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C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
Houston's a hard no for reasons people have mentioned, which extend to SMU/UTEP/Texas State/UTSA/Corpus Christi/West Texas A&M/Stone Cold Stephen F. Austin/etc... No other school from Texas is getting in.

Cinci/UConn would seem to be the smarter plays on name recognition, but neither is in a gangbuster market and/or brings more to the table than they take away, unless you're counting Lady Hoop. Splitting the pie two more ways when these two aren't bringing in enough to cover their own asses is economic suicide, and considering that the NCAA will give the Big 12 their precious title game in Jerry World it's unnecessary.

My guess is this is a lot of saber-rattlings done by Oklahoma that will lead to nothing in the short term. The grant of rights is locked up until 2024 and if eight votes are needed to undo it, Texas/Iowa State/K-State are enough to veto any movement. Oklahoma can think as long-term as they want, but the landscape is going to look a lot different in eight years and there may be no more big conference media deals to be had then, or we might finally be onto the Super Conference that'll be anywhere from 12 to 40 teams.

tl:dr don't get your hopes up of anything happening.

edit - to expand on one thing, Texas has all the leverage here. They make the most money with the Longhorn Network and are in no hurry to give it up. They have the Big 12 contract which locks everyone in, and they can point to the four schools who left as not doing as well outside of Texas' loving embrace, as long as you ignore the money A&M is getting from the SEC Network and whatever Nebraska is getting. The only way Texas agrees to expand is if the Big 12 gets constantly left out of the CFP, and we need probably four-five more years of it being a four-team deal before we can call anything a hard trend. If Oklahoma is really saber-rattling for financial concessions to be made, Texas has every reason to call their bluff.

C. Everett Koop fucked around with this message at 07:44 on Jan 20, 2016

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C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
Nebraska also got them to 12 and the conference championship game. Maryland/Rutgers is a straight BTN decision.

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008

Benne posted:

How the gently caress did Texas manage to elect a worse governor/human being than Rick Perry

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
Yes we'd like to leave the financial prosperity and conference stability and financial prosperity and prestige levels and all the goddamn money we make with the Big Ten TV deal to return to the Longhorn Conference and travel to Manhattan, Kansas where do we sign?

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
My scenario:

-Big 12 doesn't expand, or maybe expands, potentially expands. However, the TV networks want an extension of the Grant of Rights without paying any more money, which the power players in the conference don't want. Whether they're 10/12/14 teams, the Big 12 keeps trucking along but the feeling that the end is near remains.

-Big 12 Grant of Rights ends in 2024, Oklahoma leaves for the SEC. Everyone starts whacking the panic button, but the SEC doesn't add anyone else because they're hoping for Texas

-Big Ten adds AAU member Kansas, which adds the second best available brand (Kansas basketball) to it's portfolio. However, they don't add anyone else because they're also hoping for Texas

-Texas is talking to everyone, but they refuse to give up the Longhorn Network, which ends up being a dealbreaker for the Big 10/Pac-12/SEC. However...

-Texas goes to the ACC in everything but football, of which they become an independent. Effectively, they get the Notre Dame deal, which includes rights to Texas football home games that they can either sell or keep for the Longhorn Network, and the ACC/ESPN have first right of refusal if it comes to buying out the LHN, as well as a sharing of content between the two. ACC is now a 16-team basketball conference, 14-team football conference with Notre Dame/Texas playing five games a year against ACC foes and having access to the ACC's bowl package.

-SEC adds Oklahoma State, the biggest available school. Baylor is still down in the basement and TCU isn't seen as necessary for the Dallas-Ft. Worth market. It kinda breaks the handshake agreement that the SEC won't add a school from a state with a pre-existing member, but Oklahoma allows it to happen. Instead of divisions the SEC splits into four pods: Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Texas A&M/Arkansas, Missouri/LSU/Mississippi State/Ole Miss, Alabama/Auburn/Florida/Georgia, Tennessee/Kentucky/Vanderbilt/South Carolina.

-Big Ten adds TCU, for said Dallas-Ft. Worth TV market. There's some grumbling about TCU not being up to the conference's academic standards but the subscription money and regular access to Texas for recruiting outweighs the complaints.

-Pac-12, with no great teams left to grab, elects to hold firm. This angers UCLA and some of the other schools, but without a place to land they don't jump.

-The American grabs the remaining Big 12 schools (Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia) and adds NIU for an 18-member conference. They split into three regions mostly by geography and hope that's enough to take the Big 12's spot as a Power 5 conference.

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008

CaptainYesterday posted:

The Big 12 has a final list of candidates they're interviewing. They are:

-The entire American, minus Tulsa and Navy
-BYU
-Boise State
-Colorado State
-New Mexico
-3 more unidentified schools, so a better question is who is NOT being considered.

NDSU, Wisconsin-Whitewater, Cambridge

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
Considering what they did to Kate Hnida may they lose all their games for a thousand years and more.

C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008
Breaking down that voting because what the hell we still have two days until games are here to be watched:

-Dead in the water are Air Force/Rice (0 votes), UNLV/San Diego State (1 vote), and Arkansas State (4 votes). Interestingly, New Mexico received 7 votes but two vetoes, from the Kansas schools. I'm curious as to how that divide occurred.
-I'm not sure how the vetoes were setup; my gut instinct is that everyone got two vetoes to use as they saw fit, but were under no obligation to use them. It's not a matter of Texas/Oklahoma get two and everyone else got one/none since West Virginia used two, but I doubt we'll find out.
-If the Big 12 does expand, Cincinnati's all but in. Five schools (Kansas/K-St/Oklahoma/Texas/West Virginia) gave their highest votes, and with the two kingmakers voting in approval it's all but clinched. Texas Tech was the only one really not on board but they won't be able to kill the deal if it occurs.
-Houston getting four vetoes (Oklahomas/TCU/Texas) means their hopes are dashed. Yes, Texas supporting Houston in public then stabbing them in the back privately are hilarious but that's texanpolitics.txt for you.
-The next highest vote-getters would be teams moving up. Colorado State (63 votes, including 10s from Iowa State/Oklahoma State) and Northern Illinois (57 votes) don't have universal support, but they don't have any real detractors. CSU's has Kansas/West Virginia not really on board and NIU's support comes from a vast supply of middle votes, and whether that support would continue as voting progressed is key. NIU would be the ultimate "we have to expand just pick anyone we can agree on" compromise, as it's hard to see their selection really expanding the Big 12's influence.
-The schools who want BYU really want them, with 9s and 8s being given. But the four who don't want BYU really don't want them, with Oklahoma State/West Virginia vetoing and Baylor/TCU not voting for them. I think they're done for as well.
-UConn is all over the board, with strong support from Baylor/Kansas but a veto from Texas Tech and a no-vote from Iowa State. Memphis is in the same situation, getting maxed from Tech and no-voted by West Virginia, but no one vetoed them.
-No one else got enough votes to be a factor. It looks like going to 14 is out, and it'd be a struggle to decide who to admit along with Cincinnati to get to 12.
-First place votes: Cincinnati 5(Kansas/Kansas State/Oklahoma/Texas/West Virginia), Colorado State 2(Iowa State/Oklahoma State), UConn (Baylor), Boise State (TCU), Memphis (Texas Tech)
-Vetoes: Houston 4(Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/TCU/Texas), BYU 2(Oklahoma State/West Virginia), East Carolina 2(Kansas/Kansas State), New Mexico 2(Kansas/Kansas State), SMU 2(Oklahoma/Texas), UConn (Texas Tech), Boise State (West Virginia)

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C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008

Intruder posted:

Why not eliminate the entire season and go by preseason rankings, only the CFP games matter

Only the winner of the Crimson-White game should be national champs Pawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

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