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Let's say the buildup of Russian SOF (45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment)/DNR Fighters actually goes as plan and the rebels take Mariupol 100%, what is the next step for the world? Few Outcomes that I see as possible US Starts directly sending Ukraine lethal support AKA MANPADS, M4s, Ammo etc the good poo poo Crimea gets a land-bridge and starts being directly "part" of Russia. However russia is building a highway into Crimea already so this may not happen Kiev actually mobilizes a full on assault of the DNR instead of this lanky poo poo they do Worst outcome I forsee being possible: Nato steps in (This would be the start of WW3) US Intervenes directly with actual boots on the ground
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Oct 14, 2015 23:56
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LeoMarr posted:Let's say the buildup of Russian SOF (45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment)/DNR Fighters actually goes as plan and the rebels take Mariupol 100%, what is the next step for the world? Is this a post from Spring 2014 that got lost in the time stream?
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Oct 14, 2015 23:57
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Ardennes posted:Is this a post from Spring 2014 that got lost in the time stream? No because it's still happening. There's been Battle-tank and SP-A buildup in Novoazovs'k
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Oct 15, 2015 00:00
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LeoMarr posted:No because it's still happening. There's been Battle-tank and SP-A buildup in Novoazovs'k I am looking at Twitter and Google News, not seeing it. Have a link?
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Oct 15, 2015 00:16
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Ardennes posted:I am looking at Twitter and Google News, not seeing it. Have a link? https://twitter.com/Legioner_sniper/status/654177877794115584 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/12-october-oct-10-osce-uav-continued-to-record-mil-equipment?ll=47.67324971552512;35.94417080078118&zoom=8 https://twitter.com/BuTaJIu4eK/status/653970377463496704
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Oct 15, 2015 00:18
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Get Putin to come to the table. You need a determination to control history. Syrian and Ukrainian provinces could have internationally-supervised referendums - but countries also can vote on the presence of US bases (Most will likely vote to keep a US presence). Give and take - actually demonstrate secular, democratic principles on a global scale. End the madness. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZODtmaHIQng
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Oct 15, 2015 00:21
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LeoMarr posted:https://twitter.com/Legioner_sniper/status/654177877794115584 According to those links it is maybe a battalion worth of men and equipment, something to notice but not exactly an invasion force. The Russians would probably need 2-3 brigades to take Mariupol. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 00:22
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Ardennes posted:According to those links it is maybe a battalion worth of men and equipment, something to notice but not exactly an invasion force. The Russians would probably need 2-3 brigades to take Mariupol. Well they wouldn't just straight up go for Mariupol, It would be encircled and sieged since that's what the rebels have been doing every time they take a strategic objective.
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Oct 15, 2015 00:30
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McDowell posted:Get Putin to come to the table. You need a determination to control history. Syrian and Ukrainian provinces could have internationally-supervised referendums - but countries also can vote on the presence of US bases (Most will likely vote to keep a US presence). Give and take - actually demonstrate secular, democratic principles on a global scale. End the madness. Prior to the syrian air campaign it looked like russia basically lost the war in Ukraine, progress screeched to a halt. If you look at the tempo of the DNR representatives they are preaching the ceasefire like theres no tomorrow instead of the old pre-october rhetoric of taking Kiev. Russian air-waves are being flooded with Pro-Syrian air campaign messages about bombing ISIS and poo poo. Russia's entire objective in syria is to be allowed at the big boy negotiations table. Even China has started sending aid to Iraq and running drills for their own bombing campaign. Russia has been bombing Homs, Hama, Damascus and Daraa. ISIS is nowhere near any of these areas of operation. The FSA however is concentrated in those 4 cities/surrounding provinces which is why Russia is bombing the poo poo out of them and causing huge civilian casualties. Turkey gave the FSA 700+ TOWs and the US has sent 50 Tons of aide to the FSA control zones with ensured delivery to the right people instead of ISIS or Al-Nusra.
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Oct 15, 2015 00:35
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The already miniscule amount of poo poo the west gave about the Ukraine has basically evaporated in light of the current situation in Syria. Maybe some more limp wristed economic sanctions but probably not even that. Crimea is now Russia for all intents and purposes and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Other parts of the east would be icing on the cake and beyond done strongly worded U.N. resolutions nobody important actually gives a poo poo. LeoMarr posted:Prior to the syrian air campaign it looked like russia basically lost the war in Ukraine, progress screeched to a halt. Again, it was always about crimea, which was basically a smashing success. Russia only lost Ukraine if you don't have a clue what the war was actually about- they retained a crucial base and caused the Ukraine to basically go bankrupt, ensuring that their path to the eu or (lol) NATO is decades away. And they did it all for very cheap on a relative scale, Russia's current financial issues are almost entirely from the price of oil plunging, the sanctions are basically a slap on the wrist and could even be counterproductive in the sense that it provides putin something to use to shore up domestic support.
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Oct 15, 2015 01:19
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tsa posted:The already miniscule amount of poo poo the west gave about the Ukraine has basically evaporated in light of the current situation in Syria. Maybe some more limp wristed economic sanctions but probably not even that. Well yes, Crimea isn't even on the airwaves anymore. The Little Green Men aren't being discussed by the west at all, Crimea was a victory. But I think Putin wants more like this:  Before he's done with Ukraine. This also may be a big impeasement dillema in 4 months when Russia either renews their Syrian campaign or leaves syria (As they said they would bomb for 4 months might be RT propaganda). But 4 months is a pretty long span with concides with the DNR's announcement of Consctription, 4 months is a reasonable amount of time to go from civ to soldier especially when trained by Russian SOF. 4 months of bombing gives them time to build up the DNR/LNR armed forces before assaulting Mariupol with divisions, not brigades.
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Oct 15, 2015 02:17
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Does this need a separate thread though? The EE thread has this pretty well-covered.
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Oct 15, 2015 03:15
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