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For bets that far out though, what you are actually betting on is the site being functional long enough for you to cash out.
BougieBitch has issued a correction as of 15:45 on Aug 21, 2015 |
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Aug 21, 2015 15:31
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 20:55 |
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Abel Wingnut posted:oh, is r-370 the bet about the Rs taking the WH, senate, and house? yea, a no there seems pretty drat safe. No, he's talking about margin of victory for the presidential election. 370 or more EV (Which is absurdly unlikely because just California, New York, etc. add up to more than enough to make it virtually impossible). (The bet you are talking about is actually kind of cruddy, you are better off betting on presidential outcomes, because Dems aren't getting the senate without getting the presidency and the return on one bet is better than the other.)
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Aug 21, 2015 16:00
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Since we brought it up, here's what the map looks like Dems only win states they had 55% or more of the vote for in the last election: http://www.270towin.com/maps/5PpWL
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Aug 21, 2015 16:10
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Abel Wingnut posted:hmm, i'm not even seeing the r-370 bet. and yea, agreed you're way better off betting on the WH outcome given the prices. https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1322#data1 The actual issue with this one is that there are barely any shares for sale.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:11
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https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1532#sthash.DwDYK14M.dpbs This is probably my favorite free money one, since it will probably close sooner than the rest of the primary stuff.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:15
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The problem with both markets is that the buy no and sell no are so far apart that the cost of getting in is too high. I grabbed the last handful of discount no shares, but that's it.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:23
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https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1274#data1 I love this site. Comments are just what you'd think
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Aug 21, 2015 18:17
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Tomato Burger posted:Just joined PredictIt today based on this thread! I was quite surprised to find a North Korea nuclear test market. The site's not really been around long enough to say. It'll be interesting to see if a bunch of new markets open in January with deadlines in December. For the time being, it's definitely at least partially convenience, and there are at least some markets (especially related to elections) that are going to have different deadlines.
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Oct 5, 2015 10:01
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Flavahbeast posted:How is current gain/loss calculated, is it based on what I would get if I liquidated every share for the current ask price or is it based on the average value of each share? It's not even liquidation, it's based on the most recent trade price, buying or selling. Basically, just ignore it.
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Feb 13, 2016 05:13
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 20:55 |
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What's everyone feeling on Kansas and Nebraska shares for Hillary? They dropped pretty far. What's the polling situation?
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Mar 2, 2016 16:50
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