Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Misc
Sep 19, 2008

Biden Running No shares are still relatively cheap in spite of his Late Show interview, currently hanging around 57 cents. I bought in for much cheaper, but there's still money to be made.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

Jewel Repetition posted:

If Hillary's campaign deteriorates enough for Biden to step in, I think Bernie has a good chance. That's not a fringe view, even Nate Silver said it.

This is being awfully generous with 538's comments about Bernie. Nate said in a single post on his site, which was a transcription from a Slack chat, that if those conditions are met, as unlikely as they are, then Bernie has a non-zero chance of getting the nom. More often repeated on the site thus far is the notion that if Hillary's campaign somehow completely crumbles then the party is far more likely to nominate a different establishment candidate than to let an outsider wrangle away control of the party.

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

First time this election cycle I get to smugly rub "I'm right you're wrong" in peoples' faces. My boss echoed the press hype for months. Today? "I'm not that good at figuring these types of things out, man."

Maybe I should take my earnings from bank in $1s and follow him around the office tossing them in the air.

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

Trump polls much worse in Iowa and New Hampshire than he does nationally, and I'm starting to really doubt his ability to actually turn many of his poll supporters into likely voters. I think there's decent odds in putting some money down on TRUMP.ANYPRIMARY16.NO (currently ~.25) and pulling your money out after bad showings in Iowa and NH.

I do admit he has a better chance in SC than the other two states that precede it, but I wouldn't discount low results robbing him of the hype he's built up.

EDIT: On the other hand, didn't Newt loving Gingrich win SC the last go-around?

Misc has issued a correction as of 23:32 on Jan 4, 2016

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO trading at 76¢ seems like quick easy money if he doesn't win in Iowa.

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

Jewel Repetition posted:

If you think he's going to lose Iowa, you can actually make more money off of CRUZ.IACAUCUS16.GOP at 62¢. I mean, unless you think someone else would take it.

More money? Sure, but TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO is safer money that still offers payout in the event of a NH loss, which is also possible.

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

Vox Nihili posted:

44c sounds about right unless you think the GOP is actually collapsing.

Yeah, that figure is all dependent on who gets the nom on the GOP side. An establishment candidate will make the general a toss-up. Any fringe candidates of the moment make that a much more lucrative market, but we ought to know that those shares will not stay .44 if Cruz/Trump starts making serious progress towards the nom.

I guess if you're confident the GOP is going to poo poo the bed, you could possibly buy at .44 and flip after SC or something, but that money is too long term for me either way.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Misc
Sep 19, 2008

railroad terror posted:

Easy money to be made if Bernie cruises to a double digit NH win --- his 25c to win the nomination will inevitably have a short spike.

Be careful with that kind of assumption!

Necc0 posted:

Always remember that on this site you're up against people playing the same game as you are, not the general public at large. It may seem like the latter a lot, but it's not.

  • Locked thread