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I just realized I have no loving idea if Biden is going to run or not and why am i betting on this
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Sep 23, 2015 18:03
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Woke up late, checked politico, dumped my NO shutdown shares at .91. I'm super-over-exposed on Biden NO with about 60% of my portfolio in it and it's slowly sinking
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Sep 25, 2015 18:38
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Took my NO shutdown proceeds and bought into McCarthy YES split between .65 and .66, seems like a good bet to me. edit whoa that shot up fast, now there are only 50 shares available between .69 and .73. I'm out of money, y'all get 'em while they're hot
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Sep 25, 2015 19:47
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edit nm bad post
i say swears online has issued a correction as of 00:26 on Sep 28, 2015 |
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Sep 26, 2015 14:02
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Rubio's got a small surge going on; people are betting he'll overtake Bush soon.
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Sep 28, 2015 23:53
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So because my portfolio is pretty much a bunch of NOs on random GOP candidates, I'll benefit from this stupid bullshit?
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Sep 30, 2015 01:42
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I don't even know: in horse-racing, do the odds on all the horses add up to 1?
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Sep 30, 2015 18:32
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At least BidenRun showed some movement today. My portolio has almost reached its post-Greek Referendum high.
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Oct 1, 2015 01:11
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Well I just went up 20% overnight. Dunno if I should hold onto my McCarthy YES and Biden NO, they're about 80% of my portfolio right now and may be inflated. As I spoke, someone spiked Biden NO from .54 to .58 for no reason and I got out. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 18:22 on Oct 1, 2015 |
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Oct 1, 2015 18:18
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I still think that too; if I can buy in at YES .42-ish I'll ride that coaster. It looks like the numbers are pretty 'soft', they have very few bets separating each cent and could fluctuate more.
i say swears online has issued a correction as of 18:47 on Oct 1, 2015 |
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Oct 1, 2015 18:43
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In other news, I bought into GOP NO on winning the KY governor's race. It's happening next month and Bevin is shooting himself in the foot at every opportunity so I think it's a lock.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:48
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Gyges posted:Odd year Governor elections are weird and states not on the even number bandwagon should feel bad about themselves. Agreed, Virginia in particular sucks at that.
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Oct 1, 2015 20:24
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Biden NO didn't drop at all today, just a quick dip this afternoon around 50/50.
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Oct 2, 2015 05:38
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I'm starting to feel Rubio YES is overvalued
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Oct 3, 2015 17:53
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A lot are pretty arbitrary, like Grexit or Biden 2015.
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Oct 5, 2015 04:28
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Biden NO is getting cheap, can't say I'm not nervous though
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Oct 5, 2015 16:17
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pathetic little tramp posted:Ugh why won't they let me profit on Jeb nomination NO? I'm just trying to sell at 72, but that fucker can't move the needle past 69. Yeah I sold and got out, Jeb's market is too slow. I apparently got drunk last night and bought into Rubio NO, I think this was a mistake.
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Oct 5, 2015 19:29
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"That said, it is reasonable to expect that aggregate prices that are far above $1 are going to fall. By aligning the price of shares to the risk involved, it is likely that demand for “No” shares will rise, leading to an increase in price for those shares and therefore, a fall in the price of “Yes” shares. The degree of this change will vary from market to market, contract to contract, and will ultimately be determined by you." fun
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Oct 6, 2015 01:15
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So when looking at a question with a binary outcome, it won't matter whether I buy A YES or B NO?
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Oct 6, 2015 04:34
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Fuckin' same. There are 2500 shares of Biden NO available at .37 and those will last all day, so I figure that's a good buy-in spot. I sold about $15 worth of Rubio NO to strengthen my Bidens
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Oct 6, 2015 17:36
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I blame the Onion. I dunno, people just like the guy and I guess that makes them act irrationally. I like Biden, too, but facts is facts
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Oct 6, 2015 18:03
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Looks like Biden may have stabilized for the day. At one point I was able to pick up exactly one share of NO at .35
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Oct 6, 2015 19:45
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Oh, if he actually announces, I'm hosed.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:24
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Jewel Repetition posted:The reason he's leaving it uncertain is he'll only run if it looks like Hillary's imploding or will implode. It also helps get non-negative news coverage for the Democrats in a cycle otherwise dominated but the GOP. When he declines, it'll be good for the party, making Hilldawg look like a strong and capable candidate; she may even get his endorsement.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:40
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I think I'm the only one itt to actually screenshot picks and investment amounts. People rightfully hold their cards to their chest. I'm in this for $20 total plus $40 of a friend's money so I'm not actually concerned with min-maxing and ROI, it's the camaraderie and speculation that makes me want to post tbh this is interesting poo poo and the stuff we talk about is worth much more to me personally than the actual money invested
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Oct 7, 2015 06:13
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When did Michael Bloomberg announce he was running??
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Oct 7, 2015 19:03
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Not as a Republican, and probably never. edit ah, I thought he was up in the primary market, not the general market.
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Oct 7, 2015 19:47
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Yeah, frankly, "people buying things they care about" is how you lose money. It takes dispassion. Since we're all emotional beings it's impossible to rid this of ourselves completely, but I like my method: I'll buy shares in events or people where I'd be disappointed if the outcome goes my way. That way, either I make money or a good thing happens, like my Bernie NO shares for Iowa. vvv that too, gently caress poll markets i say swears online has issued a correction as of 03:08 on Oct 8, 2015 |
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Oct 8, 2015 02:20
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new page reminder that, if you're reading this, announcing would gently caress me to my core in a bad way, joe
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Oct 8, 2015 09:24
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I had McCarthy YES up until a week ago and I still have no idea why I sold since he seemed like such a sure bet. Yikes.
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Oct 8, 2015 19:34
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the best part about PredictIt is coming here to speculate, ugh today was hard
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Oct 9, 2015 03:22
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.40 Biden NO still available, I'm sitting at 60% of my portfolio on Biden NO at .41 but I don't have the money to buy in. I have the feeling November is going to be a good month for establishment dems
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Oct 9, 2015 06:46
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The Yes contract is in the 6 or 7 range. I bought some up to hedge my Biden No position. So low there is hardly any downside. I don't think he's going to run, but assuming he jumps in the race (in the next few days) the CNN debate Yes is going to massively surge. The debate's in like 53 hours, though.
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Oct 11, 2015 20:22
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Someone's currently making a run on Biden NO. For the amount of shares out there, there's surprisingly thin ice between .45 and .50. This may swing hard? I really have no idea.
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Oct 12, 2015 01:08
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gently caress, Biden NO rebounded hard while I was out drinking and I can't buy in again tonight. It looks like NO is softer than YES, which has a hard barrier at .49 and even harder at .50. "Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth day. At dawn look to the east." i say swears online has issued a correction as of 08:56 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 07:35
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District Selectman posted:Cashed out of all of my Biden No's to run. I still like it, but there's free money in the mean time. Hopefully some silly story comes out that gets people all riled up again. Unless you see a quick return on your other stuff, I think you made a mistake. A lot of Biden YES people were hedging on Hillary flaming out in the debate, and now that she's shown she's fine on stage it seems less likely he jumps in. Plus, the market will essentially close (or jump up to .80ish and stay there) on Halloween which isn't that far away, investment-wise. edit: just checked and cha-ching
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Oct 14, 2015 05:19
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District Selectman posted:Bought around $0.40, sold around $0.55, I'm ok with that. That's almost 40% return on a max bet. Only have to wait a week for the debate stuff to close out, then I'll see where Biden is at again. I've got about half a max bet for Diamond Joe NO for the D Nom, so I'll be happy either way. Yeah, all this did was really calm my nerves and reassure myself since I'm at about 75% in on Biden NO now, average .41. edit 75% of my portfolio, not 75% of $850. Yikes. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 05:42 on Oct 14, 2015 |
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Oct 14, 2015 05:39
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good, goooood *temples fingers* EDIT  it's happening, hold off if you want more Biden NOHey, can I see ALL buy/sell orders or am I only privy to the top five? The top five almost gives me an indication of the liquidity of the market but not quite. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 06:21 on Oct 14, 2015 |
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Oct 14, 2015 06:11
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District Selectman posted:Cmon son, max bet that poo poo this is student loan money, don't prod my ego
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Oct 14, 2015 06:23
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EngineerSean posted:I know I'm some kind of gambling addict because the the hundred dollars I made in four hours last night buying at 50 and selling at 60 is way better than sitting at my desk manipulating numbers and making two hundred an hour. It's really fun, way better than actual gambling because I finally found a reason why I've spent the last decade reading worthless political news. I was just developing instincts.
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Oct 14, 2015 18:59
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