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I feel as if you can just read the last ten or twenty pages of this thread and whatever arguments or discussion we would be having right now are pretty much covered already. Reality worse than forecasts, things are bad, nobody is doing enough. No solutions. You can go round and round but it's kind of preaching to the choir and feeling more and more bleak.
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Sep 23, 2016 13:48
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I wonder when we will get to the 'throw poo poo in the air and see if it helps' stage, because we're obviously going to blow by all our targets. Not for nothing but I also wonder about how confident scientists are with that 2C goal, given things we're seeing like permafrost melt.
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Sep 28, 2016 20:34
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I was thinking more of the predicted consequences of even staying at 2C, not to mention anything higher than that, and whether they are overly optimistic.
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Sep 28, 2016 23:30
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Life will continue in many forms so you might as well not make it as terrible for the next few dozen millennia as you can possibly imagine.
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Oct 4, 2016 14:20
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You want progress? Here's some!quote:Next ‘Renewable Energy’: Burning Forests, if Senators Get Their Way Progress!
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Oct 4, 2016 16:37
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Developed/undeveloped, winners vs losers does not matter in the end result, which is CO2 PPM. Millions/billions will die, there are going to be losers. If an effective solution means there are lots of losers, that's too bad.
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Oct 12, 2016 21:37
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Right - keep in mind that this type of geoengineering would redouble the acidification of the oceans, hastening the collapse of fisheries on which many of these developing countries rely.
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Oct 13, 2016 18:09
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Squalid posted:I'm not sure why so many people seem to think any kind of collective action on climate change is simply an impossible pipe dream. It's like they heard the parable of the tragedy of the commons one time and decided the problem was literally insurmountable. No, I'm just looking at where we are in time and our collective efforts this far. It's undeniable that there are steps in the right direction but it is past the time when 'beginnings' or 'first steps' are acceptable progress. Which is not to say that these efforts are meaningless, but rather that it's insulting to think that we are actually on a path to mitigate the problem, because barring some quasi-magical CO2-sucking widget, we are not going to make it. A carbon tax 20 years ago? That's meaningful. A carbon tax in 5-10 years? Much less so.
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Oct 16, 2016 12:08
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Forever_Peace posted:Nope, still meaningful. Yeah it's a major bummer we probably aren't going to meet the 2C goal, but 4C and 6C warming scenarios are so much worse it almost boggles the mind. I don't disagree with that and should have been more clear that a carbon tax in 10 years is of course still preferable to none at all. Things can always, always be worse. But there is still a lot of magical thinking going on that beginning efforts now will mean that things are not going to get very bad already.
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Oct 16, 2016 13:03
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Forever_Peace posted:Yes we've "locked in" about 1-1.5 C of warming over the next century even if emissions stopped today, yes that's bad, no we're not "past the point of no return", no reducing emissions now as fast as we can is not "pissing into the wind". My understanding is that we're already locked into more than that and that a 2C target is not only unreachable but itself too high for safety. As mass migration, agricultural collapse and famine, and extreme weather events occur with increasing severity and frequency, the world's ability to coordinate and invest in mitigation will be reduced. It's certainly pessimistic and probably not completely accurate to say we're past the point of no return, however one defines that, but if I were personally betting on the outcome, seeing the way countries and industry have handled this so far, seeing the way the EU is handling the migration crisis, seeing the way this topic hardly spoken of on the campaign trail, and applying a little imagination to the scientific reports (really, just visualizing what these effects would look like,) I would bet that we are going to fail as a species. Obviously there are no winners as a result of that and this isn't a helpful perspective to take - it can always be worse so don't tempt fate and do what you can - but if we're having an honest debate here, well, that's my perspective.
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Oct 17, 2016 14:56
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It's hard to say what will happen because Trump has no actual policy positions of his own, just lines that get applause so he re-uses them, but if he follows through on withdrawing from the Paris accords then it's hard to have any hope whatsoever even if you go into survivalist mode.
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Nov 9, 2016 18:23
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It will probably be obvious by that point. And yes there is hope that people go for crazy geo-engineering, it's almost guaranteed I think. Which isn't to say it's a good idea in the slightest. NewForumSoftware posted:lol @ the idea that everyone is "hosed" Or how about I imagine human beings living in a climate that no human has experienced on Earth before. Also go gently caress yourself with your idiotic 'white people' bullshit. Mozi fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Nov 9, 2016 |
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Nov 9, 2016 19:32
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If Trump withdraws from the Paris treaty there is no amount of organization or movement-tizing that will make up for that. Period.
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Nov 9, 2016 21:59
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This is an odd tangent.
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Nov 10, 2016 02:53
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AceOfFlames posted:I know people don't like to hear me to talk about this, but hopefully the growing despair will finally make peaceful ways to end one's life more freely available. It is a very scary situation to rationally come to the conclusion that one needs a plan and a means to quickly and painlessly end one's life when and if the situation demands it. I never had too much hope for our efforts on this front but always thought there was some outside chance that we could maybe figure out some crazy solution and muddle through like we have throughout history. But now - stick a fork in us, we're done. Realistically I was hoping for another couple decades of stability, at least. Just for my own selfish desires to enjoy life and the world. I'm not sure what will collapse first, now, but I'm not sure we have that long. A lot of people my age have young kids or are planning to have children. It's their kids I feel the worst for. I hope it goes without saying that nothing would make me happier than to be entirely wrong. Mozi fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Nov 10, 2016 |
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Nov 10, 2016 14:46
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icantfindaname posted:For what it's worth, the world will probably settle into a new equilibrium pretty soon after whatever huge cycle of wars/revolutions is coming. The worlds of 1905, 1925 and 1955 look a lot different from each other, but all of them are at a relatively stable equilibrium. Of course millions of people died in brief bursts in between them, but minor details That was always how we managed to get past our own screwups in the past but it's hard to say there will be another stable equilibrium coming as temperatures will continue to increase far into the future based on actions already taken (and what we are about to double down on.) TildeATH posted:Start your own thread for whiny euthanasia talk. This thread isn't a podium to talk about killing yourself, this thread is for discussing how we're going to kill something much much bigger. I'm uncomfortable with being that bleak as well. I don't want to think like this, I don't want anybody to have to think like this. But people are going to, because it is rational. Mozi fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Nov 10, 2016 |
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Nov 10, 2016 16:23
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No worries, I'm done.
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Nov 10, 2016 17:05
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Huzanko posted:Thank you for being opposed to despair. Despair is useless. Rejection of reality is more despicable than a cold-eyed acceptance. I don't want to die on this hill because I agree in principle, but people are still living in a fantasy land where things don't exist because their effects haven't materialized yet. People should be sad. They should be despairing, if they care at all about nature or children or the future of the human race. I used to wonder how some historical cataclysms could have happened - the collapse of the Bronze age civilizations, the vanishing of South American or Southeast Asian empires, the Dark Ages - when human ingenuity and progress seemed so dependable and assured. The answer is that progress is incredibly fragile and we have been lucky beyond belief to have made it this far - and of course due also to the countless numbers of completely anonymous people who believed in a better future and worked hard. And few people seem to realize just how fragile all of those gains are - how fragile everything we have in our world is. But we are going to have the opportunity to see. And if that makes me a negative nelly, I could not give less of a poo poo.
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Nov 10, 2016 19:33
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Scientists say it could already be "game over" for climate change posted:Scientists are now saying it might already be too late to avoid a temperature rise of up to 7.36 degrees Celsius (13.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. link: http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-say-it-could-already-be-game-over-for-climate-change Mozi fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Nov 11, 2016 |
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Nov 11, 2016 15:25
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Paradoxish posted:But, like, none of this is the end of the world. I've yet to see anyone give a plausible explanation for how western civilization actually collapses as a result of even worst case scenarios. I usually look at how well the US and Europe is handling this period of slow growth combined with some migration issues, in both cases pretty abjectly failing to resolve anything and usually making things worse. So you have a recipe for instability and conflict. Add in additional ingredients of resurgent nationalism and Trump making the decisions for the US and things are unlikely to improve. As underlying issues become more and more severe, manifesting as another recession and increased migration, and possibly more terror attacks, a positive path forward becomes more difficult to see. It all depends on what threshold would need to be passed to term it a 'collapse of Western civilization', but my fear is that we will have war that renders further progress on climate change impossible in the time frame needed and robs us of the ability to adapt and survive. Global warming enhances and deepens all of our existing threats and risks. I don't worry about dying from lack of water or excess heat, given where I happen to live. I do worry about war.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:23
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I'm preparing for the worst by buying homesteading eBooks - I fail to see any possible flaw in this plan. Seriously, though, the sun keeps coming up in the morning so you might as well make due. I'm going to try to make a hobby out of gardening and to learn some basic practical knowledge to reduce the amount of things I depend on that come from far away, the hope being it will be interesting in the meantime and very useful in the future. You have to occupy yourself somehow. Which is not to say my outlook is not grim or that I'm not reconciling the complete loss of the future I imagined as a child, where humanity does not end on this planet. But you still have a choice on a daily basis as to feel shattered by that or to distract yourself and continue to experience life - on your deathbed, the latter would still be nicer to have done. If there was a meteor that would hit us in a week I wouldn't want to spend the whole time sobbing. Kind of crazy to stretch that out for the indefinite future even if you know the end is coming. Instead, really experience what you still can, while you can.
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Nov 15, 2016 17:16
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I don't mean to speak for anyone else but I post depressing things in here because it's easier than saying them out loud in real life and I'm trying to work through my feelings.
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Nov 15, 2016 19:09
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Maybe it's like the car analogy except the downward slope of the road is increasing as well - it gets more and more difficult to slow down and at a certain point even if the wheels aren't moving you'll still go forward.
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Nov 15, 2016 22:18
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Surprise Giraffe posted:I was kind of wondering how come 1/4-1/3 of the ice being measured turned to mush in 3 months. Guess it's impossible to actually monitor all the ice in detail all the time. Could it also be that the ice is not re-freezing as solidly as it used to? So it is both melting beneath the water and what is aboveground melts more quickly than before.
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Nov 17, 2016 19:39
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 Save us, Trump!
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Nov 18, 2016 02:45
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According to this WaPo article it could be due to a combination of thin ice because of warmer waters and an erratic jetstream that is sending more warm air to the arctic and displacing the cold air to Siberia.
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Nov 18, 2016 02:47
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That's not what the article is about.
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Nov 18, 2016 16:03
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No.
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Nov 28, 2016 16:14
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I believe in the human race existing 100,000 years from now and that virtually anything is morally permissible if it clearly avoids our extinction. Obviously if you take that sentence, change a couple of nouns and place it back in, say, late 1930s Germany, the unsettling overtones of that line of thought become clear. But it's a bit like the laws of robotics, yes? Where I'm not going to kill another person, but what sort of actions are permissible to save the human race... and how can you be sure that is what you are doing?
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Nov 29, 2016 19:11
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I think we're pretty special (though not necessarily unique) but we can't survive without other species so it's kind of a Hobson's choice.
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Nov 29, 2016 22:38
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Hey, remember that good news about how China's coal production had peaked in 2013, years ahead of schedule?Despite Climate Change Vow, China Pushes to Dig More Coal posted:A lack of stockpiles and worries about electricity blackouts are spurring Chinese officials to reverse curbs that once helped reduce coal production. Mines are reopening. Miners are being lured back with fatter paychecks. From http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/29/business/energy-environment/china-coal-climate-change.html
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Nov 30, 2016 14:51
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It's not that they revised upwards the previous numbers, but they realized they did not have enough coal for various reasons and are frantically mining more.
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Nov 30, 2016 16:40
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double nine posted:question: given that we seem mostly unable to change our behaviours, how much of the world population would have to be brutally murdered for our presence and natural resource exploitation on this planet to be sustainable? 50%, 20%, 10%? 99.9%
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Dec 1, 2016 16:32
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TildeATH posted:Oh come off it, the Earth can only support 7 million Americans with SUVs? No, I was being a little pedantic. But if there were only 40 million of us total we'd have a hell of a lot more room to be jerks to the environment.
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Dec 1, 2016 17:36
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With this president it's as simple as "Hey Donald, do you remember that really fantastic idea you came up with about X? It goes like this..."
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Dec 1, 2016 18:15
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The implication being that countries that depend on fisheries that depend on reefs have no recourse.
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Dec 2, 2016 21:48
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Rime posted:El Nino was last year, this year is La Nina which is characterized by colder than usual temperatures. Happened to run across this today: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview La Niña no longer likely in the coming months posted:The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue (such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific), La Niña thresholds have not been met. Climate models and current observations suggest these patterns will not persist. The likelihood of La Niña developing in the coming months is now low, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has shifted from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE. The current low temperatures over Canada (and soon to sweep across the continental US) are due to the polar vortex being displaced from the Arctic. And if anyone remembers that hullaballoo last month about truly abnormal Arctic temperatures, here is the current forecast:  2017 is shaping up to be a historically interesting year. Edit: And in case you were wondering how it was going down South: 
Mozi fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Dec 7, 2016 |
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Dec 7, 2016 17:39
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What keeps bugging me is that I can do that and go into homestead-mode and grow half of my own food and all the rest of it, but even that kind of life depends on regular and predictable seasons and weather patterns. If those are completely destabilized you won't be able to rely on nature the way we did before technology - we will be out of options.
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Dec 8, 2016 19:41
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Some people may have been hoping that Trump's election might galvanize the necessary reaction to climate change (as opposed to inadequate business-as-usual under another Clinton administration.) I see an article in the NYTimes today with the headline 'Clean Energy ‘Moving Forward’ Despite Trump’s E.P.A. Pick, Experts Say.' When it is obvious that the existing regulations were grossly inadequate to accomplish what we want, it's a little baffling to me that these 'experts' are not currently engaged in a full court press to drive home the fact that simply 'moving forward' is guaranteed to lead to disaster. The gulf between what needs to happen and what is happening could not be more clear but the reaction by people who might actually understand this is entirely underwhelming. We are going to keep our heads in the sand while we feel the water rise around our ankles.
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Dec 9, 2016 15:26
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That was a good read, thanks.
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Dec 9, 2016 18:48
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