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sean price posted:my only question is why does there have to be a historical precedent for everything? some loving things happening every single day have never had any historical analogy This is why history has such lovely predictive power, people find things that are vaguely comparable and forget that even slight differences can completely change the outcome. It's also useful for lazy and ignorant people since is much easier to just point to something in the past than to make intelligent arguments.
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Nov 25, 2015 17:58
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sean price posted:i think comparing every single loving thing to past conflicts that happened before the advent of cars when a whole loving lot has changed in terms of war technology ALONE is p dumb, yea, is that nuanced or spergygoony or whatever you need it to be enough for you? It also leads to over-fitting the data which is another reason why the predictive power completely sucks. What people don't realize is that making your theory fit all the data is actually a very dumb thing to do since data is inherently noisy. A good example of this is in sports broadcasts.
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Nov 25, 2015 18:02
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