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LeoMarr posted:So is a civil war in greece quite possible at this point because of Austerity measures? A civil war is highly unlikely unless there's some gigantic internal cleavage I'm not aware of but if they aren't allowed to recover they'll keep reshuffling governments until they get one that is willing to default and presumably leave the Eurozone.
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Jul 16, 2015 13:13
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| # ¿ May 9, 2024 03:50 |
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That the structure of the Eurozone compels Greece to adopt bad policy does not make that policy not bad. Rather, it makes the structure of the Eurozone also bad.
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Jul 17, 2015 17:03
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IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:The EU and IMF lending cash was contingent on austerity. So there's not really a choice to make between those two? If the EU and IMF made lending cash dependent on sacrifices to the Olympians, this would not make ceremonial goat death good economic policy.
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Jul 19, 2015 19:22
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asdf32 posted:Austerity prior to the debt crisis would have prevented the debt crisis. This is incorrect, or if correct, irrelevant. The periphery governments (sans Greece) were fiscally responsible prior to the economic crisis. The debt crisis itself occured due to large increases in deficits caused by the recession together with private liabilities owed to northern European banks being taken onto the public balance sheet of southern European countries, occurring in a context where the countries are on an ersatz gold standard created by the Euro. Countries with post-WW2 monetary systems such as Japan, the UK or the US can swallow all those things with zero difficulty. It could be considered to be correct in the sense that sufficiently large austerity would have led to a large enough surplus and small enough (maybe even negative) government debt to weather the storms, but this is an irrelevant technical point since such a large surplus would be economically ruinous and is well outside what is normally considered required for fiscal probity, correctly so given that the crises would have been impossible in a properly designed Eurozone. This all allowing the use of 'austerity' to mean 'increasing the state budget surplus at any time' rather than its more usual usage pointed out by Comrade Lenin.
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Jul 24, 2015 15:02
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asdf32 posted:Either we decide debt crisis is inevitable in the euro or we recognize that debt management can prevent it. Debt crisis is evitable in the dollar, the pound and the yen, for reasons that have nothing to do with debt management. Debt crisis is inevitable in the euro, for reasons that have nothing to do with debt management. It is a red herring. It is focused on by European institutions and people surrounding them because it is politically indispensable, not because it is the product of good analysis.
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Jul 25, 2015 17:16
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| # ¿ May 9, 2024 03:50 |
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There has been austerity in the United States. There was a (too small) stimulus package in 2008, but there have been spending cuts particularly at state level since then. Funnily enough the intransigence of the Tea Party was a benefit at the federal level, because their refusal to accept the various 'grand bargains' stymied the attempt to implement austerity there until the sequester hit.IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:True, or you can be like Greece and have government spending result in a sovereign debt crisis followed by capital flight and a collapse of the banking system. The Greek sovereign debt crisis, like the other periphery debt crises, was caused by the euro.
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Jul 25, 2015 17:29
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