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Hi, longtime lurker of the last thread. What are the opinions of Venezuelan's on the oil policies of Maduro? From what I understand, during the last oil boom, Venezuela became really inefficient at drilling wells. Supposedly, an average rig went from 7/year to 3 wells/year. Do you have any insight to the veracity of such claims and/or the reasoning behind the decline (this is precrash numbers). Also, what are your opinions (as well as the general public) to the relationship between Venezuela and China insofar as oil financing goes. It looks like China is getting hugely favorable terms.
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Sep 7, 2015 16:27
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Nintendo Kid posted:Might it also have been starting to run out of suitable locations? It's possible. It would probably make more sense to use less rigs in that case. However, Venezuela has the 'largest' oil reserves in the world. Even if you only look at conventional sources, they are pretty significant.
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Sep 7, 2015 19:29
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I know speculation is almost always a losing game, but what are the possible outcomes here? Can Maduro win the next election? Can he 'win' the next election? What happens if the price of oil does not recover? Can any government run Venezuela without higher commodity prices? How long can Maduro maintain control without major policy change?
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Sep 16, 2015 03:33
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Thanks for the responses. If PSUV cheats the election or calls them off entirely, how do you think the Venezuelans population is going to react?
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Sep 16, 2015 19:43
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I was reading in FT that Venezuela is precipitously low and may run out of funds by Q1 2016. Losing the upcoming election might be desirable right now.
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Nov 1, 2015 17:16
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So how bad is the impending humanitarian crisis going to be if the government cannot import food?
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Nov 2, 2015 02:29
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http://m.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151029/defense-minister-confirms-that-venezuela-will-buy-12-sukhoi-aircraft
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Nov 2, 2015 03:22
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Uh, there is one way Venezuela can easily get out if this situation. $100/bbl oil. Is there any historical examples of what happens to Venezuela oil output during social upheaval?
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Nov 2, 2015 11:55
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Chuck Boone posted:I agree. I realize the amount stolen must be a relatively small amount compared to what you've pointed out. I can't remember which book I read this in, but in the early-mid 2000s, Chavez created a fund with PDVSA revenues with the purpose of using it as an off-the-books piggy banks to pay for social services, support for overseas sympathizers, etc. Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Anyway, that's a part of it: money that comes in to the country, gets put into an invisible account, and then ends up being used who knows how. I don't know the profitability of Venezuelan plays but it seems to be the only industry separating the country form Haiti. I
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Nov 2, 2015 22:01
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http://en.mercopress.com/2015/10/31/chavistas-will-not-surrender-the-revolution-even-in-defeat-in-december-s-elections-warned-maduro More informed opinions please shed light
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Nov 4, 2015 00:37
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I know orwellian vets thrown too casually sometimes, but Maduro seems to be trying really hard. I appreciate the insight.
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Nov 4, 2015 03:40
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So is this a directly sanctioned PSUV attack or just extreme PSUV supporters acting alone. Either possibility is pretty scary if they lose the election.
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Nov 27, 2015 15:43
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Gen. Ripper posted:
If only 25% of the population is allowed to vote the PSUV will take the whole thing. What's the news on the state of exception deal?
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Dec 2, 2015 14:47
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There is this 100/167 number being kicked around which is awkwardly below 60%.
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Dec 7, 2015 04:38
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The daily Venezuela news cycle isn't complete without Jimmy. So how does a showdown between the courts and the assembly play out?
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Jan 6, 2016 23:00
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Anyone care to share?
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Jan 16, 2016 04:29
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El Hefe posted:We are actually losing money on each barrel of crude oil sold Wait, really? I was under the assumption that Venezuelan crude was a sub $15/bbl production costs. It should be even less with a weak currency. I can't imagine Venezuelan crude being that much of a discount.
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Jan 25, 2016 02:16
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Do they print anything other than 100 notes currently? The idea of printing mountains of 1 Bs notes is humorous.
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Apr 27, 2016 17:59
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Id pay for a one way ticket to Venezuela if someone made sure he got on the plane.
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May 14, 2016 20:02
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Sinteres posted:The best case scenario is oil skyrocketing again and making all the problems magically disappear. This isnt the best case scenario either because another crash would be just around the corner.
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May 18, 2016 16:04
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Wont the CNE have to invalidate 9/10 signatures to deny the recall?
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Jun 3, 2016 17:13
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Chuck Boone posted:I'm horrible at math, but the MUD handed about 2.8 million signatures when the CNE asked for I think 197,000. In any case, it's obvious that the CNE is trying its hardest to throw out as many as it can. Dismissing 10 signatures at a time because a cursive "u" kind of looks like a "o" is ridiculous. jeez... please get out of there venegoons.
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Jun 3, 2016 23:55
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Labradoodle posted:Yep and that's the only funny thing when it comes to this guy. evil guy with a stick threatens people while his leader gets ready to dissolve the assembly? Ive seen this movie before.
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Jun 13, 2016 17:29
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do the validations meet the requirement of a certain % per state? I thought that avenue was the one persued by the PSUV
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Jun 26, 2016 03:38
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how invested is the military in the status quo? I get that they are being bought essentially, but can they maintain their position in a forced regime change or are they going to stick with the PSUV until the end?
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Jul 5, 2016 01:12
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Sinteres posted:I still think the US might start paying attention to what's going on in our own back yard after the election, but the days of unilateral cowboy imperialism in Latin America are probably dead, so any pressure would require buy-in from Venezuela's neighbors. That might not mean much in a status quo scenario, but I don't think Maduro would last very long if he went full Assad. The military may be loyal right now, but there aren't any major sectarian or ethnic divisions for Maduro to exploit in order to assure they'll stick with him to the bitter end. I just don't see why the military would remain unified around him once the order came to fire on the people, especially if the international community starts to wake up to what's going on there. Going full syria also requires having neighbors to prop you up. I dont see Russia and Iran willing (or able) to go galavanting around S America.
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Sep 2, 2016 02:58
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Sinteres posted:Would oil going up again save the PSUV/Venezuela at this point, or is the death spiral too locked in and too many future profits tied up in debt for a sudden injection of cash to fix? It depends on what "going up" means. Unfortunately, even the most bullish oil speculation doesnt seen a price return for 18-24 months and very few people predict REALLY high prices like we saw in 2014. Another downside is how long can a run last? There are tons of American companies chomping at the bit to turn wells online and another glut isnt out of the question (even before this one ends). In reality, most of the oil producing world is probably waiting for Venezuelan production to cease as a means for prices to increases
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Sep 6, 2016 18:43
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Even if Venezuala does get an election, do you really expect the PSUV to give up power? Fear of retribution from a regime change has to be pretty present in the minds of the PSUV.
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Sep 27, 2016 13:44
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El Hefe posted:OPEP just agreed to cut down production from 33.2m barrels a day to a whooping 32.5m a day. That 700k barrels per day is around what the production surplus is. It's not going to send prices skyrocketing, but it may keep things stabilized for a while. I think youre right though, the world is waiting for Venezuala to collapse for good times in the oil market.
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Oct 1, 2016 14:21
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How does one set an inflation goal while simultaneously dismissing the existence of inflation.
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Oct 1, 2016 17:34
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I know MIGF posts some wacky poo poo, but he might have his I Told You So moment when civil war breaks out.
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Oct 23, 2016 18:01
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Can anyone drop a quick summary on the individual opposition leaders/parties?
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Oct 31, 2016 15:22
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Thanks for the write up, fnox.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:43
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How can I get one of these 100,000 notes?
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Nov 3, 2017 04:35
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Celexi posted:not much, they have been exchanging it in quite the big quantities to pay for obligations, weeks or days ago they traded a few tons for cash to germany. Is that the cash they received as part of the gold swap? Iirc, they didn't even get the remaining 500 million and it's just being used to cover debt liabilities.
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Nov 13, 2017 13:23
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Saladman posted:Well, hope is alive right now in Zimbabwe with the ongoing military coup, so many something magical will happen to Venezuela some day, like a corrupt military dictatorship which is somehow better than the current basket of assholes. Mugabe was purging the military supporters of his former VP. The military said "stop that, or else". He didn't stop.
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Nov 15, 2017 15:24
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I'm no economist, but at some point does it matter how devalued the Bolivar is? Imports are all brought in on dollars and there is a stream of hard currency from oil exports. At some point, is it just de facto USD?
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Nov 18, 2017 17:29
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Saladman posted:Perez is doing a good job making himself out to seem like a real-life Batman. He's either going to be executed or become a future leader of Venezuela at this point.
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Dec 19, 2017 21:58
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I'm surprised that the increasing price of oil hasn't slowed inflation or increased flexibility of the PSUV. I've seen reports that venezuala production had tanked in the last 3 months. Is that a symptom of infrastructure issues on the upstream side? If they continue to have production outputs, they are going to miss out on rising oil prices.
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Jan 3, 2018 22:16
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Every time I see news like that, I think: this is the straw that breaks the camels back. I've been doing that for 3 years now.
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Jan 13, 2018 00:43
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