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Paper With Lines posted:I still don't think there is a 90 percent chance Ryan gets it. He still doesn't want to be Speaker and it is highly unlikely, despite the FC's `endorsement' that they'll agree to the rule changes he wants, imo. He'd better not, I bought 500 shares for NO today before the crash. e: literally me, irl, right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMA3EKjbEwo Wanamingo has issued a correction as of 03:09 on Oct 22, 2015 |
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Oct 22, 2015 02:59
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You know, I just realize. I started using this site back in july, and in the intervening three and a half months, I've managed to take my initial deposit of $100 and turn it into a grand. gently caress.
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Oct 22, 2015 08:31
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Vox Nihili posted:Paul Ryan officially running for speaker. poo poo.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:12
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Vox Nihili posted:Right, but whether he would run remained in question. He has the endorsements of the major caucuses and a tacit semi-endorsement from the Freedom Caucus ("only" 66%+ support). There is nothing left in his way other than the formalities. I just sold, so he'd better get the position or else I'm going to have to kick myself even harder. Man, I wasted like $300 from my Biden winnings. I think that's my biggest single loss yet.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:58
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For anybody looking for some quick and (relatively) safe returns, the price of Trump finishing the month at 25% is down to 83 cents each. He's sitting at 26.8% right now, and I'm pretty sure the drop is from people expecting him to do poorly in the debate tonight.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:06
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Necc0 posted:Post-debate polls usually take a while and there's only two business days left this month. That market will be a gamble just like always Yeah, that's what I'm saying. There's only a single poll up on RCP which has him under 25, so he'd have to take a pretty big hit for it to not pay out. The reason it's cheap right now is because a few people are under the assumption that they'll have some post-debate polls right away. e: quote:Trump's going below 25% after tonight's debate. quote:He's going down in the debate, regardless of polls the swing is coming tonight. I'm all in for NO.
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Oct 29, 2015 00:16
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Aliquid posted:god help me I think Jeb! YES at .17 may be a good buy It isn't
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Nov 1, 2015 18:13
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Gyges posted:loving Kentucky. Lost all my gains post Biden, have fun watching your state burn down, guys. 
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Nov 4, 2015 01:35
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Yikes, is it really over already? Nah, only half the vote is in and the republican guy is up by 4.4%. I'm gonna hang in until the end.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:37
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Hope Conway will pull through for the sake of Kentucky's health care system if nothing else.
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Eh, these things happen. I think I'll probably buy back in with like $50 tomorrow. e: just for the record, that would be a total of $150 that I've put into the site, versus the $850 check I withdrew and am still burning my way through.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:49
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I finally bought back in after going bust a few days ago, and I'm already down $2.70. hooray
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Nov 8, 2015 22:32
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What exactly did you do the first time? Not to pick, but we all learn from what strategies work and don't work. What are some of your big bets now? I withdrew a bunch and stuck what was left on the Kentucky governer race, since it seemed pretty safe. No real lesson to be learned here apart from not sticking all your eggs in one basket, which I assume most of you should already know. I don't have any big bets going right now, I just loaded in another $50 and spread it over a few markets.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:49
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Necc0 posted:I should have bought into that market, too They were originally supposed to vote for it on the third (I think?) but delayed it until the fifth. There was a bunch of worry that they might do the same thing again. Vox Nihili posted:I'm convinced tonight's debate is more likely than not to beat 15m viewers. The last one on CNBC hit 14m while competing against the World Series. Fox is pushing this one hard and there isn't any sort of equivalent competition tonight. There has also been a lot of Carson controversy stirring the pot, a new number of candidates/format, etc. Remember, the debate isn't on the Fox News Channel, it's on the Fox Business Network. There could be less viewers just because people don't know that FBN is a channel.
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Nov 10, 2015 19:40
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pathetic little tramp posted:Not me, but that makes me think - there's a definite market in going into the comments section as wildly partisan and forcing people to spite-buy in the opposite direction. I'll admit to occasionally getting drunk or high and trolling the comments every now and then. Fortunately I've always had to presence of mind to not actually buy or sell while doing that.
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Nov 10, 2015 20:36
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I really want to dump all my shares and put the money into buying yes on the Starbucks question, but I'm not going to because I know it's a dumb idea. Posting this so I can publicly kick myself later for not taking the opportunity when I could.
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Nov 11, 2015 02:36
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Wanamingo posted:I really want to dump all my shares and put the money into buying yes on the Starbucks question, but I'm not going to because I know it's a dumb idea. Hooray, I managed to learn my lesson after the last time I dumped all my money into one market.
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Nov 11, 2015 05:27
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VladimirLeninpest posted:Whooooops. Shouldn't have bet on StarbucksYes. For what it's worth, I was surprised too. It would've been a stupid as hell question, and it's not often you lose money by underestimating the political discourse in this country.
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Nov 11, 2015 05:51
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Necc0 posted:I've now washed away all my Biden winnings You didn't withdraw any? gently caress, I'm wearing a silk man thong I bought with my Biden winnings right now. I just went ahead and bought 90 shares for O'Malley being the winner of the debate, wish me luck.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:39
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Vox Nihili posted:I just went in big on O'Malley getting the biggest post-debate bump. Hillary currently leading by 0.2% after PPP, but O'Malley showing that his new range is around 5%. A couple more polls and I think he'll take this. Wish I hadn't gotten cold feet on that market yesterday, I sold off half my (already meager) position at a slight loss.
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Nov 20, 2015 01:43
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Well alright, I'm up $20 today. That's not too bad at all with only $50 invested.
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Nov 22, 2015 01:02
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What's the deal with the FBN debate winner market? It's 30 cents for Trump YES, even though he's had a decrease of .2%.
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Nov 22, 2015 04:50
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Gyges posted:Trump Bump No is currently at 72 Buy/24 Sell if you want to try and buy in at sub 30. What the gently caress I just lost $35 
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Nov 22, 2015 06:33
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Weird swing just happened in the weekly right direction market. YES was selling at 20 cents a share, and then somebody bought up everything they could. Granted it wasn't a very deep market since it only went up to 60 cents each, but for a while there were absolutely zero YES shares available.
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Nov 23, 2015 17:01
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Necc0 posted:ninja x2 edit: PredictIt also isn't allowed in Washington or Nevada I'm in Washington and I'm using it just fine.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:14
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For anybody looking to make a quick turnaround, the government shutdown market closes in a week. It's selling at 95 cents each for NO right now, but it's worth keeping an eye on in case it goes down a bit as we get closer to the deadline.
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Dec 8, 2015 00:16
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thethreeman posted:very clear trend of people getting bored and the Dec 15th debate is closer to the holidays when people might be traveling. But being back on a major network, on a weeknight, with all the trumpmentum, the US/Paris attacks, etc, I'm torn. Already up on a handful of 22+ shares, but I might just try to take advantage of swings/inefficiencies since this feels really hard to predict. For what it's worth, I saw a TV commercial advertising the debate today. I don't think any of the others had much advertisement, did they?
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Dec 8, 2015 08:29
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Adar posted:Hilldawg is at 89.8 or whatever; if you're gonna go milquetoast you should put it on the predictable megalomaniac, not the crazy one For what, winning the nomination? That's going to take months to pay out, the Trump third party market will close in a few weeks.
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Dec 10, 2015 00:14
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Fuschia tude posted:What I don't understand are the CNN debate viewership numbers. Their last CNN debate got 24 million, Trump just Trumped this month and people are expecting fewer viewers? To be fair, there's a very clear downward trend with the debate ratings. Each one has had fewer viewers than the last one. That being said, I do agree that 22 million or more is a fairly safe bet. Not just because of Trump, but also because CNN has been running ads for it. I've got $20 riding on it, which I feel is worth risking.
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Dec 11, 2015 05:35
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Is there a consensus here on the medical device tax market?
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Dec 15, 2015 15:57
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nachos posted:My understanding is that the predictit YES prices are going up because dems might horse trade away a "pause" in the medical device tax as opposed to an outright repeal. Given this congress, any pause should be interpreted as a de facto repeal and so I don't think this is likely and that NO is undervalued right now. nachos posted:Medical tax is now crashing because of this report Right after I put in $8 on NO, too. That's enough for a decent lunch 
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Dec 15, 2015 21:28
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Looks like 18 million people watched the debate, and I'm almost bust now because of it
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Dec 16, 2015 19:12
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Vox Nihili posted:I was considering putting a no bet on that inflated top number (22+ million, was it?), but instead decided to go with the "predictable" speaking market. gently caress. I lost a few bucks there, too. Considering going the George Costanza route with the rest of my money and betting against what I think will happen
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Dec 16, 2015 19:23
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Hooray, the random crapshoot I put down on Obama's Gallup average payed out. Shame I wasn't able to bet on Carson being the biggest loser of the debate, I wanted to yesterday when it was at 50 cents but didn't have any money. I think I'll go ahead and dump my available funds into the lowest tier for the ABC debate ratings and hope I do better than I did with the CNN debate.
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Dec 18, 2015 23:21
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What's everybody's opinion on the ABC debate speaking time market? Hillary seems way overpriced at 80 cents, so I went ahead and put down a whopping $5 on Sanders. e: I just now realized it would have been cheaper and (technically) safer to bet against Hillary rather than for Sanders. Oh well
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Dec 20, 2015 00:24
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Peachstapler posted:The media frenzy over this data breach is making it hard to gauge what's going to happen tonight. Conventional wisdom is it'll be a Clinton-Sanders arguefest, but I'm living dangerously --- bought $5 in O'Malley. Hey, stranger things have happened. I was also thinking about throwing down a few bucks on them not mentioning gun control, but decided against it. I did find the rules for that market pretty funny, though. quote:During the presidential debate conducted by ABC on December 19, 2015, a moderator or candidate will utter the exact phrase "gun control." The two words must be uttered intelligibly, completely, consecutively, and imparting the phrase's usual meaning.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:41
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watwat posted:Hillary has the speaking time in the bag. I loved watching the price swings when Bernie got a bit of a head start. 
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Dec 20, 2015 03:26
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a cop posted:Lol I put like 5 bucks on Sanders winning speaking time because gently caress it, it's 5 bucks. How much did you guys spend? I originally just bet $5, and then I put in another 10 after he took the early lead Not exactly breaking the bank here, but still
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Dec 20, 2015 05:45
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If he somehow wins the presidency, would there be any legal problems with running a venture like that at the same time? I know Carter stuck his peanut farm in a blind trust (that ended up really mismanaged) during his presidency, but I don't know if he had to do that or if he just wanted to.
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Dec 27, 2015 23:11
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Oct 3, 2016 06:25
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