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Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

Arkane posted:

Profit by month and shares traded



lmao at this retarded world

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Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

So uh, am I dumb or are the people buying "yes" on this?

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6862/Will-John-F-Kelly-(DHS)-be-the-first-person-on-Trump%27s-Cabinet-list-to-leave#rules

lmao that graph

Hufflepuff or bust!
Jan 28, 2005

I should have known better.

Jedi Knight Luigi posted:

What were the Feb '17 cash cows?

Mothafuckin' Thomas Shannon was one.

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot
Wait, Arkane's table is profit EACH MONTH? Is this his job?

Lutha Mahtin
Oct 10, 2010

Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

he is the .001%

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

Michael Scott posted:

Wait, Arkane's table is profit EACH MONTH? Is this his job?

i've been betting as my full-time job since 2007. it's pretty fun i guess!

Nf3
Oct 9, 2012

Arkane posted:

i've been betting as my full-time job since 2007. it's pretty fun i guess!

Did you guess some of the senators who voted "No on the BCRA"?It seemed like there were multiple votes on BCRA that week, so how were the bets ultimately decided if a senator were to have voted yes on the skinny but no on the partial?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html



Do you dabble much in the "how much will they tweet" markets?

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot

Arkane posted:

i've been betting as my full-time job since 2007. it's pretty fun i guess!

Can you share where else you bet other than PredictIt? I'd like to learn your craft.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

Michael Scott posted:

Can you share where else you bet other than PredictIt? I'd like to learn your craft.

The halcyon days are unfortunately over, it's just PredictIt and the stock market for me (for the most part).

Intrade is gone, Matchbook (another peer-to-peer site) is closed to US residents, and most offshore sportsbooks don't accept Americans/take big bets on exotic stuff. I used to bet very large amounts on the Oscars, of all things, in addition to politics.

If you live outside of the US, most of the world has access to Betfair, which isn't nearly as good as PredictIt on US politics outside of election years, but has everything else you could possibly want.

There's a Supreme Court case on the docket for next year (Christie v NCAA) that could pave the way for legalized sports betting. We'll see where SCOTUS lands!

Michael Scott
Jan 3, 2010

by zen death robot
Do you make the majority of your betting money with PI or the stock market? In stocks, what do you focus on, i.e. penny stocks, mid cap, blue chip..?

What is your secret? :) I'd love to leave my office job for fun stuff like this.

Nf3
Oct 9, 2012
Can more seasoned gamblers tell me their thoughts on the tweet counter bets?

Hufflepuff or bust!
Jan 28, 2005

I should have known better.

Nf3 posted:

Can more seasoned gamblers tell me their thoughts on the tweet counter bets?

Very difficult without some inside source of knowledge to the schedule. If you bet blind you're going to get rocked. VP especially is data-dependent. POTUS relies on Dan Scavino, an alcoholic idiot who goes through feast/famine cycles. A lot of money can be made...and a lot of money can be lost.

theres a will theres moe
Jan 10, 2007


Hair Elf
Anybody got any thoughts on netanyahu indictment in 2017?
NETA.CHARGES.2017

I'm long and intend to hold. Currently 47c Price dove after news hype last week when some commenter pointed out that it took a prior minister indictment like 1.5 years from announcement of investigation to indictment. This investigation has been going for a while though.

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004

Hufflepuff or bust! posted:

Very difficult without some inside source of knowledge to the schedule. If you bet blind you're going to get rocked. VP especially is data-dependent. POTUS relies on Dan Scavino, an alcoholic idiot who goes through feast/famine cycles. A lot of money can be made...and a lot of money can be lost.

basically this. I doubled my money off the Ossof election and tweets then lost all my earnings plus a little in a day off two literally last 10 minutes of market tweets by trump and VP. Sometimes it seems like Scavino has an account.

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong

Vishass posted:

basically this. I doubled my money off the Ossof election and tweets then lost all my earnings plus a little in a day off two literally last 10 minutes of market tweets by trump and VP. Sometimes it seems like Scavino has an account.

The Georgia special election was good to those who listened to what was said in this very thread. Don't gently caress with the tweet markets. It's all about published White House briefings these days.

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong

Merlot Brougham posted:

It's all about published White House briefings these days.

Like I said. 21-25 was still selling way cheap as late as mid afternoon today.

E: Onward and upward

Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 15:17 on Sep 30, 2017

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
they want me back



oh god

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


btw a lot of money to make today

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
I made a few hundred dollars last year and just put a bunch of money in on Jones winning since the comments in those markets are filled with insane true believers.

IM DAY DAY IRL
Jul 11, 2003

Everything's fine.

Nothing to see here.

Vox Nihili posted:

they want me back



oh god

welp, guess i'm back

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



Stereotype posted:

I made a few hundred dollars last year and just put a bunch of money in on Jones winning since the comments in those markets are filled with insane true believers.

I hope you are right and have been looking at some good data to back up your bet. Living down here in TN (which is, I will say, not as bad as AL) does not fill me with confidence that Jones will win.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
I'm not hopeful either. A new survey came out showing 67% of likely voting Alabaman's thought Jones had more moral authority, but the vote is still nearly tied.

theres a will theres moe
Jan 10, 2007


Hair Elf
I feel like you can always count on Alabama voters to do the worst poo poo possible

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



I can't believe that there's a thread in c-spam where people don't think Moore will win by at least 10 points.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Shear Modulus posted:

I can't believe that there's a thread in c-spam where people don't think Moore will win by at least 10 points.

He'll probably win by less than that.

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004

Yeah, I dumped my sitting money on "death is certain", but I don't think I'm going to bother with the point spread. If I lose, well at least the pedo loses too.

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
Margin of victory will probably be under 5% I am guesstimating.

Ruzihm
Aug 11, 2010

Group up and push mid, proletariat!


Vox Nihili posted:

they want me back



oh god

thanks for this. im back on my bullshit

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Anyone in on Moore v Jones in Alabama?

Lutha Mahtin
Oct 10, 2010

Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

i am not playing the 26-dimension chess required to have any actionable intel on that poo poo

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Vox Nihili posted:

Anyone in on Moore v Jones in Alabama?
uhh no

uhh

i mean yes

Snow Job
May 24, 2006

Lutha Mahtin posted:

i am not playing the 26-dimension chess required to have any actionable intel on that poo poo

IM DAY DAY IRL
Jul 11, 2003

Everything's fine.

Nothing to see here.

Vox Nihili posted:

Anyone in on Moore v Jones in Alabama?

I bought a very small amount of MOORE.NO shares at 26c in an attempt to ride the wave a bit. I figured the shares would equalizer to better represent the lovely polling and that I could squeak out a 20% profit. I ended up putting in a sell order that let me get out with 10% and I'm fine with that.

The interesting market for me right now is CORP.TAXCUT.2017. There is currently a 13c gap between the NO buy/sell market (36/23). I got in at 25c, again, to ride the wave a bit but the closer we get the better it looks as the wild underdog. TBH I'll probably dump if I can double the investment but, given the price gap, I don't know if/when that's gonna happen.

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

I have some No shares at 82 in the blowout bracket (14%+) victory margin market but that's all for that race.

bawfuls has issued a correction as of 08:26 on Dec 12, 2017

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004

I want Jones to win for obvious reasons, but also to save me from this website since I put most of my money on Moore.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I had some Jones shares that I bought in a flash of optimism long before the news came out about Moore. I sold most of them right away but I still have some left.

Womyn Capote
Jul 5, 2004


Im up on Jones after buying yesterday right before the fox poll came out. SHould I sell them now or wait until I lose everything?

Jedi Knight Luigi
Jul 13, 2009

Vishass posted:

I want Jones to win for obvious reasons, but also to save me from this website since I put most of my money on Moore.

We are in the exact same boat. If Moore actually does win I’ll probably either cash out or dump a bunch in yes for female Dem 2020 presidential candidate and forget about PI till midterms.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
Jones about to make me so much money. Goddamn

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GWBBQ
Jan 2, 2005


Vox Nihili posted:

Anyone in on Moore v Jones in Alabama?
Who's that? Is this something I would have seen in the news recently?

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