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There's a market that should be much more obvious that just opened to -- whether a moderator or "sanctioned questioner" will bring up either A: Cruz campaign tactics, re: voter violation form, or B: his claim that Carson was dropping out.
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Feb 6, 2016 00:29
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All my money is currently tied up in Hillary NO and Trump YES on NH, but if I had anything to spare I'd start putting Bernie YES in SC. I don't think he goes much below 18% after he gets some of his NH victory momentum.
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Feb 9, 2016 17:47
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Oh god I did it again I bet on Trump to win
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Feb 9, 2016 21:42
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Kasich in 2nd YES is so tempting right now. Haven't pulled the trigger though.
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Feb 10, 2016 00:38
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Well my trades have stopped going through lol. Good luck everyone!
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Feb 10, 2016 01:59
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Wishing I bought more than 12 shares at 34 cents for Christie - dropout YES E: I think you have to be careful about election night statements, re: dropping out. Campaigns will quickly do 180s just days after saying something else.
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Feb 10, 2016 02:51
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I'd love to take all my Trump YES shares and put it into Carson NOT dropping out to get a nice 6% return in 2 days, but.....dammit PredictIt, just close the Trump market! Also Christie please drop out. I was able to get 120 shares for Christie YES to drop out around 80 cents, I don't need that fat fucker's ego getting in the way of reality.
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Feb 10, 2016 15:18
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I think a lot of people are just waiting for the first real post-NH poll to come out in SC. If it resembles the previous 3 polls on the RCP average (Trump up by about 16) I think you're going to see it go up to at least 80 a share.
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Feb 10, 2016 16:02
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http://neworleans.ysktoday.com/sources-indications-point-to-chris-christie-suspending-white-house-bid/ Sources: Indications point to Chris Christie suspending White House bid New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is huddling with top campaign aides on Wednesday and all indications are they expect him to formally suspend his bid for the Republican nomination, according to two sources. Details are still being worked out. Make of it what you will. e: Source says Christie cancels SC event Wednesday http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20160210/PC1603/160219962/1031&source=RSS?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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Feb 10, 2016 16:11
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Arkane posted:Would be hilarious if he waited until Saturday to formally announce. It'd wipe out my gains from yesterday, that's for sure
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Feb 10, 2016 16:13
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Realllllly hope none of you invested hundreds of dollars in Fiorina staying in. I know I stayed off that wagon. Missed the profit, though. 11 minutes late. Hope some of you got in on that feeding frenzy.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:19
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Man, somebody won a lot of money on Carly. drat.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:21
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People getting mega spooked on Carson now, probably overreacting. Carson down to 81 cents to stay in the race past the 12th. I'm buying.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:23
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Any true believers on Ted Cruz in SC? The 0.25 YES buy there right now seems good.
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Feb 11, 2016 14:38
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nachos posted:SC 1st 2nd and 3rd place markets are now up I threw out some way-too-cheap Cruz YES for 2nd to see if anybody bites.
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Feb 11, 2016 16:35
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I ended up snatching up 1000 shares @ 20 and 21 cents. I could sell off about half of it right now and make $10-15 in profit....I might do that.
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Feb 11, 2016 17:31
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Dang, I didn't get 80 cents for NO, but I did get upper 80s. Kasich, if he's lucky, will double or triple his 1-2% in the polls there on election day.
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Feb 11, 2016 17:59
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The Webb market was the best because nobody actually realized he announced he was running officially for what, like, 12 hours or something?
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Feb 11, 2016 20:17
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The only thing I have money on in SC 3rd is Kasich NO. Looking forward to some actual polling and not Bill Kristol trolling for attention
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Feb 11, 2016 21:03
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I think a lot of first-time primary voters, or at least those who fell off the voter rolls due to apathy, are liking Trump's message. It's no surprise that him and Bernie are benefitting from same day registration. The big question is, and it gets bigger if that Opinion Savvy poll is even remotely accurate, is that would a strong ground game in a primary setting, as opposed to a caucus, would bring down Trump's numbers significantly?
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Feb 12, 2016 18:03
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NV Caucus likely will be a true coin flip -- Hillary NO is cheaper than Bernie YES right now. Hoping to flip a few shares for a little profit. Probably not going to stay in through the actual caucus though.
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Feb 12, 2016 19:50
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Yeah I'm getting out of the Cruz to win SC market now. I'll take a few $ loss....he definitely appears to be trending downward.
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Feb 12, 2016 23:21
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Hold onto .83 cent Trump in SC shares or dump them and wait for post-debate events to see if I can snag it a few cents lower?
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Feb 13, 2016 18:03
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Will the senate confirm a new justice in 2016? I'll say.....no. Big surprise.
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Feb 13, 2016 23:47
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I got 456 shares of Kasich NO for **2nd** in South Carolina @ 86 cents. Not too shabby.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:33
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Made about 25 bucks by buying Jeb 2nd shares at 9 cents and selling at 13. Realizing now I probably could have made even more by being a little less conservative. Oh well, profit is profit.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:21
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NV is tough -- Romney won both times in 2008 and 2012 with the Mormon support. I imagine if Rubio beats out Cruz in South Carolina for 2nd his price is going to go up, but not by more than 5-10 points if he can't bridge the gap on Trump. Still a good bet to earn a little profit at 12 cents, I think.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:02
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If you like to gamble a bit with the possibility of a great return, Rubio at .36 for runner-up in SC right now seems like a decent bet. Only because the polls are making this seem more like a true 50/50 coinflip.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:42
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The only SCOTUS market I'd be comfortable betting on right now is YES on the Senate voting (not confirming) on the appointee, and maybe a YES on the next nominee being a woman. The one thing you can definitely count on is a severe market overreaction to whoever Obama does nominate. That's where you can make some money on these markets. All my money right now is tied up in John Kasich not getting 2nd place in South Carolina, and I refuse to sell for less than 99 cents.
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Feb 17, 2016 15:02
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Isn't your cost basis 86 and you have several hundred dollars tied up and you can sell it today for 98? He probably won't get 2nd, but this type of reasoning is how people get wiped out. You're absolutely right ---plus, there's another guy offering 5000+ shares above me for 99 already. Might take a few days to actually unload this stuff. I'm better off just taking the 98.
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Feb 17, 2016 16:36
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Corrupt Politician posted:How much will Cruz's organization help him in SC? Also, why is Rubio gaining on him so quickly? I would have thought that Rubio had thoroughly been branded with the "Establishment Robot" label by now. Cruz has invested a lot in SC -- how his machine helps him (or doesn't do poo poo) will be pretty indicative of Super Tuesday results for him in like-minded states. I personally think Rubio is gaining on him because primary voters have short memories, support is soft and fluid during primaries, and Cruz has taken an absolute beating on several fronts. Nobody likes him outside his base. Meanwhile, Rubio, despite his hilarious robot gaffe, hasn't really screwed anything else up and isn't really in a different place than he was a week or two weeks ago.
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Feb 17, 2016 18:03
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The NV caucus market should be fun on Saturday.
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Feb 17, 2016 20:09
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Arkane posted:Rubio coming in a strong second would be very good, for me.  I agree
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Feb 17, 2016 20:50
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Yeah, can we get a market for that?! I'd love to see Cruz die on that hill.
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Feb 18, 2016 04:06
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I only bought in Jeb Dropout for 100 shares or so at .55 --- I'll probably sell if it cracks .70 some point soon.
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Feb 18, 2016 21:48
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C7ty1 posted:I went ahead and dumped my Bush Dropout shares at .83. I think it'll probably resolve YES, but I'm okay with taking the profit I have so far in case he decides to stick it out until the results of Super Tuesday. Yeah, I dumped Bush dropout shares around 81 ---- if he gets close to Rubio on Saturday (within a few points) don't expect to see him dropping out. Or at least put enough doubt in to send those shares back down to a more reasonable level
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Feb 19, 2016 15:09
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I think the site can be a very entertaining source of gambling! I've got 50 shares of Bernie YES in NV as my fun money today.
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Feb 20, 2016 20:25
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Looking forward to some entrance polling overreactions in a few mins
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Feb 20, 2016 20:56
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yeah I'm not seeing much movement so far. I feel like this is gonna be really close.
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Feb 20, 2016 21:08
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 15:48 |
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Yeesh. I got out of Bernie YES in NV with about a 25% loss, reinvested all my Trump YES in SC shares into Hillary NV. Once those hit 98-99, will probably reinvest back into Trump. Not my best day, but still looking profitable.
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Feb 20, 2016 22:56
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