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A Time To Chill posted:There is yet again more chatter that Biden is FOR SURE DEFINITELY RUNNING GUYS HE'LL ANNOUNCE ANY DAY I SWEAR. Good chance to pick up some no shares on the cheap. 33 cents is a steal, in my opinion.
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Sep 19, 2015 23:31
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Wanamingo posted:The republican primary market is giving Trump and Kasich equal odds now, and Jeb is still considered the most likely to win. Kasich is like the new Ron Paul for prediction markets. I bought No on him in the 79-81 cent range and the market refused to budge for months. Looks like he's still inflated by about a factor of two or three over where he could reasonably be placed. The Yes inflation in that market is somehow more ridiculous than ever. People really hate pressing the No button, it seems. I think Jeb on top by a couple points is probably reasonable, though.
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Sep 20, 2015 00:55
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Wanamingo posted:Same here. At 30 cents each, I'd be a fool NOT to buy them Price is already jumping back into the 40c range. Wish I had been online when No fell to 20-some cents, missed out on a deal.
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Sep 21, 2015 16:45
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:You shouldn't feel bad about getting out early (unless you lost money by doing so). Don't fall into the trap of blindly chasing the max return; it's probably the easiest way to get burned. Yep. You can always hold a couple shares to see if you can push your luck, but buying and selling on the swing is definitely the way to go.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:19
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fronz posted:If they ever get rid of the poll from two months ago, that is. The folks running RCP probably wonder why there are so many eager applicants to work as an unpaid intern for the site.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:32
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Just got Berned by the new Fox poll. RCP added a new poll and didn't immediately remove an old one. Then five minutes later it did remove the old one. Fortunately I was able to sell some shares in the ensuing chaos.
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Sep 24, 2015 00:23
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fronz posted:Oh my loving god. Hahahaha.
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Sep 24, 2015 15:31
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Abel Wingnut posted:only suckers vote on polls The poll markets exist to redistribute money from people who make casual bets to the folks refreshing every five minutes.
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Sep 24, 2015 16:23
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Necc0 posted:Trump still has a week to recover only one point so I'm kind of surprised the market reacted as heavily as it did Now is a great time to buy in!
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Sep 24, 2015 16:40
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Gyges posted:So apparently there's money still to be squeezed out of Scott Walker quitting. People seem to be randomly clicking on the market and buying yes shares on the other candidates. Perhaps they think it's the new who will drop out, but now Pataki Nos are selling for almost 90 cents. Speaking of which, why haven't they settled that market yet?
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Sep 25, 2015 03:59
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Abel Wingnut posted:why would boehner leaving avoid the shutdown? He has nothing to lose by cutting a deal with the Democrats now.
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Sep 25, 2015 16:35
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Prime Sinister posted:Well, that was pretty fun. Had my first 'big' win on this site with the NO on a shutdown. I was on the bus checking my phone and saw that my balance was way higher than expected. Managed to dump off my shares in the low-mid 90's. Good timing, too, because last I saw it's dipped into the 80's again. It's up to like 94 now.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:39
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A Time To Chill posted:Oh cool I was asleep when the bottom dropped out of the shutdown market. RIP 80 bucks Yep, you can make $10 dozens of times but when you lose a big bet it really brings things back down to earth. I still made money on that yes bet, though
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Sep 26, 2015 07:03
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Wanamingo posted:Just out of curiosity, were you caught with your pants down while trading on the market swings or did you think that there was actually going to be a shutdown? I was thinking no as the probable outcome all along but bought into yes a few times when no peaked early on. Never held long enough to get caught, but could easily have eaten it at the end (thought there would be more of a yes spike and got off even on my last buy).
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Sep 26, 2015 08:23
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Gyges posted:The only polls that probably won't gently caress you over are the monthly polls and the weekly Obama one where you can bet across multiple tranches. Still, it's always best to be out of the market at least 1 day before they end. You're not just betting on what the polls are but which polls RCP decides to use. They'll all gently caress you over, really. Much safer to avoid them entirely. It's hard to, though, because there are few other short-term options.
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Sep 28, 2015 05:43
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I think this whole thing is just to cover up all the Yes inflation and make it more difficult for people to discredit the accuracy of their markets. I don't quite understand what they intend but it sounds "artificial" at this point.
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Sep 30, 2015 03:03
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Gyges posted:Looking at the trend and trying to read the tea leaves of the comments, it looks like no is probably going to slowly sink back to around where it was at the beginning of the day. Some Yes people probably tried to liquidate shares as soon as it came out Biden wasn't going to be in the debate. Turns out they didn't need to panic since people are just pushing the price back up to where it was. God I hope you're right. I missed out on the 40c range waiting on the site to pay out on my last bet and I really don't want to have to buy at 55c or whatever.
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Oct 2, 2015 02:18
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Got a big pile of Biden No at 43, probably sticking with it now.
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Oct 4, 2015 01:39
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Aliquid posted:Biden NO is getting cheap, can't say I'm not nervous though The Yes people on there are insane. No for 39 cents or whatever is a ridiculous deal at this point.
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Oct 5, 2015 17:24
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Stereotype posted:I have standing orders on a bunch of Jeb NOs but they all have stupidly low volume. A close reading on the NK nuke market indicates that they would have to detonate a "thermonuclear" weapon, ie, a fusion device. That is not going to happen.
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Oct 5, 2015 21:17
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User Error posted:I really hope you guys are not all part of a conspiracy to scam me out of my money with Biden No. Conservatives have convinced themselves that Hillary is unelectable. From their perspective, Biden has a clear shot on the White House. So they bet along those we lines. Everyone more or less agrees that Biden will run if Clinton is toast, but these people just can't help but believe that Clinton has already flamed out.
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Oct 6, 2015 18:08
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I still hope they push Yes up to 67c in the next few days. I feel like we're maybe 2 or 3 unsourced news pieces away.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:00
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Gosh, if there was only a way that Biden could let us all know that he wasn't going to run? People have been predicting that he'll declare "next week" since July. Meanwhile, Hillary is eating his breakfast in terms of donations and endorsements. If he decided he wanted to run awhile back, he's going about it the wrong way. His potential candidacy grows weaker every day he doesn't declare. The media want a horserace. The Republicans want someone to bloody Hillary. Some of his boosters also want him to get in on it, probably for their own selfish reasons. The real questions are 1) what does the party want of Biden and 2) what does Biden want. It's impossible to guess at #2, but #1 is pretty clear: the insiders want to protect Hillary. Biden is a party man and while no one can force him to do anything, the Party's influence on the race is difficult to underestimate. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 21:37 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 21:33
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Jewel Repetition posted:The reason he's leaving it uncertain is he'll only run if it looks like Hillary's imploding or will implode. Yeah. There really is no other explanation unless you think Biden is a fool. The Party wants a backup plan without weakening Hillary.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:38
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:C'mon man, you can't really believe this. By this logic, Elizabeth Warren should not have announced that she wasn't running. She could have teased and teased a run and made Hillary look like a strong and capable candidate! The media is absolutely making it into a horserace. They're desperate for a horserace. Every time Biden takes a poo poo they have five anonymous sources mentioning how this is a sign that he's super serious for real this time. Biden hasn't said no because it would used against him should he actually enter. He's clearly waiting on some sort of triggering event, and that seems to be a Hillary breakdown of some sort. Bottom line is that he could run, and is clearly keeping the option open, but the calculus seems increasingly disfavorable.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:54
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Geez, that isn't much at all. Are total shares in the each market listed somewhere or are you doing some statistical jiu jitsu to figure this out? Yeah the total is listed under "data" for each market, and the more popular ones tend to have pretty huge floats. The Biden Runs market has 100,000 shares outstanding, for example.
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Oct 7, 2015 05:03
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JohnnyPalace posted:Seeing this made me want to do some math. As it stands now, someone could bid Bloomberg up to 40c and into first place overall by spending $176. So if someone with money to burn (or a campaign) really wanted to point to PredictIt to show a candidate was legitimate, it would be fairly cheap to do so. The price would immediately drop like a rock after that initially buy, though.
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Oct 7, 2015 22:00
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:With how relatively easy it is to day trade in this game, who are the suckers losing money and still playing? I lost some. Learn from my mistakes and avoid the stupid poll markets.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:02
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Those "best impact" markets are even worse than the regular polling markets. Speaking time is a good one, though. Frontrunner almost always gets the most time.
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Oct 9, 2015 03:38
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Stereotype posted:To be fair, it was entirely about his dead wife and children I think the biggest takeaway is that the Draft Biden folks really are acting independently and really are desperate to get him into the race. It's not just some sort of 11th dimensional chess game to build up hype secretly managed by Biden himself.
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Oct 9, 2015 03:48
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EngineerSean posted:Seems like Bernie's a good bet on YES there, he hasn't been debate prepping and I think there's definitely more than a 1 in 4 chance that he loses to Lifelong Career Politician Hillary He could bomb the debate and still get a better "bump" due to the way it's measured. Have fun refreshing poll results at 8am to cover your rear end, I definitely did. No, I'm not bitter at all.
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Oct 10, 2015 06:30
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Necc0 posted:We haven't made it yet. Once filing deadlines come up people will crack. Until then they will buy any and every excuse. Things are looking thin down to 38c on No, might be time to pick up some more. 
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Oct 13, 2015 03:56
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:But...what if he runs? Yeah, there is that whole thing--though he would be pretty crazy to choose to run now when he could have gotten in months ago. Assuming Hillary doesn't call Sanders a crazy old kike at the debate, she's still looking too strong for Biden to topple, and he knows it.
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Oct 13, 2015 04:22
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JosefStalinator posted:Even though all logic and reason tells me that Biden won't run (and I have plenty of cash in it that he won't), the thing keeping me from putting more in is just the sheer belief of the other people/media that he will. I will feel quite the fool if they, somehow, turn out right. Pretty much in the same boat, except: 
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Oct 13, 2015 05:28
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Necc0 posted:Those shares aren't destroyed though, they're just passed off to someone else. Yep, you can tell by looking at how the available sell/buy offers are perfectly mirrored. Every offer to sell No is also an offer to buy Yes for the other side.
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Oct 13, 2015 16:31
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Necc0 posted:That doesn't destroy both shares though, just transforms Yes -> No or vice versa. Well if you offer to sell No at 35c someone could either buy No at 35c or sell Yes at 65c to complete the transaction. Otherwise an offer to sell a share could only be completed by someone picking up a share of the same type. Otherwise, selling No/buying Yes wouldn't be perfect mirrors on the price table because an offer to sell a No would not create an opportunity for Yes.
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Oct 13, 2015 16:58
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Necc0 posted:I'm considering assigning each of my friends a candidate to time with their phone and putting in a bet about half way in if anyone is clearly ahead Last time they locked the length of speaking one right as the debate started.
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Oct 13, 2015 22:34
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Even at 60c Biden No sounds like a good deal. Wish I had deposited more when it was flipping around at 45c.
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Oct 14, 2015 19:38
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EngineerSean posted:I actually sold my entire Biden NO stake for between 50 and 60, I might buy again in the future though. That's a reasonable move, though waiting another 24 hrs or so would probably have made you a good chunk of change more.
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Oct 14, 2015 19:46
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Combed Thunderclap posted:EDIT: ^ It's OK! I have the opposite problem, I play pretty conservative and always want to hang on to my shares at all costs. Case in point: Either Biden or the media will need to play him up and build some drama for the big dinner event (name is slipping my mind). Otherwise, all the big Yes boosters are melting down and lots of people look to be cutting losses, which is equivalent to a big No buy order. Solid wall of such orders down to 50c now.
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Oct 14, 2015 19:53
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