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Just joined PredictIt today based on this thread! I was quite surprised to find a North Korea nuclear test market. Is the "by the end of the year" end-date for many of these a common end date, or is it just because we are near the end of the year (e.g. when the North Korea nuke thing expires on Dec. 31 and they decide to make a new one, is it more likely that the new end date will be 12-31-2016 or some earlier date 3-6 months out)?
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Oct 5, 2015 04:21
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Don't forget that you have to pay taxes on your net winnings as of the end of the year, even if you don't withdraw them! I haven't found specific guidance related to predictive markets, but online poker or daily fantasy sport taxation is probably a good starting pointDraft Kings posted:You do have to pay taxes on your Cumulative Net Profit from fantasy sports. DraftKings is required to issue 1099 tax form(s) to any player who has a cumulative net profit in excess of $600 for the calendar year. This is calculated by the approximate value as ((prizes won - entry fees)+bonuses). I'm not sure how the 5% withdrawal fee comes into play, though. Apparently there is a scholarly article on it as well, but the abstract isn't very revealing: words on words on words.
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Oct 5, 2015 14:10
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Necc0 posted:You have to hit a minimum threshold for taxes, don't you? Like $2k net winnings or something. I belive that technically any net winnings are reportable as miscellaneous income, per IRS mumbo jumbo. Draftkings just files a 1099 from their end if your winnings exceed $600, but that's not a minimum threshold for reporting income. You would certainly use the net $ amount if you cashed out before the year end and took the 5% withdrawal hit, but I'm not sure how that 5% factors in for net winnings still on deposit at PredictIt. Disclaimer: This is definitely not tax advice; do your own research or consult tea leaves before progressing further.
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Oct 5, 2015 22:29
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User Error posted:I really hope you guys are not all part of a conspiracy to scam me out of my money with Biden No. I'm in your boat. We'll go down together.
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Oct 6, 2015 17:30
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:what are the chances that the draft kings stuff results in regulations/laws that effect predictit Probably not too much, at least not in the near term (i.e. before the 2016 election). The only clear change that I could see would be to close the markets at x time (1 day? 1 hour?) before the actual event end date, so you can't hoover up cheap guaranteed money in the time when the market is open but the event has been resolved. It wouldn't change a McCarthy-type withdrawal situation, but would prevent trading on polling results that are already a lock. At that time the predictive markets aren't super useful sources of information, which in theory is the point of a predictive market run by a university. At any rate, I'm not to worried about the Draft Kings / Fan Duel thing.
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Oct 11, 2015 09:44
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Necc0 posted:arbitrators arbitrageurs  The looming linking change is definitely keeping me out of those markets for the time being.
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Oct 16, 2015 08:26
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New story about North Korean nuclear tests just came out an hour or two ago and has shaken up that sleepy market... relatively speaking. 175 shares have traded hands today, which is about 7x the normal daily volume and easily could just be one person gobbling up that many YES shares. I'm on the NO side so my G/L looks pretty bad right now, I'm still thinking it won't happen before the end of the year, so I may increase my NO position for cheap. Biden and nukes, what a world we live in.
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Oct 20, 2015 15:19
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Necc0 posted:If you read the rules it explicitly states that they have to detonate a thermonuclear weapon which puts an even heavier skew on NO. I do recall reading that in the market comments, and none of the detonations so far have been thermonuclear, so I'm still feeling pretty good. Bought up some cheaper shares as a result. If a nuke does go off I really hope PredictIt doesn't say "oops we meant any nuclear device and were just trying to fancy up the wording by saying thermonuclear". Speaking of thermonuclear, this Biden market has been nutty. I just jumped in as NO around 30 and have been tossed around like a ship on the ocean. It has been a wild two hours; I don't see how the rest of you have survived the last few weeks.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:14
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EngineerSean posted:my
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Oct 20, 2015 16:36
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Necc0 posted:Oh man I forgot the debt ceiling was so close. This ones gonna be good This one should be awesome. I ultimately think this one will end up resolving as NO because there's always little tricks and levers and pockets available to avoid hitting the debt ceiling on the initial prescribed date... I may toss a few bucks that way; need to mull it over a bit longer. 2-week turnaround is nice and short, regardless.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:32
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Tomato Burger posted:there's always little tricks and levers and pockets available to avoid hitting the debt ceiling on the initial prescribed date... Upon further research, these "extraordinary measures" have been deployed since March, so this may actually be the drop-dead date.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:41
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Concerned Citizen posted:Can we bet in Euros? Gold bullion or yen only. If my North Korea nuke = NO bid doesn't pay off, then maybe just bullion.
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Oct 20, 2015 21:51
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Congratulations to the 4000-share Biden NO goon. I got caught with my pants down (a classic Biden gaffe) by having too many cute orders in to buy/sell around the 29-35 cent range. Ended up making a 15% return in two days, but it could have been 330%. Live and learn, like ol' Diamond Joe would say.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:53
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Vox Nihili posted:You had me worried, there. Me too! The thing that bothered me the most was that the commentor's "mark my words" quote had no ending quotation mark, so I initially thought the whole rest of the paragraph was supposed to be a prophetic statement.
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Oct 24, 2015 11:49
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I don't know why they can't just leave the markets that are already out untouched, say oops, apologize to the academics who are supposed to be collecting data on all this, and going forward start linking the new markets. My hunch is that the most "interesting" markets for academics are the long presidential race ones, which are all linked. Keeping those as non-linked while making new markets linked wouldn't help the academic nature of the most relevant markets, so they're trying to implement a solution to those markets without jacking everything up. I'm not saying that's the right or wrong way to go about it, but that's my thought on why they don't just have linking on new markets going forward.
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Oct 26, 2015 15:15
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Fuschia tude posted:Uh, no, there is not a single linked market on the site today. Oops... not that they are currently Linked by PredictIt lingo, but that the most "interesting" ones (presidential, nominations, etc.) are all ones where there are multiple possible outcomes "linked" to each other. These are prime candidates for Linking when it is rolled out if they can find a good way to do it without upsetting existing markets.
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Oct 28, 2015 02:02
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I had been buying at 90 and I think I picked up the last 25 at 83. I agree with you. Not enough time for the debate to affect the polling. The Bush one confuses me. At least Trump dropped in the most recent poll, which moved the market a bit. That same poll gave Bush another 7, which is not what he needs to get to 10%. Yet the market dropped from 96 to 93. Oh well, free money.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:48
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Does RCP ever drop a poll on a Saturday? If not, the Sanders 25 is cheap for a payout tomorrow.
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Oct 31, 2015 00:10
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Necc0 posted:Also all he's technically done is modified his filing papers but hasn't formally announced doing so. No one noticed because no one really cares. This should be enough, based on the rules, correct? I found the FEC filing and it checks out (as did others). I was able to get in at 93 for something that should close in the next day or two, but there's still shares in the 95-98 range that should be a lock.
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Nov 2, 2015 16:10
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Annnnnnnnnd it's closed. That would have been amazing. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
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Nov 2, 2015 17:29
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Necc0 posted:I suggested a Nuclear Iran market similar to the current N. Korea one but they haven't opened it Are you this guy? quote:Here's what I requested: I think it would be a fun one.
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Nov 2, 2015 21:12
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Gyges posted:Looks like the first linked market is this week's job approval market. Welcome to the PredictItDome.
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Nov 2, 2015 21:33
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Is there a way to see all current markets? There's some weird ones like "Repeal Medical Device Tax" and "Gas Tax" that are searchable if you know what to look for, but never show up in any of their main lists. I bet there's some gems hidden out there.
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Nov 3, 2015 14:09
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Vox Nihili posted:Clinton posted a 62%. Might switch to buy & hold on the poll market, as dumb as that probably is. Here Lies Vox Nihili. He Bought And Held On A Poll Market.
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Nov 3, 2015 16:50
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This afternoon I showed PredictIt to my coworker and he was really interested in it. Unfortunately he's not a conservative rube, so you won't be able to bilk him out of money by taking the opposite side of the market. Fortunately, though, he does hail from Louisiana and gave me this hot tip: John Bel Edwards. I was showing him the app on my phone and bought 5 shares of LA R No at 0.75 to demonstrate how it works. John Bel Edwards ride or die!
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Nov 4, 2015 05:58
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Zeta Taskforce posted:It looks like Republican NO is a bit cheaper than Democrat YES. I assume that this is the same bet? Seems pretty safe since Edwards is polling double digits ahead Yep! I was initially going to buy D Yes, but since it is a 2-person runoff, R No is exactly the same bet, but cheaper. The price of both are dropping right now, though...
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Nov 4, 2015 16:57
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Nintendo Kid posted:You know it can be fun to play election results polls, even before they're close to happening: What site is that from?
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Nov 4, 2015 23:57
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I have 50 shares on Republican NO, but forgive me, I know next to nothing other than tomato's co-worker from LA said Edwards was a sure thing. Is this new information like a bombshell just went off, or is this something that has been kicking around forever? I ended up converting my LA = Dem approach into a pure arbitrage play. There's only two candidates in this final round, but Dem No + Rep No only adds up to .94-.97, depending on the hour. Yes, please, I'll gladly buy dollars in two weeks for 95 cents today. However, the Democrat win is still a good play. Just buy whatever is cheaper between D Yes and R No.
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Nov 7, 2015 22:24
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'd be careful about this particular arbitrage play. Based on the numbers I don't think it will work out for you. Hmm, that is an interesting point that I hadn't considered. When I was structuring the arbitrage scenario I was thinking of what factors I may have missed. I just lopped 10% off of my calculated outcome, but neglected to consider the "winning .75 per share" vs. "winning .25 per share" concept, as there is no offsetting negative fee for losses. Time to run the numbers again, thanks for the heads up!
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Nov 8, 2015 04:44
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'd be careful about this particular arbitrage play. Based on the numbers I don't think it will work out for you. Hmmm... you're very right. My initial calculations were that I would clear $11 x 0.9 = $9.90. With a $208 investment, I had figured for a locked in 4.7% gain. Running the numbers now I'm up $4.57 with a D win or down $5.57 with a D loss. Definitely not arbitrage anymore. Assuming a 75% chance of a D win (based on current market prices and my initial research) then I have an expected value of $2.03 = 1% return. And thus ends my foray into PredictIt arbitrage. Thanks for setting me straight.
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Nov 8, 2015 04:53
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fronz posted:he's been Jebbed. On a related note, Jeb > 7% seems oddly priced, unless a lot of people think he will hoover up a Carson decline... the RCP average has him at 5.5% and falling. I'm in at 0.71 and ready to be Jebbed if it comes down to it.
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Nov 9, 2015 16:47
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Corrupt Politician posted:I'm wondering Jeb has a floor of minimum support not much lower than he already is. Unlike the other establishment candidates he has a nationally known family name that's still fairly popular in the GOP. Yeah, I don't think he'll bottom out much lower than maybe 4%, just based on name recognition alone. However, 7% seems like a long shot to me as he's becoming increasingly irrelevant.
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Nov 9, 2015 17:02
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah something similar seems to have happened with the Graham market today, shot up 9 cents for no real reason, wish I hadn't put my sell orders at 21. I could have made 6 cents more a share. I learned that lesson when trying to get cute in the Biden market. Had way too many piddly sell orders staggered in. Ended up selling 200 shares at 30-36 cents each, netting $5, rather than riding the wave up to $0.95 and netting $120. Now I keep my sells as actively managed as I can, rather than being a circuit breaker in a panic scenario. Your results may vary.
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Nov 9, 2015 20:36
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thethreeman posted:I've got entirely too much money wrapped up in LAGOV, but news keeps looking better and better for JBE, and prices keep staying the same. I'm in way too much on JBE myself, but I've been mostly able to unwind my ill-fated arbitrage position from a few days ago, and at a small gain. If JBE yes (R No, technically) slides up into the 75-80 range, then I'll close out some more of my position and be sitting pretty. I'll still hold some R No all the way to the end, but I'd rather it be like 1/4 of my current position.
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Nov 11, 2015 22:20
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Gyges posted:Let's be honest, the very concept of mathematics was surprised at that result. Is there underlying logic on why the Republican poll was the average of 5 polls last week, but only 3 right now? I was running under the assumption that polls were only dropped when new polls came out, but that theory is now out the window. Is there a staleness factor too?
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Nov 16, 2015 06:35
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Bush hitting 7% is a wild ride right now... he got a 5 and a 6 recently, which soothsayers on both sides are claiming are a sign that he definitely will/won't hit 7 by the end of the month. I have a bit of money on No, but I'm mostly just enjoying watching the market while counting my Rubio Yes dollars.
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Nov 20, 2015 23:55
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I sold earlier when it hit 93, I had bought at 59 so I wanted to take some profits. I've been buying some today at 90. The way "average" works is every once in a while you need to have numbers above to cancel out the ones below. One commenter was convinced that Bloomberg was about to fire off a 15 for Bush. The actual result was a 6... not quite there. Then again most of the people on the boards think they are clever sharps who spread misinformation and buy the opposite side of the bet. I only trust Something Awful Dot Com for my predictive needs.
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Nov 21, 2015 14:13
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Zeta Taskforce posted:...presumably after Paris candidates with foreign policy should be favored. I think this is an initial gut-reaction of flocking towards the candidate talking about the biggest wall and monitoring mosques and everything. It is a huge outlier in general and I don't think other polls will follow suit in the medium-term. However, any other polls coming out very soon may show a similar reactionary impact.
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Nov 22, 2015 14:09
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https://www.jebbush.com A masterful troll.
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Dec 8, 2015 03:43
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Zeta Taskforce posted:There are a bunch of NO Trump Indy runs at 92 right now. This should trade back up to the traditional 96-97 range by the end of the day. Bought in at 95 this week, need to rustle up some capital to buy at 90-92 and take it to the bank. There's no way he would go from R frontrunner to IND in the weeks.  is there? 
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Dec 9, 2015 18:37
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