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Buy up those Bush nos.
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Aug 22, 2015 21:16
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I hate to break it to you all, but he's gonna run. He hasn't done a single thing that would indicate he wasn't. Hasn't he also not done a single thing to indicate he is?
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Aug 27, 2015 08:52
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If you buy only correct choice shares are you guaranteed to make some amount of money?
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Aug 27, 2015 22:16
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Edit: Posted in the wrong thread somehow.
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Aug 27, 2015 22:18
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Necc0 posted:If God intervenes in the election and Bobby Jindal or somebody manages to win I just make an extra buck in gross profit per batch so yeah it'd be a good thing. Very very unlikely though so my math assumes at least one of them fail. I don't mean you specifically, I mean, if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it?
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Aug 27, 2015 22:21
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pathetic little tramp posted:Whenever I see a YouTube comment these days along the lines of "HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL" I like to reply that they can make mad money on that bet. Do people with correct shares get more money if a lot of people buy wrong shares?
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Aug 28, 2015 20:43
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MisterJed posted:I'm ready to bet big on trump to win the nomination. He's at $0.28 and all the other republicans are collapsing. Don't worry, there are still plenty of idiots if Rubio is in the top two most predicted.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:14
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Concerned Citizen posted:The SuperPAC stuff is public record. JobsthatareLEFT, a Dem staff job board, had them up (under the header "National Presidential Political Organization" or something to that effect, but the from line was connected with a Draft Biden employee). The finance stuff I heard about a week ago from a Dem staffer not connected with the Biden people. Their friend was approached about it. I've also heard from another source in Dem politics as well that folks have been approached about joining Biden staff. Again, just rumors. Nothing I can personally attest to, but I personally place credence in it. That's insider trading.
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Sep 8, 2015 02:57
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If you're sure Biden won't run, the best time to buy no would probably be right before his Colbert appearance when the bubble will burst.
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Sep 10, 2015 20:00
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I told you guys to buy short before the taping. Now Biden run's dropped 11 cents.
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Sep 11, 2015 00:36
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Aliquid posted:Okay, Bernie winning Iowa: I'm sitting at $.71 NO and I can currently sell at $.40. I should definitely sit on this, right? Hillary's bound for a rebound, conventional wisdom says. You probably shouldn't listen to me since I'm a Sanderista, but yes, it's only going to get worse.
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Sep 15, 2015 08:55
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pathetic little tramp posted:Which republican will drop out next? Why are the buy yes costs so high on all of them?
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Sep 16, 2015 22:17
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Gyges posted:Predictit needs to get some major press so that the place is swamped with the average voter types come November next year. It's much harder to make money off the polling when a sizable portion of the population isn't insisting the polls are skewed. I like how smart it is about the predictions with a smaller, more objective userbase, but I guess I'll always have predictwise.
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Sep 17, 2015 00:17
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Gyges posted:I kind of hope they keep having these and he keeps technically dropping out first every time. Lol.
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Sep 18, 2015 05:07
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Yoshifan823 posted:Watch his interview with Colbert and tell me that Biden is a man who thinks he can handle a year-plus long campaign. He wants to be president, but right now, he doesn't want to run for president. And I don't blame him. It's too bad, the "my dead gay son told me he wanted me to be president" narrative will go to waste.
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Sep 20, 2015 07:51
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Now's the time to buy up Biden Nos by the way. Even if you're wrong, it means Bernie will probably be our next president and you'll get money from his good economic policies. Win/win.
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Sep 20, 2015 07:54
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I can't believe how much the Republican field has flattened in the past week.
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Sep 20, 2015 20:49
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:You really have been in the echo chamber too long if you think bernie is "probably" going to be the next president. If Hillary's campaign deteriorates enough for Biden to step in, I think Bernie has a good chance. That's not a fringe view, even Nate Silver said it.
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Sep 20, 2015 22:10
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Why did Rubio nom shares rocket between the 15th and 20th?
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Sep 28, 2015 23:43
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I don't remember why I'm so sure Biden won't run, but I'm sticking to it.
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Oct 2, 2015 09:20
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Crop of new rumors about Biden announcing today, so yes is up and no is down.
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Oct 5, 2015 19:08
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The reason he's leaving it uncertain is he'll only run if it looks like Hillary's imploding or will implode.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:37
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I'd like to debate with you about Biden's run chances but that just seems cruel since I don't have any money on it.
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Oct 9, 2015 06:06
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District Selectman posted:Seems like it's free money to take NO on the biggest loser of the debate, if you bet Chaffee, O Malley or Webb. They're barely above 0%, they have no room to fall. Like, Clinton or Sanders could decrease due to polling error and it's worse than their maximum fall. Do they define "biggest loser" in terms of absolute polling losses?
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Oct 9, 2015 22:53
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EngineerSean posted:Seems like Bernie's a good bet on YES there, he hasn't been debate prepping and I think there's definitely more than a 1 in 4 chance that he loses to Lifelong Career Politician Hillary The caveat is that he still has low name recognition so even if he does bad it could be cancelled out by more people finding out about him.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:39
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:LOL CNN is touting and showing pix that it has a 6th podium on hand just in case Biden wants to waltz in, declare his candidacy, and show up to debate at 5:59:59 tomorrow in Las Vegas. Lol.
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Oct 13, 2015 01:48
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What just happened here? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1297/Will-Bernie-Sanders-see-the-worst-polling-impact-from-CNN#data1 (check out the 24 hour timescale)
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Oct 13, 2015 20:38
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From the comments it sounds like there's some fuckery with how the polls are measured, so they're going to be using ones from before the debate that already went down.
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Oct 13, 2015 20:48
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It's good to see the Biden bubble finally burst because I have a big bag of I-told-you-sos I've been saving for it.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:09
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Oh poo poo, buy Biden Nos as fast as possible right now.
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Oct 15, 2015 23:53
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Lol I just saw the old Biden run featured comment about how it doesn't count if someone else with the same name runs for president.
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Oct 15, 2015 23:57
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pathetic little tramp posted:I just hope when he officially announces no, I'm quick enough to cancel all of my sell orders (staggered at 66, 75, and 90) and put them up at 97. Doesn't predictit itself "buy" your orders for a dollar when that happens?
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Oct 16, 2015 00:28
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Why would you sell a winning prediction for 0.97 at the last second instead of just waiting for the $1 payout?
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Oct 16, 2015 23:10
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The Biden market has inflated all the way back up to its pre-debate bubble. Get those Nos while they're hot.
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Oct 18, 2015 21:20
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nachos posted:Biden no is back around .50 now that we've gotten through another weekend .45 currently, was .40 when I posted earlier. Just make sure you get them before that Democratic dinner, because after that it's straight downhill. An especially daring gambler would wait until there's some kind of false hope right before the dinner that would cause a surge, like Biden's podium for the CNN debate.
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Oct 18, 2015 22:50
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Biden at 70/30 and I still don't believe it.
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Oct 19, 2015 17:06
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If Biden runs I'll never be able to make political predictions again, but if he doesn't I'll become incredibly powerful.
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Oct 19, 2015 18:14
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Gyges posted:Really wish I didn't have a bunch of shares over 50 that I didn't get sold off yet. That's way more sub 30 shares I could have bought. Hoping the market bounces up high enough after Biden doesn't announce in the next day or so to get rid of them and buy up on the next low. If you have the money available I'd buy now and wait for the cashout from all of them. It's pretty iffy whether the market will deflate AND reinflate again after this. I think it's the last hurrah.
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Oct 20, 2015 04:30
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Gyges posted:Really wish I didn't have a bunch of shares over 50 that I didn't get sold off yet. That's way more sub 30 shares I could have bought. Hoping the market bounces up high enough after Biden doesn't announce in the next day or so to get rid of them and buy up on the next low. Okay, well, I still wouldn't sell until it's at 97.
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Oct 20, 2015 04:35
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| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 08:44 |
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To be clear: my insistence that Biden won't run isn't wishful thinking, because I actually want him to.
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Oct 20, 2015 07:36
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