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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
I'm getting a little uneasy on my RUBIO.RNOM yes shares because of all the new developments about how he has basically quit the senate in all but name only. I'll see if this stuff sticks but I wouldn't be surprised if somebody uses it against him once his numbers goes up.

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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

hope you didnt sell

nope, rubio not only made my dreams come true but also streamrolled jeb! in the process which boosted other shares I was holding :getin:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
thank god i didn't know enough on the subject to bet any money on this

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
I just realized I'm losing a ton on my CNBCDEBATE.WINNER rubio shares becuase they tanked and everybody thinks Carson is going to win. That's such bullshit, the man didn't sound awake the whole time and said nothing substantial other than distancing himself from a quack pills company. Rubio actually wrecked Jeb! and probably got the billionaire donor afterwards due to a strong performance.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Milk Malk posted:

Did you read the rules?

I did, and I swear Carson kept his tie/not-tie with Trump at the mid-20% while Rubio jumped up. Granted I wasn't following the poll they base their decision from, but I thought it would be a general improvement :smith:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
The only thing I've invested anything into recently was Julian Castro VP yes. Everything else is tied up in long-term shares :ohdear:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Threw a solid $50 at Bernie Iowa NO. This is basically double what I had in every other market combined.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Aliquid posted:

His supporters are hyping a come-from-behind ~19% four-way finish with him squeaking it out. Remember who his supporters are.

Predictit now accepts gold deposits.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Good night yesterday, my only regret is that I bought into the Carson Dropout train and didn't sell when I could. It was only a dollar, though.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

railroad terror posted:

Well, I lost big with Trump, but I'm getting back on the train. There was so much fluctuation last night, hope some people made out big. What's everyone looking at now for some potential rebound stocks with the market settling a bit before NH? I'm considering the potentially disastrous strategy of going back in on Trump again depending on what the next 1-2 polls look like. He may have underperformed in a caucus state with little organization, but if he polls show him way outside the margin of error in a primary state like NH, then I think it's a good bet.

Trump certainly is a better buy in NH. No caucuses means that a disadvantage in voter GOTY structure is less important.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

District Selectman posted:

What I think I learned from Iowa:

1. Trump has the polling but his organization is amateur and it failed in Iowa. You can say, well, maybe Trump didn't do a bad job, maybe Cruz just did an exceptional job. Maybe. But they seem to have been caught flat footed. It's a big job to set this stuff up. Trump may have underestimated that. How unprepared is he for the remaining states?

2. People are turning out to vote against Trump. Watch out for second choices in NH. Cruz, Rubio, Kasich seem to be popular second choices based on the polling I've seen. Somehow Rubio swung people in Iowa in the last week, although I'm not quite sure how.

I can see a lot more paths to a NH loss now for Trump.

For NH at least he's set, IMO. As I said before, it's a more straightforward game in NH compared to IA. You had a combination of factors, such as the evangelical ground game that was mentioned, alongside actual campaign apparatuses that Trump simply didn't have. The addition of a skipped debate also probably pushed it away from Trump. In IH, he has the ridiculous polling advantage and the advantage of a simple primary state. The rest of the states, I don't know. He's lost a lot of luster from IA, and now you have Rubio having his upswing exactly when he wanted it.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
despite of what i've said, i'm too nervous to put all my clinton iowa yes winnings into trump nh yes. :ohdear:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Peachstapler posted:

Huckabee beat him to the punch two days ago so according to the rules as long as Huckabee doesn't reactivate his campaign it won't resolve in a Paul YES for RPREZ.DROPOUT6. Although the news is actually impacting the price...

Yeah, nobody is reading the rules. Buy NO whenever the price reaches whatever threshold you want, I got it at 90 and that's an easy 10 cents on the dollar.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Rand is now at 99 :stare:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Abel Wingnut posted:

so he's definitely dropping? rand yes?

he's dropping out but the rules for this market only allow for the first person to drop out, aka huckabee

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler


I wish I had more money :negative:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Santorum is dropping out according to CNN, going to stalk his DROPOUT6 NO and see if any idiots take the bait again. Probably not as many because they've put up a disclaimer, but we will see.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
why the gently caress are people reading the comments anyway, it's half half-assed commentary and half trolling.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

a cop posted:

Wow, hillary DNOM down to 70 cents.

:eyepop: this is a good long term buy

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
I'm still so loving iffy on Trump NH. The polling bump is definitely higher than anything he'll get in actual voting, but I'm so convinced that his lack of ground structure means that people will be lazy fucks, just like in Iowa.

But then again, that's such a large polling gap between him and runner up. Ugh.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Rubio.exe narrowly missed that bullet

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
The most valuable thing in my possession: Kaisch NH runner up at 40 :unsmith:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
CARRRRRRRLYYYYYYY

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

a cop posted:

I'm sorry to anyone who died :ohdear:

rip my cash

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Will Rubio repeat himself during the debate? .99 YES

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Went all in on Sanders NV.CAUCUS No, because it was cheaper. It worked for Iowa, and it'll work here :ohdear:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
feeling good, made a ton of money

now time to become overconfident and lose it all again

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
god loving damnit

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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Narciss posted:

gently caress it, I put about $150 (on each state) for Bernie to win every Super Tuesday state. I'll be in a little bit of a spot with rent & food if he loses, but I think we can really pull this through after that SC loss energized people to start phonebanking/donating more. God knows I've spent more money than I should have donating to Bernie, I think this time I'll try and profit off of it. :banjo:

:stare: but I applaud you for going all-in :getin:

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