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Vox Nihili posted:Speaking of which, why haven't they settled that market yet? Burn them once, shame on Jindal. Burn them twice, shame on them. So they're waiting the full week before declaring Walker out.
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Sep 25, 2015 04:07
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One day I'm going to be the one holding 10 cent stocks by the bundle when the market flips. One day. Come on Trump, trump them polls by next week.
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Sep 25, 2015 20:09
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Devils Affricate posted:Is it possible that even if Boehner tries work with the Democrats to avoid a shutdown, the rest of his party can stop that from happening? Like if Boehner offers a reasonable spending bill, they can fillibuster it, right? The House can't filibuster poo poo. If Boehner puts forward something Pelosi agrees to he only needs a small handful of Republicans to also join in in order to pass something. Now if all the Republicans hang together, then it doesn't matter what Boehner does, he can't pass anything. This is exceedingly unlikely and with him resigning at the end of next month there is a vanishingly small chance the government shuts down. Though I did enjoy the crackpot theory that the Pope's visit has radicalized Boehner, and now he's using his last days in office to defund Planed Parenthood. It was a good laugh.
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Sep 25, 2015 22:07
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Stereotype posted:So who is going to be the next majority leader? I really wish they had a huge list of every Republican Rep to chose from. Wanna be able to bet on Gohmert so much. Also I'm kind of hoping they chose someone who isn't even a member of the House just to totally gently caress with everyone. Speaker White Hot Ball Of Rage.
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Sep 25, 2015 22:24
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pathetic little tramp posted:The "Who will be the next speaker" market is open. Your choices are: There should be a Pelosi option.
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Sep 26, 2015 02:23
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The only polls that probably won't gently caress you over are the monthly polls and the weekly Obama one where you can bet across multiple tranches. Still, it's always best to be out of the market at least 1 day before they end. You're not just betting on what the polls are but which polls RCP decides to use.
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Sep 26, 2015 22:54
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Man, now I wish I'd bought more Price for Majority Leader shares. 70 at 5 wasn't too bad though.
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Sep 29, 2015 04:10
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There aren't many ways where Rand gets forced out before loving Jindal, Pataki, or even Christie. The Pauls are all about quixotic Presidential campaigns with no real hope of winning. If Gilmore finally admits that he's not really running does that count as a drop out, or does no one even notice until after the next guy drops out?
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Sep 29, 2015 23:07
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Aliquid posted:So because my portfolio is pretty much a bunch of NOs on random GOP candidates, I'll benefit from this stupid bullshit? My reading of it is that you're about as boned as someone who buys all yes. The goal seems to be that the entire market comes in line as a single, overall, bet. From what they said, it seems more like your overall risk is what is going to get you the pay off. So lets say the bet is between who is going to drop out next Trump, Bush, Rand, and Gilmore. Your bet in the future is based on the overall risk in the market, rather than individual tranches. How they're going to both calculate this risk number and make it clear enough to make a manageable market isn't clear. However, assuming you put all your money on No for all 4 choices, your risk should depend on your spread instead of your actual allocation. Instead your return based on 99 for Trump, 74 for Bush, 49 for Rand and 24 for Gilmore, it would be based on your overall money in No minus whoever actually dropped out. Using the above example, we say you had 100 shares No on each guy and Gilmore drops out first. In the current system you would lose the $24 you put on Gilmore, make $154 from the rest of your bets giving you $130 in winnings. In the new system when Gilmore drops out your risk was only 9.25% so your return is based on that. Of course the return is based on the change in risk instead of just the risk, so I don't know exactly what that works out to. I think. And I'm not great at math so I might have figured things wrong. But it changes the strategy entirely. Instead of betting on each guy individually, allowing you to set up bets where you can't lose by betting on everyone, you're betting on your overall exposure in the market. Yes and No shares should both have their prices lowered significantly but the total shares should increase as people spread their shares around so that they own more cheap shares. I'm not even sure this all makes sense now, having been interrupted in the middle of typing it out. Hopefully someone can decipher if I'm a total moron or just confused.
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Sep 30, 2015 02:50
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How much of a window is even left for Biden to declare at this point?
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Sep 30, 2015 22:26
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I remember Fred Thomson was pretty late. I looked it up: September 6. Fred Thomson was not a serious candidate. He was only in it to help his buddy McCain keep the Huckster at bay. Edit: Official announcement dates are kind of non-germane though. McCain, Clark, and Edwards were all officially unofficially running already. Biden hasn't actually done anything yet other than officially commit to thinking about it. Even Clinton's October announcement in '91 doesn't really count since he'd been setting it up since somewhere around '89. Gyges has issued a correction as of 00:31 on Oct 1, 2015 |
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Oct 1, 2015 00:24
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Necc0 posted:http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/255585-report-biden-to-skip-first-dem-debate This is highly disappointing. You're supposed to first tell everyone that you'll be at the debate, then later send out a second notice that you meant you'd be in the audience because you love debates. Come on, Joe. I do hope the Biden Market crashes back down on the NO. I forgot I had a sell offer in on half my shares, so I'm down to only 500 NO.
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Oct 1, 2015 15:18
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IT'S A SIGN HE'S BUYING MORE TIME UNTIL HE JUMPS IN
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When you sell your shares, does it just sell the oldest shares first or use some other criteria?
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Oct 1, 2015 15:52
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Looking at the trend and trying to read the tea leaves of the comments, it looks like no is probably going to slowly sink back to around where it was at the beginning of the day. Some Yes people probably tried to liquidate shares as soon as it came out Biden wasn't going to be in the debate. Turns out they didn't need to panic since people are just pushing the price back up to where it was. The equilibrium of the Biden market is in the range of 60-70 Yes, 30-40 No. Which is real nice if you feel some level of certainty that Biden isn't jumping in. I think I've actually made more off the Biden market than any other on the site. Buy in at 30 something, sell around 60, repeat. Each day makes his jumping in less likely but the market seems determined to deny this.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:38
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Aliquid posted:In other news, I bought into GOP NO on winning the KY governor's race. It's happening next month and Bevin is shooting himself in the foot at every opportunity so I think it's a lock. Odd year Governor elections are weird and states not on the even number bandwagon should feel bad about themselves.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:52
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Vox Nihili posted:God I hope you're right. I missed out on the 40c range waiting on the site to pay out on my last bet and I really don't want to have to buy at 55c or whatever. We are getting later in the year so it might not pop all the way back, that's a possibility. However look at the market over the last 90 days:  That's crazy for a market where the only notable events are some guy yelling about Biden running while on a train and Biden not showing up for a debate.
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Oct 2, 2015 15:56
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Man, the Biden comments are kind of fun to read. Just insane conspiracy theory level thinking from both sides. Biden Will/Won't run and no matter what fact/info is put out it supports their side. It is very much like in 2008 when no matter what happened it was GOOD FOR HILLARY CLINTON. For instance unions rethinking their early endorsements of Clinton has nothing to do with that socialist guy doing well in the polls right now, it's clearly all about Biden.
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Oct 3, 2015 02:41
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I love how every article moving the market is nothing but anonymous sources. Hopefully this swing will burn through another 3.5k or so shares to my next buy point. This is late as gently caress to jump into the race. He could still do it, but drat Yes guys are bullish for some questionable reasons.
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Oct 4, 2015 02:05
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah I wonder if they'll resolve the market when he says thanks but no or if they're going to hold onto it until the end of the year like they planned. And gently caress you guys who got cheap shares, I paid 54 for mine Well you can buy under 50 now if you want. We're about 900 shares away from dipping below 40. Necc0 posted:If the other markets are anything to go by they'll leave it open until Jan 1st. Walker's markets are all still open and he's dead in the water. Only the ones where he's part of the field. Individual markets and the previous who will drop out first are gone. If Biden officially says he's not in, the market will likely resolve.
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Oct 4, 2015 16:11
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Abel Wingnut posted:is now the time to buy NO on biden? will the price likely drop in the next day or two? Now is a good time, but it may or may not be the time. The price of No looks to still be slowly sliding, but the slide has slowed considerably. You should be able to scoop some up in the low 40s if you buy now. Or, if you wait a few days it may be down in the 30s. It really all depends on if a new story full of anonymous sources comes out. If you don't think he'll run you're looking at more than doubling your money right now. Waiting just increases how much. It doesn't seem likely that No is going to drop down as low as it got after the story about the guy on the train yelling that Biden was running. However we just got a story yesterday from totally anonymous sources that have put out yet another announcement deadline for Diamond Joe. It remains to be seen if this deadline is different than the ones that passed in September with no announcement. Worth noting is that the currently reported deadline puts the decision around the first Democratic debate, which Joe declined to go to. Kind of a weird move to not show up to a debate just so you can announce your candidacy. Especially since Biden is usually pretty good at debates.
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Oct 4, 2015 19:45
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Necc0 posted:I still have no idea if the YES Biden crew are nuts or if they're trying to game the market. I've never seen straw-grabbing to that extreme in any of the other markets. The Yes seem to honestly be 110% convinced he's running. It's weird as hell because there is very little other than your reading of the tea leaves concretely supporting either side.
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Oct 5, 2015 18:21
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Fuschia tude posted:Isn't this exactly what people were pining for a month or two ago, tons of irrational people to trade against? Indeed. Just wish it was in more markets.
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Oct 5, 2015 18:33
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Necc0 posted:Oh yeah, definitely. I'm just not sure if they've finally arrived or if they want it to seem that way. I'm mostly confused as to why Biden seems to be the only irrational market. I mean, other markets are wrong or have high/low splits, but Biden is the only one where facts are for suckers and every bit of news is totally good for the Yes block. There's some wishful thinking in the poll markets, but it's mostly limited to whether or not a poll will come out and how high/low the number has to be for which ever side.
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Oct 5, 2015 21:31
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Looking at the comments for Christie out next, did he seriously only just get his website up today?
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Oct 5, 2015 22:41
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Aliquid posted:Looks like Biden may have stabilized for the day. At one point I was able to pick up exactly one share of NO at .35 This is the thing about the Biden market that is the most insane, it's so volatile with all but no information that you can repeatedly sell shares for 10-20 cents profit and just buy right back in by the end of the week. Possibly at an even lower level than before. If Biden does jump in the race I'm pretty sure I'm still ahead by a dollar or so at this point.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:07
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It's worth noting that if you watch any of his interviews where he talks about running, for instance on Cobert, he seems pretty clearly to not be running. It's only in the random articles that come out and cite anonymous sources that are totally close with Biden that you hear that he's really, really, super thinking about it. Could he still jump in? Sure, his current emotional state could cut either way and he clearly has a desire to be President. However there are a lot or roadblocks to his running that he doesn't appear to be even trying to address. Given how late in the calendar it is, Hillary's overwhelming endorsements, skipping the upcoming debate, having no campaign infrastructure or even any real push for one, and absolutely no leaks of an intention to run beyond some guy who totally knows but can't say who he is, it's unlikely Biden does run.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:19
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Necc0 posted:Interesting new categories in their new market: https://www.predictit.org/Market/16...Peace_Prize2015 What is the likelihood of Merkel being penalized on any peace prize votes for the whole being a giant dickbag to Greece thing? I mean if Kerry gets it, the rest of the group probably does too. Though there's also Obama's Peace Prize that has good reason to be seen as finally earned with the Iran deal. Gyges has issued a correction as of 23:47 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 23:45
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:The media loves a horsereace, but when Biden takes that poo poo, guess who leaks it to the press? Again, the fact that Biden camp has been the source of much of this speculation has been well reported. The most recent revelation is that the Biden/Warren meetup was leaked to the press by Biden himself. The Draft Biden group has been the source of much of this speculation. If I remember correctly the Biden/Warren meeting was leaked to the press by being in log of meetings. It was also the most ridiculous of the Holy poo poo, Biden Is Running "facts". Worse than the Draft Biden guy yelling about Biden running while on a train.
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Oct 7, 2015 00:20
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:No. the worst part about it are the people pointing to this particular episode and claiming that it's some sort of conspiracy wherein the financial director purposefully boarded a train and shouted into a phone in order to be overheard by two passengers who would then independently corroborate the story -- all to get another Biden story leaked to the National Review. Or were the passengers plants as well? Was anyone on the train not part of this canard?! No, I think he probably honestly had a conversation wherein he felt Biden was in. The ridiculousness of the situation was that he's some guy who is part of the Draft Biden group yelling good things about Biden running and people took it on face value. He is predisposed to be looking for anything that says Yes Biden, something more than his yelling on a train is needed for a story.
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Oct 7, 2015 00:44
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How often does the Nobel Peace prize go to just one person?
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Oct 7, 2015 20:49
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The only way to play the polls is to be out 100% by the time you get to work the day they close.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:46
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Now I wish I hadn't cashed out of the Speaker Market after just making a couple bucks.
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Oct 8, 2015 18:11
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The markets for the Democratic Debate are up now, if you didn't know. Biden comments are already promising to perhaps make these markets interesting. CNN Debate rules let Biden change his mind and jump in at almost any time apparently. So of course that's the Biden master plan, wait until the last minute and then jump in and just blow Hillary and Bernie out of the water with the sneak attack. So the Biden wins, gets the most speaking time, and loses are all likely to get wonky. Do we know how Predictit are going to do the incremental contract linking starting tomorrow? All I saw was new contracts starting tomorrow are linked and outstanding ones will incrementally be linked. It'd be real nice if today's markets get linked soon after. Edit: I really hope the Biden Yes running people jump on the "cheap" yes votes on his participation. Drive down that No price guys. It is very tempting to believe that Biden's been reading the Onion's articles and the inner Diamond Joe has slowly been growing in power, finally winning out some time next week. Just as the Democratic Debate starts, and Hillary is asked the first question the roar of a Trans-Am engine can be heard from outside the venue. Hillary's Secret Service detail all get a panicked expression on their face as their fingers go to their ear to better hear their radios. The stage doors are blown off their hinges as Biden drives onto the stage, Journey blaring from his sound system. For the rest of the debate Biden sits on the hood of his car, answering his question through the loud speaker attached to his CB radio. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:40 on Oct 9, 2015 |
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Oct 9, 2015 03:32
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Stereotype posted:To be fair, it was entirely about his dead wife and children Jesus, I'd hate to see their ads if they didn't like the guy. Edit: Spending $2 on the bet that a lot of people aren't going to read the rules correctly, and when Biden doesn't show up his Yes price for CNNDebate loser will shoot up. If not, I should be able to dump it at worst even due to it being a .98 buy on a sure thing for No. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:53 on Oct 9, 2015 |
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Oct 9, 2015 03:48
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Man, and I had none of the above at 11 cents. Of course if I hadn't gotten out of the market a couple days ago I'm sure the Scandinavians would have chosen differently.
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Oct 9, 2015 13:29
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District Selectman posted:Seems like it's free money to take NO on the biggest loser of the debate, if you bet Chaffee, O Malley or Webb. They're barely above 0%, they have no room to fall. Like, Clinton or Sanders could decrease due to polling error and it's worse than their maximum fall. The safest bet is betting No on Biden across the board, followed by voting no on both Webb and Chafee across the board. O'Malley, Bernie, and Hillary all have reasonable cases to be made for either good or bad things to happen, but O'Malley is only polling at .7 so he doesn't really have anywhere to fall. Thinking about going Yes on both Hillary and O'Malley for biggest increase. Hillary is going to come out and get positive press, replacing all the email idiocy for a while. O'Malley is going to try and get people to talk about him, most likely by being the guy on the left who attacks both Hillary and Bernie. Since he doesn't have anywhere to fall, his numbers have little else to do but rise, and just a few points may be enough to win the bet. Bernie is going to say things that we like, and things that are correct. I don't trust the American people to reward him for such. Especially since O'Malley is going to be trying to prove himself the real leftest while being better for the optics conscious and giving the anti-Hillary crowd a guy to cheer. As long as O'Malley doesn't pull out his guitar and try and sing some answers, he'll probably get more out of the debate in the immediate short term, which is what the bet is on. Webb might have had a chance at biggest increase about 2 or 3 cycles ago when people gave a poo poo about Reagan Democrats and their bullshit.
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Oct 10, 2015 03:44
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So it looks like the linked markets got pushed back another week. Now the plan is for the Obama Job Approval market on the 16th. Really not seeing how the trading volume of the last week should be the reason to do it.
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Oct 10, 2015 04:54
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Thanks to team Biden, you can still buy into him not showing up for the debate in the mid 80s. Something that he has already said he is not doing. Other than a long shot on Chafee/Webb winning/losing/most speaking time, it's the biggest money maker in the debate group.
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Oct 10, 2015 20:37
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Necc0 posted:Someone is still buying up Walker shares in RNOM It's just a matter of time until he and Perry unsuspend their campaigns. They'll be back when Mitt returns to save the party.
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Oct 10, 2015 21:24
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| # ¿ May 14, 2024 12:53 |
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Necc0 posted:Someone is still buying up Walker shares in RNOM Actually, I think that's just because Yes is so low that when you buy NO at 98 you're also buying YES at 2. There's probably so little day to day trading that it resets to 0 fairly often, and the prices always show movement from the YES bet. Unrelated, I love the comment in the O'Malley winning the polls section that tells everyone to buy Sanders NO, because it's the same thing as buying O'Malley YES and really every other outcome other then YES Sanders. You'd be a fool to do anything but buy NO Sanders, even if it does lessen your risk/provide an higher rate of return on your bet should, for example, O'Malley, or especially Chafee, somehow pull out the win. Gyges has issued a correction as of 04:43 on Oct 11, 2015 |
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Oct 11, 2015 04:39
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