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Wanamingo posted:For anybody looking for some quick and (relatively) safe returns, the price of Trump finishing the month at 25% is down to 83 cents each. He's sitting at 26.8% right now, and I'm pretty sure the drop is from people expecting him to do poorly in the debate tonight. Post-debate polls usually take a while and there's only two business days left this month. That market will be a gamble just like always
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Oct 29, 2015 00:11
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Necc0 posted:Post-debate polls usually take a while and there's only two business days left this month. That market will be a gamble just like always Yeah, that's what I'm saying. There's only a single poll up on RCP which has him under 25, so he'd have to take a pretty big hit for it to not pay out. The reason it's cheap right now is because a few people are under the assumption that they'll have some post-debate polls right away. e: quote:Trump's going below 25% after tonight's debate. quote:He's going down in the debate, regardless of polls the swing is coming tonight. I'm all in for NO.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:16
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Wanamingo posted:For anybody looking for some quick and (relatively) safe returns, the price of Trump finishing the month at 25% is down to 83 cents each. He's sitting at 26.8% right now, and I'm pretty sure the drop is from people expecting him to do poorly in the debate tonight. I had been buying at 90 and I think I picked up the last 25 at 83. I agree with you. Not enough time for the debate to affect the polling. Even weirder, my Bush NO's are down to 93. The same people must think he's going to do good or something. This one is a VERY safe return. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 00:26 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 00:23
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Wanamingo posted:Yeah, that's what I'm saying. There's only a single poll up on RCP which has him under 25, so he'd have to take a pretty big hit for it to not pay out. The reason it's cheap right now is because a few people are under the assumption that they'll have some post-debate polls right away. Ah gotcha. Thought you were arguing for the other side.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:35
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I had been buying at 90 and I think I picked up the last 25 at 83. I agree with you. Not enough time for the debate to affect the polling. The Bush one confuses me. At least Trump dropped in the most recent poll, which moved the market a bit. That same poll gave Bush another 7, which is not what he needs to get to 10%. Yet the market dropped from 96 to 93. Oh well, free money.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:48
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I'm not getting in on the debate "win" market, but if I were, I would buy Carson to win at the current rate of 20%. The regular polling attrition/turnover gives him a huge baseline advantage, and 5x your bet might be enough to make up for the inherent weirdness.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:55
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Rubio's been pretty good so far. I'm regretting my NO shares, but I can't sell right now.
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Oct 29, 2015 01:43
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Huckabee making GBS threads all over the military good job buddy.
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Oct 29, 2015 02:32
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Hundreds of goons can't possibly be wrong!! What do promotional codes for card deposits do? Should I try to find one before putting in money?
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Oct 29, 2015 03:41
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Anyone with free cash: Speaking time Fiorina: 10:32 Rubio: 10:10 Kasich: 9:42 Trump: 9:26 Christie: 8:31 Huckabee: 7:39 Cruz: 7:34 Carson: 7:02 Bush: 6:39 Paul: 6:15 Fiorina bump imo
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Oct 29, 2015 04:16
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Anyone wanting to play the polls, Cruz winning is almost certainly stupidly over valued right now. The polls propping him up right now are among the next to go and Rubio is far more likely to pick up people jumping ship from Jeb! than Cruz is to pick up people. That 10 and that 9 are some real outliers on his average.
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Oct 29, 2015 04:24
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District Selectman posted:Agreed. But I also think you're too high on Jeb. High = anything above considering him a wet fart brought to life like a fart Frankenstein monster Yep, I severely overestimated Jeb
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Oct 29, 2015 04:29
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I'm real tempted to buy a bunch of JEB! Yes in Next To Drop Out after that debate. However as a registered Democrat that may bet me a big wet kiss from him for cutting my losses.
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Oct 29, 2015 04:48
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Gyges posted:I'm real tempted to buy a bunch of JEB! Yes in Next To Drop Out after that debate. However as a registered Democrat that may bet me a big wet kiss from him for cutting my losses. If you're still only thinking about it, everyone else has already beat you to it. I'm holding on to everything after tonight. Rubio, Cruz and Christie did the best imo; I have a ton of Rubio and Cruz NO stock and it sucks. Rubio is wayyy out in front compared to everyone else on the market and I probably agree with it.
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Oct 29, 2015 05:14
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You're not the only one, jebs up to 17c and the 3rd likeliest to drop out next according to the markets
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Oct 29, 2015 05:15
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Gyges posted:I'm real tempted to buy a bunch of JEB! Yes in Next To Drop Out after that debate. However as a registered Democrat that may bet me a big wet kiss from him for cutting my losses. Unfortunately until they finally do the linking, almost all YES best are overvalued. That said, the only YES I own is a Jeb! to drop the fuckout first and it feels fantastic Speakin of which, daddy needs some more, just a little hit, gimme another 100 Jeb YESes baby, mmmm, yeah that's the good stuff
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Oct 29, 2015 05:17
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I think I filled my scorecard with all the right picks on the NO side for both winners and losers from this debate, but I also snagged 400 shares of Fioria YES for winner for 5c which I think is my only oddball bet. My bets on Paul Ryan NO and Debt Limit YES will cancel each other out so I'm excited to watch these numbers go up and down.
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Oct 29, 2015 06:47
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Gyges posted:I'm real tempted to buy a bunch of JEB! Yes in Next To Drop Out after that debate. However as a registered Democrat that may bet me a big wet kiss from him for cutting my losses. I'm really skeptical that Bush drops out soon. His name recognition keeps him at a few percent no matter how horrible he is, and his money and donor groups will keep him in at least until he loses Iowa and NH.
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Oct 29, 2015 07:38
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he;lp do I sell my rubiNOs This is probably a panic, but Rubio is defnitely at his best position all cycle.
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Oct 29, 2015 07:56
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Lol Rubio is now over.50, this can't last
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Oct 29, 2015 08:01
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Hope my Paul Ryan Yes shares pay out soon so I can catch the tail end of one of the Oct 31 markets with the proceeds.
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Oct 29, 2015 15:51
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Vox Nihili posted:Hope my Paul Ryan Yes shares pay out soon so I can catch the tail end of one of the Oct 31 markets with the proceeds. Actually he's Paul D. Ryan now all shares resolve to No by default
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Oct 29, 2015 16:11
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Vox Nihili posted:Hope my Paul Ryan Yes shares pay out soon so I can catch the tail end of one of the Oct 31 markets with the proceeds. Likewise. PredictIt should open a market on how long it takes for them to actually close a market after the relevant event happens. With any luck it'll happen before Rand starts his "filibuster" of the debt limit/budget bill later today. Not sure if it'll make the market budge at all, but I'm always game to hoover up some underpriced shares.
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Oct 29, 2015 16:11
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Poll market, but Ramussen already has Obama at 50% approval in its latest update. You can currently get Obama YES @ 46% approval or higher for around 70 cents. After the Rass update, it'll go from 45.8 to above. Some small risk, but I like the chances. e: up to 85% now that the new Rasmussen is in. This is basically a sure thing at this point. railroad terror has issued a correction as of 16:41 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 16:23
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railroad terror posted:Poll market, but Ramussen already has Obama at 50% approval in its latest update. You can currently get Obama YES @ 46% approval or higher for around 70 cents. After the Rass update, it'll go from 45.8 to above. Some small risk, but I like the chances. You're fantastic, I was able to snag some shares with my Ryan money before it skyrocketed.
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Oct 29, 2015 16:49
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Combed Thunderclap posted:You're fantastic, I was able to snag some shares with my Ryan money before it skyrocketed. For those still looking to hop in, No on the level just below 46%+ still has some juice in it. Edit: not really any more. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 17:04 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 16:58
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The comments can actually be useful in figuring out the trajectory of certain markets. Luckily, there's just as many morons betting the exact opposite as what the trends say.
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Oct 29, 2015 17:08
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Just want to caution latecomers on the "sure thing" aspect: new polls drop (by which I mean are added to) pretty frequently for the approval numbers. If one were to drop tomorrow, it could be ruinous.
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Oct 29, 2015 17:10
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Vox Nihili posted:Just want to caution latecomers on the "sure thing" aspect: new polls drop (by which I mean are added to) pretty frequently for the approval numbers. If one were to drop tomorrow, it could be ruinous. It is still a poll market, I have no illusions about the risk involved. All hail the RCP gods, may they be forever merciful. 
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Oct 29, 2015 17:17
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Oddly enough, people are filling No buy orders in the low-mid 70's for the 45.9% or below market. Looks like I'm back in the poll business. 
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Oct 29, 2015 17:37
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Vox Nihili posted:Oddly enough, people are filling No buy orders in the low-mid 70's for the 45.9% or below market. Looks like I'm back in the poll business. And now the market has gone unhinged, huge volume in both directions. No idea what is going on. Why do I do this to myself.
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Oct 29, 2015 17:54
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Vox Nihili posted:And now the market has gone unhinged, huge volume in both directions. No idea what is going on. Why do I do this to myself. Pretty sure you can thank Gallup Analytics for the gossip that's causing things to skew sideways.
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Oct 29, 2015 17:59
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I guess Gallup just dropped a 47 poll? And the price of 46 or higher just tanked.... after a 47% came out. Poll markets make no sense. edit: Oh I get it, the last RCP had Gallup at 50, so that hurts Obama, but it's completely based on what RCP decides to do which is completely random and arbitrary. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:07 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 18:03
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Turns out I have Gallup Analytics access. Any ideas on how I can use this for the Good of Goonkind™?
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Oct 29, 2015 18:07
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Wow, looks like people with Gallup Analytics are thinking a high number from that poll is dropping from the average tomorrow. Down to 0.46. Jesus Christ, these polls are making me thirsty
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Oct 29, 2015 18:07
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I've been with 4 for 4 when I've played with the polling markets in the last two weeks. This might be the one that bites me. If it gets back up to .70 for YES on 46% or higher, I'm probably getting out. The GA people officially have me spooked on this one.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:11
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pathetic little tramp posted:I guess Gallup just dropped a 47 poll? Looks like that would be the average at EXACTLY 46%. Which is as good as 46.4% for the Yes crowd. Whole thing is bonkers.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:16
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They need more short term markets for me to stupidly put my money on. Someone please fill my Trump order so I don't have any free money and thus don't have the urge to find that new market to dump money in.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:17
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God drat poll markets, I put some money in and things go all to hell. I'm done with them once I'm out of this one.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:17
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Ah, I see why the GA people all freaked out now. May or may not be against GA TOS to share daily poll results, stupidly enough.
Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 18:33 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 18:27
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