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Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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BWV posted:

I've was having trouble getting my head around why this was strategically useful for Hamas and its goals and I appreciate all the posters here who have identified why. However I still think people are underestimating how much this will galvanize Israel to be even more destructive and how it has already unified a fractured political class under the goal of revenge. Maybe if this starts a larger trend of effective Hamas/Hezbollah raids which lead to a more consistent culture of fear and in turn makes the status quo untenable from the Israeli perspective , but I worry this will just lead to a bloodier version of the same thing we see every 2-3 years, except now Israel's reprisals can be even more destructive. I don't really want to engage with the arguments on the immorality/morality of killing civilians in this context but the images of them being slaughtered and dragged away will also give the far right a much freer hand (from the broad Israeli public and their American/European allies) to enact their most destructive ambitions. You might say "it can't get worse" but I really think it can and I'm truly worried that the next week or month will see Palestinian deaths on an order of magnitude we haven't seen before.


To clarify, I get why Hamas does this politically and I also can understand why at a certain point violence like this seems like the only way of expressing any type of political will or desire to exist, but all I can think about is how empowered the worst loving people are now to go even further in their bloodlust. Again, I accept that on some level they were always empowered to do this and the feeling that the situation couldn't get worse, but my sense from Israeli media and from talking to friends who live there is that the reprisals will be significantly heavier than before and that the overarching lesson is not going to be "we need to change the situation in Gaza" but "we need to raze Gaza."

If you put enough people in a situation where they'd rather kill than live, what happens?

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Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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salartarium posted:

Nelson Mandela successfully fought apartheid by launching a campaign of terror attacks. I think violence is never the answer, but it has demoralized a lot of occupiers throughout history.

Sinn Fein as well.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Was this posted already? Apologies if so.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/defense-minister-announces-complete-siege-of-gaza-no-power-food-or-fuel/

quote:

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says he has ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip, as Israel fights the Hamas terror group.

“I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed,” Gallant says following an assessment at the IDF Southern Command in Beersheba.

“We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly,” he adds.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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If anyone's looking for a media rec while they're waiting for new developments check out The Battle of Algiers. Fairly apropos and a fantastic film.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Irony Be My Shield posted:

Yeah. Hamas just gave the IDF the perfect justification for wiping Gaza off the face of the earth and I have no doubt they will make use of it.

I mean, call a spade a spade. They're going to attempt genocide.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Irony Be My Shield posted:

I think the sheer brutality, the mass and conscious targeting of civilians and the complete lack of any possible argument to justify the attack also make it stand out compared to airstrikes and rocket attacks.

As far as figures from actual news sources go it seems the brunt of Hamas's attack was against military units. They've captured several highly ranked members of the IDF.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Where are you getting this?

There are about 800 confirmed deaths right now.

260 were at the music festival and were all civilians.

Another 320 were civilians around the Gaza border and Northern Israel.

That leaves about 220 as "civilians and military personnel" during the initial attack on Saturday. Even if you are very generous and give 75% of that figure as soldiers, then that is still a little over 80% of the causalities being civilians.

I mean, it's old news, but: https://www.businessinsider.com/israels-best-commanders-many-officers-killed-hamas-war-gaza-idf-2023-10?op=1

And apparently there were one or two general officers taken as hostages, I couldn't find a decent source for that.

Mostly looks like they whipped the IDF pretty quickly and moved on to targets of opportunity.

Sucks, but that's war I guess?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Iran/Hamas have already admitted to working together to supply and plan the attack for the last two years.

I saw some tweets about that which I thought were pretty sketchy. You have a good source for that?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Hamas Spokesperson said so this morning. A Hezbollah spokesperson also said that Hezbollah had nothing to do with it and said it was Hamas and Iran.

The AP and WSJ also both have independent reporting on it.

The WSJ claims that Iran "gave the green light" and was deeply involved in planning the specifics. The AP report just says they found that Iran funded and was aware of the attack, but they can't confirm how involved they were in the specific details of planning it.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/is...PwSyBrYpQVUPyM9

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1711120355585089821

Yeah, that's what I saw, but it still seems pretty fuzzy?
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html

quote:

But for now, US officials say there is no intelligence making the direct connection.

Asked during a briefing with House leadership Sunday evening whether there was any indication that Iran had direct involvement, acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said: “We have not found that connection, but that doesn’t mean we won’t.”

I know they want to find a connection, but just claiming there is one seems to be jumping the gun, yeah?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

A Hamas spokesperson saying it seems pretty conclusive.

Basically everyone agrees (and Hamas/Iran have admitted) that Iran knew about the attack before it happened and funded it.

The dispute is over the WSJ piece claim that Iran "gave the greenlight" and was intimately involved in planning the specifics of the attack. So far, other sources have said they don't have conclusive proof about that yet.

Hamas, Hezbollah, the WSJ, the AP, and Egypt all agree on the connection, indirect aid from Iran for the attack, and knowledge of the attack before it happened. The WSJ is just the only one saying that their sources claimed that Iran was directly involved in approving and planning it.

I think you're projecting an outcome you want on really scant evidence, but that's what makes poker and horse races interesting so vOv.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

What part are you talking about? The part with scant evidence is that Iran was directly involved in approving and planning the attack. Only the WSJ is reporting that and everyone else says they don't have definitive proof of it.

The rest (funding/knowledge of the event) has been publicly confirmed by a Hamas spokesperson, a Hezbollah spokesperson, several different newspapers, Iran, Egypt, the BBC, and others.

So Iran had knowledge of the event, but there isn't evidence that they planned or approved of it is what you're saying? That's cool, but like, what's your point? Just throwing shade on Mossad? Sorry, I don't quite get what you're getting at here?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nah, that's it. Iran knew about it and funded it, but there is not currently any public evidence that they "gave the greenlight" or specifically orchestrated it. You said that there was no connection and I just wanted to make sure the specific facts were there/we were understanding each other.

The part of the WSJ's reporting that Iran was deeply involved in planning specifics and giving the green light hasn't been corroborated by other agencies, but the financial support and knowledge by Iran were confirmed by other groups - including Hamas itself.

"Funding it" is doing a lot of work here, but yeah, fair enough.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Raskolnikov2089 posted:

So as an outside observer, I'm curious, does this basically gift wrap Netanyahu's controversial judicial reforms for him?

At least in the US this would be the end of dissent. Everyone would rally around the flag.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meKhfr_CjQ0

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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dpkg chopra posted:

War never makes sense but, what’s the best case scenario for Israel?

They occupy Gaza, take control of it and “eliminate Hamas”.

They are now left with ~2m impoverished, hungry and sick people who absolutely hate them and still can’t go anywhere else.

This is so dumb.

They had ~2m impoverished, hungy and sick people who abolutely hate them and still can't go anywhere else before the hamas attack, so yeah that would literally be Israel's best case scenario.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nothing in there is even remotely close to "Israel would still control all the borders, seaports, and air space." The Jordanian border temporarily having an international team at certain military checkpoints that included Israel and Palestine is extremely different from that.

So an ethno-state no matter what the cost, huh?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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this is maybe a good time to talk about the march for return in 2018?

that's probably the latest instance of ppl in gaza seeking a non-violent end to their condition of living in a concentration camp, or whatever else you'd like to call it.

it is marked by hundreds of gaza residents that are missing a leg, because israeli snipers made a point of pride to shoot these protesters at the knee.

i'm just bringing it up because a lot of talk in here lately has been about hamas bad, without reflection on what else has been tried.

so, if anyone's interested, a read up on the march for return might be interesting?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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mannerup posted:

Hamas has shown how little they care about human lives or civilians, so neither you or I can answer that question whether they would commit such an act. The fact they are openly bragging about converting pipes into rockets in a propaganda video only causes more harm than good.

For the second part, I would argue they care more about their organization being the dominant political power in Palestine where they do provide for the material conditions of the Palestinian people who support them.

Stringent posted:

this is maybe a good time to talk about the march for return in 2018?

that's probably the latest instance of ppl in gaza seeking a non-violent end to their condition of living in a concentration camp, or whatever else you'd like to call it.

it is marked by hundreds of gaza residents that are missing a leg, because israeli snipers made a point of pride to shoot these protesters at the knee.

i'm just bringing it up because a lot of talk in here lately has been about hamas bad, without reflection on what else has been tried.

so, if anyone's interested, a read up on the march for return might be interesting?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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mannerup posted:

it’s clear the intent was textbook terrorism; using violence against civilians to achieve political aims, the actions of taking civilians hostage and recording the atrocities themselves to disseminate on social media were in pursuit of those aims. I think trying to frame it as just wanting to slaughter jews for it’s own sake or an oppressor/oppressed framework both fail to adequately describe the nature of the attack

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Hamas destroy a lot of IDF emplacements, overrun several IDF bases and kill or take hostage several high ranking IDF officers?

I'm not trying to hand it to Hamas or anything, but just looking at the information available, doesn't the Hamas operation look a lot more like a military operation than the IDF response to date?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Fister Roboto posted:

It's like saying that Ukrainians are only fighting back against Russia because they want to kill all the Russians.

I've thought about this a lot. I've thought about it in my comfortable chair, in front of my powerful computer with working electricity and internet, in my comfortable home with clean water and working heat, in a country where I belong to the dominant class and have never in my life had to even think about being oppressed. And I've come to the conclusion that I can't even begin to understand what it's like to be a Palestinian in Gaza. I can't condone the initial attack, but I also can't rightfully condemn it, because I have absolutely no idea how I'd act in that situation. If you grew up in a concentration camp, had your family killed by random bombings or snipers, you knew nothing about your captors because you had never even seen them in your life, and then one day the walls came down and you were given a gun and told to fight for your freedom, what would you do? I don't think anyone here has the moral framework to give an accurate answer to that.

I've had a lot of those same thoughts, and have reached a similar lack of conclusions.

It seems like in the West's narrative about Hamas there's been a distinct lack of asking "Why would they do this?" and a preponderance of, "Well, of course those people would do that."

What strikes me as a lot less confusing is the Israeli response, which is basically what the West did after 9/11. I know they're disparate incidents and shouldn't be conflated too heavily, but the similarities are there in my opinion, and it really seems like we didn't learn much in the intervening 20 years, which I really do find deplorable.

Stringent fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Oct 21, 2023

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Groovelord Neato posted:

It is insane how lazy they're getting with this poo poo.

https://x.com/netanyahu/status/1717916845859078531?s=20

I honestly think they're laughing at the US et al that are still buying this poo poo. They're just dabbing on them.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Rigel posted:

Its moments like these that make you realize that sometimes political leaders are not that bright.

"We didn't bomb the hospital, it was a defective Hamas rocket, and here are our arguments, video, and expert analysis to prove it"

OK, well there is still some uncertainty and other experts have cast some doubt onto your story, but your theory is maybe plausible.... though I'm not sure why it matters in the bigger picture, and everyone is starting to move on to more pressing issues in this conflic...

"oh, and even if we did bomb the hospital, its still OK because we know that they have dug themselves into a frightening warren of terror-tunnels underneath the hospital!"

Wait what..... I thought you said you didn't bomb it?

Occam's razor is sharp af yo.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

While the animation might but a pile of poo poo (where's the shaft Sadam is hiding in), I thought it was common knowledge that Shifa was Hamas' de-facto Gaza HQ, or at least de facto HQ during times of conflict. Fatah and Hamas fought one of their battles there after the pullout, and there's a PBS thing that time period too. There's an Amnesty Intl. report from the mid 2010's that mentions some bits like how Hamas used it as a torture and execution site for collaborators.

A quick googling of, "shifa amnesty international" isn't turning up anything, can you find a link? I'd like to read up on it.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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karasu posted:

Was curious myself, found this:

https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/hamas-tortured-and-killed-palestinian-collaborators-during-gaza-conflict-new-report

There ist a 44 page report attached, cannot read it on the phone.

So there's two stories of Hamas conducting executions near the hospital, but the original clam was,

quote:

I thought it was common knowledge that Shifa was Hamas' de-facto Gaza HQ

So I was hoping for more sourcing on that.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

A summary, there's more in the report

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/05/gaza-palestinians-tortured-summarily-killed-by-hamas-forces-during-2014-conflict/

There's a link to the formal report at the top but big :nms: warning for the report itself you can download in whatever language. It's about the extrajudicial abduction, torture, and killing of collaborators (or accused), complete with all the photo evidence. The Shifa outpatient clinic was used as something like a CIA black site.

Every reference to Al-Shifa I read in here was to the morgue. Is there any reference to it being a de-facto Hamas headquarters?

Stringent fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Oct 27, 2023

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

As I said the animation is dumb, but that place has been used with regularity as a Hamas strongpoint. The original PBS documentary from the Fatah/Hamas war is unfindable now, called 'Gaza E.R', but the reporting on the report still exists.

The Washington Post made the de facto HQ statement as far back as 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/2014072...445d_story.html

The only mention of al-Shifa in that article is,

quote:

At the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, crowds gathered to throw shoes and eggs at the Palestinian Authority’s health minister, who represents the crumbling “unity government” in the West Bank city of Ramallah. The minister was turned away before he reached the hospital, which has become a de facto headquarters for Hamas leaders, who can be seen in the hallways and offices.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Pvt. Parts posted:

I'm curious, and don't intend this as as much of a leading question as it will inevitably sound; is war ever justified in your view? If so, when?

The US Civil War was justified.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Baron Porkface posted:

A ceasefire keeps the slaves in Hamas captivity and rewards Hamas for having taken hostages.

slaves?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Something that is very pointedly not getting talked about is that a lot of the hostages Hamas took were IDF soldiers and officers. I keep wondering if the complete disregard of that is part of why the IDF has been so shy about entering Gaza.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Kalit posted:

TBH, I don't know. But Hamas murdering/abducting Israeli civilians was definitely not going to help Palestine's situation. It's only given Israel an excuse to accelerate their genocide.

Honest question then, is it the fact you object to or just the pace?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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mannerup posted:

not committing atrocities against civilians, how is that a hard concept to understand?

Cool, let's game this out. What is your mechanism for holding nation states accountable for atrocities against civilians?

Let's start with Israel and work our way out, ok?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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mannerup posted:

you first if you want to play some dumb first principles game in a slow mode thread

Sure, the US should discontinue any and all military aid to Israel immediately.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Irony Be My Shield posted:

I didn't make that claim in either of those posts. However, I think that it's reasonable to say that the plan was to kill/capture as many civilians as possible, given the tactics we saw on display (eg surrounding the concert, chasing fleeing civilians across the desert, subsequent waves of militants confirming that there were no survivors hiding etc). There may have been some isolated cases of militants sparing civilians but that does not change the overall intent of the attack.

Maybe you didn't make that claim previously, but you kinda just did now.

Also, what are you basing your analysis of the overall intent of the attack on? Just vibes or what?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Kalit posted:

IMO, you should probably take a step back and re-evaluate your thoughts when you start trivializing/excusing civilian deaths

If you actually prioritize civilian deaths as something to be prevented that's just further evidence for their statement. You know which side of this conflict has been and is killing the most civilians.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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DeadlyMuffin posted:

This is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence, and no the one lady's account of seeing people get shot in the crossfire in a kibbutz isn't sufficient to make that claim.

Eyewitness testimony from a non-state aligned party is actually the best evidence of what took place that's currently available, as far as I'm aware.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Irony Be My Shield posted:

(and still does - more Americans think that Israel isn't going far enough than think it's going too far)

As far as I know that is categorically untrue.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Irony Be My Shield posted:

I'm basing that statement on this poll by YouGov:

Looking at more recent polling things have shifted a bit away from Israel since its peak post-October 7th but the US is still a lot more pro-Israel than it was back in eg March (and that was already very pro-Israel).
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/47710-americans-are-growing-less-sympathetic-to-israel-as-war-fears-grow

No offense, but did you actually read either of these?

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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Irony Be My Shield posted:

What is the issue you're having? 18% of respondents said that Israel's response was too harsh, which came behind not harsh enough (22%) and about right (32%).

Right, I misread your post. I got distracted by your link being completely unrelated. My fault.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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This is a completely pointless derail, and I have no idea why I posted it, sorry.

Stringent fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Oct 31, 2023

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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What do people think about the argument that Israel should have been established in Germany instead of in Palestine at the end of WW2?

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Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


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How would Germans complain about being displaced by Jews in the wake of WW2?

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