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Rakosi posted:No, I think it's unbelievable that it just so happened to occur that the rocket fired at them started malfunctioning in the sky just before the hospital hit, and with time enough between the two to look like it was the rocket falling/pitching down, but in that interval an IDF munition swooped in to do the actual damage. No sign of the rocket having fallen anywhere else yet. I don't not want it to be the IDF as some seem to think, it's just that narrative has no evidence yet and the rocket malfunction one is having increasing amounts of corroboration. Pretty much all of your posting about this has been "come onnnn, come onnn, don'tcha think they did it? Come onnnn, I betcha! I don't have anything at all, but don'tcha thinkkkk?" It's not convincing.
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Oct 18, 2023 00:57
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Rakosi posted:You're absolutely free to not be convinced. I feel I've posted things that raise more questions regarding the immediate assertation that it was definitely the IDF. It is completely possible that it was the IDF and that later facts will prove that, but those facts don't exist yet, and the ones that currently do seem to indicate a missile malfunction as being the most likely culprit, to me. You haven't, though. You need more than "Don'tcha think it a lil COINKYDINK?" and nonsense about how the fuel would make it explode with like a hundred times more force than any Gazan missile launched ever. That's not how it works. EDIT: Honestly it feels like you're just trying to shove square pegs into round holes to try and prove your initial assumption correct, even though if we want to go with proven facts, there's literally nothing on your side. Kchama fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 01:07
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Rakosi posted:This isn’t an accurate representation of the whole of what I have posted. "It is important to get this right, so I'll just accept anything." It doesn't seem terribly important to you judging by the fact that you don't see any harm in pushing your pet theory. Yeah, it can be a 'misfire', theoretically, but it's so unlikely that the fact that you're willing to entertain it over any obvious explanation says a lot about how important you believe it is to get it right. Like it's hell of a lot more of a coincidence that 'misfired' rocket would land just perfectly and with such immense force that it'd do damage literally hundred of times more lethal than any Gazan missile or rocket has done in a single attack. Even 'misfired' weapons in other conflicts have not done damage on this scale. The odds are a lot greater that, indeed, a big-boom missile came in and leveled the place.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:34
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Rakosi posted:Yes, because it landed on the crowd of people outside on the hospital grounds/courtyard. The hospital is/was on fire, but I do not believe anyone has said the building itself was directly hit in the sense that an explosive penetrated down through floors of the building itself. By the way I did some rudimentary research and the only rockets or missiles that Hamas or PIJ has access to have solid-state fuel. That is to say, the fuel would not impart additional boom, and usually by the time they are underway they have burned pretty much all of their fuel anyways.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:59
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NovemberMike posted:Rockets fly and go boom. JDAMS fall and go boom (they're just bombs that fall from planes but more accurate). A normal bomb is usually just high explosives, while a rocket has high explosives in the warhead but also propellant to make it fly. High explosives burn super fast, so while you do get some flash out of them it tends to go away quickly and you're left with a cloud of dust. Propellant burns slowly and tends to turn into fireballs. Gazan rockets are typically solid-state fuel rockets, so the propellants aren’t terribly explosive, and they don’t have very much propellant to begin with.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:50
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Charliegrs posted:I mean since everyone else is throwing out theories based on some grainy rear end videos I might as well too. How do we know Hamas didnt blow up the hospital? Maybe they stuffed a shitload of explosives in a tunnel underneath it? By the way, I'm not in any way supportive of Israel I think they are guilty of genocide before anyone goes and says I'm some Israel supporter. Only one person has done that, you should not join them in making poo poo up. Anyways, it probably says something that all the people ‘making theories’ and just bullshit to ‘prove some point’ do so to blame Hamas. And just to be clear, the ‘something’ is that it is muuuuuuch more likely Israel did it. Kchama fucked around with this message at 05:26 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 05:23
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Charliegrs posted:Hamas members go on a crazy rampage inside Israel that they know is going to lead to 10 times more Palestinians getting killed and they do it anyway. Which is completely different than killing Palestinians themselves.
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Oct 18, 2023 05:59
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Rakosi posted:EDIT: link deleted because not sure if there was gore or black fire scorching. How is that more evidence? You keep saying that about everything despite not really having a clue what you are talking about.
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Oct 18, 2023 07:39
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Rakosi posted:Because the damage is much more similar to what you’d expect from rockets fired from within Gaza. IDF bombs destroy whole buildings and city blocks, and leave huge craters, not just set cars on fire. The proof so far is circumstantial, yes, but it seems a very large portion of what I shared from information that looked like it made objective sense during the night’s events turned out to be true, or close to the truth. This attack didn’t level the building because it hit outside of it, but it did severe damage to it and killed a huge amount of people. This is just not the kind of damage that a Qassam could do. Qassams and other Gazan missile and rocket attacks have hit busy places before and the usual casualty rate is in the single digits. Your circumstantial evidence seems to be “It feels right to me” and not based off of any knowledge you have.
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Oct 18, 2023 08:00
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Rakosi posted:I24news English on youtube has a livestreaming briefing from the IDF explaining how everything happened as predicted by the footage/OSINT posted during the night. Seems like the larger fireball came from excess fuel from a failed launch. I've pointed out that you're wrong though, and you've just merrily ignored it. Hence why it's so obvious you're just doing this because 'it feels right'. Unless I've been lied to, the Badr-3 is a solid-state fuel rocket, which means that the fuel load is not the type to explode, so the 'heavy fuel load' you claim (with zero evidence) wouldn't matter. I'm not convinced because you're just posting theories with zero substance about them. You just hear what someone who says what you want it to be and then parrot that.
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Oct 18, 2023 08:15
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Starsfan posted:I don't get how you can (in the same post even) lecture people for bringing up that the casualties caused by this explosion are completely out of scope with anything that Hamas or PIJ has ever sent at Israel as being unfounded, but your entire argument for it being a "failed" PIJ rocket is that the damage / aftermath photos seems (to you, completely unqualifed to make these assessments) more like a PIJ rocket than an Israeli bomb.. based on some vague reasoning that Israeli bombs knock down buildings. I mean he's the person who in the same post cautioned that we need to 'get this right' because it was 'important' but then in the same breath said that he was going to do that by latching onto whatever theory he thinks sounds good to him. TheNakedFantastic posted:"Killed a huge amount of people" is also "just feels right to me" taking casualty claims at face value immediately after a bombing in the middle of the night. And so far all video evidence shows the hospital was not destroyed and the primary point of impact was likely the parking lot, with no clear distinction of even an impact crater. Both sides agree that hundreds of people were killed, so I'll take it as at least a good baseline to start with. And I think 'hundreds' counts as a 'huge amount of people'. Kchama fucked around with this message at 08:30 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 08:26
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Rakosi posted:I simultaneously think Israel is committing genocide while trying to remain objective when huge, unfolding events happen, and base my conclusions on what seems most likely based on the physical evidence available. Immediately after the explosion, it was claimed by Hamas that IDF struck and 500+ were killed. No one waited for evidence of this, they just believed Hamas officials and ran the story. 11 hours ago Gaza Report posted that there were no sign of mass casualties being evacuated to nearby health centers, so unless this information is false it’s likely the death toll is an exaggeration too. And I’m sure we all hope it is. Who is saying we need to believe that the IDF was responsible? It's right now farrrrrr more likely than it isn't. Why do you need to believe that they aren't responsible? I am telling you how rockets work! "I'm not a rocket expert, so I'll just ignore being told that my talking point is wrong and continue to parrot it" is not what you should do. A solid-state fuel rocket would not 'massively fireball' and cause extra damage in this situation, because the point of solid-state fuel is that it doesn't do that! Also Gaza Report is a no-name Twitter that you should not be using as a primary source for your theories. Acebuckeye13 posted:solid state rockets can absolutely explode what the hell are you talking about They can explode, but not in the way that is being described. They don't cook off like liquid fuel rockets do. Kchama fucked around with this message at 08:41 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 08:37
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Rakosi posted:https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1714539311914266931 If it is real and the translation is correct.... at no point do they say it is a Hamas or PIJ rocket. It's complete non-evidence. It's apparently two random guys going "Hey, they say it's OUR rocket!" "What? Who said this?" "THEY did! What the heck!?". It's just two guys discussing the fact that Hamas has been accused, but they obviously have no knowledge whatsoever. It'd be like presenting posts in this thread as proof of anything. DelilahFlowers posted:Why the gently caress have they not been using thosr then against the idf!?!? They saving them in case the idf bust out a gundam?!? From my understanding they've been using them but they're kind of terrible for hitting anything that can move. They fire and go in a general direction, so despite the heavier payload they usually do minimal damage.
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Oct 18, 2023 08:50
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Rakosi posted:In combination with other images and footage and in light of there being precisely zero evidence to support the hamas claim, outside of that one clip some people think sounds like a JDAM, yes, I find it compelling. D-Did you even watch it?? It's literally two randos with no personal knowledge of the information discussing the fact that Israel is accusing Hamas of firing the missile. It's literally as compelling as any two people in this thread talking to each other. Herstory Begins Now posted:it's making me feel more like Israel is responsible than if I hadn't read his posts This is how I feel more and more. Starsfan posted:how can you possibly find that audio clip is compelling evidence of anything. You have no way to verify who those people are or whether they have knowledge of what happened. They don't even act like they have knowledge. They're literally shocked at idea it could have been their rocket.
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Oct 18, 2023 09:01
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SuperTeeJay posted:https://x.com/qudsn/status/1714521896723636575 I think if it didn't happen in any way, then the IDF and US would be saying that at the very least. EDIT: Also like, there's evidence of a blast there. No one has claimed it destroyed a hospital, but people do say it killed a bunch of people outside and damaged the place. Kchama fucked around with this message at 09:13 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 09:11
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Rakosi posted:Video walkthrough of the site. Didn’t need to engage with rocketry hypotheticals regarding hamas or PIJ not having weapons big enough to level a hospital or kill 500 to 1000 people, because it’s looking far less likely that either of these things happened to the degree claimed, in the immediate aftermath of the incident. Thankfully.  at no point are you even considering that it could be an IDF bomb. Come on! "Oh well, it doesn't NEED to be a Qassam filled with hyper-liquid fuel despite being a solid-state rocket? Then hey, that means it can just be a Qassam!". You can really tell how at no point in your mind have you ever even thought for a nanosecond that it wasn't Hamas/PIJ.That's still a drat big boom for a Qassam, and Hamas doesn't had the big bombs that PIJ have.
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Oct 18, 2023 09:41
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Morton Salt Grrl posted:A JDAM would have done far more damage to the cars though? Most of them only have fire damage. And the tiles are still on the roof. 'JDAM' isn't a specific type of bomb. It refers to the kit used to make an unguided bomb into a guided bomb. Rakosi posted:Because the evidence never pointed strongly in that direction, once it starting coming out. You’re the one swimming against the evidence here, not me. Everything you say about my objectivity I can say about yours, but it seems like my initial thoughts and conclusions are getting more validated and yours arent. I already said we clearly just disagree on what counts as evidence and I am not trying to convince you any longer. Just posting relevent new images or reports that haven’t shown up in this thread yet for people who are tracking the story. Dude, all you've been doing is posting what the IDF and pro-IDF sources say and nodding in agreement, even when it's insanely stupid and in no way validates what you're saying. Just because you, by your own admittance, knows nothing, doesn't mean you should just instantly agree with whatever you hear that you want to be correct. Remember, when this conversation started, you said straight-up that there was it was 'very important we get this right' so you were going to just go with whatever theory you liked. I mean hell, your IDF Released Hamas Call that you didn't even listen to was so unconvincing that I'm now completely convinced the IDF did it. Kchama fucked around with this message at 09:58 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 09:54
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ASIC v Danny Bro posted:Can you give us any evidence that it was an IDF bomb. I'm not the one definitively saying it was either side. It's just more likely than not that the IDF did it. Rakosi posted:Completely untrue. They are denying it and trying to prove it wasnt them. Ah, so the IDF official bragging about it was actually just Some Dude Who Doesn't Know poo poo speaking officially, but two random dudes talking to each other are totally in the know? Pleasant Friend posted:Could the casualty figures include patients at the hospital that potentially died due to events from the blast? i.e. doctors/nurses being hurt and unable to attend, equipment failing, general stress from massive explosion I'm pretty sure the original reports were just massively high-rolling, because that's how they always are. Official counts seem to just agree on 'hundreds' so nobody is sure but they're sure it is a lot. Kchama fucked around with this message at 10:39 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 10:34
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Rakosi posted:This is an incredible rhetorical pivot after all of your enthusiastic and, imo, spurious refutation of any and all evidence coming out to suggest it wasn’t the IDF. If you recall my posting, I only recently concluded that I’m almost certain it was not the IDF and all through my posting up until the audio was reported, I stated numerous times that it was perfectly possible it was the IDF and why. Something you have failed to do in your case, at least without showing any conflicting evidence. No, I've never said that the IDF absolutely did it. Every time I said it's just much more likely that they did it. Also you didn't 'recently conclude' it was basically all I've seen you post. I've also said why I think it was the IDF by virtue of explaining why I didn't think it was likely yo be Hamas. Unless there's some fourth party slinging bombs around Gaza? But it's weird that you don't use that as evidence that Israel did it, but some Hamas guys going "Someone says WE did it?? Huh??" is proof that Hamas did.
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Oct 18, 2023 10:51
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Serious question: when has a single Hamas rocket ever managed this level of explosion? That's where I don't have any certainty. I don't know enough about Israeli rockets/missiles/bombs to know if they got anything specifically around that boon, but it doesn't seem Hamas has anything that'd boom like that. As far as I know, they have a big gap in explosive ability between their big and small stuff.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:35
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:The IDF claims it was Palestinian Islamic Jihad, not Hamas, but the explanation that seemed plausible to me is that it was the solid rocket motor landing and exploding. Basically a mix of sugar and potassium nitrate which then turned into a big fireball. It's not the warhead, it's the fuel. Solid fuel's not particularly known for cooking off like that, and they don't have THAT much fuel. Unless you're wanting to claim that they somehow supercharged it so it'd have a much bigger explosion than the actual warhead would provide. Which sounds awfully farfetched to me. Just claiming it was the warhead itself would actually be more convincing.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:17
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:I'm not a rocket scientist but people who claim to be well-informed think it could've been a Badr-3 with plenty of solid fuel left. I dunno though. Rockets burn their fuel extremely quickly. Like unless they were literally launching from the hospital, it'd be empty. The burn rate on them (that is to say, how long they can accelerate until they are out of fuel) is 4 seconds. This is why I've been extremely skeptical of the "it was because of the huge amounts of fuel in them!" claims. Kchama fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:32
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Aertuun posted:A few people were discussing munitions and different crater sizes. If anyone is confused as to how a large munition could leave a small crater, a poster from another thread posted a very informative video showing how modern airburst munitions can work. In this case, an "Airburst MK.83 GBU-32 JDAM" according to the demo video. I don't think people quite understand that 'JDAM' is not a specific type of bomb in and of itself, but a reference to the upgrade kit that turns dumb bombs into smart bombs. That seems to cause a lot of the confusion as they seem to think that when someone says 'JDAM' they mean a massive bomb that leaves a 10 meter deep crater. When in fact it could basically be any kind of bomb. Either way, the building wasn't destroyed simply because it wasn't directly hit. There was a lot of secondary effects from a good-sized explosion happening a decent ways away from the building being reported. I'm mostly just putting all of this because some people were taking the fact that the building is still standing as proof that it couldn't have been a bomb.
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Oct 19, 2023 00:05
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Yeah they uh, probably shouldn't be considered experts in the question if their field has nothing to do with the question at hand. That article is a more or less "We asked these random people what they thought. Their answers may surprise you!" bit.
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Oct 19, 2023 01:52
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Gumball Gumption posted:They're not being "huge shitheads", they're committing genocide through sabotaging necessary infrastructure. Because being accurate is important. Israel is still committing genocide, but if you’re lying about how they do it, you give them a way to refute you and strengthen their false claim that they are not. So if they are not, in fact, poisoning their water supply, then don’t say that. What they are doing is way more than bad enough as it is, you don’t need to invent false things.
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Oct 21, 2023 04:57
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There’s also the ignored ‘lying when the truth is just as bad is a dumb idea’ aspect.
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Oct 21, 2023 06:19
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Zulily Zoetrope posted:There is no material difference between those two. The latter carries a fig leaf of plausible deniablity which might help someone rationalize a UN veto or the like, which is all the more reason to reject the reframing. Poisoning a water supply is a pretty specific accusation. So you’ll get push-back because that is not what they are doing. Like, if they’re equally as bad, then why not say what they’re doing? If it doesn’t change anything, then why do you need to lie about the specifics?
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Oct 21, 2023 07:14
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I mean the obvious explanation would be that Hamas hid that evidence. And they would have little reason to hide evidence of Israeli involvement. If he's just going off of Israel's evidence, which uhh, is not the most trustworthy considering how much they've lied about it, then he's not working with the best information to begin with.
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Oct 22, 2023 02:17
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My guess is that there wasn’t a lot of care to investigating the bomb fragments at the time because there was a huge amount of bodies to clean up and injured people to tend to.
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Oct 22, 2023 05:31
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yes that is true of virtually all major bombings of densely packed civilians and yet it still is a thing that occurs I should clarify that they probably didn't think they'd need to investigate because who'd drop an explosive on them but the IDF? Which... is true, so it's not like they were wrong. IDF usually doesn't even care to pretend they weren't gleefully massacring people, either.
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Oct 22, 2023 08:27
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daslog posted:Disposing of any evidence that would confirm the origin of the rocket is a smart political move by Hamas. They were able to pull a massive reaction from countries across the globe, and there is nothing to be gained by providing forensic proof of who actually shot the rocket. I genuinely doubt it was an intentional thing. It's much more likely they didn't think it could possibly be their own weapon (which is a pretty fair assumption on their part) so the people on the scene just cleaned it up along with the huge amount of bodies.
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Oct 23, 2023 12:43
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Irony Be My Shield posted:There's never been a scenario where Israelis have been crowded into a courtyard in the path of a rocket - they generally are given advanced warning and usually can get to shelter. I don't think it's particularly strange that a weapon would kill a lot more people when it hits a crowd rather than a random empty building/car/field. There's a difference between 'kill a lot more people' and 'kill more people than hundreds of other hits combined times ten'. A Qassam's just not gonna do that much damage. They've hit crowds before and it generally results in a lot of injuries but only a few deaths. The sheer difference in lethality from normal is why people were trying to come up with theories like "They were full of hyper liquid fuel that exploded into massive murder explosions" even though that's not how rockets work. Hieronymous Alloy posted:Given the fatality rate it's possible that every fragment was in a spleen somewhere Grimly possible. Kchama fucked around with this message at 13:05 on Oct 23, 2023 |
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Oct 23, 2023 13:01
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CSM posted:For starters, we don't really know for certain whether the amount of casualties is as high as Hamas claims. Considering that not even fifty people have died from literally tens of thousands rockets fired at Israel, it's going to be very easy for that there to be more deaths in that one crowd than every rocket fired at Israel combined. Even the big ones.
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Oct 23, 2023 13:31
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Neurolimal posted:US government is full of true-believer freaks (Biden's been hardline on this before he was even a national politician), but they're at least competent enough to recognize Israel has no idea what it's doing. And they don't want to lose a third war in one term over a shrug. Especially one that solidifies the US as a terrorist nation to the entire region for another decade+. What are the other two wars that the US is in? I agree that they don't think highly of Israel's competence right now, I have no idea what two wars the US has been in, much less lost, in the past few years.
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Oct 24, 2023 09:00
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Josef bugman posted:I would assume Afghanistan for one, don't really know the second. Eh, I guess. I'm not sure anyone would count Israel and Gaza as a US war to begin with, though. Neurolimal posted:The second one happens to be the one most controversial on the forums, and also probably shouldn't contaminate this thread. Will just say that I'm bearish on US's side, even before our attention splintered. Yeah I don't buy that the public believes that I/P and U/R are American wars for one second. Afghanistan, sure, even if that was really lost before Biden's term he actually was the only one willing to actually withdraw. But those two? I don't buy it. Kchama fucked around with this message at 09:13 on Oct 24, 2023 |
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Oct 24, 2023 09:11
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Neo Rasa posted:Also serious question, I thought JDAM was like, the guidance software/system added on that makes a dumb bomb smart ti target specific stuff, not a specific size/type of bomb itself. This is correct. It's about as specific as saying 'bomb'. Using it like that is a good tell that the person does not know what they are talking about.
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Oct 24, 2023 14:36
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Raenir Salazar posted:I don't recall the Chinese Red Army engaging in atrocities under Mao despite both the IJA and KMT doing so and that's what I had in mind. You uh, recall wrong. The CRA were just as bad if not worse than everyone else.
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Oct 24, 2023 23:11
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Zzulu posted:I mean you don't have to guess because Japan did this in WW2 and America destroyed 3 cities with aerial bombardment. Including the capital which they firebombed to ensure maximum destruction and loss of life and two cities of which they nuked, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in total There might have been a few events between Pearl Harbor and bombing Japan.
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Nov 8, 2023 16:25
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:By actually doing journalism and investigating whether the footage is real, is in the correct location, at the right time, is what's being depicted actually what's occurring or is there another context for the footage etc. Having the capacity to spy on IDF doesn't confirm they killed 60 dudes, at once or not.
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Dec 7, 2023 03:54
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RC Cola posted:https://twitter.com/BirzeitU/status/1732478937152778716 That's a really awful thing Israel did there, however I question the wording of "executing" and "all life forms" there....
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Dec 7, 2023 05:28
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