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Sub Par posted:Ryan Mallett is starting for the Texans this week. He looked decent last week in 6 minutes of work: 8/13, 98 yards and a TD. Granted it was at the end of the game and not necessarily garbage time but close enough that the Chiefs were playing a pretty simple defense. That said, the Texans play the Panthers next week whose D is not nearly as good as the Chiefs. I'm going to try Mallett in one of my leagues but I'm a little worried, the Panthers D is much better than people give them credit for. Carson Palmer is either 6k or under I think he's the far better play against a swiss cheese Chicago secondary. Alfred Blue also isn't running the ball well so I think Mallett struggles until Foster returns.
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Sep 17, 2015 02:05
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Sub Par posted:Good points. In the end I think I'll stack him with Hopkins in one lineup and roll the dice. You aren't alone, I did the same. It's a dollar so it can't hurt! Good luck!
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Sep 17, 2015 02:14
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JoshTheStampede posted:Hilton might actually play so if he does be ready to switch out Moncreif for someone. I'd keep Moncrief. Revis is likely all over Hilton and Cromartie should not be playing so it will probably be a backup on Moncrief or he will play the slot. Andre Johnson is hot garbage right now and can't get separation and Luck will be throwing the ball a whole lot so Moncrief has some serious value especially how cheap he is.
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Sep 20, 2015 03:50
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coronaball posted:Under you. Subbed under this link: mine is below and also my Draftkings link for anyone that wants a free megamillions ticket for next week. Fantasydraft: https://www.fantasydraft.com/play/yuzenn Draftkings: https://www.draftkings.com/r/mdubb354 poo poo i'll even paypal you 5 bucks if you join and put 5 bucks in Draftkings.
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Sep 20, 2015 22:54
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I've got a bomb lineup with a Rothlisberger - Williams - Brown - Miller stack but Lynch shat the bed and I had Fitzgerald as my flex but I removed him =/ Ah well it's still going to win me money but the potential!!
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Sep 21, 2015 12:23
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Sub Par posted:Yeah, that was a pretty brutal week. It looks like I did well enough in the double-ups that I will break even though, as long as nothing insane happens tonight. My Mallett/Hopkins stack bombed. Jeremy Hill, Abdullah, Lynch: I'm going to be much more conservative with a couple of Mariota/Carr lineups to just hedge my bets on another week of bizarro football. I cannot resist another week of Big Ben in GGP's though, but I'm stay away from some of the most expensive RB's until I see things come back down to earth, consistency wise. Lynch/Hill/Forsett in favorable matchups was the difference in getting into the money in easily a half dozen entries. I'm about to go all in on backs on teams with great offensive lines - Starks/Williams/Lewis/Freeman(if Coleman's injury sidelines him for a while)/D.Johnson[Ari]. If Murray/Lynch/Abdullah/Forsett showed us anything it is that the offensive line is much more important than the skill and ability of the back in most instances (outside of freaks of nature like AP and whatnot). Yuzenn fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Sep 21, 2015 |
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Sep 21, 2015 16:04
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. The one thing I had going for me was a Manning/OBJ stack in a couple places.
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Sub Par posted:Man I had a good sweat in a couple $10 double-ups there. Cashed in both, by 1.16 points in one and 1.2 in another. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS! Moncrief won me 50 bucks. I'm still going to hate Lynch forever from keeping me from getting more. Ah well this is 5x what I put in so I'm happy
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Sep 22, 2015 04:48
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:Poker got banned pretty much out of the blue with just a couple upset congressmen sticking a clause in a completely unrelated bill that nobody read. The extreme advertising that DraftKings and FanDuel are doing this season is picking up a lot of eyes and there's going to be some special interest groups not too happy. I hope I'm wrong since it's fun, but it just seems like a big target for anti-gambling groups. The originator of the bill to change the laws involving DFS is Pallone and he is the congressman in my great state, which just so happens to be so anti gambling it's crazy. The loophole for DFS is enormous but honestly is completely Congress is notoriously slow in catching up with anything internet based and related things and the lobbists for the sports teams would NEVER let them seriously muck up the law. What I do see happening is Congress figuring out a way to get in on a cut of the money by added hurdles and taxes to those companies who run DFS. Outright illegal though? I think this type of thing brings legalized gambling closer to the forefront than farther....
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Sep 22, 2015 12:15
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OrangeKing posted:
Forgive my mistype but I meant Legalized sports gambling, not overall gambling. The Governor has made a pretty big line in the sand about Sports Gambling even when the efforts in the State Legislature has tried to open up the rules to allow for it at casinos to start and then to allow residents to join sports betting websites. All of the efforts to legalize sports betting got struck down by the Third Circuit Court and currently is not able to be appealed. The State just cannot get around the PASPA law and FYI those major sports leagues sued NJ (and won in 2013), not the other way around...they want the status quo the exact way it is and if they are not getting a cut no one else will be. The remaining two options are getting Congress to 1) repeal the law (and thus the ban), which is not even in the realm of possible or, 2) petition the Supreme Court - which is possible if other states get behind the petition but most likely won't result in a win for sports betting. And while yes there is no bill, Pallone just intiated a call for the the hearing about DFS sites. It's not going to go very far though. Lesniak is also pretty vocal about the issue but without the implicit blessing of the Governor and other states co-petitioning the high court I'm not going to hold my breath for it happening in NJ. The State Legislature has tripped on its own feet in getting a concise and unified opinion about sports betting, and has had opposition from the Gov office for years. I do agree with you in the fact that they just want to wrap their head around the idea more than stop it, but DFS is much easier to rationalize and prove as completely legal than traditional sportsbooking and betting. Yuzenn fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Sep 22, 2015 |
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Sep 22, 2015 21:44
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Santheb posted:Which of the "value" running backs do you guys think are the best plays this week? I like Woodhead a lot because he gets PPR points as a running back and sometimes does get goal line touches. I usually like anyone playing JAX but they've been stingy lately about running backs so I'd say that as long as Matt Jones doesnt leech touches Morris will be a great play as well.
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Sep 22, 2015 22:45
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VietCampo posted:Joined a 6$ contest on DK with Jets play the Eagles this week....
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Sep 23, 2015 02:03
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Varg posted:I started out with a similar looking lineup today for a $5 draftkings contest, and it's morphed into this now It is risk v reward for stacks, but if you get a good stack it catapults you into pretty high ranks. The conventional wisdom on if you are banking on players (outside of RB)...you might as well bank on their QB too since they have to get the ball thrown to them. For example your lineup is good and i'm not advocating for any changes because I am no expert and am giving my total anecdotal opinion. Anyone who says they are an expert at DFS is lying and those who are winning big are either stackers or reaaaaaaaally lucky, but imagine if you had Jimmy Graham in your TE position.....every touchdown or yards he gets also double dips into R.Wilsons score. Now imagine having Marshawn Lynch as well....he wont double dip into Wilsons total rushing but there is the potential for a screen or shot pass going for a TD and then it is a double dip. It is risky but (in my two year DFS experience) more likely that a stud stack is going to win you at least some money. Brady/Edelman/Gronk is a stack that I have at LEAST one of every week because Brady is good, Edelman is a PPR gem and Gronk scores almost a TD per game in his career statistics....from there you have to pick out what cheap players are likely to go off (hint, it's woodhead type backs who get a ton of throws their way). You also have two packers....you could always shed a couple bucks here and there and just run with Aaron Rodgers who is probably more likely to have an amazing DFS score than Wilson. Things to keep in mind when creating lineups.
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Sep 23, 2015 21:24
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JoshTheStampede posted:Is there accepted wisdom on what types of games one should be playing? In general, I think I will be playing 80% cash and 20% GPP on any given week, but of those cash games, what % should be H2H vs 50/50 or doubleups? I'm a new fish and scared of H2H but people seem to rely on it heavily. I don't do fanduel anymore because you can't edit lineups like you can on draftkings but stay way from h2h unless you have a tried and true lineup generation tool and a huge bankroll. Most of the people on the site are former poker players and they have no problem preying on h2h teams. Double ups aren't bad but you need to have some solid teams being input to stay above board on your bankroll because it's so tempting to go for the big double ups. GPP is obviously a crapshoot but if you bankroll manage throughout a variety of game types you should do ok. There are quarter games that award 20 dollar tickets so I try to play like 2-3 dollars from there and have that to help my personal bankroll
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Sep 23, 2015 23:06
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JoshTheStampede posted:Oh god now Lacy might play (on monday so gotta make that decision by Sunday morning) and Lynch is a gametime decision so everyone's RB lineups are hosed up. I'm staying away from a hobbled Lacy against a great front in KC. Lynch is going to cause me so much pain if he doesn't play but if he isn't 100% he might not be a good play anyway....
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Sep 26, 2015 02:43
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CompeAnansi posted:So here was my main lineup for the Thursday-Monday slate: Nice man, freeman/matthews combo kept me from losing money this week. Granted it's only 14 bucks but it is better than losing money. I went too big on Woodhead and Big Ben and it bit me in the rear end =/
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Sep 28, 2015 02:39
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I needs more millionaire entry tickets....if you don't have a draftkings account yet and want to try it out, I will paypal you 5 bucks if you create an account and deposit the required 5 bucks. PM for infos.
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Sep 30, 2015 02:54
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JoshTheStampede posted:Can't you just use alt email accounts? Not really since if I win a prize, I still have to be me especially for tax purposes and the alt email won't matter. They also block any accounts from the same payment method. Plus I hear you have to present to them your drivers license if you win over 1k and try to withdraw, so can't just make a bunch of alt accounts... Yuzenn fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Sep 30, 2015 |
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Sep 30, 2015 03:03
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CompeAnansi posted:I'm a bit concerned about Randle this week. This is how many yards he got on each of his carries on his 'huge' game last week: 28, 37, 20, 1, -1, 1, 9, 4, 1, 0, 1, -1, -4, 2, -2. Sure it adds up to 85 yards and 3 TDs, but it looks to me more like he got lucky and broke a couple big runs on the first drive and then was bottled up not accomplishing much other than punching in a couple 1 yard TDs. And that was against the 32nd ranked Atlanta defense against the run in adjusted fantasy points allowed. This week he's facing a still soft but much better 20th ranked New Orleans defense. Just remember that NO cannot defend anyone so there is a good chance he will fall into two touchdowns in any event.
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Oct 1, 2015 17:53
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JoshTheStampede posted:Yeah I'm not sure how I feel about that. He used non public knowledge of DK ownership to make an educated guess about FD ownership. On the one hand that's fine, he's not allowed to play on DK so he has to play somewhere. I also feel torn about this too. I mean there is a WEALTH of information out there for you to make informed decisions about your lineups but they are well after the games are finished and that is fine and part of the entire industry. I'm of the opinion that DFS site employees should not be able to play other DFS sites because it's likely that trends are similar no matter which site you use and insider info is insider info if it can't also be shared with the public for the same edge. And as for policing it? Good luck with policing something that isn't even near understood by policing agencies yet....people are at the whim of whatever these sites are doing or not doing that is underhanded/unfair. The only way to hurt them is to not give them money, since they can fold up at any time.
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Oct 5, 2015 15:43
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SurgicalOntologist posted:He received the ownership numbers after the FanDuel lineups locked so it seems unlikely that they helped him win. I will change my entire mind if they show these logs they claim to have of him receiving the data after 2pm when his rosters locked. Otherwise it's fishy considering the amount of winning this one individual has been doing. And what ownership website is updated within an hour of locking? If that were the case we could make BANK on DK late swaps.
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Oct 6, 2015 03:42
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That Charles Clay touchdown that got called back cost me hundreds of bucks, and Melvin Gordon not getting a rushing TD at the drat ONE yard line also screwed me. Up for the week though, and the sweet Edelman/Brady/Gronk/Lewis stack is back! Time to do some cash games.
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Oct 6, 2015 13:24
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SurgicalOntologist posted:I know I come off like a shill or apologist, but I think banning employees from playing other sites is a bad move in the long run. Obviously it needs to happen now, until their data integrity policies are improved, but I don't think it's a good thing for this to have to happen. I can only speak for Draftkings playing because I play there mostly but the sharks are setting the prices and designing new contests, I just didn't think the Sharks were partially DFS employees, I figured they were just the rest of the ex-poker players. And for season long leagues, who cares? These aren't being managed through the websites, they are being managed by off website league managers. There isn't nearly as much daily money being exchanged and also is a much more casual medium. I don't think I'd care in that instance.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:34
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railroad terror posted:I played the Monday/Thursday night game with $50k to first place -- added in Jaelen Strong at the last minute. Even with 135k people and only two games, Strong was only owned by 0.4% of players. Incredible. Unfortunately it didn't matter in the end because I picked the Houston D instead of the Detroit D (22 points to 1 point). If I had picked Detroit, I'd have ended up with a nice $500 payday. Ohhh well. The good news is that almost every mashup of those monday/thursday lineups most people had at least cashed in if you had Dhop on the teams and DIDN'T chose the texans D. I never expected to get 9 bucks from those poo poo lineups but gently caress it, i'll take it.
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Oct 9, 2015 15:11
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Dopple Dabbler posted:Anyone interested in a $10 league on either Draftkings or Fanduel for the weekend? I'm surprised I haven't seen any goon leagues yet. I don't think they make financial sense to play a 10 dollar league if it isn't a double up or 50/50 and that's why no one plays. On an economy of scale you could enter 10 one dollar tournaments or just do a 10 dollar double up....
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Oct 10, 2015 18:57
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It's always the "don't think too much don't give a gently caress" lineups that do well.
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Oct 11, 2015 21:18
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New rule, include Freeman and Hopkins into every lineup ever.
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Oct 12, 2015 01:30
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CompeAnansi posted:Yeah Freeman is looking like the real deal. I backed off of him a little bit and didn't put him in every lineup this week and put Charles in instead. Whoops. But who could predict an ACL tear early in the game... Freeman and Julio are drat LOCKS against the Saints defense...Thursday game be damned.
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Oct 12, 2015 04:52
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:I've been using FantasyPros for NFL projections since it's free and seemed to be okay last week. However they don't do any Defense projections, are there any sites that publish defense fantasy projections? Just looking for a way to find the defenses that are going to put up 10-20 points on their own. Defenses are hard because of the rules really favoring the offense....the only consistent ones are the ones that generate turnovers. Right now the Broncos are the best DST on daily fantasy followed by the Panthers and then from there it's an absolute crapshoot. Injuries seem to plague the NFL as well so many defenses we thought would be good are absolute busts (Texans/KC) Defenses against turnover prone teams are good choices (GB at home vs SD or Bengals on the road against the EJ Manuel led Bills)
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Oct 15, 2015 20:28
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Sup fellow noob Freeman is like 66+% owned in some of the 50/50 so I'm a bit worried cause last week I had Dhop and still got knocked out in some of them Here's to hoping that the rest of my teams do well. Having Freeman as a starter helps!
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Oct 16, 2015 15:03
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but its been a fun few hours.
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Yeah, the one I'm in only 11/50 people didn't take him. This is my team and I think I can pull off a top 50 finish That lineup looks fine...I'm just worried that my Dalton/Lewis/Edelman reliance this week bites me in the rear end. I mean I probably have 40+ lineups in between the two sites set and at least one of them are in probably 35 of them.....
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Oct 16, 2015 21:16
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jabro posted:If history is any indication NE players are your best bet for major points. Brady loves lighting up the Colts defense. I'm heavily playing Brady with variations of Blount/Lewis/Gronk/Edelman this week. Yeah I have a lot of Gronk as well but he's a pretty solid lock at the TE position. Otherwise the only sure fire bet I saw was Gates. I have some Brady but the Edelman/Gronk/Brady stack is super expensive and I think it's going to be a tough week for non pass catching backs so I'm saving on either Brady or Gronk and going for Bell/Foster/AP and I already had Freeman. My interesting play of the week is Sam Bradford....if he can't go the gently caress off on a Giants team that is SO decimated at every position I don't even know what to think about football anymore. I'm not stacking him with anyone because he spreads the ball around a lot. Maybe some Ertz on the cheap for some GGPs. Outside of the Watson surprise I think I have enough exposure to the people who are most likely to go off...totally faded Juilo and Ryan outside of 1 lineup and I think Antonio Brown is another expensive fade. Dependent on the injury report I might be fading ODB as well but he could be an interesting play if he is a game time decision for Monday.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:01
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Next on the list of must adds to every lineup: DHop, jesus christ
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Oct 18, 2015 20:51
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Lacy and Lewis cost me literal hundreds of dollars...... I'm just doing 50/50's and double ups from now on...I can't stand going from 300th place down to over 2000 each week
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Oct 19, 2015 04:58
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Marshmallow Blue posted:what are your guys' thoughts on Freeman and Hopkins this week in 50/50s? They cost an insane amount of money and I can't imagine building a halfway decent lineup with such a cost up front. Dolphins secondary doesn't scare me and Nuk might break the targets record this year...he's good for at least 10 targets a game so just on PPR alone he's a cash must play. Falcons are playing the Titans who just let Lamar Miller and Jonas Gray run all over them so Freeman is also worth every penny. Freeman is moreso important than Hopkins because the amount of good scoring RB's is growing thinner and thinner with a lot of teams still having issues with injuries/runningback committees/starters being hurt. Freeman is running like a man possessed and he knows a screw up could cost him his job. Teams also can't just stack the box with Jones being a focal part of the offense. He's good to go all season. The problem is finding the second RB that will be guaranteed points with him. Lewis/Peterson and Bell all shat the bed this week and Lynch underperformed.
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Oct 19, 2015 20:05
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Gurley you better not screw me!!
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Oct 25, 2015 12:05
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:Bend over and oil up sweetheart. He was the chalk play for sure....that browns defense lets anyone run on them. I think he's gotta be like 60% owned this week if not more.
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Oct 25, 2015 15:13
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Outside of going HEAVY on Hopkins and totally forgetting to swap out Maclin it's been a good week. Gurley delivered and I had enough shares of Miller and various Dolphins players that i'm in the money nicely. Still got Palmer Fitz Brown and some Steve Smith Jr left in most leagues and Palmer is my cash QB who needs only 10 points right now. 
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Oct 26, 2015 04:36
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CompeAnansi posted:I'll just note that the generally recommended percentages if you want to do this for the long haul are to use 20% of your entry monies MAX on GPPs. My own rule of thumb is that I need to be able to make enough if I win my current average percentage of cash games to cover my GPP entries assuming they all lose. So, for example, $20 of entries gives me $17 for entries that have a 50% chance of payout. Winning 65% of those gives me ~$20 back. That, then, gives me $3 for GPP entries. Now I don't follow this exactly because I also play some double ups and triple ups, but it gives you the general idea: I want my cash entries to be able to fund my spending on GPPs. Yeah you should have some cash flow for these games and a mix of h2h and double and triple ups is good to have. My bank roll started at 25 bucks and I'm at just under 300 now and every week I put just about half of my roll into cash lineups in order to keep my roll going into the next week. I will say though, the guy who said play the smallest entry possible was super correct...I entered something like 20 bucks of quarter entries and made probably 60ish bucks this week. If Charles Clay/Hopkins/Steelers defense would have shown up i'd be in the hundreds over quarter entries. Also join up the Thursday GPPS as the payouts are basically the same but the overall pool of entrants are smaller.
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Oct 27, 2015 19:11
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Marshmallow Blue posted:I've got 8 Line-ups across 21 Entries. Part of that is to reduce exposure if a player flops, but some of it is due to me playing several different slates based on finding some lower win opponents in H2Hs. Numberfire or fantasypros has lineup generators that you can use for free and then I think about ownership levels and matchups. GPP's require low ownership to hit it real big so usually it's the combination of sleeper QB and or defense going off that make it big....last week it happened to be the ENTIRE dolphins team but that was unusual and probably not repeatable this season. Houston seems to give up TONS of points to anyone so Mettenberger might be a really sneaky high value play. Or he could suck....it's all a crapshoot!
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Oct 28, 2015 16:06
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CompeAnansi posted:He sucked last week. He was an amazing value on Yahoo, but he still didn't hit value because he didn't even hit 10 points. That's true but Houston has been REALLY bad this season. All except one game this season they have let up 3 touchdowns to each team (including a team with hasselbeck as their QB) and in two of them games they have had over six touchdowns scored on them in a game. They cannot defend the pass at all and even a schlub like Mettenberger has enough weapons around him to seemingly be able to be a very cheap pickup. ****This is a risky pick, let me be clear******* but! if this pans out and he does what every other QB has done to them this season, he's going to win people a LOT of money because of his ownership levels and price. Yuzenn fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Oct 28, 2015 |
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Oct 28, 2015 16:52
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