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Please hurry up, I've got a bottle of rum waiting either way.
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Dec 7, 2015 04:45
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Holy poo poo, I seriously expected them to try to do some sort of fraud. The MUD claims a 2/3rd majority with the tallies in their hands, it's a matter of time until the rest of the seats come in and we know for sure (even if we don't, with only two more seats we get 3/5ths, a major blow). Holy gently caress. If you'll excuse me, I'll be busy getting shitfaced until tomorrow in celebration. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 06:06
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The word is that the government is trying to negotiate hard for those last seats, it's not a coincidence the first bulletin placed the MUD right below a 3/5th majority. The government top guys are essentially fighting for their survival at the moment because someone is going to get thrown to the dogs. The MUD however, doesn't seem willing to negotiate their victory. During their victory speech the secretary of the coalition basically said the final results would not get better for the government and they all know it.
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Dec 7, 2015 06:28
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CalmDownMate posted:Why would MUD negotiate ? The new assembly wouldn't be sworn in until January 5th. The PSUV still has a window of time to make a mess before that happens. Anyway, that's just the rumor mill talking. Hopefully, they won't even consider such a thing and we'll finally have a clear, undeniable victory.
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Dec 7, 2015 06:33
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 Diosdado's face during Maduro's speech 
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Dec 7, 2015 07:02
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Every single seat in Chavez's home state went to the opposition, godamnm.
Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 07:26
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Bob le Moche posted:It was very nice of the PSUV to use their absolute control of the elections in such a way as to make the opposition win Their own gerrymandering tricks created a winner takes all scenario. Thankfully, they're too disconnected from the people that they didn't even consider it would backfire in the end. Shakespearean Beef posted:I doubt there are many. Perhaps at most 2% of voters. I would put money on the actual result for MUD being 98-99%. You're crazy. Chavismo still has a healthy amount of support, this vote should be seen as a punishment to the top dogs of the PSUV, who though they could keep winning elections indefinitely thanks to their control of the media, handing out a few goodies, and intimidation. If they play their cards right and find some competent leadership, Chavismo will remain a political force in Venezuela for the near future.
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Dec 7, 2015 15:08
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Chuck Boone posted:Labradoodle, what's your take on the primary results (99 vs. 46)? The MUD announced early in the night that they had won 113 seats. Do you think that they're right, and that the 6 hour delay was the result of the government and the CNE trying to get that number down so that they could open room for negotiation? That's my take on it as well. Although I did cheer like a schoolgirl when Tibisay read the PSUV seats first, as I did the math. They had to announce something last night due to the huge amount of pressure both from within and outside, but they're hoping the MUD will back down under threats in private. That being said, the certainty with which some opposition spokespersons have told people they're certain of having 113 seats can only mean they have the tallies in their hands. Hopefully, after years of being kicked around, they're not in any mood to back down and the government will recognize it's in their best interest as well to avoid conflict. UPDATE: By the way, my district elected the first transgender candidate in the history of the National Assembly, that's pretty cool. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 15:23
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Borneo Jimmy posted:With the far right now in control of the assembly, it will be interesting to see what their economic policies will be, given that privatization of public services and ending the housing missions that have provided homes for the homeless are on their agenda, there most definitely will be push-back. The opposition members of the assembly have, for years now, pushed for a bill that would give legal ownership deeds of their Mision Vivienda houses to the people living in them. A bill which the government has blocked time and time again. Again, the kind of stuff you would know if you ever read anything about Venezuelan Politics beyond Venezuelan Analysis.
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Dec 8, 2015 01:51
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punk rebel ecks posted:Interesting. Though that is the only site that seems to be reporting that matter. I can't speak for the rest of their coverage, but ABC.es is very colorful when it comes to Venezuela. For example now they're claiming that the opposition ran a complex operation to block the signals of a couple thousand centers in order to prevent Chavistas from transmitting results (http://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-chavismo-quiso-romper-proceso-electoral-y-posponerlo-201512080101_noticia.html), what the gently caress? There's plenty of insane poo poo going on in Venezuela, but ABC.es is as serious a source as Venezuelan Analysis.
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Dec 8, 2015 02:28
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Rahu posted:So are there official numbers about the election results published now that a day has passed? I just looked over a few news sources and can't find anything beyond MUD having (at least) 99 seats which we knew last night. Nope. The much-touted Venezuelan election system is never swift, but I think this is a new record. We pretty much know the results by now, the opposition passed the 2/3rds threshold, but the electoral council refuses to release the information publicly because the government doesn't want to look bad. At this point it's pretty much like they're throwing a tantrum.
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Dec 8, 2015 04:04
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Apparently the dispute is down to one last seat, circuit three of Aragua. Where the MUD won by 300 votes according to the final tallies. They're waiting for the paper tallies of a few tables to see if that will affect the results, which they shouldn't, since they're all added electronically. This last seat is crucial because it will give the MUD a 2/3rds supermajority, which is what the government obviously wants to avoid. For those tuning into these elections, this is why there's always rumors of fraud in Venezuela and we were so vocal about closing voting centers when the law called for it: the electoral council is so obviously beholden to the government party they might as well just go on air right now and say "Hey guys, calm down. We'll give the final results once the party's satisfied with them".
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Dec 8, 2015 15:17
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Chuck Boone posted:I've used it as a source in my work before. What's also important to point out is that this story has been reported by some really reputable journalists in Venezuela, including Nelson Bocaranda. I hadn't thought about it that way before, I saw the announcement as well but dismissed it as another quirk of a country with a hard-on for the military "Oh, of course, we need a bunch of guys in green to come out and say that everything went fine". Anyway, if Bocaranda reported it as well, it's pretty much certain they had their hand in it one way or the other. It's pretty sad that a lot of my friends here are attributing our victory to their intervention rather than the hard work of the MUD witnesses, though, those guys were freaking heroes defending every last vote. On another note, last night Maduro delivered what may have been the most incoherent speech of his presidency up to date, right from the site of Chavez's grave. It included gems such as the following: "I am Hugo Chavez, yes, I am Hugo Chavez! If I have to defend the workers of ANTV myself, I will do so." "I am in the right, I have the moral authority, I have the truth and I'll go forward. It's not a matter of majorities or minorities." "The economic war drove you to vote against yourselves. It was a mistake, you made a mistake." "I was going to build 500.000 homes, but I don't think I can anymore because you withdrew your support." He also let it slip that they knew the results of the election at 9 PM on Sunday, that they're going to be changing their cabinet, and at one point Maduro (while reading tweets in the air), mistakenly read out one that simply said "Maduro, suck it"  On the topic of vetoing the Amnesty Law, I think the smartest thing the opposition could do once they're sworn in would be not to seek a recall referendum right away; the country is in the middle of a major crisis and a recall would dominate the discussion for quite a while. Let Maduro hang himself when he attempts to block legislation designed to get us out of this hole (as he is sure to do) and then move in for the kill, by then the government will have lost its deathgrip on the media and nobody's going to stick his neck out for him.
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Dec 9, 2015 15:21
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Hugoon Chavez posted:I disagree with this, I think having Maduro and Co still around and holding power would just mean that anything the MUD tries to achieve is going to be faced with heavy opposition. I don't think he's going to make it anywhere near to the end of his term in 2019, I'm just concerned what happens with the public opinion if they feel that the MUD is just concerned about seeking revenge for the past years. But then again, it may be a moot point; if Maduro continues to put his foot in his mouth at the accelerated pace of these past few days, it may just be that everyone from both sides agrees on the single issue that the guy's got to go as soon as possible.
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Dec 9, 2015 15:48
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Hugoon Chavez posted:Do you really think people would see this act of "vengeance" as something negative? Because in my experience, seems to be the #1 thing on everyone's mind: to send every Chavist leader packing. You're probably right. I think the underdog mentality just runs deep in me after all the electoral defeats haha, I'm going to have to adjust to the fact that we're not a minority anymore.
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Dec 9, 2015 16:59
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AstraSage posted:Let me start by quoting something I posted a few days ago: Add to that the possibility that at any time some rear end in a top hat will get on your bus and rob everyone at any time of the day, seriously, gently caress buses. I'm pretty lucky the subway is a decent way to get around in Caracas. Also, I think he's referring to import shenanigans using preferential dollars, or the people who travel there to cash in their travel allotments and need phony receipts to show CADIVI upon return.
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Dec 10, 2015 15:18
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Last week the MUD sent out a press release to pre-empt this move basically saying "Hey, we know what you're trying to pull, knock it off", the Supreme Court went like "That is a completely false and unfounded accusation" and then here we are. The real cherry on top of this whole fiasco is the wording of these challenges uses many of the same arguments that motherfucking Capriles made in 2013 when he attempted to contest the results of those elections and everyone said he was full of it. That plus the government making a big deal of signing a document to respect the results beforehand. The new assembly is supposed to be sworn in on January 5th, let's see what happens in the meantime.
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Dec 30, 2015 01:23
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drilldo squirt posted:If they were going to pull this why didn't they just lie about the results or something? Outright fraud would've been very easy to prove and they can't have that, a large part of chavismo's credentials are based on its repeated success at the polls. Challenging these specific districts could cost the MUD up to 8 seats if they go forward with it, but that would imply re-doing the elections in these places. The key here is that a couple of these races were close enough that chavismo could've won them if they had a better turnout, and if the challenges go through elections would have to be held again in these districts. If the MUD loses a single deputy it will forfeit the 2/3rds majority. To put things in perspective, that majority basically puts a gun to the head of the government: shape up or get kicked out real soon; without it, they can still accomplish some things but the government would get a new lease on life. Plus, this way they still get to say "See? they won the elections! This is a democracy". Naturally the MUD won't accept this, but short of protests forcing the government to back down I don't see how they can actually enforce their victory. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Dec 30, 2015 |
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Dec 30, 2015 02:24
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Food and medicine, the medicinal crisis is worse at the moment. The problem, though, is that the government doesn't want to play ball at all. This latest move to will likely precipitate a constitutional crisis and foster in a period of ungovernability until it's resolved, with the new parliament dissolved, the current government unseated or a third option where the MUD and the government reach some kind of consensus as to how to move forward.
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Dec 31, 2015 17:27
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Tomorrow the new assembly will be seated after a march from opposition supporters that will take place only a couple of blocks from my home, I'll try to be there. During their last days in office, the old national assembly approved over a billion bolivares for the government (in a session that lasted 20 minutes), looted the equipment and fired several workers from the official government channel that covers the assembly (after saying that the opposition planned to gut the channel themselves), and packed the Supreme Court with staunch PSUV supporters who will honor the tradition of their predecessors who didn't rule against the government once in over a decade. The worst news of the past days, however, is that Maduro passed a law by decree (which he was empowered to do thanks to the old assembly) which essentially states that only the president can name members of the Central Bank's board of directors (whereas previously half would be selected by the assembly and half by him under their guidance) and the bank can directly finance the state and other private institutions (which expressly violates the constitution). The government has been printing money at an alarming rate during the past few years (we closed 2015 with an inflation of 215%) and now, faced with losing control of the state budget due to the change in leadership within the assembly, they've elected to outright steal the printing machine in order to continue unabated. We're likely to finally reach hyperinflation this year unless the assembly forces a change in government soon, which implies a confrontation.
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Jan 5, 2016 01:23
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Chuck Boone posted:Any predictions for tomorrow, Labradoodle? I saw that Henry Ramos Allup (the MUD deputy who will be National Assembly President starting tomorrow) was blocked from entering the building today just because. I also just saw that Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino Lopez said that the army wasn't a referee and that it wasn't its job to mediate between political parties. Well, right now Maduro is on cadena saying that he wants the new assembly to be seated in peace and with no incidents. I'm guessing the next move is to kind of ignore the official assembly when possible (probably by saying they don't have a 2/3rds majority due to the Supreme Court's ruling), and talk up the communal parliament moving forward. UPDATE: The session is beginning and Diosdado already gave us a glimpse of their future maneuvers by stating that any decision that includes the contested assembly members will be null and void. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Jan 5, 2016 |
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Jan 5, 2016 01:53
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Adventure Pigeon posted:So how are things going over there? Isn't the new assembly being seated today? Seated with a few minor isolated incidents on the way in, but no major violent outbreaks. The assembly is still in the "opening" process, which means that the oldest assembly member (who's in the middle of a rambling speech) is leading a discussion before the assembly president takes his seat. The question now is how they will respond to the "suspension" of their fellow members, Cilia Flores (Maduro's wife) pretty much said that if the assembly doesn't recognize the authority of the Supreme Court, the other powers should not recognize the authority of the assembly, but let's see how things proceed. UPDATE: The new leaders of the assembly are about to be sworn in and some reporters have been attacked outside by members of colectivos, but everything inside is proceeding with normalcy. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Jan 5, 2016 |
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Jan 5, 2016 18:36
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Aaaaaaand now the government deputies are simply leaving the building after like 20 minutes when the MUD didn't fall for their sabotage attempts.
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Jan 5, 2016 19:32
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Munin posted:Nice. Not petty and disrespectful at all. To be honest, the opposition deputies regularly did the same when they were a minority and the PSUV would walk all over them, with Diosdado wielding his power pettily. But this was just silly, especially when you consider they left while Borges while talking about how they would seek to grant land and property deeds and expand "social security" for the elderly; it just paints a bad picture. UPDATE: Allup, the new assembly president just confirmed rumors that he would be seeking a change in government via a method yet to be decided (either a recall referendum or a constitutional assembly) within six months starting from today. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Jan 5, 2016 |
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Jan 5, 2016 19:53
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wiregrind posted:I hope the MUD makes public how they are getting blocked after rightfully winning. I hope the information spreads. Adding to what Chuck said, one of the reasons why the PSUV threw a hissy fit and left the assembly early yesterday was exactly because it's not in their best interest to be televised while being publicly called out as the crooks they are. Let me explain, until yesterday, the only media that could transmit from inside the assembly was their official channel, which was packed with die-hard PSUV supporters. Now suddenly, every channel is allowed back in and there's fighting to interview assembly members and transmit everything the new assembly does because it's a historic moment. Suddenly you get money shots like the assembly member who called out the government for giving diplomatic passports to drug traffickers or the massive embezzlement of funds they took part in and all that poo poo is being broadcasted across the country with no censoring. All the channels and radio stations that would never raise their hands against chavismo for fear of getting shut down, are suddenly fearless because people want to see what goes down in there. Usually, government spokespersons would never debate anyone in public, or give statements to journalists that asked them real questions, so for the people who don't have the means (internet) or the time to bypass this blockade, that's all they know. Now, the legalese about the 112 assembly members may be lost in translation, but people certainly know that chavismo is trying to pull some fast poo poo because they've spent over a decade telling anyone who would listen how their voting system was perfect.
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Jan 6, 2016 18:32
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Today's session just kicked off and the government predictably went a step further and used the regulatory body for media to ban live transmissions. I'm watching via Periscope (https://www.periscope.tv/w/1MnxnVNQPboxO) and the last 3 deputies were just sworn in. Chavismo replied by saying that due to that action, all decisions by the assembly will be considered null and void. Now, the legal issue here is: the ruling by the Supreme Court used an illegal recording as evidence and furthermore, they have no authority to declare the elections void since the electoral council already proclaimed those 3 deputies as the winners. Once that occurred, parliamentary immunity kicked in and they could only be stripped of their power by a majority of the new assembly, which chavismo does not have. The PSUV assembly members just left the building again and now the MUD is moving onto the second order of the day: the illegitimacy of the Supreme Court itself. The constitutional crisis just started, folks.
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Jan 6, 2016 21:17
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Apparently they just threatened to leave the building, the PSUV members are still in there talking and a local channel is transmitting it live, so I don't know what the gently caress is going on. I'll update later when they get to talking about the Supreme Court. Diosdado is talking to Globovision saying they'll ask the Supreme Court to declare the Assembly in contempt and that no government body will recognize any laws that the Assembly passes due to its illegitimacy. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 21:45
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Hahahaha, the Assembly just passed a vote to allow all media access to the chambers and a PSUV deputy stood up to ask that it be noted the vote was null because of the 3 contested members, and was basically answered "They didn't vote, dumbass". Then they went "Well, it's still null because they were in the chambers". Despite the obvious implications of today's session, it's still a goldmine of zingers from side to side. It's like watching a telenovela.
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Jan 6, 2016 22:20
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ComradeCosmobot posted:The courts refuse to recognize anything the assembly does, the assembly refuses to recognize anything the courts do, and the collectivos run wild all the while. Probably. Well, Maduro's Habilitante powers already ran out and he can't be granted them again without the support of the assembly, but that's pretty much moot with the rest of the institutions on his side. The military also reiterated their support for the revolution yesterday when the Minister of Defense gave a little speech calling out the new assembly for removing photos of Chavez from the building, which is code for "Did I say I was impartial? Well, let me clarify". The new law granting the Central Bank leave to directly finance the government and the new economy VP are what's keeping me up at night right now, though. Giving a guy who literally doesn't believe in inflation a money printing press is the economic equivalent of handing him a nuke.
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Jan 8, 2016 16:52
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Nice, I'm finally going to experience what it's like to have a crude, abrasive, arrogant, authoritarian and thin-skinned National Assembly president who's part of a corrupt, clientelist political party with anti-democratic intentions. Oh, wait.
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Jan 9, 2016 00:51
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To me, what really highlights the degree of insanity of this entire situation is how bold-faced it is: one of the new express magistrates of the Supreme Court was a chavista candidate who lost an election days before, many of them don't even fulfill the academic criteria needed to apply for their posts, Diosdado (who is supposed to be a simple assembly member now, with no other post in government) talks to reporters as if he were the owner of the country "We'll simply not give the assembly any money and disregard any laws they pass." and the kicker, since they don't recognize the assembly, they're asking the Supreme Court to act as a legislative body in their stead.
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Jan 12, 2016 17:06
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I hadn't heard him talk in a while, Jesus, he's putting me to sleep. Loving Allup's "Please, shoot me now." face behind Maduro.
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Jan 15, 2016 23:20
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fnox posted:
Welcome to the club, once you've been trolled by Jimmy you're really a part of the thread. More on topic, the polls haven't been kind to Maduro for a long time now: during the buildup before the elections his approval ranged from 15-20% to 30% depending on the pollsters. If he hasn't been sent out to pasture already it's because chavismo doesn't have a single figure within its leadership with approval ratings high enough to challenge the opposition if presidentials were called early. AstraSage posted:I'm gonna take a small rest because he ups the ante from here on and start quoting many different sources I need to familiarize with... This is great work, thanks for making the effort to translate his speech. It was really something to watch that knowing it was on cadena nacional. BTW, for anyone interested in watching the National Assembly stuff live, there's an online channel called VivoPlay that never cuts the feed and has covered all of their sessions so far. It's a few bucks a month via Paypal to subscribe, and you can also pay in bolivares using MercadoPago. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Jan 17, 2016 |
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Jan 17, 2016 01:15
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fnox posted:The age of consent is 16. There's however something illegal somewhere in this whole story because I don't think nobody in their right mind would allow somebody to knowingly steal $300000 from them. Well, no one should have $300K and 40K euros lying around here, for starters. If he pushed it, it would've been a bit of an embarrassment and I guess he stole enough money not to care. The kicker is they also stole two pernils from his house.
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Jan 19, 2016 00:31
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My Imaginary GF posted:The dude who thinks inflation isn't real? No, that's Luis Salas, the current VP of Economy (also known as the newest dummy with his finger on the button).
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Jan 19, 2016 01:58
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fnox posted:It doesn't matter the National Assembly can remove ministers with a simple majority, they can also remove the vice president as a matter of fact but that is inconvenient at the moment. I suppose that this is some sort of political power play in that they try to force the National Assembly to remove these loving ministers so that the government can push the agenda that the opposition are the ones responsible for the economic crisis. If they approve the economic emergency "plan" they'd be complicit in sinking the ship, if they don't, they'll get blamed by the government for "not wanting to help out". Their time to deliberate runs out tomorrow and this way the ministers avoided having to explain that the aforementioned plan is bogus in front of the media. At this point, I don't think they have an agenda beyond forcing a confrontation and finding ways to "legally" bypass the assembly so they can continue stealing and enjoying immunity for a while longer.
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Jan 22, 2016 00:58
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Chuck Boone posted:This is from a few days ago now, but the Washington Post published an article titled "Venezuela is on the brink of complete economic collapse" that provides general overview of the country's economic situation at the start of this year. From what I've read, we basically would have to cease all imports in order to pay off the entirety of our debt this year given the current price of oil, so we're almost certainly going to default in the coming months. Off the top of my head I've read several times that pharmacies have at most two months worth of stock (with an scarcity level of approximately 80% for medicines, so that's non-critical stuff), the Guri hidroelectric plant is going to start croaking in two months as well if rains don't increase, and the stock of food keeps diminishing. We are so hosed. The Attorney General, Luisa Ortega Diaz actually did show up to speak in front of the National Assembly yesterday, much to my surprise. A lot of what she said was propaganda, but it wasn't antagonistic as one might expect. For example she said that approximately 17k people were murdered in Venezuela during the past year, when the real number is estimated to be around 27k. Still, she could've simply not showed up as every other government high-honcho has chosen to. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 16:48
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Kthulhu5000 posted:As someone who has been following this thread for the last few months, this is just...wow. It's apocalyptic-sounding. Well, if you ask them, they'll say they tried. On paper it sure seems like it, considering there's always new government plans to restore production levels, stories about new plants being built for X, Y, or Z product and new credits being approved for every half-baked project imaginable. In action, the massive levels of corruption they fostered in order to maintain control amongst the Chavista high-rollers ate into every single initiative. Factories and farms were taken away from their owners under the guise of giving them to the workers and instead every single expropriated company was simply driven to the brink of bankruptcy because they didn't even bother to keep people on who actually knew how to handle them. PDVSA is the perfect example to shed light on the sheer level of ineptitude that has plagued the Chavista administration, production levels are down 25% since Chavez took office almost two decades ago, they drove away all our best oil technicians, our international partners are now required to foot the bill for any joint explorations, and they involved the company in the laundering of billions of dollars. All of this during the biggest oil boom in Venezuela's history.
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Feb 4, 2016 01:17
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Hugoon Chavez posted:I've got four different sets of friends that are moving to Madrid this year, all of them staying at my place for a month to try and find work/a room they can rent. Two of them are gay couples of someone with a European nationality and someone without, looking to get married (here, obviously, since Venezuela hasn't legalized gay marriage) so they can both stay, while the others have no easy access to residency and are probably going to live as illegal aliens for a long while. Hey, I have a couple of Venezuelan friends who are moving to Madrid to get married this year too, small world! Chuck Boone posted:[*] Corn flour (1 kg): Subsidized price: Bs. 19 - Street price: Bs. 400 These prices are pretty up to date, except coffee which now goes for Bs 2000 per kg at least in the places where I've found it. I either have to go to the street sellers, call my bachaquera friend, or try a local bakery which sells it in clear plastic bags paid in cash under the table, it's like some sort of orwellian drug deal.
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Feb 9, 2016 17:41
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Woolie Wool posted:That's worse than the per capita GDP of even the poorest countries in the entire world! Hence the eternal queues. If you see a queue, there's a subsidized product being sold there. At least in Caracas (and I assume other cities big enough) there's plenty of small stores and upscale supermarkets which don't carry any of those and where you can still shop "decently" if you have enough money. The real problem is the small towns where everyone shops at the same establishments because there's simply not enough to go around. I haven't heard of starvation cases yet, but I'm assuming we can't be too far off since inventories aren't supposed to last much longer and we're running on fumes.
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Feb 10, 2016 16:25
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