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Stereotype posted:There's a good chance that Christie won't be in the next CNN debate, which has NOs trading at only 20c. He is currently ranked 10, tied with Paul, and is 11th according to the latest CNN poll. They are only letting 10 people in. drat it I had a bunch of NOs at 10c a day or two ago but got cold feet because it seemed like CNN was just gonna go the "uh our bad it's actually 11 people now" route wrt Fiorina.
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Sep 3, 2015 23:46
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Is there any resource to find out which individual polls come out when?
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Sep 9, 2015 00:14
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Is there some major news I'm missing that's causing YES Shutdown to crash so precipitously?
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Sep 14, 2015 20:42
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Gyges posted:No real news, I think a couple think pieces came out saying Republicans would be stupid to do it. Also polling that shows a sizeable majority of voters don't want the government shut down over Planned Parenthood. That's what I thought. Just wanted to make sure I'm not an idiot and somehow missed all funding issues being resolved for eternity and end up throwing good money after bad.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:52
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Vox Nihili posted:Back in on Biden not running. Shares are suddenly cheap again. Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses.
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Sep 18, 2015 00:28
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tinstaach posted:Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". Thank god some random guy weighed in. Now we know for sure my Biden no shares are worthless.
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Sep 18, 2015 03:08
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Vox Nihili posted:I would hold or double, not sell low. It's been up and down dozens of times so far. Yeah I ended up not doubling but still buying a handful more shares at 41c. Now I have a nice round number to sell on the next upswing.
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Sep 18, 2015 03:09
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There is yet again more chatter that Biden is FOR SURE DEFINITELY RUNNING GUYS HE'LL ANNOUNCE ANY DAY I SWEAR. Is there anything to this or is it more of the same bs? Regardless of how true it is, all these dumb stories are making my NO shares lose value so it would be great if the WSJ could cut it out already 
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Sep 19, 2015 19:25
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pathetic little tramp posted:Biden NO is climbing, I think I'm gonna sidle on out of that market with a pretty profit instead of trusting my gut that he's not running. I would like to do this too but with everyone dumping out at 0.45 it's not gonna go up enough for me to get my money back 
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Sep 21, 2015 19:06
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Necc0 posted:I think everyone here agrees that no one could have seen this one coming His campaign was based on screwing over the largest number of people possible. Turns out, that only amounted to trolling a few people on PI.
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Sep 21, 2015 21:42
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Is there a reason shutdown YES prices dropped so hard again in the last few minutes?
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Sep 21, 2015 22:04
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Abel Wingnut posted:http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/09/21/senate-republicans-working-on-plan-to-avoid-a-shutdown/ Bummer.
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Sep 21, 2015 22:16
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So is the consensus here that it's safe to hold NOs for now? Or should I panic sell at a 10c/share loss?
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Sep 22, 2015 04:55
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Necc0 posted:They're not going to close the market because someone filed fake papers a month ago Gyges posted:It's not actually Diamond Joe. There's no way in hell he could file silently a month ago and no one would notice. Especially with the press salivating at the thought of him and Hillary fighting. I don't at all dispute that the filing is super fake. But aren't the people running the site ridiculously spergy rules lawyers?
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Sep 22, 2015 05:05
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Necc0 posted:Yes and that's my point. Jindal actually DID suspend his campaign. That was enough to trigger the rules. Biden HAS NOT FILED PAPERS That's fair and I'm inclined to side with your interpretation. But devil's advocate: A Joe Biden entered, if not THE Joe Biden. The rules don't actually specify a particular Joe Biden (though obviously you would have to be on another level of  to not understand the spirit of the question).
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Sep 22, 2015 05:10
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In any case, I'll probably hold because I'd take a substantial loss at this point anyway. Might as well let it ride and hope PI isn't as dumb as its commenters.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:12
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I wish the shutdown market wasn't so stable. I was hoping for big swings when I bought in.
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Sep 23, 2015 19:51
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Wanamingo posted:Ayup. I bought a bunch of yes shares early on expecting them to go up, and just today switched to no at a small loss because I didn't want to get caught with my pants down when they pass the continuing resolution. I thought about switching to no but I kinda just wanna get out of the market altogether. It could go either way. At this point, I'm just holding on in the hopes it goes up a little bit this weekend and I can get my money back.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:56
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fronz posted:haha after this morning's bernie at 24 polls I got out of that market, because i didn't expect another poll to come out soon with him >25. whoops drat yeah I got scared and dumped all of mine a couple days ago. Oh well.
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Sep 24, 2015 00:49
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Oh cool I was asleep when the bottom dropped out of the shutdown market. RIP 80 bucks
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Sep 25, 2015 20:11
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Wanamingo posted:Looks like no on both the direction of the country and congressional approvals are good buys this week. Both have an old poll propping the number up, and after RCP got rid of the old polls from the presidential primaries the other day, I'd say it's likely they'll get rid of these too. I've already been fooled twice on congressional approval, so shame on me.
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Sep 26, 2015 21:30
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Jewel Repetition posted:Why did Rubio nom shares rocket between the 15th and 20th? My guess is the debate, though I'm not sure why since he wasn't particularly amazing.
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Sep 28, 2015 23:46
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Necc0 posted:God damnit. There goes my arbitration I am extremely dumb and still don't understand what that email meant. Can anyone explain it to me?
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Sep 30, 2015 00:43
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Necc0 posted:I have no idea. I know as a goal they're going to link all the multi-option markets so that there's an automated pressure pushing the market to 'rationality' ie: all the 'yes' shares in the republican primary market will add up to $1.00 Thank you. This post was infinitely more informative than that horrible email.
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Sep 30, 2015 01:01
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I look forward to Biden finding a way to both run and not run at the same time, thus ruining us all.
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Sep 30, 2015 23:05
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I managed to get out of Biden NO around its peak at 0.59. Might buy back in if it does get back into the 0.30s.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:45
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Holy lol at the mass email for the PredictIt debate party in Vegas.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:38
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Oct 7, 2015 00:00
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Necc0 posted:I didn't get the email. Post it  It went out to like 500 people, many of whom immediately replied all and turned it into a ridiculous group chat. The followup from PI was basically "whoops please forget all that personal info you may now have tia": Dear Trader, We apologize for an email that was just accidentally sent out that included addresses other than yours. This mistake will not be repeated. We request that you delete it and look for a proper replacement that will be sent to you. Again we sincerely apologize. The PredictIt Team
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Oct 7, 2015 01:02
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Fuschia tude posted:Yeah, this. The best was last week, where the week's new polls dropped it below the cutoff value... but because the aggregator site didn't update their moving average for the day until after the market had closed, it resolved to $0. Yeah I enjoyed losing that money so much I haven't really played on the site since. It doesn't help that the only things that resolve before a year goes by are generally the poll markets :/
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Oct 8, 2015 03:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah, there is that whole thing--though he would be pretty crazy to choose to run now when he could have gotten in months ago. No but you see Biden will unbeatable if he waits until the primaries are over to announce. The man is a genius playing us all.
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Oct 13, 2015 04:49
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I hope the BIDENRUN market stops its foray into rationality. I wanna pick up a few more shares of NO at sub 40c levels 
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Oct 13, 2015 19:03
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Biden's schedule has him attending meetings at the White House today. When he parachutes out of Marine One onto the debate stage immediately after getting a fistbump from Obama we're all gonna look pretty stupid.
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Oct 13, 2015 19:05
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Is BIDENRUN NO likely to go back down? I'd be willing to buy at 0.70 since it's pretty clear he's not gonna run. But if we think the crazy Biden fans on PI are gonna push it back down to the 0.50s for the Benghazi hearing or something, I'd obviously rather wait.
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Oct 15, 2015 21:02
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Never change, Biden market. I look forward to finally making the right bet on one of these things.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:56
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LMAO at the Biden market. And to think some goons were saying the Biden fans had finally wised up  Looking forward to NO dropping to like 0.10 when Biden announces that he for sure under no uncertain terms will not be running.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:26
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Vox Nihili posted:If Biden goes in now, it's possible he'll split the establishment vote and hand Bernie the win. Which would be great for me as Bernie fan, but probably not what the party is looking for right now. As a fan of Bernie, I too want this to happen. As a fan of the money I have on Biden NO, I don't want this to happen.
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Oct 16, 2015 23:07
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Gyges posted:Meanwhile there are probably more people playing multiple NO bets who are getting annoyed that it keeps getting pushed back. Seriously, why even announce it if you aren't ready to go? I don't understand why they don't just say "unlinked markets are dumb but that was our bad to begin with so all current ones will stay the way they are but all new markets will be linked." Boom. Done. No one can get mad.
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Oct 17, 2015 01:37
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Aliquid posted:Biden NO reaching historic lows and there's money to back it up. If he really doesn't run we'll have buying opportunities. Huh. Meanwhile I would be willing to buy NO at 80. Happy to get 'em sub 40 though lol.
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Oct 18, 2015 05:01
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 11:19 |
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I do believe there's an outside chance Biden is crazy enough to do something stupid like run, so I'm not gonna put in anymore money. But when he doesn't run I'm gonna feel really bad about missing out on a quintupling up event.
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Oct 19, 2015 19:15
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