|
Ugh, this site is full of reasonable people. Can someone with a longtime account share this link on freep or something so we can get bigger profits?
|
#
¿
Aug 27, 2015 18:56
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 22:28 |
|
|
Yeah the no is already at 85 cents. Fiorina participating in the top-tier CNN debate is starting to tilt towards yes, but she's neck and neck with Christie on missing the cut so that's a tough one. I still have to go with no. edit: And I just made crazy money on Fiorina - the YES went up to like 80, and is already down to 20. Bought in at 40, if I sell out now I double my money but if I ride it to the debate I make 150%. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:20 on Aug 27, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Aug 27, 2015 19:18
|
|
|
Jewel Repetition posted:I don't mean you specifically, I mean, if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it? Well, in theory. You buy a share for 99 cents that's a sure thing, you win a dollar. But PredictIt takes 10% as a rake, then you can only withdraw 95% of your money due to a withdrawal fee if I'm doing the math correctly.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 27, 2015 22:28
|
|
|
The way to make money appears to be to buy in immediately when they introduce something that has an obvious answer like "Will Carly Fiorina be in the top-tier CNN debate?" The answer is obviously no, but if you get in early, it only costs 50 cents to buy No, even though No will quickly rise to 95 cents. So the question is, when do new markets get introduced?
|
|
#
¿
Aug 28, 2015 01:03
|
|
|
Whenever I see a YouTube comment these days along the lines of "HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL" I like to reply that they can make mad money on that bet. The real trick will be somehow convincing them that this is like the White House petition site, if enough people buy YES face charges, it'll actually happen.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 28, 2015 20:29
|
|
|
Jewel Repetition posted:Do people with correct shares get more money if a lot of people buy wrong shares? Yeah it's a 1:1 market, you can't buy a yes share unless an no share is also bought and the prices are mirrors of each other. So, yesterday, there was a period where "Will Carly Fiorina be in the top-tier CNN debate" was overrun by people thinking that yes she would (I don't know, Carly Fiorina supporters?) So YES was selling for 80 cents a share. This means you can buy a bunch of NO for 20 cents.* When No turns out to be the correct answer, you make a dollar for every share you own. Since you bought at 20 cents, you made 80 cents a share. Or, the market will correct when it's more obvious Fiorina will not compete (closer to the event usually), and No shares will be worth 80 to 90 cents. You can sell early and make a 60-70 cent profit per share. *I forget the exact numbers so I'm simplifying here
|
|
#
¿
Aug 28, 2015 20:54
|
|
|
The tough ones are the "what will the polling be for this" ones. It's not usually stuff like "Obama approval above 50 or below." It's more like 44.5 or 45? I didn't think it'd get up to 45 so I lost 6 bucks on that today.zeal posted:this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started? As long as you're in a state where it's allowed, you can make a deposit with a simple credit card. It takes 30 days before you're allowed to withdraw, and I think there's a minimum withdrawal, I don't know what it is.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 28, 2015 22:31
|
|
|
Yeah all signs are pointing the the Iran deal passing, there was some brouhaha that it wouldn't and a few big defectors, but I think that one's a safe no because he won't have to veto it.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 30, 2015 00:55
|
|
|
Everything is pretty lovely at the moment. There's some obvious stuff like will Hillary be polling above 45 by September's end, but you can't buy into no for less than 80 cents already. I'm banking big on Jeb continuing a nosedive in the polls, especially after he decides to go "GUNS BLAZING" after Trump in the next debate, which will end disastrously for him. I'm also being bullish about Hillary suffering through another little bit of a mild September and giving up a few points to keep her from being a firm choice yet in a lot of voters' minds. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 19:07 on Sep 1, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 1, 2015 16:54
|
|
|
Hahaha, CNN just decided to go against the RNC and the FEC to capitulate to the pressure and let Fiorina in. There goes my money.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 1, 2015 23:10
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Yeah, hopefully the no buys raise enough to keep it from being a complete lose before the debate. 3 cents a share is pretty close to worth less than the outside chance she still doesn't make the debate somehow. Probably Christie burying her beside Hoffa. Fortunately I just realised I only bought 10 shares, so I'm only out 4.50 for when I bought in. I was really thinking of buying in on yes yesterday, too, just because it seemed like something that would be good for ratings and there was so much chatter about it. In the end, we get Fiorina in a debate with Trump. That's worth 4.50 to me, now let the Iran deal go through you fuckers in Congress.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 2, 2015 00:01
|
|
|
Wanamingo posted:Thanks to whoever said the Iran veto thing was a safe bet, I made $60 on that today. Yeah that's my biggest money maker right now. I could sell and get about, what, 90 bucks right now? But I'm thinking I should hold out for the solid 100. My question is, when would they declare "Okay this is obviously a no." When the resolution denying the deal passes? It might make more sense to get the 90 and screw with it if that takes 3 weeks or more.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 2, 2015 17:30
|
|
|
ˆˆˆha, what he said.Golden Bee posted:But the filing deadline is two months out. The real trick to making money isn't being right, it's predicting when people are going to think they're right. I've got most of my shares right now tied up in waiting for some polls to deviate and get people to buy my shares on Hillary and Jeb, but right now picking a yes on Biden would be smart because next... week? I think he's going to be on Colbert, and a lot of people are going to think he's saying he'll run which should inflate the prices. (Or buy no and sell em all once he announces on the show that he isn't running).
|
|
#
¿
Sep 2, 2015 18:21
|
|
|
Yeah I should've jumped on it. Some people who can't see the writing on the wall have driven the no price down to 77 cents, so now I'm playing the waiting game.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 2, 2015 19:14
|
|
|
Gyges posted:No real news, I think a couple think pieces came out saying Republicans would be stupid to do it. Also polling that shows a sizeable majority of voters don't want the government shut down over Planned Parenthood. Yeah I bought no when it was at 45 and I'm thinking of uploading with this ˜30 cent profit on each share just in case republicans actually are this dumb.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 14, 2015 21:01
|
|
|
gently caress it, that sounds like fun. I'm going to try to make a profit on both sides of this coin. I just sold 50 no shares for about ˜30 cents profit each, now I'm going to buy up 50 yes shares and see if I can make at least a quarter on each. edit: drat, I apparently didn't sell all of my no shares so it won't let me buy yes until I unload my lsat few nos, and I don't like the profit I'd make now. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 21:08 on Sep 14, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 14, 2015 21:06
|
|
|
Another fun new one: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1575 How many people will watch the second debate? The first debate scored 24million viewers, so I think that's the floor, but will they break 26million?
|
|
#
¿
Sep 14, 2015 21:10
|
|
|
Which republican will drop out next? https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1576 Santorum or Pataki are good choices, but Jindal has a good chance of embarrassing an active political career so maybe he's feeling the heat?
|
|
#
¿
Sep 16, 2015 22:11
|
|
|
It's pretty new, I don't think a lot of people have bought shares yet. edit: Yeah, in fact, there are 0 shares on all of them. That's pretty crazy. You'd figure there'd be a bunch of people driving up the price of TrumpNO right? Maybe they let people put in bids for the first 30 minutes or so before starting to fulfill trades? Either way, I'm going to see if anyone out there is chump enough to think Jeb!YES is a steal at 50cents pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 22:37 on Sep 16, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 16, 2015 22:33
|
|
|
Audio is now playable. Now we gotta get you interviewed on Limbaugh, Necc0. We don't need more smarties on PredictIt. Hahaha this stupid fucker didn't bet on Trump having the most speaking time. edit: Oh my God he kept buying no shares during the debate. That's where all my money came from yesterday. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 23:22 on Sep 17, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 17, 2015 23:18
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:That was me Hahaha what the hell I thought you were the second guy they interviewed. You know I love you anyway, sweet baby Jesus. I will admit, I was worried that they were being pretty fair and letting everyone get some equal time, but I knew in the end that you can't stump the trump. Those first 15 minutes must have been hell for you. Be glad the market closed at 9 at least because those NO shares would have gotten super expensive shortly after that when it seemed like they were never going back to Trump. As it was, you were buying a bunch of 10 cent shares of a not-ridiculosuly-long-shot of a bet. And he ended up only about 3 minutes ahead of Jeb.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 18, 2015 00:56
|
|
|
Yeah the place to get in on Jeb was sub-10% back on Sept 1, I bought all my shares at 38, that's going to be huge. edit: Unless people think he did really well in the debates. One thing I've noticed if you just want to turn things around quickly, you have to get in on the newly opened markets and take a position. If you're happy making 10 cents a share and there's a month to go, likely the swings will get you that 10 cents at some point. Stuff like will Greece exit in 2015 takes forever and goes a long time without seeing any movement though. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:54 on Sep 18, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 18, 2015 18:48
|
|
|
House just voted to defund Planned Parenthood, I'm hoping we've got some chicken littles in the shutdown yes camp who don't see it as just political gamesmanship and bought a quick 25 shares at 35 to see if I can turn them into 50. edit: And yes just dropped 5 cents. Dammit. Can't we get some dumb people on this site? pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:46 on Sep 18, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 18, 2015 20:20
|
|
|
And nothing has indicated yes, just the usual blather thAt leads up to any announcement, yes or no. Of course the media plays it as yes because that's more interesting, but all their evidence is the usual concluding things based on what you already assume is true stuff. I think it's 50 50 at this point and that's why I bought thirty no shares at 33 cents, just because I think no is about 17 cents cheaper than it should be.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 20, 2015 18:12
|
|
|
Scott Walker is flying up the "next to drop out" list amid reports that apparently republican insiders are saying it's time to jettison the dead weight. Stanley Hubbard, one of his bigger donors is telling people he's off the Walker train too. I wish there were some kind of market to bet on David Cameron getting hosed up because Jesus Christ he's literally a pigfucker, Putin could be the next PM at this point. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 17:19 on Sep 21, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2015 17:14
|
|
|
Yeah I'm feeling like a bit of an idiot for just selling at 45.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2015 17:34
|
|
|
Biden NO is climbing, I think I'm gonna sidle on out of that market with a pretty profit instead of trusting my gut that he's not running.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2015 18:50
|
|
|
I'm holding out for the end of the month, just letting all my money ride on Trump > 25, Biden > 15, Bush < 10. This is a very heart-wrenching way to do this, I'm going to be waiting way too long and Trump has a real potential to dip in the polls.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2015 18:01
|
|
|
I wish there were a way to set upper and lower limits. Like, I want to sell these shares at 79 cents, but if there's a frenzy going on, I don't want to drop below 70 so I'll let go of them at that too, but I guess with the way the site operates that's not really possible.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2015 21:51
|
|
|
I need more "thing will happen" to bet on. Poll betting is a lot more susceptible to random little outliers.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 23, 2015 19:28
|
|
|
Yeah that's why those are crapshoots. Never hold those, just play the swings. Or buy a poo poo load of cheap shares near the end of the term to see if you can turn a buck 80 into ten bucks.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 24, 2015 13:56
|
|
|
Yeah I bought in on some Congress above 15 NO and Trump above 25 Yes. Overall investment, about 10 dollars, overall return if both of those switch up (which is not impossible) is about 80 dollars.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 24, 2015 17:12
|
|
|
One thing that I just noticed. The value of your shares is not based on what you can actually sell them for, but based on what they were last traded at. That's a pretty important distinction, I thought I'd miraculously doubled the price of my cheapo longshots from this morning.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 24, 2015 20:18
|
|
|
The Senate didn't even need to filibuster to kill the Defund PP version of the CR. Their own version should pass Monday and the House won't have the stamina to hold firm now that representatives got their "Vote for me I defunded PP" vote in. Not saying NO is a lock at this point, but you're probably not going to get much of a spike on the YESwagon as we count up to the end.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 24, 2015 23:49
|
|
|
Yeah whoops, I had my sells marked at 75 because I figured they'd get to that on Monday and I wanted to unload up 20/share juuuust incase the house went nuts. Missed out on ˜30/share. Making money on this site means a lot of jumping on trends and re-adjusting your sell prices. I'm also at a disadvantage on the west coast if news like this breaks at 9.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 25, 2015 17:55
|
|
|
A new challenger approaches! https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1241/Will-Kevin-McCarthy-be-the-next-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives He's a pretty good bet, honestly. I'd love to see the Gohmert market though.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 25, 2015 18:47
|
|
|
PredictIt ProTip, when there are multiple options and one is at 99 YES, there's always a little delay before people realise the other markets should resolve as NO, so you can sometimes catch a few 90s if you missed the YES upsurge.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 25, 2015 20:10
|
|
|
The "Who will be the next speaker" market is open. Your choices are: Scalise, Rodgers Jim Jordan Pete Sessions Tom Price Patrick McHenry Pete Roskam
|
|
#
¿
Sep 25, 2015 23:25
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:They'll all gently caress you over, really. Much safer to avoid them entirely. It's hard to, though, because there are few other short-term options. Yeah, making money with any kind of swiftness is all luck really. The only strategy on a non-poll market is to find a NO that's way undervalued, grab onto it and put in your sell orders a little above it, hoping the eventual spike will happen sooner rather than later. edit: drat, just made money on McMorris-Rodgers NO, what caused that spike, did she say something? pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:06 on Sep 28, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Sep 28, 2015 17:50
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 22:28 |
|
|
Waiting for Shutdown YES to get down to a nickel and see if I can make 95x my investment when an obstacle no one thought of crops up.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 28, 2015 23:39
|
|