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Necc0 posted:That was me Hahaha what the hell I thought you were the second guy they interviewed. You know I love you anyway, sweet baby Jesus. I will admit, I was worried that they were being pretty fair and letting everyone get some equal time, but I knew in the end that you can't stump the trump. Those first 15 minutes must have been hell for you. Be glad the market closed at 9 at least because those NO shares would have gotten super expensive shortly after that when it seemed like they were never going back to Trump. As it was, you were buying a bunch of 10 cent shares of a not-ridiculosuly-long-shot of a bet. And he ended up only about 3 minutes ahead of Jeb.
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Sep 18, 2015 00:56
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Stereotype posted:also Necc0 you sound like a goon hahaha The party started at 5:00 so I was pretty thoroughly drunk at that point. I was honestly worried all day that I was gonna sound worse than that. pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha what the hell I thought you were the second guy they interviewed. You know I love you anyway, sweet baby Jesus. I will admit, I was worried that they were being pretty fair and letting everyone get some equal time, but I knew in the end that you can't stump the trump. Those first 15 minutes must have been hell for you. Be glad the market closed at 9 at least because those NO shares would have gotten super expensive shortly after that when it seemed like they were never going back to Trump. As it was, you were buying a bunch of 10 cent shares of a not-ridiculosuly-long-shot of a bet. And he ended up only about 3 minutes ahead of Jeb. Yeah exactly. I bought my second batch right as they closed the market. I actually thought the sale didn't go through because it took me to the 'this contract is closed' page and I was kind of half relieved that my dumb bet didn't actually go through. But yeah at that point I'd realized Trump really wasn't speaking that much and most of the focus was on Carson. So I said gently caress it, why not? Also I didn't know he was only 3 minutes ahead. For as long as that debate went I'm gonna spin it around and say that actually no that was a really good bet that I took. Didn't pay out obviously but with those odds it was worth it. edit: And yeah when those first 15 minutes was a round-robin of every candidate split-screened with Trump I threw up my hands and went in for another beer. If they hadn't have done that I probably would have won 
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Sep 18, 2015 01:17
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses. It's hard to tell really. There's a weird mix of people not wanting to tie up their money, playing the trends, and having odd opinions that come together sometimes to just totally confuse me. For instance you can still buy Jeb! being under 10% for low 70s to mid 60s depending on the time of day. That's putting a decent amount of faith on his charismatic rise in the polls considering he's nearing Cruz numbers. Also there's like a week and a half to go and polls aren't exactly coming out fast and furious.
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Sep 18, 2015 01:54
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses. I would hold or double, not sell low. It's been up and down dozens of times so far.
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Sep 18, 2015 02:11
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses. Even worse, some guy in the comments claims to have flipped his maxed holding from No to Yes. Based on reasons. PredictIt is small enough that a $1900 swing can really pull the rug out from under things, and then people scramble to get on the profit train.
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Sep 18, 2015 02:20
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Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". Seriously. http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424209/joe-biden-josh-alcorn
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Sep 18, 2015 02:32
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tinstaach posted:Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". Thank god some random guy weighed in. Now we know for sure my Biden no shares are worthless.
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Sep 18, 2015 03:08
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Vox Nihili posted:I would hold or double, not sell low. It's been up and down dozens of times so far. Yeah I ended up not doubling but still buying a handful more shares at 41c. Now I have a nice round number to sell on the next upswing.
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Sep 18, 2015 03:09
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tinstaach posted:Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". That last paragraph, haha.
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Sep 18, 2015 04:04
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I love how much of an effect that had on the price. I'm still going off his interview on Colbert where he really didn't look interested in running.
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Sep 18, 2015 04:44
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Gyges posted:I kind of hope they keep having these and he keeps technically dropping out first every time. Lol.
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Sep 18, 2015 05:07
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Stereotype posted:I love how much of an effect that had on the price. I'm still going off his interview on Colbert where he really didn't look interested in running. Yeah, he's been pretty open about still being emotionally wrecked and probably not in a place to run.
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Sep 18, 2015 05:23
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What's undervalued right now? I bought up a chunk of "Jeb over 10% by end of month" because it was 14 cents a piece. If he shows any signs of life there's room to grow.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:03
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Golden Bee posted:What's undervalued right now? I bought up a chunk of "Jeb over 10% by end of month" because it was 14 cents a piece. If he shows any signs of life there's room to grow. I sincerely doubt he's going to be making any gains in the polls until Trump stops sucking all the oxygen out of the room. Anyways to answer your question the running theory itt is that the Biden running market is your best bet at the moment. We're all fairly sure he isn't going to run and the market is still roughly at a 50/50 split.
Necc0 has issued a correction as of 18:42 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 18:31
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I bought 100 shares that Rubio was going to win the debate for some reason. Luckily they were like 12 cents. I'm hoping there's a bump when the next poll comes out so I can unload them.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:45
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JEB! is still trading way higher than what should be the case.fronz posted:I bought 100 shares that Rubio was going to win the debate for some reason. Luckily they were like 12 cents. I'm hoping there's a bump when the next poll comes out so I can unload them. When the next poll comes out, the market will close.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:48
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Yeah the place to get in on Jeb was sub-10% back on Sept 1, I bought all my shares at 38, that's going to be huge. edit: Unless people think he did really well in the debates. One thing I've noticed if you just want to turn things around quickly, you have to get in on the newly opened markets and take a position. If you're happy making 10 cents a share and there's a month to go, likely the swings will get you that 10 cents at some point. Stuff like will Greece exit in 2015 takes forever and goes a long time without seeing any movement though. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:54 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 18:48
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GREXIT is still my only bad decision to date. I won big on the Greek Referendum and dove straight into grexit without thinking; bought at .43 and sold at .19. It's at .08 right now.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:50
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Aliquid posted:JEB! is still trading way higher than what should be the case. How do you get that from the rules here? I can only read that as that it closes on the 23rd.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:51
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fronz posted:How do you get that from the rules here? I can only read that as that it closes on the 23rd. Ah, you're playing that market until its dying hours. That's what I meant anyway; it'll only take a few days until the post-debate polls come out and it'll close. I guess you'll see some weird swings between now and then.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:54
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Aliquid posted:Ah, you're playing that market until its dying hours. That's what I meant anyway; it'll only take a few days until the post-debate polls come out and it'll close. I guess you'll see some weird swings between now and then. Yeah, that's what I'm hoping for. People betting erratically after the first poll comes in so I can offload those. Of course if Rubio doesn't do well at all I lose all of it but eh, whatever, ten bucks. For some reason people Carson is way overvalued for winning the debate, despite being one of the frontrunners. It seems like debates have a bit of an averaging effect in the first week or so afterwards.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:56
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Aliquid posted:Ah, you're playing that market until its dying hours. That's what I meant anyway; it'll only take a few days until the post-debate polls come out and it'll close. I guess you'll see some weird swings between now and then. It won't close until the 23rd. The market is artificially focused on the RCP average and certain dates rather than anything really tied to the debate, such as the polling immediately before and after.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:01
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Carly is about to kill me again. First I lost out in a huge fashion when CNN decided to change the rules to put her into the debate. Now my "anyone but Carly" bet that seemed pretty safe at the start is worth half of what I got it for. Gonna hold until we see a poll though. Carson is still on the upswing.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Carly is about to kill me again. First I lost out in a huge fashion when CNN decided to change the rules to put her into the debate. Now my "anyone but Carly" bet that seemed pretty safe at the start is worth half of what I got it for. Gonna hold until we see a poll though. Carson is still on the upswing. I think there's no way he gets that big of an upswing from this debate, as compared to 3-point Carly.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:04
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fronz posted:I think there's no way he gets that big of an upswing from this debate, as compared to 3-point Carly. That's the concern, though he does have a built-in upswing from prior to the debate (polling around 4% higher than his current average). Hoping for chaos, I guess. The RCP average tends to be a bit arbitrary, which arguably favors the field.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:19
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House just voted to defund Planned Parenthood, I'm hoping we've got some chicken littles in the shutdown yes camp who don't see it as just political gamesmanship and bought a quick 25 shares at 35 to see if I can turn them into 50. edit: And yes just dropped 5 cents. Dammit. Can't we get some dumb people on this site? pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:46 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 20:20
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Vox Nihili posted:Carly is about to kill me again. First I lost out in a huge fashion when CNN decided to change the rules to put her into the debate. Now my "anyone but Carly" bet that seemed pretty safe at the start is worth half of what I got it for. Gonna hold until we see a poll though. Carson is still on the upswing. I got hosed on Carly this round because I thought she was polling much higher, so I bet against her winning. Otherwise I'd be sitting pretty when I bought up my yes votes for the candidates couldn't possibly go any lower but aren't Ron Paul/Scott Walker to win at less than 10cents a share. Oh well, I got a bunch of no on Bush winning at somewhere in the 30s/40s.
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Sep 18, 2015 20:45
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pathetic little tramp posted:House just voted to defund Planned Parenthood, I'm hoping we've got some chicken littles in the shutdown yes camp who don't see it as just political gamesmanship and bought a quick 25 shares at 35 to see if I can turn them into 50. I'm in on Yes Shutdown too, but I'm waiting until next week when it's all over the news that they haven't passed a continuing resolution yet, because they are going to string this out till the last minute (why wouldn't they?)
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Sep 19, 2015 00:29
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Because of the reasons I detailed upthread. I'm still in big on NO.
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Sep 19, 2015 02:30
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Stereotype posted:I'm in on Yes Shutdown too, but I'm waiting until next week when it's all over the news that they haven't passed a continuing resolution yet, because they are going to string this out till the last minute (why wouldn't they?) I'm not convinced the amount 'Yes' will go up will be more than just buying 'No' now and riding it out
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Sep 19, 2015 03:53
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New market! WillNecc0 posted:'Yes' go up more than just buying 'No' now and riding it out
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Sep 19, 2015 03:54
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Necc0 posted:I'm not convinced the amount 'Yes' will go up will be more than just buying 'No' now and riding it out I've carried Yes from ~30c to ~40c four times now, so there's definitely money to be made even if there isn't a massive spike.
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Sep 19, 2015 04:32
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Gyges posted:I kind of hope they keep having these and he keeps technically dropping out first every time. They actually rewrote the rules for this contract to prevent this from happening again.  contract 1214 posted:Following the launch of this market, the first Republican presidential candidate to publicly announce the suspension or termination of his or her candidacy or of his or her active campaigning for president or for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, and to implement and maintain such suspension or termination for a period of at least one week without resumption of campaigning or announcing plans to resume such candidacy, shall be the individual identified in the question. Qualifying announcements may be made verbally or in writing by the candidate, the candidate’s campaign committee, or an authorized representative of such committee. Such announcement need not be accompanied by filing of a termination report or any other documents with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
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Sep 19, 2015 05:21
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Vox Nihili posted:I've carried Yes from ~30c to ~40c four times now, so there's definitely money to be made even if there isn't a massive spike. The problem is what happens when you end up holding the bag when that bet doesn't work out. So you've made 10c each of the four times you've done it so even if you ended up screwed with another 30c you couldn't sell you'd still be ahead but that seems too risky to me. Good on ya though.
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Sep 19, 2015 06:00
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Necc0 posted:The problem is what happens when you end up holding the bag when that bet doesn't work out. So you've made 10c each of the four times you've done it so even if you ended up screwed with another 30c you couldn't sell you'd still be ahead but that seems too risky to me. Good on ya though. There's always risk, of course, but markets like this one and the Biden market have a pretty well-known lifespan. There won't be a deal until near the end of the month, and Biden stated he wouldn't make a decision (lol) until the end of the month either. It also helps a lot if the market is very active. Also, try to buy the type of share you actually think is going to resolve, but don't be afraid to sell high and buy low again if it fluctuates a lot.
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Sep 19, 2015 06:58
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There is yet again more chatter that Biden is FOR SURE DEFINITELY RUNNING GUYS HE'LL ANNOUNCE ANY DAY I SWEAR. Is there anything to this or is it more of the same bs? Regardless of how true it is, all these dumb stories are making my NO shares lose value so it would be great if the WSJ could cut it out already 
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Sep 19, 2015 19:25
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A Time To Chill posted:There is yet again more chatter that Biden is FOR SURE DEFINITELY RUNNING GUYS HE'LL ANNOUNCE ANY DAY I SWEAR. Good chance to pick up some no shares on the cheap. 33 cents is a steal, in my opinion.
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Sep 19, 2015 23:31
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On the one hand I thought the PI guys would be a bit more immune to rumors than this but on the other hand more easy money for me. Cool
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Sep 20, 2015 00:27
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Necc0 posted:On the one hand I thought the PI guys would be a bit more immune to rumors Hahaha, that's a good one.
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Sep 20, 2015 00:34
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Wanamingo posted:Hahaha, that's a good one. The Republican primary market has remained really stable despite different candidates moving around in the polls but I guess most of the volatility in the Biden market is being driven by it's relatively short deadline. So let's try to assume Biden WILL run: What's the latest he could declare that would still make sense? First debate is mid-October and the first primary registrations close early November. I don't think it'd make sense to declare right before a debate without giving yourself at least a few news cycles to get your name out there in the public consciousness. I would think declaring either this coming week or next week AT THE ABSOLUTE latest would still make sense. Not saying he couldn't declare even later but if he did I wouldn't believe he was running a sincere campaign. Assuming he does run. Which he won't. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 00:40 on Sep 20, 2015 |
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Sep 20, 2015 00:37
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