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... I hate the steelers n' ay'thang, but wtf was that poo poo, Parm?
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Dec 10, 2015 03:30
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Chilichimp posted:... It's called a joke, friend Chilichimp. That word I made up isn't in the dictionary and I was making a fun play on words. Everything I said about the Steelers is correct though.
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Dec 10, 2015 03:38
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Parmesan Basil posted:It's called a joke, friend Chilichimp. That word I made up isn't in the dictionary and I was making a fun play on words. Everything I said about the Steelers is correct though. *ping* gently caress the Steelers.
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Dec 10, 2015 06:38
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I think I just convinced myself that the Bills have a better playoff chance than the Jets Schedule: Bills (6-6, 3-2 division) @PHI, @WAS, vs DAL, vs NYJ Jets (7-5, 2-2 division) vs TEN, @DAL, vs NE, @ BUF Given the Bills' division record and previous win against the Jets, a win against the Jets will will clinch the tiebreaker over them. All they need to do is be tied or 1 game back of the Jets come Week 17, and given their soft schedule I think that's very possible. Figure they go 2-1 against the NFC East and the Jets go 2-1 (loss to NE). That would put the Bills in a potential win and in given what's going on in the rest of the league. If the Bills go 3-0 while the Jets go 1-2 or worse the Bills clinch the #2 spot in the division regardless of the outcome of the game, so long as one of the Jets' losses is to the Pats. Speaking of the rest of the league...the Bills have a great shot at a wild card spot...assuming they're competing against the Steelers. The Steelers are 4-4 in conference games while the Bills are 6-5. Since a win against the Jets is pretty much required to get the Bills into the playoff hunt that would put them at 7-5. The Steelers would have to win out (@ CIN, vs DEN, @ BAL, @ CLE) to beat the Bills' conference record, thus giving the Bills the edge in a matchup against the Steelers. If they tie it would come down to I believe a strength of victory tiebreaker, but given the Steelers' tough schedule I doubt they can finish better than 2-2. There's also a chance if the Chiefs poo poo the bed they could take their spot, but the Chiefs strong conference record (6-2) makes it highly unlikely they could pass them. So the short of it for Bills fans? 1. Be no more than 1 game behind the Jets come Week 17 2. Beat the Jets in Week 17 3. Steelers must lose AT LEAST 1 of their last 4 games and finish with a record equal to or less than the Bills, although ideally you want them to lose 2 That's it! Then the Bills are going to the playoffs for the first time in my memory. I really hope it happens 
axeil fucked around with this message at 06:52 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 06:49
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So occasionally I look at sites that give percentages to enter the playoffs, such as these: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html Some of them use a 50/50 method of determining future results, while others use a weighted method based on team strength. But because these weighted numbers are different for each site the percentages vary across them. For example: PlayoffStatus.com (weighted)  SportsClubStats.com (weighted)  SportsClubStats.com (50/50)  The probabilities for the Colts qualifying in these examples are 66%, 56.5%, and 58.2%, respectively. Granted it's not much of a percentage difference, but it makes me feel uncertain about their methodology. I find it weird that SportsClubStats weights against the Colts a few percentage points below the random coin flip outcome (-2%), but PlayoffStatus weights the Colts many percentage points above it (+8%). My question: Is there any merit to using these sites? I know it's hard trying to use numbers to determine the outcome of a chaotic human event, but perhaps there's a site out there with trustworthy methodology. I don't know, I'm getting a dubious feeling from them, and I don't see any posts citing them here.
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Dec 10, 2015 11:11
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Donkwich posted:So occasionally I look at sites that give percentages to enter the playoffs, such as these: I used to use them but they're not very intelligent systems as they tend not to factor in recent performance. I think ESPN's FPI and FO's Playoff Report are fairly accurate as they're based on a power ranking system. You can quibble with the power ranking system but at the end of the day they're coming up with some method for figuring out the whole league. These sites aren't as thorough in figuring out the percentages, but it's not bad to get a ballpark estimate.
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Dec 10, 2015 13:58
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I have created a masterpiece! Featuring: *A four way 6-10 tie in the NFC East, with everyone at 3-3 in the division! (Philly makes the playoffs)! *A four way 7-9 tie in the AFC South, with everyone at 3-3 in the division! (Tennessee makes the playoffs)! *A four way tie atop the AFC between the Broncos (5th seed), Patriots (3rd seed), Bengals (2nd seed) and Chiefs (1st seed)! *Ties for both the NFC North and West, with Green Bay and Minnesota finishing 10-6 (Green Bay is the 3rd seed, Minnesota gets left out) and Seattle and Arizona finishing 11-5 (Seattle is the 2nd seed, Arizona is the 5th)! *Tampa Bay stealing the 6th seed from Minnesota by improbably finishing 10-6! *A three way tie for the AFC 6th seed, with the Jets taking it over the Steelers and Bills! *Only one team finishing below 6-10 (The Cleveland Browns, of course), creating a huge dog pile between 10 different teams at 6-10 and another 5 teams at 7-9 (and that's not counting the two teams with those records in the playoffs)! *And the Chicago Bears, who managed to not play a part in any of the above ties, finishing a boring 8-8 and picking in the middle of the draft, thus stalling any sort of great retooling that could bring them success any time soon. The fictional playoffs: Wild Card: AFC: Denver v. Tennessee New England v. New York NFC: Green Bay v. Tampa Bay Arizona v. Philadelphia Divisional: AFC: Kansas City v. Denver New England v. Cincinnati NFC: Carolina v. Arizona Seattle v. Green Bay Conference: AFC: New England v. Denver NFC: Carolina v. Seattle Super Bowl: Carolina v. New England (wait that still ended up boring) Yoshifan823 fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 15:39
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Yoshifan823 posted:I have created a masterpiece! Welp, we've done it. We don't need to make any more wacky playoff scenarios as I don't think anyone else can cram in as much crazy as this one scenario has. Oh and the best part of this is that Philly clinches the division at 6-9 in Week 16.
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Dec 10, 2015 16:15
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Yoshifan823 posted:I have created a masterpiece! Should have sent a poet. This is the Mona Lisa of Clownball. 
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Dec 10, 2015 16:30
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Well I have decided I would rather see Tom Brady cry then have the Colts beat the Chiefs in hilarious fashion in the playoffs so Go Texans I want to see some tears.
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Dec 10, 2015 16:35
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axeil posted:
Thanks for this. The Bills playoff hopes do exist (and not just in a Dumb and Dumber type way), but it's hard for me to see them running the table, even against a soft schedule. The one thing you can say about the NFC East teams is that they have a knack for pulling off unexpected victories. If Buffalo can sweep the Jets, I'll be satisfied.
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Dec 10, 2015 17:50
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Carolina is obviously going to go undefeated in the regular season only to lose their first game in the playoffs on a field goal.
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Dec 10, 2015 17:51
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As a relative football newbie and New England-born Bengals fan, all I'm hoping for is for the Bengals to break their 25 year streak of no playoff wins. However, being surrounded by Patriots fans has made me paranoid that Cincinnati will somehow end up playing New England in their first playoff game (Bengals Seed #2, Pats Seed #3), and get stomped out of the playoffs without a win again. Luckily, that is an unlikely scenario in the first place, and obviously Andy Dalton is going to break the Prime Time curse and we are all gonna ride the Tiger Train right to the Superbowl. 
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Dec 10, 2015 18:08
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Rabble posted:Carolina is obviously going to go undefeated in the regular season only to lose their first game in the playoffs 63-0 to the 6-10 Eagles. ftfy also I would gladly sacrifice my own team's playoff chances for a ridiculous clownball scenario like the 6-10 NFC East champs shutting out every opponent on their way to winning the Super Bowl
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Dec 10, 2015 18:12
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Actually, re: Buffalo playoff hopes, the Steelers/Bengals matchup this weekend is super important, arguably more so than the Bills' game this weekend. Before getting to conference record (where Buffalo has a big leg up), we have to look at common opponents. Buffalo is 1–4 in those games while Pittsburgh is 1–3; a Bengals loss would bring the Steeler to 1–4 in those games. So, in a nutshell, Buffalo will have a tiebreaker over the Steelers if the Bengals win this weekend, but Pittsburgh will own the tiebreaker with a victory (as well as remaining a game up on the Bills, of course). But the Bills will lose to the Cowboys in the Matt Cassel revenge game somehow so this will all be moot.
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Dec 10, 2015 18:35
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Does anyone know if 538 is still doing those cool "this is how much each game means to each team" charts they did last year?
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Dec 10, 2015 19:29
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The New York Times has a fairly detailed simulator this year.
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Dec 11, 2015 05:39
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The Panthers have clinched a bye week in the playoffs.
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Dec 11, 2015 05:47
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I thought Carolina needed a win or a loss by the Vikings AND the Packers to clinch a bye
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Dec 11, 2015 05:48
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Carolina beat Green Bay, Vikings are now at 5 losses. Even if both are 12-4, Carolina wins via head to head, no? Edit: Didn't factor in them, Cardinals and Packers all being 12-4. I'm sure some form of shenanigans causes Carolina to get knocked down. Kirios fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Dec 11, 2015 |
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Dec 11, 2015 05:52
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I'm not really sure, most sites claim Minnesota and Green Bay need to lose (if Carolina doesn't win). It's possible for Carolina, Arizona, and Green Bay to all end up with the same record. Since no individual team beat the other two, it would go to conference record I think (and if Carolina is losing games at this point, it's to all NFC teams)
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Dec 11, 2015 05:56
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Kirios posted:Carolina beat Green Bay, Vikings are now at 5 losses. Even if both are 12-4, Carolina wins via head to head, no? According to that dope NYT simulator, the only (and I do mean only) way for Carolina to not have a bye after Arizona's win tonight is: *Panthers lose out *Packers win out *Cardinals lose to Packers, win exactly one of (Eagles, Seahawks)
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Dec 11, 2015 08:42
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guys i made a playoff bracket and its most likely the correct one so theres no need to make anymore
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Dec 11, 2015 12:51
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Chromatic posted:guys i made a playoff bracket and its most likely the correct one so theres no need to make anymore I want to see brackets that lead to a 2015 Saints SB win, not "what's probably going to happen", dammit. 
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Dec 11, 2015 13:10
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Chromatic posted:guys i made a playoff bracket and its most likely the correct one so theres no need to make anymore Atlanta wins another game? Fraudulent.
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Dec 11, 2015 14:22
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ghlbtsk posted:The New York Times has a fairly detailed simulator this year. Wow this thing is insane, and very fun to play around with. And you can copy the link of your scenario to show others. I made some scenarios for some unlikely teams to make the playoffs: AFC Dolphins Ravens Titans Jaguars Raiders NFC Cowboys Lions Bears Saints Falcons Rams 49ers Theoretically there is one for the Chargers, but I have absolutely no idea how to find it. Also here are some ridiculous elimination scenarios: AFC Patriots Bengals Broncos NFC Packers Seahawks Donkwich fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Dec 11, 2015 |
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Dec 11, 2015 17:34
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Donkwich posted:Wow this thing is insane, and very fun to play around with. And you can copy the link of your scenario to show others. I had to use the ESPN one to see why, but they need a strength of victory tiebreaker over KC which they are currently losing badly. Here's a start. They basically need the entire AFC to bend to their will, starting with the Browns and Jaguars winning out. FebrezeNinja fucked around with this message at 03:06 on Dec 14, 2015 |
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Dec 11, 2015 18:50
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That playoff calculator is neat as hell. It's nuts to think that Miami beating New England + random team has the same chance of playoffs than if Miami beats all 3 of their upcoming opponents and drops one to New England.
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Dec 11, 2015 20:25
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ghlbtsk posted:The New York Times has a fairly detailed simulator this year. I. Can't. Stop. Using. This. And guys, I think some of those broad percentages on the front are misleading. Specifically the Buccs - look at that cake schedule. Saints (home), Rams, Bears (home), Panthers in week 17 when the Panthers have locked up #1 seed and send out 3rd stringers. They're like 60% if they can win 3 out of 4 of those. Diqnol fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Dec 11, 2015 |
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Dec 11, 2015 22:18
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BabeLiker90 posted:I. Can't. Stop. Using. This. Seriously, I've spent the best part of an hour seeing how I could get each team in. It's one of those "easier on paper" deals. It makes you believe complete Hail Mary longshots are likely. DID YOU KNOW: The Raiders are a lock for the playoffs and all they have to do is win all the rest of their games, the Chargers beat the Chiefs, the Titans beat the Jets, the Eagles beat the Bills and the Cowboys beat the Jets? THAT COULD TOTALLY HAPPEN. 
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Dec 11, 2015 22:26
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Hijo Del Helmsley posted:Cowboys beat the Jets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WfFC1681Vg
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Dec 11, 2015 22:32
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Phone posting, so no link or image but I came up with a fun scenario where the Colts win the AFCS at 8-8, the Eagles win the NFCE at 7-9 and the Vikings grab the last wildcard spot at 8-8. I'm just sitting here imagining how unwatchable ESPN will be with a 7-9 team hosting an 8-8 team for the playoffs.
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Dec 12, 2015 19:05
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Q_res posted:Phone posting, so no link or image but I came up with a fun scenario where the Colts win the AFCS at 8-8, the Eagles win the NFCE at 7-9 and the Vikings grab the last wildcard spot at 8-8. How would that happen? The Eagles would be the 4 seed so they'll play the 5 not the 6.
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Dec 12, 2015 22:44
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Dammit, you're right of course. I was trying to go off memory and got it backwards.
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Dec 12, 2015 23:18
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fsif posted:If Buffalo can sweep the Jets, I'll be satisfied. Rex would be too, i think. That final Jets game is going to be insanely stressful.
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Dec 13, 2015 01:25
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CBS has an...interesting...scenario:
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Dec 13, 2015 19:01
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If any team is getting free wins for bye weeks, it's New England
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Dec 13, 2015 19:59
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Roflex posted:CBS has an...interesting...scenario: They just know that the Bengals are losing their first playoff game. So, 14-3
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Dec 13, 2015 20:03
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Roflex posted:CBS has an...interesting...scenario: Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose.
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Dec 13, 2015 20:10
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| # ? May 5, 2024 16:58 |
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Chargers, Lions, Ravens, 49ers and Titans eliminated from playoff contention.
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Dec 13, 2015 22:56
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