Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
CNN is helping all the Biden no bros make a lot of money. Some site called pivit has his chances of running at loving 86%.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Between McCarthy no and now Paul Ryan no this house speaker race has been pretty profitable

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

A Time To Chill posted:

I hope the BIDENRUN market stops its foray into rationality. I wanna pick up a few more shares of NO at sub 40c levels :(

quote:

Exactly. Why would it be his son's dying wish to urge him to run for president unless that was something they had already talked about before (i.e. his desire to run for president)? Of course he's still healing, but as he becomes stronger with each passing day I have to believe he's increasingly more inclined to run. Actually, he's always been inclined to run. Never ruled it out, even as early as a couple years ago. He's run twice before, this is something he wants, and now is his last and best chance to do it. If he loses then he loses, so what. At least he tried.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
There is no surer bet than the GOP house loving themselves up at every opportunity. Ryan won't run unless he has full support and there is no chance the freedom caucus goes along with that. Right wing media is already against him and getting more vocal about his amnesty support.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
The ultra right is perfectly logical when you consider they are incentivized to create as much obstruction as possible

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Vox Nihili posted:

Either Biden or the media will need to play him up and build some drama for the big dinner event (name is slipping my mind). Otherwise, all the big Yes boosters are melting down and lots of people look to be cutting losses, which is equivalent to a big No buy order. Solid wall of such orders down to 50c now.

There's also the benghazi hearing on the 22nd or 23rd?

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Biden no is now at 70 cents. At this point it might be worth picking up some tanking yes shares cheap for the inevitable bump when Hillary testifies to congress about Benghazi.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
If anyone wants cheap NO on Biden they are at 50c right now because a new article came out saying bidens family supports a run

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
The reason no shares are so cheap:

quote:

(CNN)Vice President Joe Biden has personally made a series of calls this week to Democratic strategists from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, asking a final round of detailed questions about how -- not whether -- to launch a 2016 presidential campaign.

People familiar with the conversations tell CNN that Biden has been making the calls throughout the week, including on Wednesday, just as many leading Democrats argued the window to a potential candidacy was closing in the wake of Hillary Clinton's strong performance in the party's first presidential debate. He is asking these people to work for him if he runs.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!


The power of the media

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Why is Ted Kaufman sending out the letter equivalent of OJ's "If I did it" to people? Don't worry supporters, if he decides to run it will be a campaign for the middle class and also in memory of his son!

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
New reports have him talking to the firefighters and saying a decision is imminent in the next couple days. If he doesn't announce by Monday or Tuesday I'd expect the no shares to jump in value again.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Gyges posted:

If we make it through the next 2 days without a declaration, will the Biden Yes crater again or do we have to wait at least a week?

I'm kind of tempted to cash out next inversion and buy yes, because it always bounces back.

Biden no is back around .50 now that we've gotten through another weekend

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
This looks like the last chance to get some cheap sub-40 cent NOs

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
21 cents!

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Everything right now seems to be driven off that congressman's tweet

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Beaten

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Considering the "caution on the 48 hour timeline" reports there is definitely going to be an upswing at some point. It doesn't take much for the market to freak out.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

quote:

Vice President Joe Biden is still weighing a decision on running for president, and isn't expected to make an announcement before the end of the week, people close to him said.

That timing would put the decision just before a major Democratic political dinner next weekend in Iowa, where organizers said the vice president can be accommodated there at the last minute should he jump into the race.

As of Monday morning, Biden had not decided whether to run, said one person familiar with his plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity to tamp down expectations amid reports his announcement is imminent.
Another person familiar with the vice president's planning, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said that if Biden decides in the next couple of days he is likely to share it first privately, with family, close friends, and a small circle of staff and supporters.

Tamp it down guys

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
@jonkarl
A person involved in @JoeBiden deliberations tells me he “has not reached an actual decision and therefore there is no announcement coming”

Regretting flipping some of those 20c shares I bought earlier for 30c :smith:

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
That writer also admitted he has a pre written Biden doesn't run article as well

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
The predictitors are reading the tea leaves hard on whatever panel Biden is at now. Might be a good time (again) to pick up cheap NOs and flip them when he doesn't announce today.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
@BillKristol
Biden confirms to Obama at lunch today he's running, announces at U Delaware tomorrow. You can feel the Joementum!

That was 51 minutes ago by the way, not a peep from any actual news source

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
There is a lot of value in the Paul Ryan speaker market right now. NO seems to be pretty undervalued considering he's told the freedom caucus his demands and now they have 2-3 days to hem and haw about it until Friday. There are bound to be some news stories coming that bump up those NO shares.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Gyges posted:

Alternatively head on over to the Biden as the Democratic nominee market, Biden fans have it down to the low 70s/high 60s. It's a bit longer of a bet, but there really is 0 chance that doesn't go up to the low 80s/mid 90s within a week or two.

That's a pretty safe bet and assuming he doesn't announce today, it should go into 80/90 range as early as tomorrow. It's very likely Hillary is going to savage the benghazi committee, especially now that multiple stories about it being a partisan witch hunt have come out. The Biden boys on PredictIt seem to be basing a lot of their logic on Hillary being hurt by these attacks so when she comes out looking like a champ the Biden enthusiasm should go down fast.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
It's been 48 hours since the "he's announcing in 48 hours!" Monday spike and the price is still at a loving dirt cheap 31 cents. This is ridiculous.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
lmfao, high fives all around

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
I think I enjoy Biden YES tears more than Freeper tears. What is happening to me.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Zeta Taskforce posted:

What kept most of us on team NO? Perhaps when the source of those leaks was Willam Kristol? LOL!

It's pretty clear in hindsight when you consider that logically it never made sense for him to run and one or two sources (probably from Draft Biden) were clearly driving the rumors with nothing ever came out of Joe's mouth. I admit I was nervous at the end, I got super burned when bad reporters and anonymous sources were claiming Lebron was going back to Cleveland. It felt like deja vu.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
So uh this order to buy 900 shares of yes isn't going to go through right?

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
The Biden market will never die as long as benjamin ghazi lives

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Ryan no has tanked

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
I don't know, the reports are saying he got a "super majority" of the freedom caucus but not 80% so that's not enough?

Back in the 40s already

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Yeah I sold off my shares, the tortillas failed me :(

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Vox Nihili posted:

I was going to ask why everyone felt so certain on the Ryan No.

I'm still confused because the tortillas have no reason to want to compromise. The right wing media was already firmly behind them. Freep is not going to be happy tonight.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

District Selectman posted:

It sucks that my previous shares are worth so much less, but I will take 15% odds on Ryan NO. There's still plenty of time for fuckery IMO



It might be worth a gamble in the 10 cent range.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Did Cruz poll well after the last debate? He is so contrived in everything he does, it's painful to watch. Also this is a debate on the economy and I'm not sure how repeating abolish the IRS over and over is enough to get a big polling bump. I can't see the media buying into any of his poo poo and giving him a positive narrative.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Debt limit raised by Nov 3rd YES shares are like 70 cents right now. That seems really undervalued.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
I knew I'd regret not loading up all my Biden winnings on those 70 cent debt limit yes shares yesterday

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
It's still a loving bargain at 88 cents. Like seriously, what the hell are you going to do with NO money in a post default world.

  • Locked thread