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They need her there so they don't have a stage full of men, at least one of whom cannot stop saying horribly sexist things.
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Sep 2, 2015 00:49
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 05:29 |
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Nothing right now looks like a good bet even though I dropped $20 into this thing. I want to bet on, like, "approval of senate above %15.5" because its going for like 20-70 right now and is at 15.3. I guess I don't understand what polls they can use though and which ones come out next and which way they trend.
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Sep 2, 2015 04:55
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Wanamingo posted:Thanks to whoever said the Iran veto thing was a safe bet, I made $60 on that today. Its weird, because "Will Congress reject Iran deal" is at 98c for NO, but "Will Obama veto congressional disapproval" is only at 78c for NO. The second one cannot be a yes without the first one being a yes. edit: nevermind, the first one has to be a veto override. Stereotype has issued a correction as of 08:58 on Sep 2, 2015 |
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Sep 2, 2015 08:40
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There's a good chance that Christie won't be in the next CNN debate, which has NOs trading at only 20c. He is currently ranked 10, tied with Paul, and is 11th according to the latest CNN poll. They are only letting 10 people in.
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Sep 3, 2015 23:06
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Why did they add a market about Al Gore becoming a candidate? Is that something anyone has talked about ever?
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Sep 5, 2015 01:04
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Here's a link to the actual rules http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-rules-september-16/index.html They are only letting in 10 people, but they expanded their allowable polls to be included in the average. If Christie and Paul are tied for 10th (they are) then PAUL gets in because he was in the lead for the previous polling period. Christie still might get bumped. Disclaimer: I have like a dollar riding on Christie not being in the debate.
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Sep 5, 2015 01:31
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Vox Nihili posted:You might want to try reading those again. I suggest focusing on Section 7a, which clearly allows additional candidates beyond the top 10 from Section 7. If there is one more poll before the 10th, Fiorina gets a 5 or above, and Christie gets a 3 or below, then she becomes 10th for the July 16th to September 10th average, knocking Christie to 11th and out of the section 7a qualifications. He is already not in the top 10 in the August 7th to September 10th average, and if he polls similarly to what he is now, he won't be. (7b might be an average or might be ANY poll in that period, it isn't really clear), I think it was a risk worthy of buying some 10c stock. Plus it would be extra hilarious to see him pouting on the B-team stage if I also won money on it.
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Sep 5, 2015 03:32
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Vox Nihili posted:Nope, it's no where near one poll of 5 or above vs. one poll of 3 or below to knock Christie out of the Section 7 qualification. I don't know if you're including polls that CNN isn't using, looking at the RCP numbers, or what, but the actual numbers are no where near that. For example, the most useful poll for pushing down Christie, the PPP poll with him at 2% and Fiorina at 8%, is not included in the CNN average. Ah thats where my problem is, I didn't exclude PPP and Rasmussen. Excluding those, Fiorina needs a 12(!) with Christie getting a 2, or an 11 if he gets a 1. Thats way less likely. quote:He was never going to make it in under the August to Sept. polling average, which was added specifically to add Fiorina as an 11th candidate. There is no Section 7b, so I don't know what you're referring to there. quote:I think you'll find plenty of 10c No shares available if you want to make that bet. Barring any further CNN changes, it looks like a long shot. Already got 10 for 10c, but oh well, my dollar probably isn't going to turn into 10 dollars.
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Sep 5, 2015 04:08
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, this looks like a pretty good deal: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?contractId=1166 Yeah that one was great all last week, hovering around 50c
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Sep 8, 2015 20:28
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I really doubt they will, but then again the Republican Party is a field of clowns.
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Sep 10, 2015 22:32
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Its sort of funny that they have a new "Who will drop out first" bet with Jindal, the winner of the last one, still in it.
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Sep 17, 2015 20:15
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Necc0 posted:We're coming up on All Things Considered right now if anyone is interested in hearing NPR's take. I was interviewed by their reporter last night during the debate I wish instead of NPR doing the story it was Fox News. Here's the link I think (it wont be avaliable for another two hours) http://www.npr.org/2015/09/17/441222483/predictit-lets-investors-buy-and-sell-political-candidate-stock I'm excited to hear it 
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Sep 17, 2015 22:06
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I hope Biden isn't running because I just bought more Biden Is Not Running stock.
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Sep 18, 2015 00:33
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also Necc0 you sound like a goon hahaha
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Sep 18, 2015 00:47
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I love how much of an effect that had on the price. I'm still going off his interview on Colbert where he really didn't look interested in running.
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Sep 18, 2015 04:44
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pathetic little tramp posted:House just voted to defund Planned Parenthood, I'm hoping we've got some chicken littles in the shutdown yes camp who don't see it as just political gamesmanship and bought a quick 25 shares at 35 to see if I can turn them into 50. I'm in on Yes Shutdown too, but I'm waiting until next week when it's all over the news that they haven't passed a continuing resolution yet, because they are going to string this out till the last minute (why wouldn't they?)
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Sep 19, 2015 00:29
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They added a "biggest movers" category. I want to dumb my "Bush No Nomination" stocks because I need some liquidity and people might never actually believe he isn't going to win.
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Sep 21, 2015 20:39
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The house is and always has been where the shutdown is a problem this time. Boehner doesn't have the republican votes to pass a continuing resolution and a lot of people want to oust him from the leadership position, which partnering with Democrats to fund abortions might do.
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Sep 21, 2015 22:29
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People in the comments section on PredictIt have decided that Joe Biden is already running because of these two things at the FEC: http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/801/201508249000928801/201508249000928801.pdf http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?candidateCommitteeId=P60012465&tabIndex=1
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Sep 22, 2015 03:33
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Wanamingo posted:https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1223/Will-congressional-job-approval-be-at-least-15-on-September-25 This was a good bet and I won a dollar so thank you
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Sep 23, 2015 04:28
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Wanamingo posted:What? It's set to close a week after a candidate suspends their campaign. Check the rules. I think he was talking about the R nomination market, which they probably wont resolve for NO Walker until the end
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Sep 25, 2015 07:59
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Yeah I am back at even now  The Obama approval also had a crazy huge swing as RCP decided to drop off two polls at once.
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Sep 25, 2015 21:37
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So who is going to be the next majority leader?
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Sep 25, 2015 22:16
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lol I just made 10 dollars flipping stocks on that brand new market (it's going to be either Scalise or Rodgers probably, they're in line, it just matters if they want a woman or not at the #2 spot)
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Sep 25, 2015 22:26
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Betting on polls is stupid. The "congressional approval" one didn't update for the entire run of the last market.
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Sep 26, 2015 22:34
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I have no idea what this change means. This poo poo was already complicated.
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Sep 30, 2015 11:03
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Biden is volatile enough to make some money, because he isn't going to run so just always buy NO for low and sell it higher. I want to bet on the Majority Leader market though, because I have no idea who is going to win and neither does anyone else.
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Oct 2, 2015 03:35
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I'm pretty sure YES Biden just jumped up 5 cents because someone posted this video lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ODioax-0J8
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Oct 2, 2015 21:18
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Vox Nihili posted:Got a big pile of Biden No at 43, probably sticking with it now. I was playing with the volatility on Friday and have a bunch of 51c NOs Now they look dumb.
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Oct 4, 2015 10:33
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I have standing orders on a bunch of Jeb NOs but they all have stupidly low volume. I also own "North Korea will detonate a nuke YES" so now I have this perverse desire for them to do that in 5 days.
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Oct 5, 2015 21:14
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Vox Nihili posted:A close reading on the NK nuke market indicates that they would have to detonate a "thermonuclear" weapon, ie, a fusion device. That is not going to happen. Yeah I saw that. I take it that if they have a fission nuclear test before January 1st Predictit will resolve to YES anyway though and they are just horrible at correctly specifying rules.
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Oct 5, 2015 21:29
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Can someone explain this better than them? I don't understand this.
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Oct 6, 2015 06:11
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evilweasel posted:If I bet every single candidate (19 I think) for the Republican nomination will not win it, I am guaranteed to lose one, and only one, of those bets (and when I looked at the market, it would pay me $1.70 to make that bet, letting you pocket $0.70). PredictIt needs to hold $1 from me to be sure that I will pay up. However, they're holding $1 for each candidate, requiring a total of $19 locked up for a bet that can only lose $1. That's a good explanation!! Thanks Now I understand.
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Oct 6, 2015 19:00
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It would be strange if he declared a run next week and then sat out of a debate a few days later. The rumor is that HE wants to run, but his family doesn't want him to.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:23
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Necc0 posted:https://www.predictit.org/Contract/449/Will-Michael-Bloomberg-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election#data1 I'll buy NOs on that for 90c yes please.
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Oct 7, 2015 01:51
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The guy who bought Bloomberg from 1c (tied for last) to 10c (7th, better than Fiorina) spent $100.
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Oct 7, 2015 04:07
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I dropped $20 into this game and so far I have $36 so I'm pretty happy with that! I plan on building it up until I lose it all of course.
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Oct 7, 2015 21:53
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I enjoyed losing that money so much I haven't really played on the site since. I made $20 on the crazy volatility of the House Majority leader one which will resolve soon. The Nobel Peace prize one is also a total gamble because who knows who those crazy Swedes will pick.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:49
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lol I'm glad I got out of that nonsense. I'm excited to lose 4 dollars tomorrow when the Pope doesn't get the peace prize though!
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Oct 8, 2015 19:37
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 05:29 |
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There's a bunch of new Democratic Debate markets that opened and I couldn't talk to anyone about them! They all have Biden as a participant (as well as one about whether he will participate).
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Oct 9, 2015 03:30
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