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Which top contender(s) will be one-and-done? (Can choose multiple)
	New England
	Cincinnati
	Denver
	Carolina
	Arizona

kalensc: Sep 10, 2003; Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Monday, December 21th, 13h30

pre:

## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
01 N.E 12-2 5-0 9-1 Whou wTen @NYJ @Mia Clinched top-2 Seed
02 Cin 11-3 4-1 8-2 Lpit Ws.f @Den vBal W-K.C WL-Pit ?-Den

03 Den 10-4 3-2 6-4 Loak Lpit vCin vS.D W-N.E WL-K.C L-Pit ?-Cin
04 Hou 07-7 3-1 5-5 Ln.e Wind @Ten vJax W?-Jax WL-Ind

05 K.C 09-5 4-1 8-2 Ws.d Wbal vCle vOak W-Pit L-Cin WL-Den
06 Pit 09-5 2-2 6-4 Wcin Wden @Bal @Cle W-Den WL-Cin L-K.C

   NYJ 09-5 2-2 6-4 Wten Wdal vN.E @Buf 

*  Ind 06-8 3-2 4-6 Ljax Lhou @Mia vTen WL-Hou,Jax
*  Jax 06-8 2-3 5-6 Wind Latl @N.O @Hou WL-Hou,Ind

* - Indianapolis and Jacksonville can clinch the AFCS but cannot earn a wild card.

Important Common Opponent tie-breaker results:

N.E/Cin: Buf, Pit, Hou, Den ; N.E: W,W,W,W,L  Cin: W,W,L,L,? ; N.E clinched 4-1 to 2-2

Cin/NYJ: Buf, Cle, Hou, Oak ; Cin: W,W,W,L,W  NYJ: L,?,W,L,L ; Cin clinched 4-1 to 1-3

Pit/NYJ: N.E, Cle, Ind, Oak ; Pit: L,W,?,W,W  NYJ: L,?,W,W,L ; Pit can clinch, at worst tied 3-2;
         If tied in record they would be tied in AFC record as well, and if C.O is tied then;
         Look at the SoV tie-breaker and it has been clinched by Pit (currently 62-64, 44-82).

Quick Summary of Two-way Tie-breakers:

.Teams. H2H Div AFC C.O SoV SoS
------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
N.E/Cin n.a n.a tie N.E
N.E/Den Den

Cin/Den ???
Cin/Pit tie tie tie tie Pit
Cin/K.C Cin
Cin/NYJ n.a n.a tie Cin

Den/K.C tie K.C
Den/Pit Pit
Den/NYJ n.a n.a NYJ

K.C/Pit K.C
K.C/NYJ n.a n.a K.C

Pit/NYJ n.a n.a n.a Pit

Eliminated from Playoffs: 
Wk13 - Cleveland
Wk14 - Tennessee, San Diego, Baltimore, Miami
Wk15 - Oakland, Buffalo

Battle to qualify for the AFC playoffs:

New England: Clinched a spot. Can finish #1 or #2. Clinch #1 with any win, or via the Cin@Den winner losing in Wk17.

Cincinnati: Clinched a spot. Can clinch top-2 Seed with win @Den. Can finish #3 fairly easily with loss @Den. Can fall to Wild Card with 2 losses and 2 Pit wins.

Denver: Can clinch top-2 Seed with 2 wins. A loss vCin would make #3, #5, #6, and #7 Seeds all possible, due to losing tie-breakers to Cin & K.C & Pit & NYJ. Two losses would eliminate them barring K.C, Pit, or NYJ losing out.

Kansas City: Can technically clinch #2 but requires 7 specific results including road wins by Bal and S.D. AFCW crown and #3 plausible if Den loses vCin. Control destiny for #5 Seed with the easiest final two matches of all WC contenders.

Pittsburgh: Can technically clinch #2 but requires 6 specific results including road wins by Bal and S.D and either Cle or Oak to win in K.C. AFCN crown and #3 Seed technically possible but requires the Bal win @Cin among others. Have tie-breaker over NYJ so clinch at least #6 by matching them win for win. Also have t-b over Den so clinch at least #5 with two wins AND two Den losses. Don't have t-b over K.C so either need to surpass them in wins or have them surpass Den for AFCW title to get that #5 Seed edge.

New York Jets: Can finish #5, #6, or #7. Only tie-breaker edge is versus Denver, thus they can clinch by winning out AND having one of {Pit lose once OR K.C lose once OR Den lose twice} occur. Can clinch by winning once if Pit loses out OR K.C loses out.

Battle for the #1 Seed:

pre:

N.E@NYJ Cin@Den N.E@Mia Bal@Cin S.D@Den AFC #1 Seed
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -----------
  N.E      *       *       *       *    New England (16/32)

  NYJ      *      N.E      *       *    New England (08/32)

  NYJ     Cin     Mia     Bal      *    New England (02/32)
  NYJ     Cin     Mia     Cin      *    Cincinnati  (02/32)

  NYJ     Den     Mia      *      S.D   New England (02/32)
  NYJ     Den     Mia      *      Den   Denver      (02/32)

Battle for the #2 Seed:

New England, Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh could all finish #2. Requires more results, especially Cin@Den, to make a full list of scenarios a feasible endeavor.

Battle for the #3 Seed:

Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh could all finish #3, and New England's result matter since they could slide to #2 and allow Cincinnati or Denver to sneak into #1. Requires more results, especially Cin@Den, to make a full list of scenarios a feasible endeavor.

Battle for the #4 Seed:

See AFC South breakdown for the Houston, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville scenarios.

Battle for the #5 Seed:

Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and the New York Jets could all finish #5. Requires more results, especially Cin@Den, to make a full list of scenarios a feasible endeavor.

Battle for the #6 Seed:

Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and the New York Jets could all finish #6. Requires more results, especially Cin@Den, to make a full list of scenarios a feasible endeavor.

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
N.E 12-2 4-0 7-1 9-1 Whou vTen @NYJ @Mia NYJ-W?

New England has clinched the AFCE and a top-2 seed in the AFC.

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC East

Eliminated from AFCE Title: Miami, Buffalo (Wk12), New York Jets (Wk14)

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
Cin 11-3 4-1 6-1 8-2 Lpit Ws.f @Den vBal Pit-WL
Pit 09-5 2-2 6-2 6-4 Wcin Wden @Bal @Cle Cin-WL

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC West

Eliminated from AFCN Title: Cleveland (Wk12), Baltimore (Wk13)

Cin@S.F Den@Pit Cin@Den Pit@Bal Bal@Cin Pit@Cle AFCN Winner
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -----------
  Cin     Pit     Cin      *       *       *    Cincinnati (8/16)
  Cin     Pit     Den     Bal      *       *    Cincinnati (4/16)
  Cin     Pit     Den     Pit     Cin      *    Cincinnati (2/16)
  Cin     Pit     Den     Pit     Bal     Cle   Cincinnati (1/16)
  Cin     Pit     Den     Pit     Bal     Pit   Ci/Pit SoV (1/16) *Scenario's current SoV: Pit 71-90, Cin 66-94*

SoV Analysis (assuming tied at season's end at 11-5):

Cin wins: Pit,Bal,Cle,Cle,Oak,S.D,S.F,StL Buf,K.C,Sea
Pit wins: Cin,Bal,Cle,Cle,Oak,S.D,S.F,StL Ind,Den,Ari

First 8 wins are all equivalent in record so each of those teams affect Pit and Cin equally.

Consider SoV of other 3 wins, including hypothesized Wk16-17 results:

Cin: Buf 06-08, K.C 09-05, Sea 09-05
Pit: Ind 06-08, Den 11-04, Ari 12-02

Thus Pit has an 4.5 game advantage. Furthermore Cin cannot aim for just a SoV tie due to SoS.

The SoS t-b has been clinched by Pit due to having 12 shared opponents.
Two more opponents, each other, won't impact due to requiring identical records to get to SoS t-b.
Pit played N.E & Ind whereas Cin played Buf & Hou; currently N.E +6 wins vs Buf, Hou +1 win vs Ind.
At worst, N.E beats Buf by 4 wins, Hou beats Ind by 3 wins, Pit wins SoS by 1 win.

Back to SoV, where Cin must defeat Pit by 1 full SoV win.

The hypothezied SoV versus just those opponents is currently Pit: 29-14 and Cin 24-18.
At worst Pit's SoV versus those opponents will fall to 29-19.
At best Cin's SoV versus those opponents will rise to 30-18.
Thus, if any Buf loss OR K.C loss OR Sea loss OR Ind win OR Den win OR Ari win occurs,
then should Pit and Cin tie at 11-5 then Pit would clinch the AFCN due to SoV record.

Cincinnati: Clinch with win vBal OR win @Den OR Pit loss @Bal OR Pit loss @Cle OR Cin win SoV.

Pittsburgh: Must win @@Bal & @Cle, AND have Cin lose vBal (thus tying H2H and AFCN records) AND have Cin lose @Den (tying C.O and AFC records) AND then clinch via SoV by having any one of the following occur (Buf loss OR K.C loss OR Sea loss OR Ind win OR Den win OR Ari win).

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
Hou 07-7 3-1 3-5 5-5 Ln.e Wind @Ten vJax Ind-WL Jax-W?
Ind 06-8 3-2 2-5 4-6 Ljax Lhou @Mia vTen Hou-WL Jax-WL
Jax 05-9 2-3 2-5 5-6 Wind Latl @N.O @Hou Hou-L? Ind-WL

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC South

Eliminated from AFCS Title: Tennessee (Wk14)

Hou@Ind Atl@Jax Ind@Mia Hou@Ten Jax@N.O Ten@Ind Jax@Hou AFCS Winner
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -----------
  Hou     Atl     Mia     Hou      *       *       *    Houston      (8/32)

  Hou     Atl     Ind     Hou      *       *      Hou   Houston      (4/32)
  Hou     Atl     Ind     Hou      *      Ten     Jax   Houston      (2/32)
  Hou     Atl     Ind     Hou      *      Ind     Jax   Hou/Ind SoV  (2/32) *Scenario's current SoV: Hou 51-67, Ind 48-72*


  Hou     Atl     Ind     Ten      *      Ind     Jax   Indianapolis (2/32)
  Hou     Atl     Ind     Ten      *      Ten     Hou   Houston      (2/32)
  Hou     Atl     Ind     Ten      *      Ind     Hou   Hou/Ind SoV  (2/32) *Scenario's current SoV: Hou 53-64, Ind 49-71*
  Hou     Atl     Ind     Ten     N.O     Ten     Jax   Hou/Ind SoV  (1/32) *Scenario's current SoV: Hou 49-53, Ind 46-58*
  Hou     Atl     Ind     Ten     Jax     Ten     Jax   Jacksonville (1/32)

  Hou     Atl     Mia     Ten      *       *      Hou   Houston      (4/32)
  Hou     Atl     Mia     Ten      *      Ind     Jax   Indianapolis (2/32)
  Hou     Atl     Mia     Ten     N.O     Ten     Jax   Houston      (1/32)
  Hou     Atl     Mia     Ten     Jax     Ten     Jax   Jacksonville (1/32)

Houston: Clinch with two wins OR (one win AND one Ind loss) OR (two Ind losses AND one Jax loss) OR (one of the latter SoV t-b scenarios). Defeating the Titans next Sunday nearly clinches the division, and at worst they'd be in a SoV t-b.

Indianapolis: To clinch outright they'd need Hou to lose out, since any Texans win makes it impossible for Indy to clinch the Div, C.O, or AFC tie-breaker. Then Indy would need to win vTen to surpass Hou and finish ahead of Jax. Every other scenario either requires a SoV t-b (not leaning in their favor) or eliminates them. Note that every one of their scenarios to clinch involves a Ten win vs Hou, aside from the most realistic one which is Ind winning out and Hou losing vs Jax and Ind taking the SoV t-b.

Jacksonville: Must win out to get to 7-9 AND have Ten win vHou to drop Hou to 7-9 and beat them on AFC t-b AND have Ten win @Ind to limit Ind to 7-9 and beat them on AFC record.

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
Den 10-4 3-2 6-1 6-4 Loak Lpit vCin vS.D K.C-WL
K.C 09-5 4-1 3-4 8-2 Ws.d Wbal vCle vOak Den-WL
Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC North

Eliminated from AFCW Title: San Diego (Wk11), Oakland (Wk13)

Den@Pit K.C@Bal Cin@Den Cle@K.C S.D@Den Oak@K.C AFCW Winner
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -----------
  Pit     K.C     Den     Cle      *       *    Denver (04/16)

  Pit     K.C     Den     K.C     Den      *    Denver (02/16)
  Pit     K.C     Den     K.C     S.D     Oak   Denver (01/16)
  Pit     K.C     Den     K.C     S.D     K.C   K.City (01/16)

  Pit     K.C     Cin     Cle     Den      *    Denver (02/16)
  Pit     K.C     Cin     Cle     S.D     Oak   Denver (01/16)
  Pit     K.C     Cin     Cle     S.D     K.C   K.City (01/16)

  Pit     K.C     Cin     K.C     Den     Oak   Denver (01/16)
  Pit     K.C     Cin     K.C     S.D      *    K.City (02/16)
  Pit     K.C     Cin     K.C     Den     K.C   K.City (01/16)

Denver: Clinch with any combination of two {Den wins & K.C losses}. Despite their recent stumbles, a win at home vS.D seems quite likely. The other three matches though are K.C hosting two sub-.500 teams and the Bengals traveling to Denver. Cin@Den could rival K.C's win over Pit in terms of highest impact on the final AFC seedings.

Kansas City: They split the H2H so they can clinch by tying Denver in wins (which will ensure winning the divisional t-b). Thus, clinch with any combination of three {K.C wins & Den losses}. One feasible path: win out (very reasonable), have Den lose @Pit (check), and have Cin get a healthy Dalton back (or rely on a mistake-free A.J) and win @Den; K.C wins divison at 11-5 due to a superior AFCW record.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Dec 21, 2015

# ? Dec 8, 2015 01:51

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# ? May 5, 2024 20:39

kalensc: Sep 10, 2003; Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Monday, December 14th, 13h30

pre:

## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
01 Car 13-0 3-0 8-0 Watl @NYG @Atl vT.B 
02 Ari 11-2 4-1 8-1 Wmin @Phi vG.B VSea W-Min W?-Sea ?-G.B
03 G.B 09-4 3-2 7-3 Wdal @Oak @Ari vMin W-Sea W?-Min
04 Was 06-7 2-2 6-4 Wchi vBuf @Phi @Dal W?-Phi WL-NYG L?-Dal

05 Sea 08-5 2-2 6-4 Wbal vCle vStL @Ari W-Min,Chi L-G.B L?-Ari
06 Min 08-5 3-1 5-4 Lari vChi vNYG @G.B W-StL,Atl L-Sea W?-Chi L?-G.B

   T.B 06-7 3-2 5-4 Ln.o @StL vChi @Car W-Atl2
   Atl 06-7 0-3 4-6 Lcar @Jax vCar vN.O W-Phi L-Min,T.B2
   Phi 06-7 2-2 3-6 Wbuf vAri vWas @NYG L-Phi Was-L? NYG-W? Dal-WL
   NYG 06-7 2-3 4-5 Wmia vCar @Min vPhi Was-WL Phi-L? Dal-WL

   Chi 05-8 1-3 2-7 Lwas @Min @T.B vDet L-Sea
   StL 05-8 3-1 4-5 Wdet vT.B @Sea @S.F L-Min
   N.O 05-8 2-3 4-6 Wt.b vDet vJax @Atl

*  Dal 04-9 3-2 1-5 3-8 Lg.b vNYJ @Buf vWas Was-W? Phi-WL NYG-WL

* - Dallas can clinch the NFCE but cannot earn a wild card.

Eliminated from Playoffs: Wk14 - San Francisco, Detroit

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
Was 06-7 2-2 2-5 6-4 Wchi vBuf @Phi @Dal Phi-W? NYG-WL Dal-L?
Phi 06-7 2-2 4-4 3-6 Wbuf vAri vWas @NYG Was-L? NYG-W? Dal-WL
NYG 06-7 2-3 3-4 4-5 @Mia vCar @Min vPhi Was-WL Phi-L? Dal-WL
Dal 04-9 3-2 1-5 3-8 Lg.b vNYJ @Buf vWas Was-W? Phi-WL NYG-WL

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East

ṱ͉͓͕̳̙̖h̢̲͙i̲̣̜s͙̳͖̩̩ ̫͖̯̰̕r͏̱̦͓ac̼̦̤̭̭̘e҉̩̣̺̺͓ ̛̰̻i̹͓̦͍̯̣͎͜s̨ ̡F̗͔̱͖͝U͉̦̟c̱̗ḳ̖̖̲͚̩͞E̜̞͢D̫̱͙̼̱ ̱͖͕̹̝͓̙u͖̕P̷͓̭̞̮̳̯

Washington: c̥l̟͕i͙͙͓̮̼n͔͔c͈̜̘ͅh͎̝͔e̴̦̫d͚̠ ̺͞r̭̟a̢̟̜̗̹̻̦ͅc͎̹i̜͔̫̳͕̣̱s̤̯̰m̴̤̦̦ ̧͚͈̫ti̮t̖͙̳̹̜͚͔͝l̺̮͙̯̙̪̀e̖̞

Philadelphia: r͈̝͙̼̘i͍̥̣͈̻̦ḓ͈͜ì̤n̛̩̹͇͈ ̝̳̤͉̯̦w̘͓̙̜i҉̪̣̠l̨͔͕d ̙̻̤̹͓̰e͓̯͓͖͎̥͙r̕y͏̞d҉͎̜͖̟̰ḁ͖̕y̜̪

New York Giants: ḥ͉̙e̜̣͈͔̯̫r͕̭̙e̪̝̗̩̯͠ ͔̩t̙̲̦̗ͅh̪̣̪͡e͔̼͎̲̤͇̲r͖̟̜e̝͠ ̷͎̻͙b̼̺͚̙̦̀e͍͉ ̞̼͕͍͉̳̜br͎͖̙a̫̥̮̺d͍̙̤̮̱̤y͖̻̳̼s͙ĺ̝̩͈̺̺̩̝a̹̹̲̖͡y̤ẹ̡rs̟̝͓̱͘

Dallas: r͏o̘̘̤̼͚m͎̖͝o i̭̰̝̬̕n͡ ̖̜̝p͘ẹ̞̫̣͎̜a̖̙͓͚̠͙c͈͇͓̝̪̺͓e͇͎̗̜̼̱͞ͅ

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
G.B 09-4 3-2 5-1 7-3 Wdal @Oak @Ari vMin Min-W?
Min 08-5 3-1 4-4 5-4 Lari vChi vNYG @G.B G.B-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC West

Eliminated from NFCN Title: Detroit, Chicago (Wk14)

G.B@Oak Chi@Min G.B@Ari NYG@Min Min@G.B NFCN Winner
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -----------
   *       *       *       *      G.B   Green Bay (16/32)
  G.B     Chi     G.B      *      Min   Green Bay (02/32)
  G.B     Chi     Ari     NYG     Min   Green Bay (01/32)
  G.B     Min     G.B     NYG     Min   Green Bay (01/32)
  Oak     Chi     G.B     NYG     Min   Green Bay (01/32)

  Oak     Min      *       *      Min   Minnesota (04/32)
  G.B     Min     Ari      *      Min   Minnesota (02/32)
  Oak     Chi     Ari      *      Min   Minnesota (02/32)
  Oak     Chi     G.B     Min     Min   Minnesota (01/32)
  G.B     Min     G.B     Min     Min   Minnesota (01/32)
  G.B     Chi     Ari     Min     Min   Minnesota (01/32)

Green Bay: A win vMin in Wk17 would be enough to clinch. Assuming they lose that match, then they'd be tied in overall record and have split the H2H but they'd have lost the Div t-b, thus they'd have to get any combo of three of {G.B wins, Min losses} in Wk15 and Wk16.

Minnesota: They must win @G.B in Wk17 to have any chance. Prior to that they must maintain no worse than a 1-game deficit, thus they'll stay alive with any combo of two of {Min wins, G.B losses}. Getting three or four {Min wins, G.B losses} over the next two weeks also would allow them to clinch with a tie in Wk17.

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ----
Car 13-0 3-0 7-0 8-0 Watl @NYG @Atl vT.B

Carolina has clinched the NFCS and a top-2 seed in the NFC.

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC East

Eliminated from NFCS Title: Tampa Bay & New Orleans (Wk12), Atlanta (Wk13)

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Relevant Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----------------
Ari 11-2 4-1 6-1 8-1 Wmin @Phi vG.B VSea Sea-W?
Sea 08-5 2-2 5-2 6-4 Wbal vCle vStL @Ari Ari-L?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North

Eliminated from NFCW Title: San Francisco (Wk12), St. Louis (Wk13)

Ari@Phi Cle@Sea G.B@Ari StL@Sea Sea@Ari NFCW Title
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ----------
  Ari      *       *       *       *    Arizona (16/32)
  Phi     Cle      *       *       *    Arizona (08/32)
  Phi     Sea     Ari      *       *    Arizona (04/32)
  Phi     Sea     G.B     StL      *    Arizona (02/32)
  Phi     Sea     G.B     Sea     Ari   Arizona (01/32)
  Phi     Sea     G.B     Sea     Sea   A/S SoV (01/32) *Scenario's current SoV: Ari 63-85, Sea 60-88*

Arizona: Clinch with any win OR any Sea loss OR winning SoV tie-breaker.

Seattle: Must win out AND have Ari lose out AND win SoV tie-breaker.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Dec 15, 2015

# ? Dec 8, 2015 01:52

kalensc: Sep 10, 2003; Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

pre:

Tm.   Ovr W   Ovr L     Ovr %	SoS W	SoS L	SoS %   Wk16    Wk17
---   -----   -----     -----   -----   -----   -----   ----    ----
TEN	3	11	0.214	109	115	0.487	HOU	@IND
CLE	3	11	0.214	120	104	0.536	@KC	PIT
BAL	4	10	0.286	116	108	0.518	PIT	@CIN
S.D	4	10	0.286	116	108	0.518	@OAK	@DEN
DAL	4	10	0.286	121	103	0.540	@BUF	WSH
S.F	4	10	0.286	123	101	0.549	@DET	STL
JAX	5	9	0.357	104	120	0.464	@NO	@HOU
MIA	5	9	0.357	106	118	0.473	IND	NE
N.O	5	9	0.357	115	109	0.513	JAX	@ATL
DET	5	9	0.357	119	105	0.531	SF	@CHI
CHI	5	9	0.357	121	103	0.540	@TB	DET
T.B	6	8	0.429	107	117	0.478	CHI	@CAR
NYG	6	8	0.429	111	113	0.496	@MIN	PHI
IND	6	8	0.429	113	111	0.504	@MIA	TEN
OAK	6	8	0.429	114	110	0.509	SD	@KC
PHI	6	8	0.429	115	109	0.513	WSH	@NYG
BUF	6	8	0.429	116	108	0.518	DAL	NYJ
STL	6	8	0.429	119	105	0.531	@SEA	@SF

kalensc fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Dec 22, 2015

# ? Dec 8, 2015 01:52

kalensc: Sep 10, 2003; Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Other Threads & Other Resources

Earlier thread for discussing playoff predictions by No Butt Stuff.

Everyone's favorite ESPN PLAYOFF MACHINE.

Football Outsider's DVOA Playoff Odds Report.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 01:57

Parmesan Basil: Nov 12, 2008; TIME IS THE FIRE IN WHICH WE BURN THE GAME CLOCK

My favorite thread of the late-season!

# ? Dec 8, 2015 02:27

Nissin Cup Nudist: Sep 3, 2011; Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land

The NFC East owns

no team deserves a playoff spot

# ? Dec 8, 2015 02:39

Blind Pineapple: Oct 27, 2010; For The Perfect Fruit 'n' Kaman

1 part gin
1 part pomegranate syrup
Fill with pineapple juice
Serve over crushed ice; College Slice

Ah yes, the old Week 13 playoff machine scenarios:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...3~1~400791691~1

# ? Dec 8, 2015 09:05

LiquidFriend: Apr 5, 2005

Blind Pineapple posted:

Ah yes, the old Week 13 playoff machine scenarios:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...3~1~400791691~1

This would own because it would mean Alex Smith probably going to the Super Bowl which would make PB explode.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 09:09

Gyro Zeppeli: Jul 19, 2012; sure hope no-one throws me off a bridge

Now the Raiders have been eliminated, I'm into that most glorious of times: Spite-picks.

I'm now cheering Buffalo for the next few weeks just to really gently caress up the NFC East standings. Because if any division deserves to be hosed even more than it already is, it's NFCE.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 12:53

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

Here's a beautiful thing:

axeil posted:

News

The following can happen in the NFC East, sending the Eagles to the playoffs as the winner of a 4-way 6-10 tie
code:
PHI 	      DAL 	       WAS 	        NYG
BUF - L       GB - W 	       CHI - L 	        MIA - L
ARI - L       NYJ - W          BUF - L 	        CAR - L
WAS - W       BUF - L 	       PHI - L 	        MIN - L
NYG - L       WAS - L 	       DAL - W 	        PHI - W
Views

Hail Satan

axeil fucked around with this message at 13:45 on Dec 8, 2015

# ? Dec 8, 2015 13:41

No Butt Stuff: Jun 10, 2004

I put together my dream scenario while avoiding work yesterday.

The NFC East all finish at 6-10.

What a time to be alive.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:05

Gyro Zeppeli: Jul 19, 2012; sure hope no-one throws me off a bridge

No Butt Stuff posted:

I put together my dream scenario while avoiding work yesterday.

The NFC East all finish at 6-10.

What a time to be alive.

The cherry on top of that is, if the NFC East all finish at 6-10, the loving EAGLES go to the playoffs.

This season is garbage and I love it.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:06

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

i can't remember: could Arizona and Seattle play each other in the divisional round?

If they could murder one another before playing Carolina that'd be great......

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:06

No Butt Stuff: Jun 10, 2004

Hijo Del Helmsley posted:

The cherry on top of that is, if the NFC East all finish at 6-10, the loving EAGLES go to the playoffs.

This season is garbage and I love it.

I somehow made it so the Cowboys did, but I was in a hurry and only filled out games involving the NFC East. I'll see if I can replicate it so that Jerry's inability to IR Romo actually pays off.

Okay: Here's how before I bother filling everything else out.

Week 14: Washington is the only NFCE team to win.
Week 15: No NFCE team wins.
Week 16: Cowboys and Eagles win.
Week 17: Cowboys and Giants win.

Cowboys are in?

e2: yes, Cowboys would be 4-2 in the division and would win.

No Butt Stuff fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Dec 8, 2015

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:32

No Butt Stuff: Jun 10, 2004

Also here's another calculator:

http://chibears85.github.io/nflschedulepicker/?a=-WapWqmmlmamVppZmllqWqlqZVmqZVamWpaqapZaqaqmWllZVlmVmaappWmWllmVZAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA_

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:38

Qwijib0: Apr 10, 2007; Who needs on-field skills when you can dance like this?; Fun Shoe

FizFashizzle posted:

i can't remember: could Arizona and Seattle play each other in the divisional round?

If they could murder one another before playing Carolina that'd be great......

It is-- with the vikings and packers on our tail, if we drop v. min and v. GB, we end up hosting Seattle. Flip a few more games and they host us.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:39

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

edit* stoopid

FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Dec 8, 2015

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:41

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

FizFashizzle posted:

i can't remember: could Arizona and Seattle play each other in the divisional round?

If they could murder one another before playing Carolina that'd be great......

Sure, if the Cardinals are the 2, which is a safe assumption, and the Seahawks are the 5, you need the 6 to beat the 3 (so, presumably Vikings over Packers).

If the Seahawks are the 6, then you're playing them no matter what if they win in the wildcard room.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:42

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

Kalli posted:

Sure, if the Cardinals are the 2, which is a safe assumption, and the Seahawks are the 5, you need the 6 to beat the 3 (so, presumably Vikings over Packers).

If the Seahawks are the 6, then you're playing them no matter what if they win in the wildcard room.

I do not want to see Seattle in Carolina.

Nope.

NOOOOOOOPE

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:45

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

From what I can tell from the ESPN playoff machine, if both the Jets and Steelers go 3-1 to finish out the season, the only way the Jets make it in as the 6 if their loss is against the Cowboys. They'll have to beat both NE and BUF.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 15:56

fsif: Jul 18, 2003

Thanks for this. It's a good thread.

The Bills helmet is white now, though.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 16:17

FooF: Mar 26, 2010

#1 - Chiefs (11-5)
#2 - Bengals (11-5)
#3 - Jets (11-5)
#4 - Jags (8-8)
#5 - Steelers (11-5)
#6 - Broncos (11-5)

Pats miss the playoffs... :getin:

# ? Dec 8, 2015 16:27

wandler20: Nov 13, 2002; How many Championships?

The Bucs have a chance and that is all I could possibly ask for at this point in a season.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 16:29

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Pats will get their poo poo together and the Steelers will be a pal and beat both the Bengals and Broncos.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 16:29

elime anning: Nov 19, 2002; Morbid Hound

Thank you for making this thread every year! It's my favorite.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 16:32

LightReaper: May 3, 2007

Thanks for the effort put into this OP, kalensc, as a relative newbie this stuff is super helpful.

What's been interesting for me as a fan in my first regular season as it comes down to the final stretch, is coming to support teams that aren't even 'my' team because of the effect their games have on my team's playoff chances. For example; this week I find myself (and I imagine many Bills fans) a Bengals fan, hoping for them to knock the Steelers down a peg.

A-a-andy Dalton?

# ? Dec 8, 2015 16:52

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

LightReaper posted:

Thanks for the effort put into this OP, kalensc, as a relative newbie this stuff is super helpful.

What's been interesting for me as a fan in my first regular season as it comes down to the final stretch, is coming to support teams that aren't even 'my' team because of the effect their games have on my team's playoff chances. For example; this week I find myself (and I imagine many Bills fans) a Bengals fan, hoping for them to knock the Steelers down a peg.

A-a-andy Dalton?

it's warm under the dragon's wing....

# ? Dec 8, 2015 17:00

DariusLikewise: Oct 4, 2008; You wore that on Halloween?

The only scenario I could still get the Rams in the playoffs is if they win out. Except in this very specific scenario they can slip in at 7-9, do it Jeff, be decently mediocre and save your job for 1 more year.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...3~1~400791691~2

# ? Dec 8, 2015 17:10

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

No Butt Stuff posted:

I somehow made it so the Cowboys did, but I was in a hurry and only filled out games involving the NFC East. I'll see if I can replicate it so that Jerry's inability to IR Romo actually pays off.

Okay: Here's how before I bother filling everything else out.

Week 14: Washington is the only NFCE team to win.
Week 15: No NFCE team wins.
Week 16: Cowboys and Eagles win.
Week 17: Cowboys and Giants win.

Cowboys are in?

e2: yes, Cowboys would be 4-2 in the division and would win.

the scenario i made would put the eagles in.

code:

PHI 	      DAL 	       WAS 	        NYG
BUF - L       GB - W 	       CHI - L 	        MIA - L
ARI - L       NYJ - W          BUF - L 	        CAR - L
WAS - W       BUF - L 	       PHI - L 	        MIN - L
NYG - L       WAS - L 	       DAL - W 	        PHI - W

# ? Dec 8, 2015 17:22

kalensc: Sep 10, 2003; Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

FYI my two jobs have tied up most of my time in Nov-Dec, which is why the thread launched 3~ weeks later than I anticipated, but I'm noting the questions asked throughout the thread and I'll integrate the answers into new posts as well as the OPs when applicable. If there's other requests for reasonable stuff (can team X make a miracle run to a Wild Card, can team Y draft top 3, how do I make New England, Cincinnati, and Denver all be Wild Cards or worse, etc) then please bold the question itself so I can find easily when catching up.

Stuff like axeil's 4-way tie scenario, LightReaper's question about what Bengals need to root for in terms of seeding, and so on, will be added in here and there when I have 20 minutes to type up the napkin analysis I accumulated during meetings and metro rides.

Standings and tables updates will usually occur Monday, with the MNF stuff sneaking in mid-week.

Thanks!

FYI, Philadelphia can be 6-9 and clinch the division before the final week. \ :unsmith:

# ? Dec 8, 2015 18:40

Nissin Cup Nudist: Sep 3, 2011; Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land

axeil posted:

the scenario i made would put the eagles in.

code:

PHI 	      DAL 	       WAS 	        NYG
BUF - L       GB - W 	       CHI - L 	        MIA - L
ARI - L       NYJ - W          BUF - L 	        CAR - L
WAS - W       BUF - L 	       PHI - L 	        MIN - L
NYG - L       WAS - L 	       DAL - W 	        PHI - W

most of this is actually really feasible except Dallas beating GB

NFC East!

# ? Dec 8, 2015 18:43

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

Oh, here's the wildcard standings if that helps:

AFC:
5. Chiefs 7-5
6. Jets 7-5
-------------------
7. Steelers 7-5
8. Bills 6-6
9. Texans 6-6
10. Raiders 5-7
11. Dolphins 5-7
12. Jaguars 4-8
13. Ravens 4-8
14. Chargers 3-9
15. Titans 3-9

Eliminated: Browns 2-10

NFC:
5. Vikings 8-4
6. Seahawks 7-5
------------------------
7. Buccaneers 6-6
8. Falcons 6-6
9. Eagles 5-7
10. Giants 5-7
11. Bears 5-7
12. Rams
13. Lions
14. Saints
15. 49ers
16. Cowboys

# ? Dec 8, 2015 18:46

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

So you're saying there's a chance

# ? Dec 8, 2015 18:48

marioinblack: Sep 21, 2007; Number 1 Bullshit

Bucs need to win their next three and probably hopes Carolina drops a game so they're not going for 16-0. Minnesota could very easily lose two games with that schedule.

I'm talking about Bucs playoff chances, what world do I live in?

# ? Dec 8, 2015 18:54

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

I had to check, but yeah, the Cowboys can end up with a wildcard without any ties.

They just need a kind of incredible number of things to happen for that to occur.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 18:55

ChewyLSB: Jan 13, 2008; Destroy the core

DOOP posted:

most of this is actually really feasible except Dallas beating GB

NFC East!

Dallas can beat Buffalo instead and its the same net result.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 19:01

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

LightReaper posted:

Thanks for the effort put into this OP, kalensc, as a relative newbie this stuff is super helpful.

What's been interesting for me as a fan in my first regular season as it comes down to the final stretch, is coming to support teams that aren't even 'my' team because of the effect their games have on my team's playoff chances. For example; this week I find myself (and I imagine many Bills fans) a Bengals fan, hoping for them to knock the Steelers down a peg.

A-a-andy Dalton?

yeah

# ? Dec 8, 2015 19:02

kalensc: Sep 10, 2003; Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Kalli posted:

Oh, here's the wildcard standings if that helps:

Yea, NFC divsional stuff and then both wild card races are next on the docket. Both WCs are silly right now though, half the league +1/0/-1 games from the #6.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 19:02

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

FYI my two jobs have tied up most of my time in Nov-Dec, which is why the thread launched 3~ weeks later than I anticipated, but I'm noting the questions asked throughout the thread and I'll integrate the answers into new posts as well as the OPs when applicable. If there's other requests for reasonable stuff (can team X make a miracle run to a Wild Card, can team Y draft top 3, how do I make New England, Cincinnati, and Denver all be Wild Cards or worse, etc) then please bold the question itself so I can find easily when catching up.

Stuff like axeil's 4-way tie scenario, LightReaper's question about what Bengals need to root for in terms of seeding, and so on, will be added in here and there when I have 20 minutes to type up the napkin analysis I accumulated during meetings and metro rides.

Standings and tables updates will usually occur Monday, with the MNF stuff sneaking in mid-week.

Thanks!

FYI, Philadelphia can be 6-9 and clinch the division before the final week. \/

Here's something someone on reddit wrote up about the Eagles tiebreakers in the East, to help you out.

quote:

Eagles go 1-1 against the Bills/Cardinals, and beat the Skins and Giants. Record: 8-8 overall, 4-2 in the NFC East.

Giants lose to the Eagles and manage to beat the Dolphins, Panthers, and Vikings. Record: 8-8 overall, 2-4 in the NFC East.

Eagles win tiebreaker by head-to-head record.

The Redskins/Cowboys play again in Week 17, so there are 2 variants here, but each leaves the loser at a best possible finish of 7-9, so let's ignore those- here are the scenarios in which each team wins week 17:

Redskins lose to the Eagles and beat the Bears, Bills, and Cowboys. Record 8-8 overall, 3-3 in the NFC East.

Eagles win tiebreaker by division record.

Cowboys win out, defeating the Packers, Jets, Bills, and Redskins. Record: 8-8 overall, 4-2 in the NFC East.

This is where it gets interesting, as that would put the Cowboys in a tie with the Eagles. But regardless of which team the Eagles beat between the Bills/Cards, the Eagles would still own the resulting tiebreaker. The next tiebreaker after division record is record against common opponents, followed by conference record.

If the Eagles beat the Bills and lose to the Cardinals, they would have an 8-4 record against shared opponents, while the Cowboys, even if they win every remaining game, can only get as high as 7-5.

Eagles win tiebreaker by record against common opponents.

If the Eagles beat the Cardinals, and lose to the Bills, both teams would be tied at a 7-5 record in common games, so it goes to NFC record. In that scenario, the Eagles would have a 6-6 record in the NFC, and the Cowboys can only finish as high as 5-7.

Eagles win tiebreaker by conference record.

Keep in mind that all of these are all assuming that the other teams in the NFC East win every other possible game, which is unlikely to happen. If all 3 teams lose one game elsewhere, the Eagles could lose to both the Cards and Bills and would still own the tiebreakers at 7-9, as they would at least tie for the division record, and Dallas's loss in that scenario would be against a shared opponent or an NFC team.

# ? Dec 8, 2015 19:17

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# ? May 5, 2024 20:39

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Cavauro posted:

yeah

This owns

# ? Dec 8, 2015 19:33

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > NFL Playoffs Race - Better Late Than Never

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