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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I hate to break it to you all, but he's gonna run. He hasn't done a single thing that would indicate he wasn't. Until today, yowza: http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/26/politics/joe-biden-dnc-conference-call/
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Aug 27, 2015 11:28
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Translation: I'm buying time to get my ducks in a row before I announce. Hoo boy. Folks with money on yes would find evidence of his intent to run in bird entrails.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:37
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Necc0 posted:Also this just opened today, should be fun: This requires a criminal charge, though, not just any lawsuit.
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Aug 27, 2015 19:04
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What's a reasonable amount of money to put into this? I know you can bet $850 max per market but is there some upper amount of money where people have found it tedious to try to accumulate enough shares to make it worth it? Or are the markets fluid enough that if you want to buy 1000 shares and you put in some reasonable price in the middle of the trading range they tend to be quickly filled so it is a moot point? There are lots of people maxing out. It's probably the only way to make anything significant on arbitrage and such. That said, don't put in money you aren't willing to lose. It's an unregulated experimental market.
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Aug 28, 2015 00:54
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BigBobio posted:I've been trading on and off for the past few months. Even better if you can use the deposit to qualify for one of those new card cash bonuses.
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Aug 29, 2015 21:34
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha, CNN just decided to go against the RNC and the FEC to capitulate to the pressure and let Fiorina in. There goes my money. I got wrecked on this, but I think watching the debate will probably be worth more than what I lost.
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Sep 2, 2015 00:07
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A Time To Chill posted:drat it I had a bunch of NOs at 10c a day or two ago but got cold feet because it seemed like CNN was just gonna go the "uh our bad it's actually 11 people now" route wrt Fiorina. They did: "If the eligibility window closed today, CNN's analysis of polls conducted from July 16 shows that Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, John Kasich and Chris Christie would qualify for the top-tier debate. With today's change, Fiorina would also qualify for the top-tier debate." This is from CNN's own report on itself. Count it, that's eleven.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:23
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fronz posted:It would be cool if, due to a statistical tie, they let everyone into the big kids debate except Graham, and still hold a kids table debate just for him. I've been thinking about it, and with the 1% floor and potential ties, it could well turn out that there is a second tier "debate" with one poor, sad candidate at some point.
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Sep 4, 2015 02:24
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Any reason not to buy Yes on Christie making the next debate? Going at 90c, and it seems virtually impossible that 8 polls with Christie at 0% will drop within a week. CNN would have to specifically exclude Christie, which it already said at the Fiorina announcement that it would not.
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Sep 5, 2015 00:17
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fronz posted:Link to the Fiorina announcement? http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-criteria-amendment/
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Sep 5, 2015 01:06
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Stereotype posted:Here's a link to the actual rules You might want to try reading those again. I suggest focusing on Section 7a, which clearly allows additional candidates beyond the top 10 from Section 7.
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Sep 5, 2015 02:07
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Stereotype posted:If there is one more poll before the 10th, Fiorina gets a 5 or above, and Christie gets a 3 or below, then she becomes 10th for the July 16th to September 10th average, knocking Christie to 11th and out of the section 7a qualifications. Nope, it's no where near one poll of 5 or above vs. one poll of 3 or below to knock Christie out of the Section 7 qualification. I don't know if you're including polls that CNN isn't using, looking at the RCP numbers, or what, but the actual numbers are no where near that. For example, the most useful poll for pushing down Christie, the PPP poll with him at 2% and Fiorina at 8%, is not included in the CNN average. In your previous post, you said Christie and Paul are tied; this is not true. I think you are looking at the RCP averages rather than the CNN qualifying polls, which look much further back and exclude several recent polls. This chart doesn't include the most recent poll, but the excluded poll has Christie at 2% and Carly at 4%, not nearly enough to move the numbers here:  Stereotype posted:He is already not in the top 10 in the August 7th to September 10th average, and if he polls similarly to what he is now, he won't be. (7b might be an average or might be ANY poll in that period, it isn't really clear), He was never going to make it in under the August to Sept. polling average, which was added specifically to add Fiorina as an 11th candidate. There is no Section 7b, so I don't know what you're referring to there. quote:I think it was a risk worthy of buying some 10c stock. Plus it would be extra hilarious to see him pouting on the B-team stage if I also won money on it. I think you'll find plenty of 10c No shares available if you want to make that bet. Barring any further CNN changes, it looks like a long shot.
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Sep 5, 2015 03:47
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Golden Bee posted:The "can't lose" prospect of Biden Will Run shares has been a loser this week, going from 56/share to low-mid 30s. I've got a bunch of No shares on this one, not sure if I should sell or hold at this point. Looks like the price will keep going up, but I don't want to be caught unaware if Biden actually pulls the trigger, which is still possible.
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Sep 5, 2015 23:20
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fronz posted:I think if he's going to announce it'll be on Colbert's show, and I don't think he will; no is going to go way up if he doesn't announce on the show I think the odds of a Colbert announcement are close to zero. Biden said he would make his decision around the end of the month, I think. Anyway, here are my current positions:  Trying to sell the Carson @ Iowa shares, holding the rest for the moment.
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Sep 5, 2015 23:33
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Gyges posted:So if I'm holding some 33 on Biden not running, should I wait until his late night appearance this week temporarily crushes the hopes of the yes people? I don't think he's going to get in, but dude's still not in a good place and he really does want to run again. Since it dropped a bit for no reason, I would hold until it bumps back up.
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Sep 7, 2015 21:22
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Concerned Citizen posted:I'll say that there is a rumor going around that Biden's committee has begun recruiting finance staff and will make a surprise announcement next week. The Draft Biden SuperPAC has also somehow come into a large amount of money and is now staffing up in the four early voting states. Thanks for the tip, do you know where the rumor came from?
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Sep 8, 2015 00:03
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Concerned Citizen posted:The SuperPAC stuff is public record. JobsthatareLEFT, a Dem staff job board, had them up (under the header "National Presidential Political Organization" or something to that effect, but the from line was connected with a Draft Biden employee). The finance stuff I heard about a week ago from a Dem staffer not connected with the Biden people. Their friend was approached about it. I've also heard from another source in Dem politics as well that folks have been approached about joining Biden staff. Again, just rumors. Nothing I can personally attest to, but I personally place credence in it. I knew the Draft Joe people have been hiring, so that's not too surprising. I guess the question is whether any of these positions are directly connected with Biden, rather than the Biden PACs and other boosters.
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Sep 8, 2015 09:58
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By the way, he isn't going to announce on Colbert: http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2015/09/02/a-biden-announcement-on-colbert-no-way/ People will expect him to, though, so the price will probably spike before the show and crash afterwards. Whether he announces later is another question.
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Sep 8, 2015 09:59
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Necc0 posted:Still got cold feet and liquidated 1/3 of my 'No' shares at a meager profit despite this. I'll ride out the rest of 'em to see where this goes. A bunch of mine sold at 61c overnight somehow, so I'm down to 100 shares. I'll definitely buy back in if he doesn't announce by next Tuesday.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:13
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Wanamingo posted:e: for perspective, in the two months I've been using the site, I've managed to make a full 500% return just by not being a moron. I feel like the only way to achieve that outcome is to get in on new markets from the start or assume a pretty substantial amount of risk.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:14
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By the way, this looks like a pretty good deal: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1166 The filibuster is almost a done deal, yet No is selling in the 80 cent range.
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Sep 8, 2015 19:19
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Wanamingo posted:I'm not exactly a political genius, and I'm only bothering with the barest of strategic betting. I would assume that there are other people here who are managing to do loads better than I am. Which markets have you been playing in, if you don't mind me asking?
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Sep 8, 2015 19:56
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Wanamingo posted:Here's what I have right now. I'm planning on selling the Biden shares as soon as possible because I don't think he's going to run, and I got burned on the Palmer one because I didn't clear some buy orders. Occasionally I'll bet on the direction of the country and congressional approval markets if they seem safe enough. I think my biggest individual win so far has been betting that Trump will not have the largest drop in the polls following the first debate. Looks like we're opponents on the Biden market. Only thing I question there is the Palmer extradition choice, though.
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Sep 10, 2015 01:10
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Necc0 posted:Welp. Biden didn't announce anything. Glad I held on to the majority of my shares. According to the tip it was the 14th, I think.
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Sep 10, 2015 01:12
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Seems like a pretty easy no since an extension and future shutdown would still resolve to no. They will have to fail to even get an extension in place for yes to win. Plus it's election season and all.
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Sep 10, 2015 23:16
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Yoshifan823 posted:New markets are up! Along with the typical polling questions, you have three questions about this week's debate. Who will win, who will lose, and who will get the most airtime. Some of these didn't show up for me in the new arrivals section. Run a search for "debate" to see 'em.
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Sep 11, 2015 22:16
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fronz posted:i see you commenting... vox nihi1i No relation. 
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Sep 11, 2015 22:17
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DaveWoo posted:So, who had Rick Perry in the "first to drop out" pool? Some poor souls who got screwed by rules wizards when Jindal "suspended" his campaign.
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Sep 11, 2015 22:44
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:So when do we cash in on Trump's eventual fall? I wouldn't try it. Every time he does something that should collapse his support, it rises instead. You can always bet in the primary winner and president markets, though, he's probably overvalued there.
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Sep 13, 2015 19:57
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pathetic little tramp posted:gently caress it, that sounds like fun. I'm going to try to make a profit on both sides of this coin. I just sold 50 no shares for about ˜30 cents profit each, now I'm going to buy up 50 yes shares and see if I can make at least a quarter on each. I think this is the right idea. I've dumped about 200 no shares so far, no reason not to pull the trigger and lock in a profit in something this volatile. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 08:31 on Sep 15, 2015 |
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Sep 15, 2015 08:17
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Aliquid posted:Okay, Bernie winning Iowa: I'm sitting at $.71 NO and I can currently sell at $.40. I should definitely sit on this, right? Hillary's bound for a rebound, conventional wisdom says. I would not sell it at this time, yeah.
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Sep 15, 2015 08:32
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Back in on Biden not running. Shares are suddenly cheap again.
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Sep 17, 2015 23:58
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses. I would hold or double, not sell low. It's been up and down dozens of times so far.
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Sep 18, 2015 02:11
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses. Even worse, some guy in the comments claims to have flipped his maxed holding from No to Yes. Based on reasons. PredictIt is small enough that a $1900 swing can really pull the rug out from under things, and then people scramble to get on the profit train.
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Sep 18, 2015 02:20
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tinstaach posted:Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". That last paragraph, haha.
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Sep 18, 2015 04:04
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Aliquid posted:Ah, you're playing that market until its dying hours. That's what I meant anyway; it'll only take a few days until the post-debate polls come out and it'll close. I guess you'll see some weird swings between now and then. It won't close until the 23rd. The market is artificially focused on the RCP average and certain dates rather than anything really tied to the debate, such as the polling immediately before and after.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:01
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Carly is about to kill me again. First I lost out in a huge fashion when CNN decided to change the rules to put her into the debate. Now my "anyone but Carly" bet that seemed pretty safe at the start is worth half of what I got it for. Gonna hold until we see a poll though. Carson is still on the upswing.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:03
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fronz posted:I think there's no way he gets that big of an upswing from this debate, as compared to 3-point Carly. That's the concern, though he does have a built-in upswing from prior to the debate (polling around 4% higher than his current average). Hoping for chaos, I guess. The RCP average tends to be a bit arbitrary, which arguably favors the field.
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Sep 18, 2015 19:19
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Necc0 posted:I'm not convinced the amount 'Yes' will go up will be more than just buying 'No' now and riding it out I've carried Yes from ~30c to ~40c four times now, so there's definitely money to be made even if there isn't a massive spike.
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Sep 19, 2015 04:32
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Necc0 posted:The problem is what happens when you end up holding the bag when that bet doesn't work out. So you've made 10c each of the four times you've done it so even if you ended up screwed with another 30c you couldn't sell you'd still be ahead but that seems too risky to me. Good on ya though. There's always risk, of course, but markets like this one and the Biden market have a pretty well-known lifespan. There won't be a deal until near the end of the month, and Biden stated he wouldn't make a decision (lol) until the end of the month either. It also helps a lot if the market is very active. Also, try to buy the type of share you actually think is going to resolve, but don't be afraid to sell high and buy low again if it fluctuates a lot.
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Sep 19, 2015 06:58
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