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sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Your Dunkle Sans posted:


Also, any idea if this will be the warmest year on record yet? It's in the 70s here in the Midwest, it's messing with my head. :psyduck:


If it makes you feel better, this is the result of an el nino event and not really climate change

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sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Nice piece of fish posted:

We need to change all of it. We need a paradigm shift, and a big one. Luckily, this isn't impossible at least from a historical point of view. But there needs to be a catalyst, and what that might be I don't know.

That catalyst, like most catalysts that have spurred change, will probably involve a lot of death and suffering. Not just any death and suffering mind you -- but the type of death and suffering that encompasses all economic classes. I mean, it took the deaths of many high-profile rich people (and hundreds of not-rich-people) on the world's biggest ocean liner for us to collectively decide that hey, maybe having lifeboats for everybody on board would be a good idea.

I expect that we will have a similar catalyzing event for climate change in the (near-ish) future. That is, a singular rapid-onset disaster that proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the climate is getting really loving weird, and, simultaneously, causes a lot of casualties indiscriminate of class or status. An event that people, decades in the future, will point to as the moment when humanity 'woke up' to the problem. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina, I think, were harbingers of such an event, but neither of them were as catalyzing for climate change policy as the Titanic was for maritime safety.

Like I said, it would have to be a sudden onset event. Perhaps an incredibly powerful storm that forms so suddenly that it prevents evacuation. In any case, humanity only seems to collectively change course once something really, really dramatic and intolerable occurs to rich people.

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 01:52 on Apr 23, 2016

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Banana Man posted:

You weren't stressed upon initially learning about climate change? Pretty big gap between that and mental illness.

Mentally, for me, it feels like a very dull, intermittent, low-grade anxiety that infrequently pops up every now and then. Usually when I encounter an article about new monthly temp records being broken or coral reefs being bleached. Or when someone mentions offhand about how unseasonably warm the winter has been.

It also sometimes derives from my own experience. For example, the disconnect I felt between my "expectations" for a winter season that are in line with what I have experienced over the course of my lifetime, and the "reality" of something like last winter, where I was outside in a t-shirt in February when I should have been bundled up and trudging through snow drifts. It can be unsettling.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Grouchio posted:

The Middle East is literally toast, let's move on and discuss how much of a migrant crisis that will cause.

Luckily we can look to Fort McMurray in northern Alberta, Canada for an instructive example. Exceptionally dry conditions and high temperatures have caused an out of control wildfire that has since forced the evacuation of the entire city. It is unprecedented.

The town is also ground zero for Canada's oil extraction industry so there might be some kind of irony there or something.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Fasdar posted:

I have a question for the thread:

I research the vulnerability of social systems to climate change for my job, and my general impression so far is that the social science of climate change is either (a) very cautious, case-specific, or vague, (b) hugely alarmist and not that well grounded in empirical facts, (c) largely ignored or misunderstood by the people working on the climate/governance side of things, or (d) pragmatic to the point of ignoring the severity of the issue at hand.

I say this because I'm increasingly of the mind that the worst impacts of climate change will be moot from our civilization's perspective when the various ultra-nationalists and other xenophobic political fronts start to gain majority power in major industrialized countries as a result of even moderate up-ticks in global refugee flows. I'm also very concerned that near- to medium-term (by 2050) water shortages - even if periodic - will contribute to global instability in ways that far outstrip most peoples' expectations, mainly due to things like relative deprivation and the heterogeneity of water resources across most political entities. There are just too many systems already operating in tolerable (and even quite attractive, in some cases) but nevertheless highly vulnerable watersheds, and Trump is winning big in most of those states already, let's just say. In other words, I'm operating under the assumption that it doesn't actually have to get "apocalyptic" for social systems (at whatever scale) to start having very serious reactions.

Of course, I don't say any of that out loud, because I like my (very carefully conducted) job, but I'm wondering if anyone in this group of posters has come across any good reading on the topic of social system responses to systemic stress over both long and short periods of time, particularly as relates to thresholds beyond which those systems begin to break apart. I've read a lot of the collapse archaeology literature, and pretty much all of the contemporary social vulnerability to climate change and extreme events literature (Adger et al.; Oliver-Smith; and the like) literature, as well as all the NCA, IPCCC, and UNFCC stuff, but I'm always surprised by what the internet knows about.

Edit: tl;dr: Does anyone know of any good books about the relationship between climate stressors and social instability?

Funny enough, I just finished a major research paper as part of my masters that touched on this subject.

The best all-in-one sort of book I've found about the topic is Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges by Robert McLeman. He, like you, points out that currently we just don't know what will happen when poo poo really starts to hit the fan. However, past events involving rapid-onset and slow acting environmental degradation can be instructive. In his book he provides lots of examples and some good summaries of current knowledge. Some of his own research on the experience of Okies who moved to California during the dust bowl is really fascinating, too.

Other than that, I'd suggest looking at authors who have studied linkages between environmental degradation/resource depletion and conflict. Homer-Dixon comes to mind in this respect.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Grouchio posted:

Are there any good resources or papers regarding hypothetical Malthusian and climate-change related migrant crises mid-century that would dwarf the current ones and (possibly) bring forth first-world societal collapse? Can these fears be alleviated or solved somehow?

yes but give me like, a few hours

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Nice piece of fish posted:

Haven't read up on this topic at all, would you mind giving a short synopsis of your take on this based on your work with these sources? Goes for the both of you, really. I find this issue very interesting if not completely central to the topic of the thread and I'd love to see some more discussion on it.

Sure. I just finished the program and I doubt anyone will actually ever read my paper, so might as well post about it on a dead gay comedy forum.

Billions displaced! Millions dead! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!



There has been a lot of popular press about the future tidal wave of human migration that climate change may cause. While to a certain extent it is true that climate change will force people to relocate, the actual reality of the situation is much more nuanced and complex than what it's made out to be.

For starters, the "apocalyptic" predictions that have been popularly cited have questionable quantitative methods backing them. The most widely cited comes from a British environmental scientist named Norman Meyers. Myers wrote several papers in the late 1990's to early 2000's to alert policy-makers about the growing phenomenon of environmental refugees. His most influential paper was in 2002, where he estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. However, his methodologies have received considerable criticism. For the 2002 estimate, for example, Myers apparently forecasted the number of people that are expected to live in at-risk regions by 2050 and used this estimate as his basis for the prediction, assuming that all would be forced to leave. That said, Myers work did bring significant political and media attention to the potential for climate change to displace people, so I can't come down too hard on the guy.

But Myers hasn't been the only author on this topic. For a brief period during the early 2000's, there almost seemed to be a fad among policy wonks, NGO's and advocacy groups to come out with increasingly dire predictions regarding climate change and migration. Yet most of these predictions have only been published in 'grey' literature, not scientific publications, and thus have not been subjected to any sort of academic rigor. In fact, all forecasts of climate displacement have been met with considerable skepticism from the scientific community. Regardless of academic credibility, these predictions have since punched above their weight when it comes to media sensationalism and policy making. They are often cited as scientific truth, without having their methodologies questioned. Moreover, even in the scientific community, now struggling to find a way to actually make an informed prediction, no clear consensus has emerged on exactly what kind of methodology should be used to measure displacement or how predictions should be modeled. This is reflected by the IPCC's noticeable absence on addressing environmental migration resulting from climate change. So far, the IPCC has not thrown weight behind any numbers, instead choosing to make vague statements about the potential for climate change to displace people.


What? So there's no such thing as migration due to environmental conditions?

Well, no, not exactly, but surprisingly it's really goddamn hard to pin down exactly what environmental migration is.

If you accept that it is someone who simple packs up and leaves to move permanently to another location because their home has become intolerable due to environmental conditions, then an elderly couple relocating permanently from Minnesota to Florida would fit the bill. However, a young woman who leaves her home on the Niger delta due to flooding but then returns several months later would not. Yet we could probably agree that both scenarios are radically different in terms of the agency of the individuals involved and the resources available to them. In one, the relocation is voluntary. In the other, the relocation is not. Given this lack of methodology and empirical study, the field is wide open for guesses and doom-and-gloom estimates rather than actual numbers.

This ties into the crux of the problem with drawing linkages between climate change and migration: People decide to relocate from one place to another as the result of a multitude of reasons, and not just for one reason in particular.

In fact, research indicates that most migration is intra-national rather than international. That is, individuals who decide to relocate often do so within the borders of their own country before looking elsewhere. And, given this, how do you determine the difference between an individual who has relocated to a nearby city because his farmland dried up, versus an individual who has relocated because he is seeking better employment opportunities? What if both reasons are one-in-the-same? Bear in mind that the ability for state-actors or NGOs to calculate these types of movements are very much limited in developing countries.


OK Arkane :rolleyes:, so you're saying that climate change WON'T cause a migration crisis?

No. But saying that it will dangerously simplifies the situation by making such movements deterministic on one particular factor. Climate change will no doubt force households to migrate, but to what extent is proving to be exceptionally difficult to quantify because the other factors that go into a household to make such a decision are multiple and contextual. For example, assume your home is destroyed by a hurricane. Will you stick around and try to rebuild in the community where you've lived for your entire life, even if you suspect that there will be more hurricanes? Or will your strike out on your own, abandon your close-knit social ties, and head to the nearest major city to find employment and hope that they are better prepared for hurricanes there? What if you have two generations of family living with you? What if you have children? What if you are the sole breadwinner of the household?

In fact, some really interesting research has shown that intra-migration flows tend to decrease after a sudden-onset environmental disaster. This is likely due to the type of aforementioned scenario above: people are attached to the places they know, and will expend a huge amount of effort and energy trying to rebuild their lives in-situ rather than seek shelter elsewhere -- often because they simply have no choice. It's a devil-you-know type of situation that is compounded by poverty and social ties.


Yeah but won't climate change force many people to migrate?

So, as it turns out, different people have different reactions to different types of environmental degradation. For example, a family in the Philippines who is displaced by a typhoon and is evacuated from their village may return afterwards to start rebuilding. On the other hand, a farmer in Malawi might weather through a few drought seasons before he realizes that his family will die if they do not find a way to make ends meet, and thus decides to take his chances in Lilongwe. Conversely, an affluent family in Delhi might attempt to immigrate overseas to a country with better air quality and a large Indian ex-pat community because they are starting to feel the effects of the pollution, even if it means accepting a lower standard of living. Each decision is one that is made within the context of that households perceived needs, resources and capabilities, and it is virtually impossible to predict or categorize this. Which is why it's so easy to fall into a trap of blanketing all of this with 'climate refugees', with a tinge of xenophobia as images of radicalized young brown men overwhelming Europe and converting ice cream trucks into mobile FGM units come to mind.


OK, I get it, but a lot of people have said that climate change was a cause of the civil war in Syria!

Good. Now this is the meat of the issue.

Climate change by itself will not cause a global refugee crisis. However, it will be a contributing factor. Some academics think Syria is a good example of this. The incredibly simplistic tl;dr is that unprecedented drought conditions in Syria, exacerbated by climate change, caused agricultural production to decline and forced many rural families to relocate to urban centers. Farmers got pissed off at Assad for his lack of action and started to agitate for change, finding themselves with a population base to rally from in the cities... and, well ... you know the rest. The point is: climate change will exacerbate existing conflicts and tensions, and could in turn cause these to escalate, especially if there are concerns over a shortage of resources that reliant on environmental conditions (water, food, etc.).


OH poo poo. OH poo poo. OH poo poo. I KNEW IT. I KNEW IT!!!

Calm the gently caress down, chicken little. Yes, climate change likely did play a role in Syria's civil war and will likely cause more conflicts. But if it was to be the determining factor, we should expect neighboring Jordan to be in similar turmoil due to its ongoing drought -- moreso, even, considering it has been the 'go to' point for refugees from Iraq, Palestine and Syria. But it hasn't, and there are probably lots of reasons for this.

Generally speaking, environmental degradation and resource conflicts can be managed. But this, too, is determined by many factors. The most important of which appears to be the strength of national, sub-national, and community institutions to address big problems. For instance, some studies have shown that in some drought-stricken areas in sub-saharan Africa, farmers didn't just go all crazy and kill each other over to have their cattle graze on limited lands, but instead set up councils to manage disputes and negotiate pasture rights for the benefit of everybody. In fact, more often than not, it is cooperation that becomes the hallmark of resource shortages, rather than violence or conflict. But again, this appears to be very much dependent on how well institutions are able to withstand slow or rapid-onset changes. A nation with weak governance regimes and little public trust is more susceptible to conflict events than a nation with stronger institutions and more public 'buy-in'.

There are also other factors at play here, too. One geo-spatial analysis of global conflict events indicate that the factors that best predict whether a region will experience conflict is falling GDP and increasing urban population density. Resource shortages, such as water availability and arable land, though identified as factors, were relatively minor compared to the first two. The authors of the analysis speculated that there were several reasons for this:

1. Increased urban to rural migration caused conflict in receiving areas. As more people pour in from the countryside, more conflict occurs over housing, jobs, and access to services between the existing residents and newcomers.

2. Less GDP means less material wealth for citizens and less revenue for the government. As the economy declines, more people are out of work and the government receives less money in taxation, leading to a decline in services just when people need them the most.

3. More people in a city means more of a population base to build a movement from. Proximity to people with simmering grudges against either their perceived persecution or their unhappiness with existing power structures can lead to the formation of organized resistance groups that can credibly threaten the legitimacy of a weak government.

In terms of declining GDP and an increase in the population of urban areas, climate change will obviously impact both. Thus, you can start to imagine how climate change won't necessarily be the cause of future refugee flows, but rather will be one of many determining factors for those refugee flows.


What does all this mean?

The good news is that all this means that we have the capacity right now to prevent future refugee flows. Yes, climate change itself is inevitable, and yes, this means that some areas of the planet will likely see human settlements relocate. However, although the environmental effects of climate change might be 'baked-in' for the next half century, the way we handle those effects are by no means certain. First and foremost would be to recognize that sounding all alarms on the potential for a migration crisis that will result from climate change is counter-productive. It's certainly useful for lighting a fire under the asses of policy-makers to take the issue more seriously, but it does nothing in the long run to address the real problem which is the inability of the institutional structures of many developing nations to cope with what's coming. If we want to focus on ensuring that a migration crisis does not occur, we must go directly to the source instead of cowering behind guard towers and barbed wires.

Here is a quick illustrative scenario to hopefully get the point across: Let's say climate change causes a farmer to miss a growing season or two due to drought, high temperatures, invasive pests, whatever.

In France, this farmer would be relatively certain that she could cover her losses through insurance or through government subsidy and simply wait things out. Worse comes to worse, she declares bankruptcy and moves in with family in Boredeaux, where she can rely on the stability of the state to provide her with welfare until she can find a new job.

In Zambia, however, it's a different story. Barely able to make more than subsistence, the farmer is now completely unable to feed himself or his family. With no other option, and with no extended family for support, he decides to take a chance in Livingstone. Yet he will likely be unable to find state support, and will have to rely on luck and chance to find another job or become well established. Maybe he succeeds. Maybe he gets involved with petty crime to support himself -- its easy when the police can be bribed. Maybe he gets assaulted for being another migrant trying to steal someone's job. But in any case, his future trajectory is much different than that of the French farmer.


So, uh, what do we do?

This is where things get thorny, because there are really only two answers to this question. And, in my opinion, it's starkly apparent which one we are choosing. I'll leave it up to you to decide which one you think that is.


Answer #1: Let the Fuckers Die



Oh sure, we will cluck our tongues, send our prayers over Twitter, maybe make a donation to the Red Cross, but generally speaking, we will just let the fuckers die.

The wealthy nations of the world will continue to calcify their borders, come up with even more elaborate and sophisticated surveillance methods, and withdraw from international obligations in order to sort out their own climate-change strategies at home (hey, those barriers to protect New York City from storm surges aren't free you know).

What seems like a surveillance state to us now will seem like a paradise of liberty and freedom to future generations -- if they are even aware of the kind of freedoms we had. Ultimately, we will keep the status quo going for as long as humanly possible, with maybe a few social-democratic changes here and there to keep everyone happy and well-fed in the lifeboats. Regardless, since we are all basically powerless to stop the inertia of our economic, social, and political systems, and since attempts to collectively come together to address potential reforms will likely be smothered-in-the-crib both online and in reality, we will simply have to be content to click the frowny face on Facebook that accompanies the article about the tens-of-thousands who died in Thailand during the most recent typhoon in order to register our impotent horror at what the world is coming to.

Internationally, we can expect to witness institutional and social collapse on an unprecedented scale in the developing world, but don't expect it to affect us. For the ones who try to escape, they will simply become part of the meat-grinder of human misery within their own borders. For the incredibly lucky ones who get within spitting distance of a wealthy western nation and don't drown in the process, they will either be detained in horrific conditions (see: Australia), or simply blown up or shot -- all outside the public eye, mind you. Maybe to try and soothe our collective guilt we will have some token efforts to accept a piddling amount of refugees through a 'humane' and 'fair' determination method -- possibly a lottery? Who knows.

In any case, I don't envision that we will see migrants being shot or detained on the borders of the inner core of privileged countries. We will leave the grisly duty of thinning the asylum claims to transit states like Hungary and Greece (or, in the case of North America, Mexico), whom I imagine we will start making some pretty sweet deals with in return for some, uh, discrete and 'enhanced' border security measures.

Pros: We will be fine!
Cons: Untold millions die and the planet becomes much more hostile to human civilization and for the love of god lets hope India and Pakistan don't duke it out!


Answer #2: We Do Something!



Armed with the knowledge that the best way to prevent a migration crisis is to make drastic efforts to strengthen and enhance the institutional capabilities of the most vulnerable regions of the world, humanity collectively decides to invest enormous resources into development programmes that allow global populations to mitigate and adapt in place for the effects of climate change.

I don't think I can over emphasize enough the scale of resources, international cooperation, and jurisdictional overlap that would have to occur under such a scenario. The actions necessary to coordinate for this would dwarf by several orders of magnitude anything seen during WWII. We would essentially be undertaking a generations long process with the following goals:

1. Ensure that almost all nations on earth have the capability to mitigate or adapt to the effects of climate change within the next thirty years;
2. Undertake this process in a way that does not repeat the mistakes of colonialism and respects national autonomy and diversity of populations;
3. Do all of the above in a manner that simultaneously reduces carbon emissions; and,
4. Ensure the process is uninterrupted, even if results will not be seen for half-a-century or more, and even if it may cause a slight material reduction in the quality of life for those living in the global north.

Pros: Humanity enters a golden age where nations and cultures deeply commit themselves to planetary stewardship for the benefit of all current and future generations!
Cons: We don't get new iPhones every three years and our taxes go up!


Uh...

Yeah, tl;dr we are so screwed. But hey, I hope this was informative for someone.

Edit: grammar and such

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 00:49 on May 5, 2016

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Grouchio posted:

So as a follow-up to Syria, what parts of the world do you guys think are next to have a similar ecological/social crisis in the near future? Potential hot-spots that could spark the next great wave of migrants? Are any third-world countries bound to adapt and improve better than others, or are they equally screwed? Which countries are bound to be really screwed?

Well, like the effort posts have been pointing out, "it depends".

Generally speaking, I imagine nations that have weak or weakening public institutions or loopy-iron-fist ruling regimes, and that have large populations vulnerable to climate change impacts will become the 'hot-spots'.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

plushpuffin posted:

We can solve this. We just have to think outside of the box.

... Does it still count if you rip the same tree out of the ground and re-plant it, over and over again?

No joke, some have proposed massive underground bunkers that we fill with logged trees like we do nuclear waste, as a form of carbon sequestration.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

TildeATH posted:

For those of you who are actually in the trenches, at what point did/do you just throw your hands up and accept that the tragedy of the commons is unavoidable?

This past year has probably been the tipping point for me. In my 20's I still felt some kind of optimism. I remember reading about the crisis that coral reefs would face should the warming continue. I thought to myself "there is no way humanity would let something like the Great Barrier Reef turn into a brittle bleached skeleton". At the time I was involved with forest ecology and was learning some scary stuff, this eventually transformed into an academic and professional career in urban planning in the hopes that I could at least address what I thought was the primary contributor to the crisis -- our patterns of consumption across the landscape.

Then this year came along and wouldn't you know it, we are going to let the Great Barrier Reef turn into a brittle bleached skeleton.

I have the means to take a trip to Australia. I am seriously considering it given the situation. I know it's selfish, but at this point, honestly, whether I do it or not, it's going to be gone.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

At an individual level, it really feels like all I can do is flail around impotently. But I am still trying hard to change things in my field, even if it's just rearranging deck chairs.

Hypothetical: if you were a multi-billionaire on the level of Mark Zuckerberg with connections everywhere, what would you guys do?

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Trabisnikof posted:

This sort of response is counterproductive. Just because our options are "bad" and "worse" isn't a justification for picking "worse" through inaction.


Probably most effective would be to engage with a local activism group in your community. Volunteer to help educate, speak at local meetings and organize around the local political issues that are climate related and impacted.

Sure, this won't solve the climate, but it is the most effective way for individuals to sway policy. All politics is local.

And talk about it with your friends and family. I know it's kind of a downer sometimes, and definitely don't make it a point of regular conversations, but you should try discussing it with other people. Word of mouth is still a powerful thing outside of social media.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

If China thought reducing emissions would severely damage their economy they wouldn't have signed up to the agreements at all. Now they can continue what they (hopefully) believed was the correct long term decision while also being :smug: about they have surpassed the Americans as a world leader in the field.

... right? :ohdear:

tbh I think you are right about this. I suspect the PRC can see the writing on the wall. They literally have nothing to lose by combating climate change and investing in mitigation/green energy. It will help to quell the murmurs of discontent over the environment domestically and paints them in a very positive light on the international stage. They also have done a lot of development work/major investments in African countries (many of which will be hit hard by climate change) and I'm sure they'll want to keep up the good will as they push development (read: influence) there.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

FWIW if Canada becomes something of a 'Plan B', expect it to go the way of Puerto Rico in terms of autonomy. If the US needs to resettle tens of millions of people into Canada, it will ask us very politely with a gun to our head. The reality is, even if 10% of the population of the United States was relocated to Canada, that would essentially be doubling the population of our entire country.

If you are serious about relocating, the PNW or Eastern Great Lakes region (i.e. upstate New York) is your best bet to 'weather things out'.

In any case, the nature of climate change and its self-reinforcing effects means the decline will be relatively slow and gradual until it's not. My favorite illustration of this is the exponential growth of a drop of water in the stadium:

quote:




Imagine that it's 12:00PM and you are chained to a seat at the top of a water-tight football stadium. Below you, on the field, is a magical drop of water. This drop is magical because after each minute it will double in size: after two minutes there will be two drops of water; after three minutes, there are four drops. And so on.

Here’s the question: How much time do you have to free yourself from the seat and leave the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top? Think about it for a moment. Is it hours, days, weeks, months?

The answer: You have until exactly 12:49pm.

It takes this exponentially growing drop less than 50 minutes to fill a whole football stadium with water. That may seem impressive but the really important part of the lesson is that at 12:45 the leak has only filled 7% of the stadium -- at this point, it would just be lapping the first row of seats. This leads you to think that you have hours and hours of time left before you are affected so you don’t work as hard on escaping as you should be doing. Unfortunately, the nature of exponential functions means that the stadium fills up only 4 short minutes later.

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 21:35 on Nov 14, 2016

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Geostomp posted:

Any time I try to mention something like this to some around me, I just get the usual line about liking it warm in winter. We won't get the denial to stop until heat stroke in December becomes a valid concern.

I've found the best word to use is 'eerie'. "This warm winter has been pretty eerie, huh?"

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

That is awesome Captain Scandinavia! I wonder if I could set up the same thing in my city.

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Nov 23, 2016

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Thankfully most of that worthless, unsightly agricultural land near major settlements in North America have had their topsoil removed and paved over for endless sprawling single family homes and vast seas of asphalt parking lots for chain restaurant outlets, shopping malls, gas stations and big box power centers!

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Rap Record Hoarder posted:

You can't really blame it solely on Trump appointees, given that people like Lamar Smith have been on the war path against any sort of progressive environmental policy for years. Credit where credit is due, although the fake news and climate denial will undoubtedly get worse as time marches on.

For example, today the official Twitter account for the House Science committee tweeted out a link to a Breitbart article casting doubt on climate change because it's cold outside.



The account has had an anti-Obama, anti-regulation, climate skeptic bent for a while, but I guess they're kicking things up a notch now.

Land temperatures != atmospheric temperatures :psyduck:

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

BattleMoose posted:

Sea Level Rise

Looking at the actual changes gives us a reasonable expectations of how things can/could change.



We are at about 1.8mm/year. That could well speed up, by a lot, but, no one really knows for sure. It certainly won't trend down though. The big issue with sea level rise is that it makes hurricanes much more severe, coupled with storm surges and that flooding will make land untenable to live in. At some point there are going to be a tonne of people with properties that they won't be able to sell, its like a stupid gambling game of musical chairs with properties in low lying areas at the moment. Taking 30 years and multiplying that by 1.8mm gives you the absolute best case not at all going to happen scenario with sea level rise. If that will effect your property or just the area near where you live, probably want to start thinking about moving. That;s about 60 mm, that's a lot.

Rising sea levels can also infiltrate local aquifers and make the water brackish and unfit for consumption. So, there's that, too.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

God that's depressing. I can't imagine what some scientists are feeling in the U.S. right now.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

I remember when in 2012 the Conservatives in Canada shut down PEARL, the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Lab, a vital monitoring station in the high arctic. Although (some) funding was restored by the Liberal Party when they took office in 2014, the lab is still grappling with the effects of its funding loss. Yes, Trump might be in office for only four years (one would hope), but if his climate/science policies are anything like the Conservatives in Canada, it will take a lot longer than that for the scientific community to recover.

The Globe and Mail posted:

The place is called PEARL – the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory – and its choice position overlooking Eureka on Ellesmere Island offers a window on the mechanics of climate change in the part of the planet where its effects are most immediate and acute.

“There are just so few stations in the high Arctic,” says Jim Drummond, a professor of atmospheric science at Dalhousie University and PEARL’s principal investigator. “We could put one further south and it would be useful, but not as useful.”

For all the frigid challenges that come with doing science near the top of the world, the biggest chill PEARL faces involves financing. In 2012, the Harper government, while touting its commitment to the Arctic, canned the lab’s funding source, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science, provoking an outcry from scientists both within Canada and internationally. Although a measure of funding was restored in the latest federal budget – $1-million a year for the next five years, or about two-thirds of what PEARL used to receive – the interruption came as a damaging blow to the lab. “We lost pretty well a whole summer of observation of atmospheric composition,” Prof. Drummond says. “Anything that couldn’t be run automatically was run very intermittently.”

PEARL is now in recovery mode, still ramping back up to its former level of activity. Currently, researchers are focused on observing the polar sunrise, a critical period when the high Arctic emerges from months of darkness and scientists can study important but fleeting changes that shed light on climate.

Overall, researchers at PEARL study a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, from cloud physics to ozone depletion to the industrial pollutants that migrate to the region. At 80 degrees north, the lab is close enough to the North Pole to provide a genuine snapshot of the high Arctic atmosphere, including four months every winter when there is no direct sunlight. Scientists are studying the Arctic winter, when the latest evidence suggests much of the warming occurs.

Most importantly for the rest of the world, PEARL is centred within a vast Canadian sector of the high Arctic that would otherwise go unmonitored if it wasn’t there. While stations in Alaska, Scandinavia and Russia are providing similarly important data, PEARL is recognized internationally as an essential link in the chain.

“Countries need to co-ordinate so that we can really get a handle on what’s going on in the Arctic,” says Taneil Uttal, a climatologist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, based in Boulder, Colo. “Otherwise we’re all like blind men holding on to different pieces of the elephant.”

Without funding in 2012, however, the lab lost the operators it had hired and trained to keep the experiments running year-round. Observations were made piecemeal rather than in continuous fashion, which reduced the confidence level of international researchers counting on PEARL’s data. The problem, Prof. Drummond says, is that when there’s a break in observations and something changes in the interim, it can be difficult to know if the change reflects something that’s really happened to the atmosphere or just a random shift in the equipment while it was switched off.

Research universities across the country felt the consequences. Tom Duck, an atmospheric physicist at Dalhousie University, led a group of more than eight research and technical staff to build a lidar system, which uses a powerful laser beam to measure the composition of the Arctic atmosphere by analyzing the light reflected back from assorted molecules and particles many kilometres in the air. They are trying to deteremine whether clouds are cooling or warming the atmosphere. Suddenly, Prof. Duck found his entire team gone but for one person. Many of those who left have since taken their expertise outside of Canada.

“You can’t just find people like that,” Prof. Duck says. “And you can imagine the damage that this has done to the reputation of Canadian science.”

U.S. collaborators, such as Dr. Uttal, who has instruments in place at Eureka, were also affected. “It was really terrible in my mind, given the investment you have in the instruments and the facilities up there,” she says. “You have to have dedicated on-site operators.”

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

If you were a billionaire with tens of billions of dollars, how would you try and 'solve' climate change?

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

ChairMaster posted:

Europe is going to have a very hard time feeding the people that already live there when the AMOC shuts down, there is literally no way they could accept all the refugees they will be seeing in the next couple decades.

This is part of why a lot of people in this thread talk about the future of the first world being one of brutality and authoritarianism, because these nations will not survive without an incredibly heavy border security force willing to gun down any incoming refugees at any given time, assuming they themselves can survive and not become a nation of refugees in the first place.

Just gonna repost this part of a write-up I made a while back ...

quote:

What do we do?

This is where things get thorny, because there are really only two answers to this question. And, in my opinion, it's starkly apparent which one we are choosing. I'll leave it up to you to decide which one you think that is.

Answer #1: Let the Fuckers Die



Oh sure, we will cluck our tongues, send our prayers over Twitter, maybe make a donation to the Red Cross, but generally speaking, we will just let the fuckers die.

The wealthy nations of the world will continue to calcify their borders, come up with even more elaborate and sophisticated surveillance methods, and withdraw from international obligations in order to sort out their own climate-change strategies at home (hey, those barriers to protect New York City from storm surges aren't free you know).

What seems like a surveillance state to us now will seem like a paradise of liberty and freedom to future generations -- if they are even aware of the kind of freedoms we had. Ultimately, we will keep the status quo going for as long as humanly possible, with maybe a few social-democratic changes here and there to keep everyone happy and well-fed in the lifeboats. Regardless, since we are all basically powerless to stop the inertia of our economic, social, and political systems, and since attempts to collectively come together to address potential reforms will likely be smothered-in-the-crib both online and in reality, we will simply have to be content to click the frowny face on Facebook that accompanies the article about the tens-of-thousands who died in Thailand during the most recent typhoon in order to register our impotent horror at what the world is coming to.

Internationally, we can expect to witness institutional and social collapse on an unprecedented scale in the developing world, but don't expect it to affect us. For the ones who try to escape, they will simply become part of the meat-grinder of human misery within their own borders. For the incredibly lucky ones who get within spitting distance of a wealthy western nation and don't drown in the process, they will either be detained in horrific conditions (see: Australia), or simply blown up or shot -- all outside the public eye, mind you. Maybe to try and soothe our collective guilt we will have some token efforts to accept a piddling amount of refugees through a 'humane' and 'fair' determination method -- possibly a lottery? Who knows.

In any case, I don't envision that we will see migrants being shot or detained on the borders of the inner core of privileged countries. We will leave the grisly duty of thinning the asylum claims to transit states like Hungary and Greece (or, in the case of North America, Mexico), whom I imagine we will start making some pretty sweet deals with in return for some, uh, discrete and 'enhanced' border security measures.

Pros: We will be fine!
Cons: Untold millions die and the planet becomes much more hostile to human civilization and for the love of god lets hope India and Pakistan don't duke it out!


Answer #2: We Do Something!



Armed with the knowledge that the best way to prevent a migration crisis is to make drastic efforts to strengthen and enhance the institutional capabilities of the most vulnerable regions of the world, humanity collectively decides to invest enormous resources into development programmes that allow global populations to mitigate and adapt in place for the effects of climate change.

I don't think I can over emphasize enough the scale of resources, international cooperation, and jurisdictional overlap that would have to occur under such a scenario. The actions necessary to coordinate for this would dwarf by several orders of magnitude anything seen during WWII. We would essentially be undertaking a generations long process with the following goals:

1. Ensure that almost all nations on earth have the capability to mitigate or adapt to the effects of climate change within the next thirty years;
2. Undertake this process in a way that does not repeat the mistakes of colonialism and respects national autonomy and diversity of populations;
3. Do all of the above in a manner that simultaneously reduces carbon emissions; and,
4. Ensure the process is uninterrupted, even if results will not be seen for half-a-century or more, and even if it may cause a slight material reduction in the quality of life for those living in the global north.

Pros: Humanity enters a golden age where nations and cultures deeply commit themselves to planetary stewardship for the benefit of all current and future generations!
Cons: We don't get new iPhones every three years and our taxes go up!

Yeah, tl;dr we are so screwed.

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Jan 15, 2017

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Mozi posted:

Anybody who does not feel nihilistic about the climate is either underinformed or is still progressing through the stages of grief.

I suppose so. I guess it's up to each individual then. I still have my own sense of justice and what is 'right'. My gut still tells me it's 'right' to try and find a way out of this mess, even if it is hopeless. At the very least, it gives me some purpose and meaning. I mean I could stand around in the first class lounge and drink some cognac while I sob through Nearer My God to Thee, or I could lash together some planks and try to make a raft; either way, I'll be dead in the water. Should try to be useful at the very least, if only to keep to my own set of principles.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Burt Buckle posted:

Someday solar power and electric cars will be more economical than gas/coal. I think I'm going to try and go that route when I get a house and just talk about how much money I'm saving. Even if I'm not.

If you seriously care at all about the carbon impact of your home/mode of transportation, move into housing that isn't a single family home and locate yourself within reach of public transit. Also, buy a bike.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

After freaking out about climate change as a teenager (10 years ago on these forums no less!) and wanting to do something - anything - to stop it, I just started my dream job that directly helps to lower carbon emissions and improves social equity.

Feels good man.

For all young'uns who might stumble into this thread: get angry, get passionate and make a plan. I might not be able to stop everything bad from happening, but making a living from doing what I feel is right is amazingly cathartic.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Trabisnikof posted:

Climate change will ruin cultural traditions and we will have to ruin cultural traditions to mitigate the damage of climate change. That's a lot harder to handle than regulating electricity generation.

Yeah fusion power is hella easy to do compared telling hundreds of millions of fat westerners to give up their single family homes in the sprawl, use bicycles instead of their SUV/truck, only eat vegetables and buy locally made goods that aren't readily available for purchase at a whim just to maybe make the planet less of a furnace inferno hellstorm for their grandchildren. Oh, and also compared to convincing the billions of aspirational westerners that they should do the same.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

call to action posted:

No doubt we can do some brutal poo poo at our borders, but I'm talking about internal refugees. The people that fled NOLA after Katrina for Houston, Baton Rouge, etc. were and still are truly desperate. Can you imagine if that event were much larger, and permanent?

If only 10% of the population of the United States decided to cross the border into Canada, it would effectively double the population of that country. It's unimaginable.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

When America wants to officially annex Canada, it will do so by first lining up its military across the border from major Canadian cities and then asking very politely.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Rime posted:

Please See:


You don't get it, FourLeaf. The world is not a hugbox, it does not give a poo poo about your bushy tailed utopian fantasies. This is what humans have done to each other for all of recorded history, and it is what they will do to each other to the bitter end. Do you think we will change from our current foreign policy in the event of mass climate upheaval? The West is right now, today, bombing the gently caress out of states which have been thrown into unrest by prolonged climate change.

As for that piece of poo poo Borlaug: do you think it's better that hundreds of millions will now starve to death or die in utterly horrific conditions, after a lifetime of squalor and poverty, rather than tens of millions? They're going to die either way, the green revolution just kicked the can down the road and upped the death toll exponentially while also drastically harming the environment. You are either a dipshit or willfully ignorant if you can't see how utterly hosed up that situation is. :colbert:


Quting myself, because even though I'm an optimist, even I can see the writing on the wall:

sitchensis posted:


So, uh, what do we do?

This is where things get thorny, because there are really only two answers to this question. And, in my opinion, it's starkly apparent which one we are choosing. I'll leave it up to you to decide which one you think that is.


Answer #1: Let the Fuckers Die



Oh sure, we will cluck our tongues, send our prayers over Twitter, maybe make a donation to the Red Cross, but generally speaking, we will just let the fuckers die.

The wealthy nations of the world will continue to calcify their borders, come up with even more elaborate and sophisticated surveillance methods, and withdraw from international obligations in order to sort out their own climate-change strategies at home (hey, those barriers to protect New York City from storm surges aren't free you know).

What seems like a surveillance state to us now will seem like a paradise of liberty and freedom to future generations -- if they are even aware of the kind of freedoms we had. Ultimately, we will keep the status quo going for as long as humanly possible, with maybe a few social-democratic changes here and there to keep everyone happy and well-fed in the lifeboats. Regardless, since we are all basically powerless to stop the inertia of our economic, social, and political systems, and since attempts to collectively come together to address potential reforms will likely be smothered-in-the-crib both online and in reality, we will simply have to be content to click the frowny face on Facebook that accompanies the article about the tens-of-thousands who died in Thailand during the most recent typhoon in order to register our impotent horror at what the world is coming to.

Internationally, we can expect to witness institutional and social collapse on an unprecedented scale in the developing world, but don't expect it to affect us. For the ones who try to escape, they will simply become part of the meat-grinder of human misery within their own borders. For the incredibly lucky ones who get within spitting distance of a wealthy western nation and don't drown in the process, they will either be detained in horrific conditions (see: Australia), or simply blown up or shot -- all outside the public eye, mind you. Maybe to try and soothe our collective guilt we will have some token efforts to accept a piddling amount of refugees through a 'humane' and 'fair' determination method -- possibly a lottery? Who knows.

In any case, I don't envision that we will see migrants being shot or detained on the borders of the inner core of privileged countries. We will leave the grisly duty of thinning the asylum claims to transit states like Hungary and Greece (or, in the case of North America, Mexico), whom I imagine we will start making some pretty sweet deals with in return for some, uh, discrete and 'enhanced' border security measures.

Pros: We will be fine!
Cons: Untold millions die and the planet becomes much more hostile to human civilization and for the love of god lets hope India and Pakistan don't duke it out!


Answer #2: We Do Something!



Armed with the knowledge that the best way to prevent a migration crisis is to make drastic efforts to strengthen and enhance the institutional capabilities of the most vulnerable regions of the world, humanity collectively decides to invest enormous resources into development programmes that allow global populations to mitigate and adapt in place for the effects of climate change.

I don't think I can over emphasize enough the scale of resources, international cooperation, and jurisdictional overlap that would have to occur under such a scenario. The actions necessary to coordinate for this would dwarf by several orders of magnitude anything seen during WWII. We would essentially be undertaking a generations long process with the following goals:

1. Ensure that almost all nations on earth have the capability to mitigate or adapt to the effects of climate change within the next thirty years;
2. Undertake this process in a way that does not repeat the mistakes of colonialism and respects national autonomy and diversity of populations;
3. Do all of the above in a manner that simultaneously reduces carbon emissions; and,
4. Ensure the process is uninterrupted, even if results will not be seen for half-a-century or more, and even if it may cause a slight material reduction in the quality of life for those living in the global north.

Pros: Humanity enters a golden age where nations and cultures deeply commit themselves to planetary stewardship for the benefit of all current and future generations!
Cons: We don't get new iPhones every three years and our taxes go up!


Uh...

Yeah, tl;dr we are so screwed. But hey, I hope this was informative for someone.

Edit: grammar and such

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

socialsecurity posted:

Imagine if a foreign country killed even 5% of what the AHCA is going to kill.

Vehicle crashes kill 40,000 people a year in the U.S., but hey that's just the cost of driving, absolutely nothing we can do to help that!

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

pacmania90 posted:

Just spend 70 percent of your income on an apartment in the inner-city or you're a part of the problem. No, you can't live farther away and pay less for housing because the buses don't go to that neighborhood and it's irresponsible to drive to work.

Maybe the problem is a systemic one regarding the way we regulate and subsidize our land use and transportation systems to make car ownership and suburban living vastly more affordable than any other way of life!

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

*only builds enormous freeways and sprawling single family home suburbs for the last sixty years*

"There is no demand for any other type of development!"

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Quote!=edit

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

we do read this thread fyi chairmaster

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Lately it sure seems like that one looney scientist who claimed we only had ten years left until civilization collapsed due to the effects of climate change might have been onto something.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Matt Christman from Chapo Trap House:

quote:

"Fascism arises because of the collapse of institutional legitimacy of liberal institutions.

That's how we got Trump and that how we're gonna get what's coming next after him that's gonna be even worse.

Because if you think there's not gonna be more ecological and economic catastrophes in the future that liberalism is wholly unsuited to loving deal with and that that failure is not going to lead to fascism filling that hole, you got another thing coming.

That's what these guys who marched in Charlottesville are aware of--the unspoken premise of the zombie neoliberalism we're living in, which is that we're coming to a point that there is going to be an ecological catastrophe and its going to either require mass redistribution of the ill gotten gains of the first world OR genocide. And these people have said "well if that's the choice, I choose genocide" and they are getting everybody else ready, intellectually and emotionally, for why that's going to be ok when it happens."

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

How can I profit from climate change? For fun I looked at some dirt cheap property in a northern Canadian port town that will have some good access to international trade once the arctic ice is gone. It also looks like it will be spared some of the more horrific effects of a warming world. Plus, those environmental migrants will hafta relocate somewhere.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Conspiratiorist posted:

Beware the North Atlantic will get loving cold when the thermohaline circulation shuts down.

It's on the Pacific coast so all good I think

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sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Perry Mason Jar posted:

Jesus loving christ!

No, really, it's OK. If New York City goes underwater we can just relocate everyone to the spare New York City we built in case of such a scenario.

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