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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

MacMillan posted:

Usually oil states fear for the worst and hope the stagnation of oil prices will eventually settle or even increase. How will a stumble in the Chinese market affect Venezuela? Could this be a final blow?

The NY Times had an article on this just this morning.

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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Mercury_Storm posted:

Why is smuggling products from Columbia so profitable? Are basic items like shampoo really that hard to find, or overpriced?

Yes. But there's also a thriving business in sneaking some food products out of the country. Milk and gasoline are frequently smuggled from Venezuela to Colombia.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
Maduro's a shithead, but I'm not hot on the opposition either. US-backed coups in Central and South America to install business-friendly right-wing regimes is just not my jam.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

fishmech posted:

How is this meant to be relevant to Venezuela? Are you alleging that the US faked the elections several years back or something?

I think that we've wanted a regime change since I was back in college and that big capital wants to get its mitts on Venezuela's oil again. The aid convoys are an obvious Trojan Horse and if you think that Guaido isn't going to end up owing his soul to the CIA when all is said and done then you're painfully naive.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Mozi posted:

Worth a reminder that no troops went to Colombia as a result of Bolton's scribblings.

The thing about plans is that they don't always take place right away.

I'd love to see Maduro thrown out on his rear end, but any outside force that comes in to knock him over is just going to turn Venezuela into a vassal state. Particularly the US which has a history of doing just that very thing.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

GreyjoyBastard posted:

What if he's

- knocked out by a bloodless / mostly bloodless internal Venezuelan revolt?
- persuaded by a non-US coalition and the US-including international pressure he's under to hold fair elections?

I've been convinced that the former is preferable insofar as it maybe makes for a stronger successor government that's less beholden to the US / outside forces, but i still maintain that the latter is preferable to Maduro staying

Either of these would be a better option but I don't think that that's the direction that events are headed. Maduro's a dumptruck driving moron, but a lot of people have a lot of money tied up in his government.

fishmech posted:

So ok, you don't actually know anything about Venezuela. Well it's nice that you admitted it. Refreshing to see someone just say "the opposition was fairly elected by the people but it doesn't matter because uhhh CIA!! Be scared because i said CIA!!!"

Well, about half of my family is native Venezuelan so I feel like I've talked to people who are interested in what's going on and informed about events, especially since half of their close relatives are still in Venezuela.

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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Most of this thread is against US direct intervention and thinks that at least the recent sanctions are boneheaded and horrible.

Personally I suspect the Trump administration doesn't have / won't get its poo poo together enough to commit to direct intervention (which is good!), which means the current sanctions holding pattern is likely to continue (which is bad!) until something else gives.

Other than grassroots protests in Venezuela, the International Contact Group is maybe the thing for optimists to watch:

https://www.fundacioncarolina.es/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/AC1-en.pdf (a look at what they're up to from some venezuelablog nerds)

https://venezuelablog.org/venezuela-weekly-international-contact-group-meets-quito/ (the weekly venezuelablog update post that headlines the ICG)

tldr they're european and some south american countries seeking a negotiated solution if possible and to streamline aid if not

and probably only exist because the USA is being openly thuggish and led by Donald J Trump, but hey, a US-independent group taking the lead would probably be a good thing even under President Bernie Sanders

One thing working in our favor is that the Trump administration is pretty scatterbrained and has trouble concentrating on completing any particular policy goal. Especially as we start going into the long, long, presidential election season I like to think that there's less of a chance of him kicking off a war.

M. Discordia posted:

Yes, their position is that anyone who ever has opposed Chavez or Maduro is a "U.S. puppet" and the democratic election which brought the Guaidó-led National Assembly to legitimate power never happened.

Keep loving that chicken.

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