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The way to make money appears to be to buy in immediately when they introduce something that has an obvious answer like "Will Carly Fiorina be in the top-tier CNN debate?" The answer is obviously no, but if you get in early, it only costs 50 cents to buy No, even though No will quickly rise to 95 cents. So the question is, when do new markets get introduced?
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Aug 28, 2015 01:03
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pathetic little tramp posted:The way to make money appears to be to buy in immediately when they introduce something that has an obvious answer like "Will Carly Fiorina be in the top-tier CNN debate?" The answer is obviously no, but if you get in early, it only costs 50 cents to buy No, even though No will quickly rise to 95 cents. They're all located in D.C. and I get the notification emails for new markets around noon EST typically.
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Aug 28, 2015 01:10
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We need to instigate a campaign to spread the good word to places like freep so we can make more money. Primary markets can only remain stupid for another few months before they'll be forced to start converging.
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Aug 28, 2015 19:50
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Whenever I see a YouTube comment these days along the lines of "HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL" I like to reply that they can make mad money on that bet. The real trick will be somehow convincing them that this is like the White House petition site, if enough people buy YES face charges, it'll actually happen.
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Aug 28, 2015 20:29
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pathetic little tramp posted:Whenever I see a YouTube comment these days along the lines of "HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL" I like to reply that they can make mad money on that bet. Do people with correct shares get more money if a lot of people buy wrong shares?
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Aug 28, 2015 20:43
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Jewel Repetition posted:Do people with correct shares get more money if a lot of people buy wrong shares? Yeah it's a 1:1 market, you can't buy a yes share unless an no share is also bought and the prices are mirrors of each other. So, yesterday, there was a period where "Will Carly Fiorina be in the top-tier CNN debate" was overrun by people thinking that yes she would (I don't know, Carly Fiorina supporters?) So YES was selling for 80 cents a share. This means you can buy a bunch of NO for 20 cents.* When No turns out to be the correct answer, you make a dollar for every share you own. Since you bought at 20 cents, you made 80 cents a share. Or, the market will correct when it's more obvious Fiorina will not compete (closer to the event usually), and No shares will be worth 80 to 90 cents. You can sell early and make a 60-70 cent profit per share. *I forget the exact numbers so I'm simplifying here
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Aug 28, 2015 20:54
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this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started?
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Aug 28, 2015 20:56
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pathetic little tramp posted:Whenever I see a YouTube comment these days along the lines of "HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL" I like to reply that they can make mad money on that bet. No worries on that front, they're pretty sure that she's totally going down this time. It's what they hear on the talk radio all day every day. The more people who only expose themselves to fragmented, ideological, news the better for your bottom line. But even putting that aside, most people are going to buy shares based on their ideology rather than a data driven and impartial reading of the probabilities. Also most people are really, really bad at math.
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Aug 28, 2015 22:05
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The tough ones are the "what will the polling be for this" ones. It's not usually stuff like "Obama approval above 50 or below." It's more like 44.5 or 45? I didn't think it'd get up to 45 so I lost 6 bucks on that today.zeal posted:this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started? As long as you're in a state where it's allowed, you can make a deposit with a simple credit card. It takes 30 days before you're allowed to withdraw, and I think there's a minimum withdrawal, I don't know what it is.
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Aug 28, 2015 22:31
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the polling ones aren't bad. you need to check each poll used by that site, then start doing the algebra to figure out what the unknown polls need to be for x to happen.
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Aug 28, 2015 23:00
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Aug 28, 2015 23:04
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pathetic little tramp posted:The tough ones are the "what will the polling be for this" ones. It's not usually stuff like "Obama approval above 50 or below." It's more like 44.5 or 45? I didn't think it'd get up to 45 so I lost 6 bucks on that today. I wonder if there's any money to be made getting in at the very end of the polling cycle. The Obama approval poll ends in 5 hours, and the RCP average is 44.5. I just bought a handful of No shares on 45%+ for 93 cents, and if no new polls come out after 7 pm, I just got a ~6.5% return in less than one day. e: 20 minutes later and it's up to 96 cents, I guess it's more of a timing thing. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 00:15 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 00:00
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 I've put in some cash, a short term one for the Biden thing, a mid term one for the Rubio one (I'm convinced he's going to be the one, but at the very least he's gonna raise from where he is now), and a long term one with the Dems in the white house. Here's hoping I'm not a gently caress-up!
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Aug 29, 2015 05:04
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Unless you can lock in a long term at a super good rate they're not a very good bet. You'd do better using that money on short term markets. Unless you're picking up long term bets to flip when the market freaks. Oh if only I didn't have so much Biden at the high 40s instead of all that 20s from when the market lost it's poo poo.
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Aug 29, 2015 05:16
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:When a new market opens, how many total shares are available to begin with? Or am I misunderstanding how it's set up? I'm learning this just like you, but if I understand correctly there are no set number of shares. It's not like an IPO where 10,000 shares are up for sale. Instead when the market opens there are zero shares but they become created whenever a yes buyer and a no buyer agree on a price and create a transaction. There isn't a limit to how many shares can be created. Even later on if you want to buy no, you can purchase someone's no shares at the price they wish to sell, in which no new shares are created, or a new yes can come along and a new share will be created. If I am totally off base, let me know.
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Aug 29, 2015 05:18
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:When a new market opens, how many total shares are available to begin with? Or am I misunderstanding how it's set up? None. Shares initially have to be created by the traders. When a new market opens people can create offers on yes or no. Every offer automatically creates a counter-offer that someone else can purchase. So for example with the Hillary being prosecuted market: Initially someone could have looked at the empty market and said 'I think there's a 60% chance she'll be prosecuted' and offers to purchase 'yes' for $.60. That will also create a share of 'no' at $.40. If someone also thinks that 'no' offer at $.40 is worthwhile and purchases it, both traders get their respective share. Eventually enough people do this and the market will settle. Also at this point traders who already own shares can also offer theirs back up for sale at whatever price they wish. If someone already has a 'buy' order at that price, it goes through. If not, it goes up on the market and waits for someone to purchase it. Eventually it will become entirely sustained by already existing shares being traded and barring yooge swings or upsets not many more will be created. This is why the markets are so volatile when they're first created: there's so little volume that even small purchases can cause gigantic swings. tinstaach posted:I wonder if there's any money to be made getting in at the very end of the polling cycle. The Obama approval poll ends in 5 hours, and the RCP average is 44.5. I just bought a handful of No shares on 45%+ for 93 cents, and if no new polls come out after 7 pm, I just got a ~6.5% return in less than one day. There is. PredictIt hosted a party in DC a while ago and I got to meet a bunch of their 'high rollers' and it was interesting to see all the different strategies and approaches people have. The guy who's made by far the most money simply waited until the polls were already announced but the market still open and would either max out the cap ($850) or buy up all the remaining shares on the market. When I talked to him he'd made over $10k and that was a while ago when the volume wasn't near what it is now. zeal posted:this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started? It's literally a D&D poster's dream. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 05:25 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 05:21
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Alright I've updated the OP. Don't forget to link other posters / friends / loved ones / drunk strangers at the bar to this thread when you want someone to put their money where their mouth is.
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Aug 29, 2015 06:05
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Aug 29, 2015 07:23
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"Necc0"[/quote posted:There is. PredictIt hosted a party in DC a while ago and I got to meet a bunch of their 'high rollers' and it was interesting to see all the different strategies and approaches people have. The guy who's made by far the most money simply waited until the polls were already announced but the market still open and would either max out the cap ($850) or buy up all the remaining shares on the market. When I talked to him he'd made over $10k and that was a while ago when the volume wasn't near what it is now. but wouldn't those surefire shares be $.99? and wouldn't the $.01 return get taken by predictit's fee?
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Aug 29, 2015 20:08
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Abel Wingnut posted:
If he'd only run the scam once, yes. The 5% withdrawal fee is only taken when you actually withdraw, though. The 10% is taken only off of your profit. So if you buy $850 worth of $.99 shares you end up with 858 shares. At $.01 profit each you end up with $858.50 gross. 10% off profit is taken immediately, but is only $.85, leaving you with $857.65. Now at this point if you withdraw, yes you're going to lose a lot of money, $42.88 to be exact. So 5% of $850 is $42.50 so your break-even point is running this scam more than 8 times. After that you're essentially printing money. edit: I should add that the guy who made crazy money off this was doing it back when no one else had realized they could do this yet, so sometimes he was buying up sure-bet shares for as low as $.30. These would be the times that he'd just mop up an entire market buying all the shares $.30 up to $.99 Necc0 has issued a correction as of 20:20 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 20:18
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Abel Wingnut posted:
This confused me too, but they only take 10% off of your profits, so for every share you buy for 99 cents that comes in, you make 0.9 cents. and obviously the more expensive the shares get the less effective this is, maybe I just got lucky but if you can get some shares for 95 cents or less you can make more than spare change. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 20:33 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 20:31
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I've been trading on and off for the past few months. If you deposit by credit card, and you get 1-2% cash back on the card, that would help offset the 5% withdrawal penalty, hypothetically.
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Aug 29, 2015 21:29
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BigBobio posted:I've been trading on and off for the past few months. Even better if you can use the deposit to qualify for one of those new card cash bonuses.
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Aug 29, 2015 21:34
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Is the likelihood of Congress not even getting a BOOO IRAN DEAL bill through really high enough to have the Veto market around 50 while the Congressional Override market is in the 90s?
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Aug 30, 2015 00:03
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Yeah all signs are pointing the the Iran deal passing, there was some brouhaha that it wouldn't and a few big defectors, but I think that one's a safe no because he won't have to veto it.
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Aug 30, 2015 00:55
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Necc0 posted:It's literally a D&D poster's dream. and naturally illegal in my trash state
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Aug 30, 2015 00:58
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zeal posted:and naturally illegal in my trash state 
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Aug 30, 2015 01:00
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I'm ready to bet big on trump to win the nomination. He's at $0.28 and all the other republicans are collapsing. Predictit shows the top two candidates on their graphics. For the republican nomination, it's bush and Rubio, but Rubio is a penny or two above trump. Once trump passes Rubio, the graphic will show trump, the floodgates will open and the trump price will skyrocket. I also suggest we close the thread because I only want idiots participating in this site.
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Aug 30, 2015 01:34
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MisterJed posted:I'm ready to bet big on trump to win the nomination. He's at $0.28 and all the other republicans are collapsing. I wasn't aware RSF was open to the public. Mods?
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Aug 30, 2015 01:42
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Also keep in mind that while Trump's lead has been impressive, we're still a long long way from the primary.
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Aug 30, 2015 01:43
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Gyges posted:Is the likelihood of Congress not even getting a BOOO IRAN DEAL bill through really high enough to have the Veto market around 50 while the Congressional Override market is in the 90s? It's all about the filibuster. I've put a bunch of share in "No" for the "Will Obama veto a disapproval", because there's a possibility that, if there are 41 Democrats in Senate who support the deal, they can filibuster the thing so it doesn't even cross Obama's desk. If there's less than 35, however, then you get a disapproval passed through congress. Between, it doesn't pass because of the veto.
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Aug 30, 2015 02:22
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I'm still a little exposed on No shares for Bernie winning Iowa and they took another nosedive again; googled "iowa poll" and sure 'nuff, the Register released one not two hours ago
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Aug 30, 2015 03:02
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MisterJed posted:I'm ready to bet big on trump to win the nomination. He's at $0.28 and all the other republicans are collapsing. Don't worry, there are still plenty of idiots if Rubio is in the top two most predicted.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:14
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Yoshifan823 posted:It's all about the filibuster. I've put a bunch of share in "No" for the "Will Obama veto a disapproval", because there's a possibility that, if there are 41 Democrats in Senate who support the deal, they can filibuster the thing so it doesn't even cross Obama's desk. If there's less than 35, however, then you get a disapproval passed through congress. Between, it doesn't pass because of the veto. We'll have to see when they actually get back, but I'm still dubious that Reid can pull together a full 41 to filibuster it. Republicans only need to pick up 4 more to bring it to a vote and there's another 14 still left to declare. Yes on the veto definitely shouldn't be in the 70s or higher, but at least the mid 60s seems more likely. Of course the market might have changed since last I looked when yes was around 54.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:17
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Gyges posted:We'll have to see when they actually get back, but I'm still dubious that Reid can pull together a full 41 to filibuster it. Republicans only need to pick up 4 more to bring it to a vote and there's another 14 still left to declare. There are 15 undecided, and 12 need to be in favor of the deal for a filibuster to happen. Most recent reports are saying that 6 or 7 of the 15 are private "probably yes"s, so it's really down to five or six senators. I think Corey Booker is one of those, to boot.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:39
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I can't help but feel that the oil lobbyists, if they haven't already, will put this issue to rest behind the scenes and the various senators are just getting their harrumphing in while they can.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:43
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Necc0 posted:I can't help but feel that the oil lobbyists, if they haven't already, will put this issue to rest behind the scenes and the various senators are just getting their harrumphing in while they can. Would they be pro- or anti-Iran deal? I assume pro, because that means more oil, but they're pure evil, and I can't pretend to know how that works.
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Aug 30, 2015 04:09
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Yoshifan823 posted:Would they be pro- or anti-Iran deal? I assume pro, because that means more oil, but they're pure evil, and I can't pretend to know how that works. Pro. Big Oil is about the only American industry that can regularly tell Israel to get hosed.
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Aug 30, 2015 04:42
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Aliquid posted:Pro. Big Oil is about the only American industry that can regularly tell Israel to get hosed. Woah, I'm actually cheering for Big Oil.
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Aug 30, 2015 04:55
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Yoshifan823 posted:Would they be pro- or anti-Iran deal? I assume pro, because that means more oil, but they're pure evil, and I can't pretend to know how that works. http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/240916-us-oil-execs-to-travel-to-iran
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Aug 30, 2015 05:33
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