Ethiopia doesn�t correlate 1:1 to political heft.

Saladman posted:

There has been shockingly little coming out of Ethiopia, even a week after the capture of Mekele, but BBC has a probably-reasonably-sourced article about the start of the conflict:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55215431

It looks all but certain that the TPLF did indeed start the current war.

I�d personally say that the central government did. Pre-War Troop movements make it clear.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2020 17:22

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://twitter.com/MOISOMALIA/stat...ghtmode%3Dfalse

Somalia announces that it cut ties with Kenya

# ¿ Dec 15, 2020 02:24

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Grouchio posted:

Would like to know why.

Kenyan government is trying to interfere with the Somali election.

# ¿ Dec 15, 2020 02:43

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

Ethiopian troops ambushed Sudanese border guards in Al-Fashqa, and killed 4.

# ¿ Dec 17, 2020 01:33

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Right, that's exactly what I'm saying...that's why seeing the population size of each ethnic group is interesting.

This is bad news but (at the risk of making another terribly wrong prediction) I have pretty strong doubts that Abiy and Hamdok/al-Burhan would actually go to war with each other, even over GERD.

literally no one in the region cares about that dam. This is over al-fasaqa.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2020 17:22

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

ToxicAcne posted:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/23/gunmen-kill-dozens-in-ethiopias-benishangul-gumuz-rights-body

Jesus Christ.

https://twitter.com/AsemahagnAseres...%5Es1_&ref_url=

the former president being of course, mengistu

# ¿ Dec 24, 2020 14:32

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

i say swears online posted:

ho ho ho

https://mobile.twitter.com/USAfricaCommand/status/1342163115669151746

What?

# ¿ Dec 25, 2020 04:24

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1343910660107714560

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1343988919466041344

PawParole fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Dec 30, 2020

# ¿ Dec 30, 2020 04:21

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

PawParole posted:

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1343910660107714560

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1343988919466041344

https://mobile.twitter.com/RAbdiAnalyst/status/1345251658100600833

# ¿ Jan 3, 2021 01:55

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/06/ethiopia-benishangul-gumuz-violence-gerd-western-front/

article about the massacre in Ethiopia. Note that the source is heavily neoconservative, so keep the bias in mind

# ¿ Jan 7, 2021 14:22

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1350694423471009794

# ¿ Jan 17, 2021 18:10

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/hundreds-reportedly-dead-after-massacre-at-oriental-orthodox-church-in-ethiopia-51752

Locals have said they believe the church was targeted by raiders of the lost ark. The church is thought to contain the original Ark of the Covenant, a sacred golden chest first mentioned in the book of Exodus that carried the 10 commandments, parts of sacred scripture, Aaron�s rod, and a pot of manna. They believed the attackers wanted to steal the Ark of the Covenant and take it to the capital city of Addis Ababa, the Church Times reported. This ark is guided by a single priest who never leaves the compound, and it is not allowed to be seen by anyone else, so whether it is really the true Ark has been debated by historians for centuries.

PawParole fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Jan 23, 2021

# ¿ Jan 22, 2021 23:53